nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2019‒05‒13
twenty-two papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Estimation and Updating Methods for Hedonic Valuation By Michael Mayer; Steven C. Bourassa; Martin Hoesli; Donato Flavio Scognamiglio
  2. Integrating a Global Supply Chain Model With a Computable General Equilibrium Model By Peter B. Dixon; Maureen Rimmer
  3. Sources and Preparation of Data Used in HISIM2—CBO’s Health Insurance Simulation Model: Working Paper 2019-04 By Jessica Banthin; Keren Hendel; Ben Hopkins; Geena Kim
  4. Learning from the ?best?: The impact of tax-benefit systems in Africa By Jara Xavier; Bargain Olivier; Kwenda Prudence; Ntuli Miracle
  5. The Economy-Wide Impact of Subsidy Reform: A CGE Analysis By Louise Roos; Philip Adams
  6. Fuel subsidies and income redistribution in Ecuador By Jara Xavier; Varela Marcelo; Lee Po; Montesdeoca Lourdes
  7. Cooperation and evolution of meaning in senders-receivers games By Claude Meidinger
  8. Income redistribution in Latin America: A microsimulation approach By Jara Xavier; Oliva Nicolás; Arancibia Cristina; Dondo Mariana; Macas David; Riella Rebeca; Urraburu Joana; Rodriguez David
  9. Battling Antibiotic Resistance: Can Machine Learning Improve Prescribing? By Michael A. Ribers; Hannes Ullrich
  10. Tax-benefit microsimulation model in developing countries: A feasibility study for an extension of SOUTHMOD in Indonesia By Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
  11. Economic Effects of the USA - China Trade War: CGE Analysis with the GTAP 9.0a Data Base By Enkhbayar Shagdar; Tomoyoshi Nakajima
  12. The distributional impact of structural transformation in rural India: Model-based simulation and case-study evidence By Elbers Chris; Lanjouw Peter
  13. Modelling value-added tax (VAT) in South Africa: Assessing the distributional impact of the recent increase in the VAT rate and options for redress through the benefits system By Pirttilä Jukka; Barnes Helen; Wright Gemma; Noble Michael; Masekesa Faith; Gcabo Rebone; Moche Boitumelo; Steyn Wynnona; Moahlodi Boikhutso
  14. Effects of land market regulation – agent-based simulations of the NASG in Niedersachsen By Heinrich, Florian; Appel, Franziska; Balmann, Alfons
  15. Microsimulation analysis of the impact of indirect tax benefits on income distribution and poverty alleviation in Tanzania: An application of TAZMOD By Asiya Maskaeva; Bochkaeva Zanda; Mmasa Joel; Msafiri Mgeni; Iramba Eric
  16. Climate finance and the restructuring of the oil-gas-coal business model under carbon asset stranding constraints By Julien Chevallier; Stéphane Goutte; Khaled Guesmi
  17. Assessing the quality of the income data used in SAMOD, a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model By Barnes Helen; Wright Gemma; Noble Michael; McLennan David; Masekesa Faith
  18. Simulating the effect on households’ real consumption and poverty of the increase in prices that followed the 2015–16 economic crisis in Mozambique By Salvucci Vincenzo; Santos Ricardo; Mambo Félix; Paris Yonesse
  19. Policy transparency in the public sector: The case of social benefits in Tanzania By Leyaro Vincent; Kisanga Elineema; Wright Gemma; Byaruhanga3 Christine
  20. Computing a Data Dividend By Eric Bax
  21. Decision Making with Machine Learning and ROC Curves By Kai Feng; Han Hong; Ke Tang; Jingyuan Wang
  22. Analysis of Approval Voting in Poisson Games By François Durand; Antonin Macé; Matias Nunez

  1. By: Michael Mayer (Consult AG Bern); Steven C. Bourassa (Florida Atlantic University); Martin Hoesli (University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management (GSEM); Swiss Finance Institute; University of Geneva - Research Center for Statistics; University of Aberdeen - Business School); Donato Flavio Scognamiglio (University of Berne, Institut für Finanzmanagement)
    Abstract: Purpose – We use a large and rich data set consisting of over 123,000 single-family houses sold in Switzerland between 2005 and 2017 to investigate the accuracy and volatility of different methods for estimating and updating hedonic valuation models. Design/methodology/approach – We apply six estimation methods (linear least squares, robust regression, mixed effects regression, random forests, gradient boosting, and neural networks) and two updating methods (moving and extending windows). Findings – The gradient boosting method yields the greatest accuracy while the robust method provides the least volatile predictions. There is a clear trade-off across methods depending on whether the goal is to improve accuracy or avoid volatility. The choice between moving and extending windows has only a modest effect on the results. Originality/value – This paper compares a range of linear and machine learning techniques in the context of moving or extending window scenarios that are used in practice but which have not been considered in prior research. The techniques include robust regression, which has not previously been used in this context. The data updating allows for analysis of the volatility in addition to the accuracy of predictions. The results should prove useful in improving hedonic models used by property tax assessors, mortgage underwriters, valuation firms, and regulatory authorities.
