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on China |
| By: | Christopher Edmonds (East-West Center and Department of Economics at the University of Hawaii at Manoa); Sumner J. La Croix (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Yao Li (East-West Center) |
| Abstract: | This paper undertakes a detailed review of the policies that have shaped China's explosion of a global supply of exports, and examines long trend statistics on the evolution of China's trading partners and the goods it trades in the post-reform period. This review notes common characteristics in China's trade experience with those of earlier successful export-based economies of East Asia, such as South Korea and Japan. The survey finds that China's pattern of trade and trading partners are similar to those of more market-based Asian economies, but that the Chinese economy's orientation toward foreign trade is considerably greater than expected for an economy of its size and level of development. The authors argue that China still has a long way to go in terms of its export boom, especially if compared to the experiences of South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. This suggests that China is on track to become one of the world's most formidable trading powers and its export policies and export performance will exert increasing influence on how the global trade regime evolves in the future. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewc:wpaper:wp88&r=cna |
| By: | Deng Quheng (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences); Bjorn Gustafsson (University of Göteborg and IZA Bonn) |
| Abstract: | In China hukou (the household registration system) imposes barriers on permanent migration from rural to urban areas. Using large surveys for 2002, we find that permanent migrants number about 100 million persons and constitute approximately 20 percent of all urban residents. Receiving a long education, being a cadre or becoming an officer in the People’s Liberation Army are important career paths towards urbanisation and permanent migrants are much better-off then their counterparts left behind in rural China. The probability of becoming a permanent migrant is positively related to parental education, belonging to the ethnic majority and the parent’s membership in the Communist Party. At the destination, most permanent migrants are economically well-integrated. They have a higher probability to be working than their urban-born counterparts and those who receive a hukou before age 25 typically earn at least as much as their urban-born counterparts. The exceptions for this are those permanent migrants who receive a hukou after age 25 and people who received their hukou through informal routes. |
| Keywords: | China, hukou, rural-to-urban migration |
| JEL: | J61 O15 P36 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2152&r=cna |
| By: | Horst Siebert |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes China's economic performance in the last 25 years and discusses its prospect for growth in the future. China has enjoyed high annual GDP growth rates of about ten percent in the last 25 years. Exports and investment were the two driving forces of the growth process. FDI plays an important role. However, property rights, a crucial element in transforming a communist society, are far from being clearly developed. Structural issues such as the state-owned firms and the loss-making of the banking industry have to be solved. Monetary policy is complicated by the accumulation of reserves. Major policy issues in the future include the institutional deficit, especially with respect to the rule of law and the lack of democracy. |
| Keywords: | Growth process, FDI, developing countries, transformation, exchange rate policy, property rights, future scenarios |
| JEL: | E2 E4 F10 F43 K |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1278&r=cna |
| By: | John Gibson (University of Waikato); Susan Olivia (University of California, Davis); Scott Rozelle (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether there is a non-linear relationship between income and the private transfers received by households in developing countries. If private transfers are unresponsive to household income, expansion of public social security and other transfer programs is unlikely to crowd out private transfers, contrary to concerns first raised by Barro and Becker. There is little existing evidence for crowding out effects in the literature, but this may be because they have been obscured by methods that ignore non-linearities. If donors switch from altruistic motivations to exchange motivations as recipient income increases, a sharp non-linear relationship between private transfers and income may result. In fact, threshold regression techniques find such non-linearity in the Philippines and after accounting for these there is evidence of serious crowding out, with 30 to 80 percent of private transfers potentially displaced for low-income households [Cox, Hansen and Jimenez 2004, 'How Responsiveare Private Transfers to Income?' Journal of Public Economics]. To see if these non-linear effects occur more widely, semiparametric and threshold regression methods are used to model private transfers in four developing countries - China, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam. The results of our paper suggest that non-linear crowding-out effects are not important features of transfer behaviour in these countries. The transfer derivatives under a variety of assumptions only range between 0 and -0.08. If our results are valid, expansions of public social security to cover the poorest households need not be stymied by offsetting private responses. |
| Keywords: | crowding out; private transfers; social security |
| JEL: | H55 O15 |
| Date: | 2006–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:06/01&r=cna |