nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2018‒11‒12
twenty-one papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Agent- based model of intra-day financial markets dynamics By Jacopo Staccioli; Mauro Napoletano
  2. Systemic Financial Risk Indicators and Securitised Assets: an Agent-Based Framework By Mazzocchetti, Andrea; Lauretta, Eliana; Raberto, Marco; Teglio, Andrea; Cincotti, Silvano
  3. Assessing the full distribution of greenhouse gas emissions from crop, livestock and commercial forestry plantations in Brazil's Southern Amazon By Carauta, M.; Guzman-Bustamante, I.; Meurer, K.; Hampf, A.; Troost, C.; Rodrigues, R.; Berger, T.
  4. RIOTs in Germany – Constructing an interregional input-output table for Germany By Oliver Krebs
  5. Melitz in GTAP Made Easy: The A2M Conversion Method and Result Interpretation By P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
  6. Forecasting of Jump Arrivals in Stock Prices: New Attention-based Network Architecture using Limit Order Book Data By Milla M\"akinen; Juho Kanniainen; Moncef Gabbouj; Alexandros Iosifidis
  7. Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics By Gulan, Adam
  8. Parameter Optimization for Extremum Seeking Control of Antilock Braking System By Esref Bogar; Selami Beyhan
  9. The Effectiveness of Investment Stimulus Policies in Australia By J.M. Dixon; J. Nassios
  10. Climate change impacts and vulnerability of fallow-chickpea based farm households in India: Assessment using Integrated modeling approach By Nedumaran, S.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Srigiri, S.R.; Roberto, V.; McDermid, S.
  11. A Fresh Look at Fiscal Redistribution and Inequality in the US across Electoral Cycles By Sala, Hector
  12. An agent based early warning indicator for financial market instability By David Vidal-Tomás; Simone Alfarano
  13. The economics of multiple interventions to achieve holistic outcomes: Pilot evidence from Ethiopia By Kassie, M.; Ledermann, S.; Diiro, G.; Tefera, T.; Ballo, S.; Belayhun, L.
  14. Regional and Sectoral Impacts of Water Redline Policy in China: Results from an Integrated Regional CGE Water Model By Zhang, Y.; Chen, K.; Zhu, T.
  15. Opinion Dynamics via Search Engines (and other Algorithmic Gatekeepers) By Fabrizio Germano; Francesco Sobbrio
  16. The debunking the granular origins of aggregate fluctuations : from real business cycles back to Keynes By Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini; Tania Treibich
  17. Attitudes Toward Climate Policies in a Macrodynamic Model of the Economy By Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Serena Sordi
  18. Forecasting Changes of Economic Inequality: A Boosting Approach By Christian Pierdzioch; Rangan Gupta; Hossein Hassani; Emmanuel Silva
  19. Shared Mobility Simulations for Dublin By ITF
  20. Creating a labor-market module for USAGE-TERM: illustrative application, theory and data By P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
  21. SinoTERM365, Bottom-up Representation of China at the Prefectural Level By Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge

  1. By: Jacopo Staccioli (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna); Mauro Napoletano (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: We build an agent-based model of a financial market that is able to jointly reproduce many of the stylized facts at different time-scales. These include properties related to returns (leptokurtosis, absence of linear autocorrelation, volatility clustering), trading volumes (volume clustering, correlation between volume and volatility), and timing of trades (number of price changes, autocorrelation of durations between subsequent trades, heavy tail in their distribution, order-side clustering). With respect to previous contributions we introduce a strict event scheduling borrowed from the EURONEXT exchange, and an endogenous rule for traders participation. We show that such a rule is crucial to match stylized facts.