    Keywords: Hedonic models, Appraisal accuracy, Appraisal volatility, Machine learning, Robust regression, Mixed effects models, Random forests, Gradient boosting, Neural networks
    JEL: R31 C45 C53
    Date: 2018–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1876&r=all
  2. By: Peter B. Dixon; Maureen Rimmer
    Abstract: Global supply chain (GSC) trade results from decisions by firms producing final goods to allocate underlying tasks to dedicated facilities in different countries. These decisions create cross-border flows of products at various stages of completion. We demonstrate a divide-and-conquer approach to integrating GSC and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models: the models are solved separately and information is passed between them. A stylized integrated model suggests that by providing low-skilled jobs in developing countries, GSC trade accelerates the transfer of labour out of low-marginal-productivity agriculture in these countries into higher-marginal-productivity manufacturing. At the same time, GSC trade can leave high-income countries having to transfer considerable fractions of their workforce out of manufacturing and into services. After potentially expensive structural adjustment, high-income countries may be left in the long run with no more than a small equilibrium welfare gain or even a loss.
    Keywords: Global supply chain trade computable general equilibrium CSC-CGE integration benefits/costs of GSC
    JEL: F12 C68 C63
    Date: 2019–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-292&r=all
  3. By: Jessica Banthin; Keren Hendel; Ben Hopkins; Geena Kim
    Abstract: CBO’s new health insurance simulation model, HISIM2, is a microsimulation model, meaning that it uses individual-level input data to simulate population behavior. Beginning with the spring 2019 baseline budget projections, CBO completely revamped the way it models consumer and employer behavior; the agency also updated to new sources of individual-level input data. This paper describes the input data and the procedures for adjusting and adding to those data to form the sample used by HISIM2. The new model has been designed to use the Current Population Survey as its main
    JEL: H51 I10 I13 I18
    Date: 2019–04–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:wpaper:55087&r=all
  4. By: Jara Xavier; Bargain Olivier; Kwenda Prudence; Ntuli Miracle
    Abstract: Redistributive systems in Africa are still in their infancy but are constantly expanding in order to finance increasing public spending. This paper aims at characterizing the redistributive potential of six African countries: Ghana, Zambia, Mozambique, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and South Africa.These countries show contrasted situations in terms of income distribution. We assess the role of tax-benefit systems to explain these differences. Using newly developed tax-benefit microsimulations for all six countries, we produce counterfactual simulations whereby the system of the most (least) redistributive country is applied to the population of all other countries.In this way, we can decompose the total country difference in income distribution between the contribution of tax-benefit policies versus the contribution of other factors (market income distributions, demographics, etc.).This analysis contributes to the recent literature on the redistributive role of socio-fiscal policies in developing countries and highlights the role of microsimulation techniques to characterize how different African countries can learn from each other to improve social protection and reduce inequality.
