Abstract: |
This paper develops a human capital measure in the sense of Schultz (1960) and
then reevaluates the contribution of human capital to China’s economic growth.
The results indicate that human capital plays a much more important role in
China’s economic growth than available literature suggests, 38.1% of economic
growth over 1978-2008, and even higher for 1999-2008. In addition, because
human capital formation accelerated following the major educational expansion
increases after 1999 (college enrollment in China increased nearly fivefold
between 1997 and 2007) while growth rates of GDP are little changed over the
period after 1999, total factor productivity increases fall if human capital
is used in growth accounting as we suggest. TFP, by our calculations,
contributes 16.92% of growth between 1978 and 2008, but this contribution is
-7.03% between 1999 and 2008. Negative TFP growth along with the high
contribution of physical and human capital to economic growth seem to suggest
that there have been decreased in the efficiency of inputs usage in China or
worsened misallocation of physical and human capital in recent years. These
results underscore the importance of efficient use of human capital, as well
as the volume of human capital creation, in China’s growth strategy. |