nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2014‒06‒14
eight papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Ohio State University

  1. Yuan and Roubles: Comparing Wage Determination in Urban China and Russia at the Beginning of the New Millennium By Gustafsson, Björn Anders; Li, Shi; Nivorozhkina, Ludmila; Wan, Haiyuan
  2. The impact of a pay-for-performance scheme on prescription quality in rural China : an impact evaluation By Sun, Xiaojie; Liu, Xiaoyun; Sun, Qiang; Yip, Winnie; Wagstaff, Adam; Meng, Qingyue
  3. The Rise of the “Redback†and the People’s Republic of China’s Capital Account Liberalization : An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Invoicing Currencies By Hiro Ito; Menzie Chinn
  4. The structure and comparative advantages of China's scientific research: Quantitative and qualitative perspectives By Wang L.
  5. Dynamic Transition of the Exchange Rate Regime in the People’s Republic of China By Naoyuki Yoshino; Sahoko Kaji; Tamon Asonuma
  6. The People’s Republic of China’s Financial Markets : Are They Deep and Liquid Enough for Renminbi Internationalization? By Prince Christian Cruz; Yuning Gao; Lei Lei Song
  7. Changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by its accession to WTO and the 2008 financial crisis By Zhichao Guo; Yuanhua Feng; Thomas Gries
  8. Assessment of effectiveness of Chinese aid in competence building and financing development in Sudan By Nour S.