    Keywords: microsimulation,Tax-benefit microsimulation,tax-benefit policy,Inequality,Poverty
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-2&r=all
  5. By: Louise Roos; Philip Adams
    Abstract: Oil prices fell from around $US110 per barrel in 2014 to less than $US50 per barrel at the start of 2017. This put enormous pressure on government budgets within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. The focus of GCC economic policies quickly shifted to fiscal reform, including the removal of domestic subsidies on energy products. In this paper we use a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate the economic impact of the gradual removal of subsidies on refined petroleum and electricity, with specific reference to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Our study shows that removing subsidies eliminates a large distortion in the economy. This improves the efficiency of resource use, so that even though employment and capital in most years fall relative to baseline levels, real GDP rises. In addition, we show that fully-funded compensation payments offset the increases in energy prices, leaving economic welfare of the Saudi-national population little affected. Removing the energy subsidies leads to an improvement in the net volume of trade, while leading to a mixed outcome for industries.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, Energy Subsidies, Trade
    JEL: C68 D58 E63 O53
    Date: 2019–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-293&r=all
  6. By: Jara Xavier; Varela Marcelo; Lee Po; Montesdeoca Lourdes
    Abstract: This paper aims to evaluate the progressivity of different fuel subsidies in Ecuador as well as the budgetary and distributional effects of a potential elimination of such subsidies.Our analysis makes use of ECUAMOD, the tax-benefit microsimulation model for Ecuador, together with representative household microdata from ENIGHUR 2011–12.Our results show that domestic gas subsidy tends to be progressive, whereas gasoline and diesel subsidies tend to be regressive. Our simulations show that eliminating all fuel subsidies would increase poverty and inequality due to the importance of domestic gas subsidy for low-income households. Eliminating only gasoline and diesel subsidies would not impact poverty and inequality, while allowing to reduce government expenditure.We further show that using part of the budget saved from the elimination of fuel subsidies to increase social assistance payments in Ecuador, could be a mechanism to compensate low-income families for their loss following fuel subsidy elimination.
    Keywords: microsimulation,Income distribution,ECUAMOD,Fossil fuel subsidies
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-144&r=all
  7. By: Claude Meidinger (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Whether there is a pre-existing common "language" that ties down the literal meanings of cheap talk messages or not is a distinction plainly important in practice. But it is assumed irrelevant in traditional game theory because it affects neither the payoff structure nor the theoretical possibilities for signaling. And when in experiments the "common-language" assumption is simplicitly implemented, such situations ignore the meta-coordination problem created by communication. Players must coordinate their beliefs on what various messages mean before they can use messages to coordinate on what to do. Using simulations with populations of artificial agents, the paper investigates the way according to which a common meaning can be constituted through a collective process of learning and compares the results thus obtained with those available in some experiments.
    Abstract: Le fait de savoir s'il existe ou non un « langage » commun préexistant qui détermine les significations littérales des messages cheap talk est manifestement important en pratique. Cependant ce fait est considéré comme non pertinent dans la théorie traditionnelle des jeux car il n'affecte ni la structure des gains ni les possibilités théoriques de signaler. Et quand dans les expériences l'hypothèse d'un « langage commun » est implicitement implémentée, de telles situations ignorent le problème de méta-coordination créé par la communication. Les joueurs doivent coordonner leurs croyances sur ce que signifient les différents messages avant d'utiliser les messages pour coordonner leurs actions. A l'aide de simulations au sein de populations d'agents artificiels, ce papier étudie la manière selon laquelle une signification commune de messages peut se constituer dans le cadre d'un processus collectif de learning et compare les résultats obtenus avec ceux résultant d'expériences.
    Keywords: Experimental Economics,Computational Economics,Signaling games,Economie expérimentale,Economie computationnelle,Jeux avec communication
    Date: 2018–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01960762&r=all
  8. By: Jara Xavier; Oliva Nicolás; Arancibia Cristina; Dondo Mariana; Macas David; Riella Rebeca; Urraburu Joana; Rodriguez David
    Abstract: We analyse the effect of taxes and benefits on income distribution of six Latin American countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Uruguay, and Venezuela. Our analysis makes use of tax-benefit microsimulation models based on harmonized household representative survey data and developed within the structure of EUROMOD.The analysis focuses on the relative importance of tax-benefit instruments across countries and on the effect of taxes and benefits on poverty and inequality. The selected countries represent a wide range of cases in terms of the redistributive role of the tax-benefit system with Uruguay providing a large degree of redistribution, whereas the Bolivian system has a very modest role.We further exploit the advantages of our models and perform a simulation exercise whereby the most progressive income tax system of our set of countries is applied to the rest and assess its effect on inequality and revenue.Our paper represents the first study making use of microsimulation techniques to assess the redistributive role of tax-benefit systems in the region in a comparable manner, and highlights the advantages offered by microsimulation models to evaluate the effect of policy reforms aiming to improve social protection in the region.Â
    Keywords: Benefits,EUROMOD,Household surveys,Microsimulation modelling,taxes
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-1&r=all
  9. By: Michael A. Ribers; Hannes Ullrich
    Abstract: Antibiotic resistance constitutes a major health threat. Predicting bacterial causes of infections is key to reducing antibiotic misuse, a leading cause of antibiotic resistance. We combine administrative and microbiological laboratory data from Denmark to train a machine learning algorithm predicting bacterial causes of urinary tract infections. Based on predictions, we develop policies to improve prescribing in primary care, highlighting the relevance of physician expertise and time-variant patient distributions for policy implementation. The proposed policies delay prescriptions for some patients until test results are known and give them instantly to others. We find that machine learning can reduce antibiotic use by 7.42 percent without reducing the number of treated bacterial infections. As Denmark is one of the most conservative countries in terms of antibiotic use, targeting a 30 percent reduction in prescribing by 2020, this result is likely to be a lower bound of what can be achieved elsewhere.
