| Abstract: |
Between 1958 and 1961, China experienced one of the worse famines in her
history. Birth rates fell during these years and recovered immediately
afterwards. The famine also adversely affected the health of these cohorts.
This paper provides nonparametric estimates of the total effects of the famine
on the marital behaviour of famine-affected cohorts in the rural areas of
Sichuan and Anhui. These reduced from estimates incorporate general
equilibrium and heterogeneous treatment effects, two important components of
equilibrium marital behaviour. Next, the paper uses a structural model of the
marriage market, the Choo-Siow model, to decompose observed marital outcomes
into quantity and quality effects of the famine. The structural estimates show
that the famine substantially reduced the marital attractiveness of the famine
born cohort. The conclusion is that the small observed changes in marriage
rates of the famine born cohorts are due to a substantial decline in their
marital attractiveness. Controlling for changes in educational attainment does
not change the conclusion. |