nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2006‒02‒12
ten papers chosen by
Zheng Fang
Fudan University

  1. What's So Special About China's Exports? By Rodrik, Dani
  2. Umwelttechnikindustrie - Zukunftsmarkt China By Ruperta Lichtenecker
  3. Real GDP in Pre-War East Asia: A 1934-36 Benchmark Purchasing Power Parity Comparison with the U.S. By Kyoji Fukao; Debin Ma; Tangjun Yuan
  4. Subjective well-being and mortality in Chinese oldest old By Qiang Li
  5. Textile and Apparel: an historical and "glo-cal" perspective. The Italian case from an economic agent's point of view By Michele Tronconi
  6. Are the markets for factories and offices integrated? Evidence from Hong Kong? By Charles Ka Yui Leung; Peiling Wei; Siu Kei Wong
  7. Share Issuing Privatizations in China: Determinants of Public Share Allocation and Underpricing By Qi Quan; Nancy Huyghebaert
  8. Composite Leading Indicators for Major OECD Non-Member Economies: Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russian Federation, South Africa By Olivier Brunet; Ronny Nilsson
  9. The Impact of Aid on Economic Growth in Transition Economies: An Empirical Study By Azeta Cungu; Johan Swinnen
  10. Research Joint Ventures, Licensing, and Industrial Policy By Cuihong Fan; Elmar Wolfstetter

  1. By: Rodrik, Dani
    Abstract: Much more than comparative advantage and free markets have been at play in shaping China's export success. Government policies have helped nurture domestic capabilities in consumer electronics and other advanced areas that would most likely not have developed in their absence. As a result, China has ended up with an export basket that is significantly more sophisticated than what would be normally expected for a country at its income level. This has been an important determinant of China's rapid growth. What matters for China's future growth is not the volume of exports, but whether China will continue to latch on to higher-income products over time.
    Keywords: development; economic growth
    JEL: F1 O4
    Date: 2006–01
  2. By: Ruperta Lichtenecker (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)
    Abstract: China, das Reich der Mitte, ist mit schwerwiegenden Umweltproblemen konfrontiert die hohe Kosten verursachen. Mit der zunehmenden Anwendung der Umwelttechnik kann der Herausforderung diese Problemfelder zu beheben sinnvoll begegnet werden. Die Indikatoren Wirtschaftswachstum, notwendiger Schutz der natürlichen Ressourcen, externe Kosten, politische und institutionelle Faktoren prognostizieren einen stark wachsenden Absatzmarkt für Umwelttechnik in China. Um dieses Marktpotential tatsächlich auszuschöpfen ist es notwendig in China und in Österreich verschiedene Anforderungen zu erfüllen die in diesem Artikel erörtert werden.
    JEL: Q01 Q42 Q53 Q55 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2006–01
  3. By: Kyoji Fukao; Debin Ma; Tangjun Yuan
    Abstract: This article provides estimates of purchasing power parity (PPP) converters for expenditure side GDP of Japan/China and Japan/U.S through a detailed matching of prices for more than 50 types of goods and services in private consumption and about 20 items or sectors for investment and government expenditure. Based on our finding and linking with the earlier studies on the relative price levels of Taiwan and Korea, we derive the mid-1930s benchmark PPP adjusted per capita income of Japan, China, Taiwan and Korea at 31%, 10%, 23%, and 12% of the U.S. level respectively for the mid-1930s. These estimates corrected the consistent downward bias in East Asian income levels based on market exchange rate conversions. While confirming Angus Maddisonfs estimates for China and Taiwan based on the 1990 benchmark back-projection method, they do point to a 23% and 85% overestimate in his comparable figures for Japan and Korea respectively for the mid-1930s period. This article develops a preliminary theoretical and empirical framework to demonstrate the possible source of the biases in the back-projection method. We briefly discuss the implications of our findings on the initial conditions and long-term growth dynamics in East Asia and beyond.