    Keywords: Intra-day financial dynamics; Stylized facts; Agent-based artificial stock markets; Market microstructure; High frequency trading
    JEL: C63 E12 E22 E32 O4
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5mqflt6amg8gab4rlqn6sbko4b&r=cmp
  2. By: Mazzocchetti, Andrea; Lauretta, Eliana; Raberto, Marco; Teglio, Andrea; Cincotti, Silvano
    Abstract: The paper presents an agent-based model of a credit economy which includes a securitisation process and a bailout mechanism for banks' bankruptcies. Within this model's framework banks are able to sell mortgages to a Financial Vehicle Corporation, which finances its activity by creating Mortgage-Backed Securities and selling them to a mutual fund. In turn, the mutual fund collects liquidity by selling shares to households and remunerating them with a monthly interest rate. The impact of this mechanism is analysed by means of computational experiments for different levels of securitisation propensities of banks. Furthermore, we study a set of systemic risk indicators which have the aim to assess financial imbalances within the financial system. Two of them are the mortgage-to-GDP ratio and the Capital Adequacy Ratio which are constructed to detect only the in-balance sheet changes in banks' credit exposure. We consider two additional indicators, similar to the previous ones with the only difference that they are able to account also for the off-balance sheet items. Moreover, we introduce a novel indicator, the so-called VUC indicator, which also targets the off-balance assets. Results confirm that higher securitisation propensities weaken the financial stability of banks with relevant effects on different sectors of the economy. Most important, the analysis of systemic risk reveals the important issue of designing suitable systemic risk indicators for predicting incoming financial crises, finding that an essential feature of these indicators should be to integrate banks' off-balance sheet assets.
    Keywords: sytemic financial risk indicators, securitisation, housing market, agent-based models
    JEL: C63 G21 G23 R31
    Date: 2018–10–24
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89779&r=cmp
  3. By: Carauta, M.; Guzman-Bustamante, I.; Meurer, K.; Hampf, A.; Troost, C.; Rodrigues, R.; Berger, T.
    Abstract: This study focuses on evaluating the full distribution of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to agricultural land-use change in Mato Grosso, Brazil, both from a farmer and policy perspective. By combining three simulation models as well as data from field experiments, we present a novel Integrated Assessment approach that evaluates a large set of production systems, management practices, technologies, climatic conditions, and soil types with very high spatial resolution. The main component of our application is a multi-agent mathematical programming simulator that links socio-economic and biophysical constraints at farm-level and, hence, simulates farmer decision-making and policy response. We estimate the GHG emissions related to the full range of farm production systems and sources, such as inputs, machinery production, diesel consumption, soil processes, land use change (soil organic carbon and carbon stock from vegetation) and enteric fermentation. The results of our simulations indicate that GHG emissions in Mato Grosso are very sensitive to alternative land use change scenarios. The largest source of GHG emissions from crop and eucalyptus production is the use of farming inputs, while for cattle production it is the emission from enteric fermentation. Final simulation results regarding farmer policy response will be presented at the ICAE conference. Acknowledgement : This research was financed by the CarBioCial project of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. We thankfully acknowledge the scholarships awarded by the Brazilian Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) [grant number BEX-10421/14-9]. We are grateful to Embrapa Agrossilvipastoril and IMEA for the technical materials and knowledge provided. Special thanks to Eric B necke and Uwe Franko for their support on the parameterization of CANDY simulations. The simulation experiments were performed using the computational resources of bwUniCluster funded by the Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts and the Universities of the State of Baden-W rttemberg, Germany.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277118&r=cmp
  4. By: Oliver Krebs
    Abstract: Despite their importance, little is known about the spatial structure of trade and production networks within Germany and their connection to the international markets. The lack of data is problematic for regional analysis of aggregate shocks such as trade agreements and to analyze network effects of regional policies. This paper takes an in-depth look at this German production structure and trade network at the county level based on a unique data set of county level trade. I find a surprisingly vast heterogeneity with respect to specialization, agglomeration and trade partners. The paper subsequently shows how to adapt recent advances in regionalization of input-output tables to derive an interregional input output table for 402 German counties and 26 foreign partners for 17 sectors that is cell-by-cell compatible with the WIOD tables for national aggregates and can be used for impact analysis and CGE model calibration.