  1. By: Gustafsson, Björn Anders (University of Gothenburg); Li, Shi (Beijing Normal University); Nivorozhkina, Ludmila (Rostov State Economic University); Wan, Haiyuan (National Development and Reform Commission)
    Abstract: Earnings inequality and earnings determination in urban China 2002 and Russia 2003 are compared using samples covering large parts of the two countries. The results from estimated earnings functions are put in perspective of the outcome from a similar comparison made at the end of the 1980s. We confirm that earnings inequality has increased rapidly in both countries and is found to be similar across countries. As at the end of the 1980s, the gender wage gap is larger in Russia where earnings reach a maximum at a lower age than in China. The association between education and income in China has increased to become stronger than in Russia. The earnings penalty of being employed in the public service sector in Russia has increased while the publically employed in China enjoy a positive payoff of limited magnitude.
    Keywords: wages, wage inequality, gender wage gap, China, Russia
    JEL: J16 J31 J45 P23
    Date: 2014–06
  2. By: Sun, Xiaojie; Liu, Xiaoyun; Sun, Qiang; Yip, Winnie; Wagstaff, Adam; Meng, Qingyue
    Abstract: In China, health care providers have traditionally been paid fee-for-service and overprescribing and high out-of-pocket spending are common. In this study, township health centers in two counties were assigned almost randomly to two groups: in one, fee-for-service was replaced by a global capitated budget; in the other, by a mix of global capitated budget and pay-for-performance. Performance captured inter alia"irrational"drug prescribing; 20 percent of the global capitated budget was withheld each quarter, points were deducted for failure to meet targets, and some of the withheld budget was returned in line with the points deducted. Outcomes included appropriate prescribing and prescription cost, data on which were obtained by digitizing prescriptions from a month just before the reform and from the same month a year later. Impacts were assessed via multivariate differences-in-differences with township health center fixed effects. To reduce bias from non-randomness in assignment, the sample was trimmed by coarsened exact matching. Pay-for-performance reduced inappropriate prescribing significantly and substantially in the county where the initial level was above the penalty threshold, but end-line rates were still appreciable; no effects were seen in the county where initial levels were around or below the threshold, or on out-of-pocket spending in either county.
    Keywords: Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Health Systems Development&Reform,Health Law,Disease Control&Prevention,Population Policies
    Date: 2014–05–01
  3. By: Hiro Ito (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Menzie Chinn
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of currency choice for trade invoicing in a cross-country context while focusing on the link between capital account liberalization and its impact on the use of the renminbi (RMB). We find that while countries with more developed financial markets tend to invoice less in the US dollar, countries with more open capital accounts tend to invoice in either the euro or their home currency. These results indicate that financial development and financial openness are among the keys to challenging the US dollar dominance in general, and to internationalizing the RMB for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Our model also suggests that the share of the RMB in export invoicing should have been higher than the actually observed share of less than 10%. The underperformance of RMB export invoicing can be attributed to the inertia in the choice of currency for trade invoicing; once a currency is used for trade invoicing or settlements, it becomes difficult for traders to switch from one currency to another. This same phenomenon was also observed in the cases of the Japanese yen and the euro at their inceptions as international currencies. Our model predicts that the share of RMB invoicing for the PRC’s exports will rise to above 25% in 2015 and above 30% in 2018, whether or not the PRC implements drastic financial liberalization. As the near future path of RMB use is also expected to be inertial, these forecasts are probably at the upper end of the actual path of RMB export invoicing.
    Keywords: Capital account liberalization, renminbi (RMB), PRC, export invoicing currency
    JEL: F32 F41
    Date: 2014–04
  4. By: Wang L. (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: In recent decades there has been a sharp increase in Chinas scientific output. Behind its fast growth, little is known about Chinas comparative advantages in different academic disciplines. Meanwhile, despite Chinas rising position now in second place worldwide for research output, its research quality has been long in dispute. Based on citation rates, many studies expressed negative opinions on the quality of Chinas scientific output. This paper argues that citation reflects more social impact than quality. On the other hand, the time lag between being cited and the eventual publication of citing papers masks the real recent situation in developing countries. In particular prior to 2006, almost half of research papers in China were published in Chinese journals, which were not visible or readable to people outside of China. Consequently, it is not surprising that citation rates of Chinese researchers were rather low. Given that the publication structure in China has changed tremendously in recent years, evaluation of the quality of Chinese science needs to be carried out according to the latest research output from China. This paper examines the comparative advantages of each academic discipline as well as their shifts over the years. Focusing on the top 5 per cent journals by each discipline, we evaluate the quality of Chinas scientific output compared to the rest of the world. Different from the criticism stated in previous literature, this paper finds that the quality of Chinas research in terms of publications in top journals is promising. Since 2006 the growth of scientific publications in China has been driven by papers published in English-language journals. The increasing visibility of Chinese science paves the way for its wider recognition and higher citation rates. Keywords Bibliometrics, Scientometric analysis, Revealed comparative advantage, Publications, Scientific output, Publication quality, Citation, High-impact journals
    Keywords: Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives; Management of Technological Innovation and R&D; Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes; Comparative Studies of Countries;
    JEL: O31 O32 O33 O57
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Naoyuki Yoshino (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Sahoko Kaji; Tamon Asonuma
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the optimal transition of the exchange rate regime in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). How the PRC can successfully reach the desired regime—whether a basket peg or floating regime—from the current dollar-peg regime remains a major question. To answer it, we develop a dynamic small open-economy general equilibrium model. We construct four transition policies toward the basket-peg or floating regime and compare the welfare gains of these policies to those of maintaining the dollar-peg regime. Quantitative analysis using PRC data from Q1 1999 to Q4 2010 leads to two conclusions. First, a gradual adjustment toward a basket-peg regime seems the most appropriate option for the PRC, and would minimize the welfare losses associated with a shift in the exchange rate regime. Second, a sudden shift to a basket peg is the second-best solution. This is preferable to a sudden shift to a floating regime, since it would enable the authorities to implement optimal weights efficiently in order to achieve policy goals once a decision has been made to adopt a basket-peg regime.
    Keywords: exchange rate regime, PRC, China, dollar-peg regime, basket-peg regime, floating regime, general equilibrium model
    JEL: E42 F33 F41 F42
    Date: 2014–04
  6. By: Prince Christian Cruz (Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)); Yuning Gao; Lei Lei Song
    Abstract: Domestic financial market development is a key determinant of a currency’s international status, and financial depth and market liquidity are two essential attributes for an international currency. This paper discusses the status of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) financial markets and their depth and liquidity conditions. The paper also compares the PRC’s financial markets with those in developed and emerging economies, contemporaneously and historically. The paper finds that the PRC’s financial markets are not as deep and liquid as those in developed economies, and are much less so than those with international currencies. To support the internationalization of the renminbi, the PRC needs to remove several major obstacles to deepen its financial markets and improve their liquidity conditions.
    Keywords: financial market, financial development, financial depth, market liquidity, Currency Internationalization
    JEL: E4 E5
    Date: 2014–04
  7. By: Zhichao Guo (Beijing Technology and Business University); Yuanhua Feng (University of Paderborn); Thomas Gries (University of Paderborn)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes of China's agri-food exports to Germany caused by China's accession to WTO and the global financial crisis in a quantitative way. The paper aims to detect structural breaks and compare differences before and after the change points. The structural breaks detection procedures in this paper can be applied to find out two different types of change points, i.e. in the middle and at the end of one time series. Then time series and regression models are used to compare differences of trade relationship before and after the detected change points. The methods can be employed in any economic series and work well in practice. The results indicate that structural breaks in 2002 and 2009 are caused by China's accession to WTO and the financial crisis. Time series and regression models show that the development of China's exports to Germany in agri-food products has different features in different sub-periods. Before 1999, there is no significant relationship between China's exports to Germany and Germany's imports from the world. Between 2002 and 2008 the former depends on the latter very strongly, and China's exports to Germany developed quickly and stably. It decreased however suddenly in 2009, caused by the great reduction of Germany's imports from the world in that year. But China's market share in Germany still had a small gain. Analysis of two categories in agri-food trade also leads to similar conclusions.
    Keywords: Agri-food trade, structural breaks, China's accession to WTO, financial crisis, change of trade relationship financial crisis of 2008, growth causes, structural breaks
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Nour S. (UNU-MERIT)
    Abstract: Assessment of effectiveness of Chinese aid in competence building and financing development in Sudan by S. Nour abstract This paper discusses the effectiveness of Chinese aid for competence building and financing development in Sudan using new primary data at the micro level. We find that Chinese aid and loans to Sudan caused mixed positive-negative impacts. The positive impact is competence building and providing alternative complementary sources of finance to complement domestic capital and financing development projects; the negative impact is increasing Sudanese debts to China. We find that the effectiveness of Chinese aid to Sudan is undermined by offering aid tied to trade, FDI and the importance of oil to the Chinese economy. Despite the global economic crisis, China has continued to offer tied aid to maintain access to oil in Sudan. Despite a long period of economic sanctions, Sudan was able to grow thanks to the robust and increasing intensification of special economic relations with China which relaxed the development finance constraint. From the perspective of new approaches to financing development, our findings imply that even when a country is facing binding political and economic sanctions, it can still proceed with competence building and finance a high growth strategy if it is endowed with natural resources and a partner that is in need of such resources. In addition to aid in the form of financial capital, Chinese aid and development assistance include technical assistance in the form of scholarships for training and education. The outcome of Chinese aid directed towards capacity building in Sudan implies that the majority of scholarships provided for specialization fields of Engineering, followed by Science and related fields, and finally Arts, Social Science and related fields respectively, and provided for PhD degree, followed by MSc degree, research and training respectively over the period 1999-2013. Keywords Competence building; financing development; aid effectiveness; China; Sudan.
    Keywords: Foreign Aid; International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations;
    JEL: F35 O19
    Date: 2014

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