nep-cna New Economics Papers
on China
Issue of 2005‒12‒09
six papers chosen by
Fang Zheng
Fudan University

  1. Changing Natures of Rural Poverty and New Policy Orientations By Cai Fang; Du Yang
  2. Demographic transition: implications for growth By Cai Fang; Wang Dewen
  3. Italy’s Privatization Process and Its Implications for China By Bernardo Bortolotti
  4. Do the technical indicators reward chartists? A study on the stock markets of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan By Wing-Keung Wong; Jun Du; Terence Tai-Leung Chong
  5. Wake Up and Smell the Ginseng: The Rise of Incremental Innovation in Low-Wage Countries By Puga, Diego; Trefler, Daniel
  6. Inequality-Driven Growth: Unveiling Aggregation Effects in Growth Equations By Pedro H. Albuquerque

  1. By: Cai Fang (CASS-IPLE); Du Yang (CASS-IPLE)
    JEL: O P
    Date: 2005–12–01
  2. By: Cai Fang (CASS-IPLE); Wang Dewen (CASS-IPLE)
    JEL: J
    Date: 2005–12–01
  3. By: Bernardo Bortolotti (University of Turin and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: This report provides an overview of the causes and consequences of the Italian State-owned Enterprises (SOE) reform process. Particularly, it analyzes the symbiotic link between share issue privatization (SIP), i.e. privatization in public equity markets, and financial market development, and shows how the sustained policy of sales has jumpstarted the Italian domestic stock market. Based on the Italian and international experience, the report provides some possible guidelines and policy recommendations in order to achieve the same goal in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
    Keywords: State-owned enterprises, Share issue privatization, Financial development, Italy, China
    JEL: L33 L30 O16 G14
    Date: 2005–09
  4. By: Wing-Keung Wong (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Jun Du (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore); Terence Tai-Leung Chong (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)
    Abstract: This paper studies the profitability of applying technical analysis that signals the entry and exit from the stock market in three Chinese stock markets - the Shanghai, Hong Kong and Taiwan Stock Exchanges. The Simple Moving Average (MA) and its extensions, Exponential MA, Dual MA, Triple MA, MACD and TRIX for both long and short strategies are examined. Applying the trading signals generated by the MA family to the Greater China markets, significantly positive returns are generated, which outperform the buy-and-hold strategy. The cumulative wealth obtained also surpasses that of the buy-and-hold strategy regardless of transaction costs. In addition, we study the performance of the MA family before and after the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis and find that the MA family works well in both sub-periods and in different market conditions of bull runs, bear markets and mixed markets. That technical analysis can forecast the directions of these markets implies that the three China stock markets are not efficient.
    Keywords: Technical analysis, Moving Average, buy-and-hold strategy
    JEL: G1 C0
  5. By: Puga, Diego; Trefler, Daniel
    Abstract: Increasingly, a small number of low-wage countries such as China and India are involved in innovation - not the `big ideas', but the constant incremental innovations needed to stay ahead in business. We provide some evidence of this and develop a model in which there is a transition from old-style product-cycle trade to trade involving incremental innovation in low-wage countries. We explain why levels of involvement in innovation vary across low-wage countries and even across firms in each low-wage country. We then draw out the implications of this for the location of production, trade, capital flows, earnings and living standards.
    Keywords: international trade; low-wage country innovation
    JEL: F1
    Date: 2005–10
  6. By: Pedro H. Albuquerque (Texas A&M International University)
    Abstract: It is well known from nonlinear aggregation theory that distributions play a central role in the determination of aggregate relations. This paper establishes a bridge between the aggregation and the inequality and growth literature by applying a log-linear aggregation method to a simple heterogeneous AK growth model. The aggregation effect is explicitly captured in the growth equation by the changes of the mean logarithmic deviation (MLD or Theil’s second measure) of the income, implying that increases in income inequality may be unambiguously associated with temporary increases in a country’s growth rate, in agreement with the empirical findings of Forbes (AER, 2000). Consequently, empirical studies of the long-run effects of income inequality may suffer from aggregation bias if the temporary effects of the MLD changes are not considered. The accelerated growth episodes observed in Brazil and China demonstrate that the increase in income inequality may have resulted in substantial temporary increases in the aggregate growth rates experienced by those countries.
    Keywords: Inequality, Growth, Income Distribution, Aggregation, Heterogeneity, AK Model, Brazil, China
    JEL: O15 O41 O50
    Date: 2005–11–26

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