    Date: 2006–01
  4. By: Qiang Li (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)
    Abstract: The present study investigates the relationship between subjective well-being (SWB) and mortality risk, using a large sample (N=7852) from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (age range 80-105) conducted in 2000 and 2002. Initially, we intended to contribute to the understanding of system relations between SWB, mortality risk, and unobserved heterogeneity by treating SWB as an endogenous variable, using a multi-process model. However, failure to identify unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation prevents us from employing this model. Given this limitation, the study examines three issues. First, we argue that the mortality model with duration dependency on the age of the study subjects is specified and that the model with duration dependency on time since the interview is misspecified. Second, we address problems associated with the identification of unobserved heterogeneity in the mortality equation. Third, we examine the association between SWB and mortality risk in the Chinese oldest old as well as the risk pattern by gender, without considering unobserved heterogeneity. We find that SWB is not a significant predictor of mortality risk when we control for socio-demographic characteristics and health status. Health plays a very important role in the relationship between SWB and mortality risk in the oldest old. Gender differences in the predictive pattern of SWB on this risk are negligible in the sample.
    Keywords: China, mortality
    JEL: J1 Z0
    Date: 2005–04
  5. By: Michele Tronconi
    Abstract: What might happen to the Italian Textile and Apparel industry? Does it deserve to survive, even if in a reduced dimension, or is it going to disappear, simply being a piece of our past without a passport to our future? This paper call for debate and reach a better view of a changing industry, starting from a different perspective from the usual one which regards the Textile and Clothing industry as a sunset one for western Europe. With the end of the quota system the Italian industry is facing market disruption produced by the flood of exports from China. Too much, too soon, too cheap. Italian entrepreneurs are over-reacting to this and technological innovation is no longer regarded as an opportunity to cultivate differential competitive advantage. Anti - dumping, tariffs and quotas are considered as controversial issues in the search for a new global balance. To reach this, we shouldn't forget that both structural and strategic aspects are always in action when international competition is concerned. All in all, transparency is very important and could be supported by product traceability. This issue is connected with the difference of standards and the difficulty to make them become a purchasing and innovation driver.
    Date: 2005–09
  6. By: Charles Ka Yui Leung; Peiling Wei; Siu Kei Wong
    Abstract: Due to the relocation of manufacturing facilities from Hong Kong to Mainland China, it is widely believed that some vacant private factories have been used as offices in Hong Kong. Yet there is no direct and systematic evidence to support this speculation. In fact, according to MacGregor and Schwann (2003), industrial and commercial real estate shares some common features. Our research attempts to investigate empirically the price and volume relationship between industrial and commercial real estate, using both aggregate and disaggregate data from the industrial and commercial property markets in Hong Kong. The study was built on the observation that economic restructuring and geographical distance will affect the substitutability (and thus the correlation) of different types of property, and utilizes commonly used time series techniques for analysis. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: aggregation bias, geographical distance, industrial real estate, substitutability
    JEL: G12 L80 R30
    Date: 2006–02
  7. By: Qi Quan; Nancy Huyghebaert
    Abstract: Using data on 451 Chinese privatizations over the period 1994-2002, this paper empirically investigates the firm and stock market characteristics that determine the size of the portion of new shares sold to the general public and underpricing at SIP-time. We find that poor performance and financing constraints, reflected by a low profitability and high leverage, mainly drive public share allocation. Also, the government widens ownership to a larger extent in firms that receive substantial subsidies. By contrast, stock market returns pre-SIP and variables capturing the firm’s growth opportunities do not positively affect public share allocation. Yet, in firms with a low market-to-book ratio, the government is more likely to relinquish its majority stake at SIP-time. The determinants of underpricing further illustrate the uniqueness of SIPs compared to private-firm IPOs. Overall, there is little evidence that information asymmetries regarding firm value influence first-day returns whereas stock market conditions have an impact. After accounting for the endogeneity of the public share allocation decision, we find that the fraction of ownership divested is significantly positively related to underpricing.