    Keywords: Germany, regional trade, input-output tables, proportionality
    JEL: R15 R12 F17
    Date: 2018–11
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:182_krebs&r=cmp
  5. By: P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
    Abstract: Since the 1970s the Armington approach has been the workhorse specification of trade in CGE models. Under Armington, agents substitute between products from different countries. Conceptually, Melitz provides a more attractive approach in which substitution is between products from different firms, rather than countries. Other attractive features of Melitz are allowance for: monopolistic competition; and economies of scale from fixed establishment costs for firms and fixed set-up costs on trade links. In this paper we show how an Armington model can be converted to Melitz by adding a few equations and introducing closure swaps, with little change to existing code. We apply our Armington-to-Melitz method to the Armington-based GTAP model to derive GTAP-A2M. Then we show how results from a CGE model with Melitz industries can be interpreted and justified via back-of-the-envelope calculations. Finally, we review the strengths and weaknesses of GTAP-HET, an alternative Melitz-based version of GTAP.
    Keywords: heterogeneous firms Armington to Melitz GTAP-A2M GTAP-HET result interpretation
    JEL: C68 D58 F12
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-284&r=cmp
  6. By: Milla M\"akinen; Juho Kanniainen; Moncef Gabbouj; Alexandros Iosifidis
    Abstract: The existing literature provides evidence that limit order book data can be used to predict short-term price movements in stock markets. This paper proposes a new neural network architecture for predicting return jump arrivals in equity markets with high-frequency limit order book data. This new architecture, based on Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory with Attention, is introduced to apply time series representation learning with memory and to focus the prediction attention on the most important features to improve performance. The data set consists of order book data on five liquid U.S. stocks. The use of the attention mechanism makes it possible to analyze the importance of the inclusion limit order book data and other input variables. By using this mechanism, we provide evidence that the use of limit order book data was found to improve the performance of the proposed model in jump prediction, either clearly or marginally, depending on the underlying stock. This suggests that path-dependence in limit order book markets is a stock specific feature. Moreover, we find that the proposed approach with an attention mechanism outperforms the multi-layer perceptron network as well as the convolutional neural network and Long Short-Term memory model.
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1810.10845&r=cmp
  7. By: Gulan, Adam
    Abstract: Since the Global Financial Crisis, academic economists and policymakers have had to deal with uncomfortable questions about the quality of their models and the state of macroeconomics as a profession. This note offers a summary of this discussion, focusing on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and its underpinnings. This class of models reflects both theoretical advances and perennial modeling challenges. While DSGE modeling developed in times of scarce micro data and limited computational resources, it has much room for improvement given progress along these dimensions and advances in other branches of economics. Key tasks on the to-do-list for model improvement include the modeling on the financial sector, departures from the representative agent and rationality, as well as clarification of the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. The framework is likely to remain a major research and policy tool, although its limitations call for greater robustness, validation and open recognition of uncertainty in drawing real-life quantitative conclusions.
    JEL: B22 E13
    Date: 2018–11–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2018_022&r=cmp
  8. By: Esref Bogar (Pamukkale University); Selami Beyhan (Pamukkale University)
    Abstract: This paper presents a parameter tuned Extremum Seeking Control (ESC) which is utilized for control of antilock breaking system (ABS). Extremum seeking control (ESC) is a purely based on output feedback without the need for a plant model. However, the design challenge of ESC lies in deciding the values of the amplitude of the perturbation signal, the frequency of the perturbation signal, the cut-off frequency of the high-pass filter, the cut-off frequency of the low-pass filter and the integrator gain. In the present paper, the filter parameters are optimized based on the well-known meta-heuristic optimization algorithms such as Jaya Algorithm (JA), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Sine-Cosine Optimization Algorithm (SCA) and Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm (PSO). The designed ESC controllers are applied to control of antilock breaking system for possible performance comparisons.
