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on China |
| By: | Tatom, John |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at interest rate developments in the US and argues that long-term real interest rates are at lows not seen in the past 50 years. It explores competing hypotheses that there is a global saving glut, there is conundrum or that global capital formation has slowed. The dominant view is a glut of saving, especially in China and Asia, that is depressing global real interest rates and boosting growth. While private sector capital formation remains at historic strong levels in the US, the same is not the case abroad. Unfortunately strong saving in China had not resulted in a boom in saving in Asia or globally. A decline in global capital formation is the proximate cause of depressed real interest rates. This is not a cyclical problem that is likely to go away with a rebound in economic activity in Asia or Europe. The implications for economic growth are dismal, despite notable exceptions in China and the US. |
| Keywords: | interest rates; capital formation; saving |
| JEL: | G15 F4 E21 |
| Date: | 2007–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:4113&r=cna |
| By: | Simeon Djankov (the World Bank); Yingyi Qian (UC Berkeley and CERP); Gerard Roland (UC Berkeley and CEPR); Ekaterina Zhuravskaya (New Economic School/CEFIR and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We report the results of a new survey on entrepreneurship in Brazil. In September 2006, we interviewed 400 entrepreneurs and 550 non-entrepreneurs of the same age, gender, education and location in 7 Brazilian cities. The data are used to test three competing hypotheses on entrepreneurship: the role of economic and legal institutions (security of property rights; access to credit); the role of sociological characteristics (family background, social networks); and the role of individual features (attitude towards risk, I.Q., self-confidence) in becoming an entrepreneur. In line with our previous research in China and Russia, we find that sociological characteristics have the strongest influence on becoming an entrepreneur. In contrast, success as an entrepreneur is primarily determined by the individualÃÂâÃÂÃÂÃÂÃÂs smartness and higher education in the family. Entrepreneurs are not more self-confident than non-entrepreneurs; and overconfidence is bad for business success. |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0104&r=cna |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes competing interpretations for the large increases in the hoarding of international reserves by developing countries. While the first phase of the rapid hoarding of reserves in the aftermath of the East Asian crisis has been dominated by self insurance against exposure to foreign shocks, the self insurance motive falls short of explaining the hoarding in Asia in the 2000s. These developments may be a symptom of an emerging new global financial architecture, which is manifested in the proliferation of decentralized and less cooperative arrangements. The emerging financial configuration of developing countries in the aftermath of the 1990s crises has been growing managed exchange rate flexibility, greater monetary independence, and deeper financial integration. Hoarding international reserves is a key ingredient enhancing the stability of this emerging configuration. While not a panacea, international reserves help by providing self insurance against sudden stops; mitigating REER effects of TOT shocks; smoothing overtime the adjustment to shocks by allowing more persistent current account patterns; and possibly even export promotion, though this mercantilist use of reserves remains debatable due to possible coordination issues. Countries following an export oriented growth strategy may end up with competitive hoarding, akin to competitive devaluations. The sheer size of China, and its lower sterilization costs suggests that China may be the winner of a hoarding game. Hoarding international reserves may also be motivated by a desire to deal with vulnerability to internal and external instability, which is magnified by exposure of the banking system to non performing loans. Testing the self insurance and precautionary motives in the context of China may be challenged by a version of the "peso problem." Hoarding international reserves and sterilization have been complementing each other during the last ten years, as developing countries have increased the intensity of both margins. |
| JEL: | F02 F1 F15 F31 F32 F33 F36 F4 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13277&r=cna |
| By: | Deborah L. Swenson |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relationship between multinational firm proximity and the formation of new export connections by private Chinese exporters between 1997 and 2003. The results indicate that growth in the presence of multinational firms is positively associated with the formation of new trade by local Chinese firms. Further exploration suggests that information spillovers may drive this result, as the positive association due to own-industry multinational presence is particularly strong in contexts where information improvements may be the most helpful. Thus, it appears that a growing presence of multinational firms may enhance the export capabilities of local domestic firms. |
| JEL: | F1 F23 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13271&r=cna |
| By: | Yang, H.; Pollitt, M. |
| Abstract: | There are two difficulties in doing an objective evaluation of the performance of decision-making units (DMUs). The first one is how to treat undesirable outputs jointly produced with the desirable outputs, and the second one is how to treat uncontrollable variables, which often capture the impact of the operating environment. Given difficulties in both model construction and data availability, very few published papers simultaneously consider the above two problems. This article attempts to do so by proposing six DEA-based performance evaluation models based on a research sample of the Chinese coal-fired power plants. The finding of this paper not only contributes for the performance measurement methodology, but also has policy implications for the Chinese coal-fired power sector. |
| Keywords: | Data envelopment analysis, performance measurement, technical efficiency, electricity |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:0733&r=cna |