    Keywords: privatization; motives for going public; government divestment; underpricing
    JEL: G32 G38
    Date: 2005
  8. By: Olivier Brunet; Ronny Nilsson
    Abstract: The OECD developed a System of Composite Leading indicators for its Member countries in the early 1980's based on the 'growth cycle' approach. Today the OECD compiles composite leading indicators (CLIs) for 23 of its 30 Member countries and it is envisaged to expand country coverage to include all Member countries and the major six OECD non-member economies (NMEs) monitored by the organization in the OECD System of Composite Leading Indicators. The importance of the six major NMEs was considered the first priority and a workshop with participants from the six major NMEs was held at the OECD in Paris in April 2005 to discuss an initial OECD selection of potential leading indicators for the six major NMEs and national suggestions for alternative and/or additional potential leading indicators for calculation of country specific composite leading indicators. The outcomes of this meeting and followup activities undertaken by the OECD in co-operation with the participating national agencies are reflected in the results presented in this final version of the document. The OECD indicator system uses univariate analysis to estimate trend and cycles individually for each component series and then a composite indicator is obtained by aggregation of the resulting de-trended components. Today, statistical techniques based on alternative univariate methods and multivariate analysis are increasingly used in cyclical analysis and some of these techniques are used in this study to supplement the current OECD approach in the selection of leading components and the construction of composite indicators. L’OCDE a développé un système d’indicateurs composites avancés pour ses pays membres au début des années 80 basé sur les "cycles de croissance". Aujourd’hui, l’OCDE calcule les indicateurs composites avancés pour 23 des 30 pays membres et envisage d’étendre la couverture du système des indicateurs composites avancés à tous les pays membres ainsi qu’aux six principales économies non membres suivies par l’Organisation. L’importance des six principales économies non membres est considérée comme prioritaire et un séminaire regroupant ces six principales économies non membres fut organisé au siège de l’OCDE à Paris en avril 2005 afin de discuter d’une première sélection par l’OCDE d’indicateurs avancés potentiels pour les six principales économies non membres et discuter des suggestions des pays pour des indicateurs avancés potentiels alternatifs et/ou supplémentaires pour le calcul des indicateurs composites avancés spécifiques aux pays. Les résultats de cette réunion et les futures activités entreprises par l’OCDE en collaboration avec les agences nationales participantes sont décrits dans la version finale de ce document. Le système des indicateurs composites avancés de l’OCDE utilise une analyse univariée afin d’estimer la tendance et les cycles individuellement pour chaque série composante et ensuite un indicateur composite est obtenu par aggrégation des composantes sans tendance. Aujourd’hui, les techniques statistiques basées sur d’autres méthodes d’analyse univariée ainsi que multivariée sont de plus en plus utilisées en analyse cyclique et certaines de ces techniques sont utilisées dans l’étude afin de compléter l’approche courante de l’OCDE dans la sélection des composantes avancées et dans la construction des indicateurs composites.
    Date: 2006–01–25
  9. By: Azeta Cungu; Johan Swinnen
    Abstract: This paper assesses econometrically the contribution of aid to output growth in a panel of twenty transition countries over nine years (1989-1997). The study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between foreign aid and growth. A second result is that the positive effect of aid seems to be stronger when associated with economic liberalisation. The above findings are important, particularly in light of recent scepticism on the role of aid on developing country economic growth and the recent declining trend in aid commitments from industrialized countries.
    Keywords: economic transition, empirical study, foreign aid, growth, reform.
    JEL: C23 F35
  10. By: Cuihong Fan (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, School of Economics, Guoding Road 777, 200433 Shanghai, China.; Elmar Wolfstetter (Humboldt University at Berlin, Dept. of Economics, Institute of Economic Theory I, Spandauer Str. 1, D–10178 Berlin, Germany.
    Abstract: This paper reconsiders the explanation of R&D subsidies by Spencer and Brander (1983) and others by allowing firms to license their innovations and to pool their R&D investments. We show that in equilibrium R&D joint ventures are formed and licensing occurs in a way that eliminates the strategic benefits of R&D investment in the export oligopoly game. Nevertheless, national governments are driven to subsidize their own national firms in order to increase their strength in the joint venture bargaining game. Therefore, our analysis suggests an alternative explanation of the observed proliferation of R&D subsidies.
    Keywords: patent licensing, industrial organization, R&D subsidies, research joint ventures, innovation policy
    JEL: L13 O34
    Date: 2005–10

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