    Keywords: Extremum Seeking Control, Optimization, Antilock Braking System, Metaheuristics
    JEL: C61
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:8209688&r=cmp
  9. By: J.M. Dixon; J. Nassios
    Abstract: We present the results of three economic modelling simulations of changes to tax policy intended to stimulate investment in Australia. We begin with a comparison of a company tax cut and an investment subsidy, both unfunded and calibrated to yield equivalent Federal Government budget impacts. Our key findings (summarised below) illustrate that an investment subsidy is a more effective policy instrument for stimulating investment and improving domestic welfare: 1. With both policies calibrated to the same budgetary cost, the investment subsidy is more effective in raising the volume of investment; 2. The investment response to a company tax cut is skewed towards foreign investors, while the investment response to an investment subsidy is equitably proportioned across foreign and local investors; 3. The company tax cut induces an increase in net foreign liabilities and associated servicing costs while the investment subsidy has little long-term effect on net foreign liabilities; 4. Both policies lead to increases in gross domestic product (GDP), employment and real pre-tax wages; and 5. The impact on gross national income (GNI), an indicator of domestic material welfare, is positive for the investment subsidy but not for the company tax rate cut. In a final simulation, we revisit the investment subsidy to assess the net impact when the policy is fully funded. While many potential funding models exist, herein we assume partial funding via the denial of cash refunds of franking credits, with the remainder of the funding sourced via a small increase in economy-wide average personal income tax. We find that the investment subsidy still leads to a long-term gain in domestic welfare. When fully funded in this manner: 6. The investment response remains positive but skewed toward foreign investors; 7. Net foreign liabilities fall as a proportion of GNI; 8. The investment subsidy still returns positive results for employment, GDP and the real pre-tax wage; 9. The long-term gain in real post-tax wages is lower than in the unfunded case, but it remains positive; and 10. Fully funded, the investment subsidy still leads to a long-term gain in GNI. Based on these results, we strongly recommend that policy-makers consider an investment subsidy instead of a cut to company tax as a better value-for-money policy initiative to increase both investment and domestic material welfare.
    Keywords: Company tax, investment subsidy, CGE modelling
    JEL: H2 O16 E22 C68
    Date: 2018–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-282&r=cmp
  10. By: Nedumaran, S.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Srigiri, S.R.; Roberto, V.; McDermid, S.
    Abstract: The rainfed farming in India is characterized by low productivity, frequent weather variability, policy bias, poor market and infrastructure and degraded natural resources, which leads to low farm income and farm households vulnerability. Along with these challenges, changing climate and socio-economic conditions in the future are serious threat to the rainfed farming and household farm profitability. In this paper we use the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment (RIA) methods which integrates climate, crop and economic modeling to assess potential impacts of climate change on economic vulnerability of farm households, average farm net returns and poverty in semi-arid region of Andhra Pradesh, India. This study used the socio-economic data from representative household survey, together with down-scaled climate data, site-specific crop model simulations. The simulation results shows that the majority of fallow-chickpea based farm households are vulnerable (68% in warmer climate and 42% in wet climate) to climate change if current production systems are used in the future. Vulnerability is not uniform across the Kurnool district and climate impacts vary across climate scenarios. Therefore, development and promotion of location specific adaptation strategies linking technologies, policies and infrastructure is need to improve the resilience and adaptive capacity of farm rainfed farm households to climate change. Acknowledgement : This research was funded by Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AGMIP, www.agmip.org) and acknowledge for the contribution on the methodology. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do not necessarily reflect those of ICRISAT or CGIAR.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277100&r=cmp
  11. By: Sala, Hector (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: The evolution of the ratio of direct taxation (characterized by progressive rates) over indirect and payroll taxation (characterized by flat rates) is examined together with its distributional consequences for the Bottom 50%, Middle 40% and Top 10% shares of income. Oscillations of this ratio coincide with the US electoral cycles since the 1960s. We show that periods in which this ratio increases coincide with those in which Democrats rule the government and there is more redistribution from the rich (the Top 10%) to the rest of the population. Conversely, periods in which this ratio falls and Republicans hold the power are characterized by a fall in the ratio and less redistribution from the rich to the rest of the population. Based on a set of counterfactual simulations, we hypothesize that the rich, as informed economic agents, are able to protect themselves against tighter fiscal conditions, thereby curtailing the redistributive effects of enhanced tax progressivity.