    Keywords: Antibiotic prescribing; prediction policy; machine learning; expert decision-making
    JEL: C10 I11 I18 L38 O38 Q28
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1803&r=all
  10. By: Muttaqien Arip; Sologon Denisa; O'Donoghue Cathal
    Abstract: This study aims to expand the use of tax-benefit microsimulation tools in Indonesia. In particular, it reviews the feasibility of expanding SOUTHMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model being applied in developing countries that was developed based on the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation tool (EUROMOD) framework.First, the study reviews the tax and benefits system in Indonesia, followed by an explanation of possible data set and data requirements for simulation. Two potential sources of data are the fifth round of the Indonesia Family Life Survey and the National Socio-Economic Survey.Despite advantages and disadvantages to each, the results of the feasibility study show that both data sets could support the extension of the microsimulation model. This extension should be adjusted to the conditions of the data. For instance, we can focus on simulating indirect taxes, which are more relevant as they represent one of the core revenue sources in developing countries.
    Keywords: microsimulation,SOUTHMOD,Tax-benefit microsimulation,EUROMOD
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-168&r=all
  11. By: Enkhbayar Shagdar (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA)); Tomoyoshi Nakajima (Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia (ERINA))
    Abstract: An analysis of the economic effects of the ongoing USA-China trade war using the standard CGE Model and GTAP Data Base 9.0a revealed that both parties will be worse-off from this trade friction, having welfare losses and real GDP contractions regardless of international capital mobility status—i.e. whether the capital is internationally mobile or not. Moreover, the results indicated that the negative economic and trade impacts on China would be larger compared to those of the USA. Although, other countries and regions would be better-off having positive changes in their welfare and real GDP, their magnitudes were much lower than losses of the USA and China. Therefore, as a whole, the global economy will be worse-off as a result of this trade war between the world’s two largest economies, the USA and China.
    Keywords: Trade policy, CGE models
    JEL: F13 C68
    Date: 2018–12
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eri:dpaper:1806&r=all
  12. By: Elbers Chris; Lanjouw Peter
    Abstract: The North Indian village of Palanpur has been the subject of close study over a period of six decades from 1957/8 to 2015. Himanshu et al. (2018) have documented the evolution of the village economy over this period in an exhaustive study entitled How Lives Change: Palanpur, India and Development Economics, and point to two distinct, and staggered, drivers of growth and distribution of income.An early period of agricultural intensification associated with the green revolution saw an expansion of irrigation and the introduction of new agricultural technologies, leading to rising incomes accompanied by falling poverty and fairly stable, or even declining, income inequality. Subsequently, from about the mid-1970s onwards, a cumulative process of non-farm diversification took hold, and was accompanied by further growth and poverty decline, but also a significant rise in income inequality.This process of structural transformation is likely to be occurring more broadly in rural India. In this paper, we construct a simple model of a village economy that captures several of the salient elements of the Palanpur economy and society. We show that this basic model is readily able to reproduce the distributional outcomes observed in the village.We suggest that to the extent that there exist other villages in rural India with such features, similar distributional outcomes might be expected. We indicate, further, that while the non-farm diversification phase of the village growth story was accompanied by rising inequality, the counterfactual of no diversification might well have been associated with an even greater increase. We suggest that non-farm diversification has arguably helped to contain growth in inequality and has played a particularly pronounced role in reducing poverty.
