| By: |
Zhang, Lijuan;
Rozelle, Scott;
Huang, Jikun;
Dinar, Ariel;
Mendelsohn, Robert;
Wang, Jinxia |
| Abstract: |
Several studies addressing the supply and demand for food in China suggest
that the nation can largely meet its needs in the coming decades. However,
these studies do not consider the effects of climate change. This paper
examines whether near future expected changes in climate are likely to alter
this picture. The authors analyze the effect of temperature and precipitation
on net crop revenues using a cross section consisting of both rainfed and
irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28
provinces, the results of th e Ricardian analysis demonstrate that global
warming is likely to be harmful to China but the impacts are likely to be very
different in each region. The mid latitude region of China may benefit from
warming but the southern and northern regions are likely to be damaged by
warming. More precipitation is beneficial to Chinese farmers except in the wet
southeast. Irrigated and rainfed farmers have similar responses to
precipitation but not to temperature. Warmer temperatures may benefit
irrigated farms but they are likely to harm rainfed farms. Finally, seasonal
effects vary and are offsetting. Although we were able to measure the direct
effect of precipitation and temperature, we could not capture the effects of
change in water flow which will be very important in China. Can China continue
feeding itself if climate changes? Based on the empirical results, the likely
gains realized by some farmers will nearly offset the losses that will occur
to other farmers in China. If future climate scenarios lead to significant
reductions in water, there may be large damages not addressed in this study. |
| Keywords: |
Climate Change,Crops & Crop Management Systems,Global Environment Facility,Common Property Resource Development,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems |
| Date: |
2008–01–01 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4470&r=cna |