    Keywords: electoral cycles, tax composition, income distribution, tax progressivity
    JEL: H20 H31 E25
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11839&r=cmp
  12. By: David Vidal-Tomás (LEE & Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón-Spain); Simone Alfarano (LEE & Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón-Spain)
    Abstract: Inspired by the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Breath Rule, we propose an investor sentiment index based on the collective movement of stock prices in a given market. We show that the time evolution of the sentiment index can be reasonably described by the herding model proposed by Kirman on his seminal paper “Ants, rationality and recruitment” (Kirman, 1993). The correspondence between the index and the model allows us to easily estimate its parameters. Based on the model and the empirical evolution of the sentiment index, we propose an early warning indicator able to identify optimistic and pessimistic phases of the market. As a result, investors and policymakers can set different strategies anticipating financial market instability. The former, reducing the risk of their portfolio, and the latter, setting more efficient policies to avoid the effect of financial crashes on the real economy. The validity of our results is supported by means of a robustness analysis showing the application of the early warning indicator in eight different stock markets.
    Keywords: Herding behaviour, Kirman model, Financial market
    JEL: G10 C61 D84
    Date: 2018
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jau:wpaper:2018/12&r=cmp
  13. By: Kassie, M.; Ledermann, S.; Diiro, G.; Tefera, T.; Ballo, S.; Belayhun, L.
    Abstract: The growth and development of many African countries is restricted by human, livestock, and crop health related constraints. For instance, Trypanosomiasis affects both humans and livestock, malaria remains a public health burden, and crop pests such as cereal stemborers cause huge yield losses. Solutions that address several of these constraints can make a significant contribution to the economic development of Africa. This paper examines the economic implication of four ecological interventions introduced in a pilot study in rural Ethiopia to control Trypanosomiasis, malaria and stemborers, in addition to livelihood diversifications and income generation via an additional beekeeping intervention. We develop a multi-period linear programming model to analyze the economic implication of these interventions both individually and in combination using the objective function. Our model simulation results demonstrate that all interventions individually substantially increase discounted net income and resources productivity by 11 to 94 percent compared to the baseline farming system. However the cumulative impact achieved was 33 percent larger when the interventions are introduced jointly, suggesting synergetic benefits of interventions. Our results hence support an integrated approach to development and provide important insights for development practitioners and policymakers alike to break the silos per the United Nations Agenda 2030. Acknowledgement : This work was supported with co-funding from Biovision Foundation, Switzerland, and core financial support provided to icipe by aid from the UK government.
    Keywords: Health Economics and Policy
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277526&r=cmp
  14. By: Zhang, Y.; Chen, K.; Zhu, T.
    Abstract: China has started to implement the most stringent of Three Red Lines water policy since 2012, which sets targets for total water use, water use efficiency, and water quality for a number of benchmark years to 2030 by province and prefecture. This paper aims to develop an integrated regional CGE and water resource model at river basin-provincial level for China and to quantify regional and sectoral economic impacts of three red lines. Five policy scenarios are constructed to assess the impacts of water red lines, including the red line of total water use cap, irrigation efficiency, industrial water use intensity, surface water pollution and all redlines combined. The red line of total water use cap will increase water shortage drastically, leading to considerable negative impacts on the economic growth of East, South Central and Southwest. The sectors with the higher water use intensity such as machinery and equipment, metal and metal products, chemical products and non-metal products are affected most. Other two red lines need to go hand in hand to minimize water shortage and mitigate potentially negative economic impacts. Establishing regional water use right market and promoting economic restructuring are two policy options to cope with water scarcity challenge. Acknowledgement : We would like to acknowledge Winston Yu from the World Bank for the guidance and Shuzhong Gu from Development Research Center of the State Council (DRC) for his valuable comments in the early stage of the research. We are grateful to Xinshen Diao and James Thurlow from International Food Policy Research Institute for their guidance on developing regional CGE model. We acknowledge funding support by the World bank through the project Mind the Gap: Balancing Growth and Water Security in China , and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant No.71761147004) ,the Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program (ASTIP-IAED-2017-04?
