nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2014‒06‒22
seven papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment By Pierce, Justin R.; Schott, Peter K.
  2. Migration, local off-farm employment, and agricultural production efficiency: Evidence from China: By Yang, Jin; Wang, Hui; Jin, Songqing; Chen, Kevin Z.; Riedinger, Jeffrey; Chao, Peng
  3. Natural Disasters, Ethnic Diversity, and the Size of Nations: Two Thousand Years of Unification and Division in Historical China By Qiang Chen; ;
  4. Interactions between CNY and CNH Money and Forward Exchange Markets By David Leung; John Fu
  5. Greenhouse gas intensity of three main crops and implications for low-carbon agriculture in China By Wen Wang; Yuebin Lin; Liping Guo; Yingchun Li; Man Su; Christian de Perthuis; Xiaotang Ju; Erda Lin; Dominic Moran
  6. An evaluation of the effectiveness of farmland protection policy in China: By Li, Man
  7. Do export price elasticities support tensions in currency markets? Evidence from China and six OECD countries By Aiello, Francesco; Bonanno, Graziella; Via, Alessia

  1. By: Pierce, Justin R. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Schott, Peter K. (Yale School of Management & NBER)
    Abstract: This paper finds a link between the sharp drop in U.S. manufacturing employment beginning in 2001 and a change in U.S. trade policy that eliminated potential tariff increases on Chinese imports. Industries where the threat of tariff hikes declines the most experience more severe employment losses along with larger increases in the value of imports from China and the number of firms engaged in China-U.S. trade. These results are robust to other potential explanations of the employment loss, and we show that the U.S. employment trends differ from those in the E.U., where there was no change in policy.
    Keywords: Manufacturing; trade policy; uncertainty; offshoring; China; World Trade Organization; supply chains
    Date: 2013–11–01
  2. By: Yang, Jin; Wang, Hui; Jin, Songqing; Chen, Kevin Z.; Riedinger, Jeffrey; Chao, Peng
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of local off-farm employment and migration on rural households’ technical efficiency of crop production using a five-year panel dataset from more than 2,000 households in five Chinese provinces. While there is not much debate about the positive contribution of migration and local off-farm employment to China’s economy, there is an increasing concern about the potential negative effects of moving labor away from agriculture on China’s future food security. This is a critical issue as maintaining self-sufficiency in grain production will be critical for China to feed its huge population in the future.
    Keywords: Migration, labor, cereals, food security, Efficiency, local off-farm,
    Date: 2014
  3. By: Qiang Chen (School of Economics, Shandong University); ;
    Abstract: The size of nations matters, but the literature on the subject is long on theory and short on direct econometric testing. Using a unique time series data set spanning the past two millennia, we study the process of unification and division in historical China. The empirical results are consistent with the theory on the size and number of nations. First, frequent famines reduced the number of nations in China because a larger nation could more efficiently ensure the provision of public goods as the cost of such public goods (e.g., disaster relief) rose. Second,increased ethnic diversity was associated with an increased number of nations because smaller nations could better serve a heterogeneous population. Using both annual and decadal data, these results survive a variety of robustness checks after controlling for nomadic attacks and a rich set of climate variables.
    JEL: O11 N45
    Date: 2014–06
  4. By: David Leung (Hong Kong Monetary Authority); John Fu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: We analysed the interactions between the RMB deliverable forward markets in Mainland China and Hong Kong. In order to broaden our perspective, we reference this to the Eurodollar market from the late 1950s to early 1980s. Our findings suggest that onshore regulations, notably the Regulation Q interest rate ceiling, were effective in containing spillovers between the Eurodollar market and the US domestic market. For the CNH market, we found evidence that cross-market spillovers between the Mainland and CNH markets became two-way in 2013, but were more limited and mostly not significant in earlier years. It was found that onshore-to-offshore spillovers were larger than spillovers in the opposite direction in most cases. This probably reflects the fact that the CNH market, though rapidly growing, is small compared to the Mainland market, and possibly more subject to onshore influences. Looking ahead, the Mainland market is expected to continue to play a leading role in onshore-offshore money and foreign exchange market interactions since these markets will be ultimately dominated by the monetary policy stance of the onshore authorities.
    JEL: F30 G1 G12 G15 Q
    Date: 2014–06
  5. By: Wen Wang; Yuebin Lin; Liping Guo; Yingchun Li; Man Su; Christian de Perthuis; Xiaotang Ju; Erda Lin; Dominic Moran
    Abstract: China faces significant challenges in reconciling food security goals with the objective of becoming a low-carbon economy. Agriculture accounts for approximately 11% of China's national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with cereal production representing a large proportion (about 32%) of agricultural emissions. Minimizing emissions per unit of product is a policy objective and we estimated the GHG intensities (GHGI) of rice, wheat and maize production in China from 1985 to 2010. Results show significant variations of GHGIs among Chinese provinces and regions. Relative to wheat and maize, GHGI of rice production is much higher owing to CH4 emissions, and is more closely related to yield levels. In general, the south and central has been the most carbon intensive region in rice production while the GHGI of wheat production is highest in north and northwest provinces. The southwest has been characterized by the highest maize GHGI but the lowest rice GHGI. Compared to the baseline scenario, a 2% annual reduction in N inputs, combined with improved water management in rice paddies, will mitigate 17% of total GHG emissions from cereal production in 2020 while sustaining the required yield increase to ensure food security. Better management practices will entail additional gains in soil organic carbon further decreasing GHGI. To realize the full mitigation potential while maximizing agriculture development, the design of appropriate policies should accommodate local conditions.
    Keywords: food security, low-carbon agriculture, greenhouse gas intensity, China
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Li, Man
    Abstract: Almost two decades have passed since China first enacted legislation to protect farmland from conversion to nonagricultural use. Yet hundreds of thousands of hectares of agricultural land are still developed to urban area each year, raising the question of whether the legislation is effective in preserving farmland from development. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Basic Farmland Protection Regulation in protecting high-quality farmland from urban development in China in the first decade after it came into effect (1995‒2005).
    Keywords: farmland, rural areas, urban development, Land ownership, Land reform, Land use, Land tenure, urban spatial model, non-nested hypothesis test, farmland protection,
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Aiello, Francesco; Bonanno, Graziella; Via, Alessia
    Abstract: The empirical literature on trade imbalances does not make currency tensions easy to understand, because tensions across traders originate from the assumption that export-price elasticity is high. This paper provides new evidence by analysing the export-behaviour of China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the USA from 1990 to 2012. Estimates of export-price elasticities have been made using panel data techniques for non-stationary data. Long run relationships are stable to any structural break and indicate that exports are heavily dependent on world income, with long run income elasticity significantly higher than unity in many cases (China, Japan, Germany, UK and USA). Conversely, exports are price inelastic for most of the countries in the sample, in both the long and short runs. The exception is France, whose exports in the long run would increase by 2 percent if the country experienced a 1 percent depreciation of its real exchange rate.
    Keywords: Export elasticity, competitive Devaluation, currency wars, panel data
    JEL: C23 F10 F17 F37 P33
    Date: 2014–06–18

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