    Keywords: non-farm employment,rural diversification,simulation model,Structural transformation,Income inequality,Poverty,Income distribution
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-33&r=all
  13. By: Pirttilä Jukka; Barnes Helen; Wright Gemma; Noble Michael; Masekesa Faith; Gcabo Rebone; Moche Boitumelo; Steyn Wynnona; Moahlodi Boikhutso
    Abstract: Using SAMOD, a tax-benefit microsimulation model for South Africa, this paper examines the joint distributional impact of the increase in the value-added tax (VAT) rate and increases in benefit amounts in 2018. Although poverty and inequality did not increase overall, the poorest still saw a reduction in their purchasing power, as many of those in the lowest decile do not receive any social benefits.The paper then explores the consequences of eliminating zero-rating in VAT and using the generated revenues to finance new social benefits. The results suggest that a policy package of a uniform VAT and an expanded set of social benefits would lead to reduced poverty and inequality in comparison to the current practice of zero rating of some consumption goods in the VAT.The findings demonstrate the superiority of using direct taxes and benefits as opposed to provisions in indirect taxes in achieving redistribution.
    Keywords: microsimulation,Redistribution,value-added tax,Poverty
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-13&r=all
  14. By: Heinrich, Florian; Appel, Franziska; Balmann, Alfons
    Abstract: Governments in several German states discuss or propose land market regulations. In this paper we analyze the proposed land market regulations of the NASG in Niedersachsen with an agent-based approach. Our simulation results show some unexpected effects. While rental prices for arable land increase slower due to the regulations, they increase faster for grassland. The number of small farms decreases because they grow into a larger size class. Regarding farm profits, medium and large sized farms can benefit the most, while very large farms are disadvantaged. Overall, the results show a differentiated picture, as the policy’s desired effects cannot entirely be achieved.
    Keywords: Land Economics/Use
    Date: 2019–03–17
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaa165:288298&r=all
  15. By: Asiya Maskaeva; Bochkaeva Zanda; Mmasa Joel; Msafiri Mgeni; Iramba Eric
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impacts of indirect tax policy reforms on income distribution and poverty in Tanzania by applying a standard static microsimulation model TAZMOD v1.8. The simulations model two indirect tax reforms involving changes to the excise duty and value-added tax rates on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products, and changes to employers’ and employees’ contributions to the National Health Insurance Fund.The results of the first reform find a positive effect on government tax revenue and a neutral effect on income distribution and poverty. The results of the second reform find a positive effect on household income distribution and consumption. The findings show that, despite increasing unequal income distribution, poverty indicators fell.
    Keywords: microsimulation,SOUTHMOD,Tax policy reform,Tax-benefit microsimulation,TAZMOD,Income distribution
    Date: 2019
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-16&r=all
  16. By: Julien Chevallier (LED - Université Paris 8, IPAG Business School); Stéphane Goutte (LED - Université Paris 8, PSB - Paris School of Business); Khaled Guesmi (IPAG Business School, École de gestion Telfer / Université d'Ottawa - Université d'Ottawa)
    Abstract: Oil-gas-coal companies are particularly concerned by the notion of stranded assets, i.e., the fact that known fossil reserves cannot be burnt should limitations on greenhouse gas emissions become more stringent. Those assets can suffer from unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations or conversion to liabilities. This paper simulates the impacts of carbon stranded assets for 17 major oil-gas-coal firms' value until the horizon 2050. The core of the paper is a stochastic model with stopping times that determines by initial conditions (reserves and extraction rates) which companies are left with 'stranded assets.' In the business-as-usual scenario, one-quarter of the Earth's capacity for absorbing emissions will be depleted by 2050. With stringent emissions-curbing policies, an environmental gain of 80% can be achieved. Without a restructuring of their business model, many oil-gas-coal companies stand out from our simulations as being particularly vulnerable to the financial risks of bankruptcies and default events.
    Keywords: Stranded asset,Stochastic process,Monte-Carlo simulations,Climate finance
    Date: 2019–04–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02106113&r=all
  17. By: Barnes Helen; Wright Gemma; Noble Michael; McLennan David; Masekesa Faith
    Abstract: In this paper we explore the income data in two surveys that underpin a South African tax-benefit microsimulation model.The simulated taxes and benefits using each dataset are compared with each other and with administrative data for a common time point. We explore discrepancies between the simulated and administrative data on personal income tax, with reference to the distribution of tax payers and the amount of tax simulated. Both surveys suffer from unit missing or item implausible cases for high income individuals.The paper concludes by highlighting the potential for administrative data to further enhance the quality of the model’s underpinning dataset(s).
