Abstract: |
Chinese imports and exports grew rapidly during the first three decades of the
twentieth century as China opened up to global trade. Using a new data set on
the factor-intensity of traded goods at the industry level, we show that
Chinese exports became more unskilled-intensive and imports became more
skill-intensive during these three decades. The exogenous shock of World War I
dramatically raised the price of Chinese exports, increased the demand for
Chinese goods overseas, and increased the demand for unskilled workers
producing these goods. These trends continued even after the war ended. We
show that the timing of the rise in export prices is consistent with the
observed decline in the skill premium in China. The skill-unskilled wage ratio
flattened out during the 1910s and then fell by eight percent during the
1920s. We simulate the price shock of World War I using a general equilibrium
factor-endowments model of trade and find evidence consistent with the
observed fall in the skill premium in China during the 1920s. |