    Keywords: data,Income distribution,Tax-benefit microsimulation
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-173&r=all
  18. By: Salvucci Vincenzo; Santos Ricardo; Mambo Félix; Paris Yonesse
    Abstract: Poverty declined substantially in Mozambique between 1996/97 and 2014/15. However, the recent economic crisis, characterized by a significant increase in domestic prices, may have dragged several households into poverty. Using consumer price index and 2014/15 household budged survey data, we calculate that the cost of purchasing a basic basket may have risen between 55 per cent and 70 per cent in the period 2014–2016, and we simulate the impact of the rise in prices on households’ real consumption and poverty rate.We estimate that the national poverty rate may have risen to 55–60 per cent of the population, from 46,1 per cent estimated in 2014/15. The results of our study provide important elements for a more complete assessment of the microeconomic impact of the 2015–16 crisis and for an analysis of households’ vulnerability to sudden prices change. They also inform policymakers about the possible microeconomic impacts of macroeconomic decisions that affect the confidence of international institutions and development partners in the state’s economy and institutions.
    Keywords: price increase,simulation,Poverty,Economic crisis
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-61&r=all
  19. By: Leyaro Vincent; Kisanga Elineema; Wright Gemma; Byaruhanga3 Christine
    Abstract: A well functioning system of public service delivery requires the definition and measurement of eligibility for services to be determined in a transparent and non-discretionary manner.This paper uses the case of the Productive Social Safety Net in mainland Tanzania to explore factors that hinder the achievement of this objective. The eligibility criteria for the Basic Cash Transfer and Variable Cash Transfer benefits are presented, and four aspects of the eligibility criteria are highlighted that compromise transparency: community targeting, the proxy means test, the imposition of conditionalities, and the fluid nature of the eligibility documentation. The issues were encountered during the design phase of a tax and benefit microsimulation model for Tanzania and all pose challenges for policy transparency.The authors argue that there are many ways in which transparency and clarity can be enhanced in relation to social benefit policy design and implementation, and that such improvements will greatly assist the public sector in ensuring that people in Tanzania receive the support they need.
    Keywords: microsimulation,Social assistance,Transparency,community targeting
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2018-50&r=all
  20. By: Eric Bax
    Abstract: Quality data is a fundamental contributor to success in statistics and machine learning. If a statistical assessment or machine learning leads to decisions that create value, data contributors may want a share of that value. This paper presents methods to assess the value of individual data samples, and of sets of samples, to apportion value among different data contributors. We use Shapley values for individual samples and Owen values for combined samples, and show that these values can be computed in polynomial time in spite of their definitions having numbers of terms that are exponential in the number of samples.
    Date: 2019–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1905.01805&r=all
  21. By: Kai Feng; Han Hong; Ke Tang; Jingyuan Wang
    Abstract: The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve is a representation of the statistical information discovered in binary classification problems and is a key concept in machine learning and data science. This paper studies the statistical properties of ROC curves and its implication on model selection. We analyze the implications of different models of incentive heterogeneity and information asymmetry on the relation between human decisions and the ROC curves. Our theoretical discussion is illustrated in the context of a large data set of pregnancy outcomes and doctor diagnosis from the Pre-Pregnancy Checkups of reproductive age couples in Henan Province provided by the Chinese Ministry of Health.
    Date: 2019–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1905.02810&r=all
  22. By: François Durand (Nokia Bell Labs [Espoo], LINCS - Laboratory of Information, Network and Communication Sciences - Inria - Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique - Institut Mines-Télécom [Paris] - SU - Sorbonne Université); Antonin Macé (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - La plante et son environnement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INA P-G - Institut National Agronomique Paris-Grignon - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique); Matias Nunez (LAMSADE - Laboratoire d'analyse et modélisation de systèmes pour l'aide à la décision - Université Paris-Dauphine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We analyze Approval Voting in Poisson games endowing voters with private values over three candidates. We firsts how that any stable equilibrium is discriminatory: one candidate is commonly regarded as out of contention. We fully characterize stable equilibria and divide them into two classes. In direct equilibria, best responses depend only on ordinal preferences. In indirect equilibria, preference intensities matter. Counter-intuitively, any stable equilibrium violates the ordering conditions, a set of belief restrictions used to derive early results in the literature. We finally use Monte-Carlo simulations to estimate the prevalence of the different sorts of equilibria and their likelihood to elect a Condorcet winner.
    Keywords: Approval voting,Poisson games,Stable equilibria,Monte-Carlo simulations
    Date: 2019–03
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02049865&r=all

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