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy
    Date: 2018–07
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae18:277509&r=cmp
  15. By: Fabrizio Germano; Francesco Sobbrio
    Abstract: Ranking algorithms are the information gatekeepers of the Internet era. We develop a stylized model to study the effects of ranking algorithms on opinion dynamics. We consider a search engine that uses an algorithm based on popularity and on personalization. We find that popularity-based rankings generate an advantage of the fewer effect: fewer websites reporting a given signal attract relatively more traffic overall. This highlights a novel, ranking-driven channel that explains the diffusion of misinformation, as websites reporting incorrect information may attract an amplified amount of traffic precisely because they are few. Furthermore, when individuals provide sufficiently positive feedback to the ranking algorithm, popularity-based rankings tend to aggregate information while personalization acts in the opposite direction.
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1810.06973&r=cmp
  16. By: Giovanni Dosi (Laboratory of Economics and Management); Mauro Napoletano (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Andrea Roventini (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM)); Tania Treibich (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: In this work we study the granular origins of business cycles and their possible underlying drivers. As shown by Gabaix (2011), the skewed nature of firm size distributions implies that idiosyncratic (and independent) firm-level shocks may account for a significant portion of aggregate volatility. Yet, we question the original view grounded on “supply granularity”, as proxied by productivity growth shocks – in line with the Real Business Cycle framework–, and we provide empirical evidence of a “demand granularity”, based on investment growth shocks instead. The role of demand in explaining aggregate fluctuations is further corroborated by means of a macroeconomic Agent-Based Model of the “Schumpeter meeting Keynes” family (Dosi et al., 2015). Indeed, the investigation of the possible microfoundation of RBC has led us to the identification of a sort of microfounded Keynesian multiplier.
    Keywords: Business cycles; Granular residual; Granularity hypothesis; Agent-based model; Firm dynamics; Productivity growth; Investment growth
    JEL: C63 E12 E22 E32 O4
    Date: 2018–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/21q7rlmakq8ca9c6o2imhini9d&r=cmp
  17. By: Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Serena Sordi
    Abstract: In a recent article published in Ecological Economics, Guarini and Porcile (2016) expanded the Balance-of-Payments Constraint (BoPC) growth model in order to address the challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions suggesting a way in which environmental variables can be included in the structure of this family of models. Building on their set up, we incorporate how people with di¤erent environmental attitudes or sentiments influence each other and contribute to the design of environmental policies. We detail the concept of transition probabilities for the agent's switching from pro- to anti-enviromental positions and vice-versa and discuss the macroeconomic results that follow. Numerical simulations allow us to investigate in more detail the implications of the validity of Porter's hypothesis as well as decoupling conditions.
    Keywords: Sustainability, Open economy, Environmental innovation, Porter's hypothesis, Thirwall's Law.
    JEL: E12 F43 Q55 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2018–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:784&r=cmp
  18. By: Christian Pierdzioch (Department of Economics, Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, Germany); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Hossein Hassani (Research Institute for Energy Management and Planning, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran); Emmanuel Silva (Fashion Business School, London College of Fashion, University of the Arts London, 272 High Holborn, London, WC1V 7EY)
    Abstract: We use a boosting algorithm to forecast changes in three income- and three consumption-based inequality measures. We study quarterly UK data covering the period from 1975Q1 to 2016Q1. We find that the boosted forecasting models, at forecasting horizons of up to one year, have predictive value for changes in the six different inequality measures. Evidence of predictability is strong when we use information criteria that result in relatively parsimonious forecasting models. In addition to lagged inequality measures, stock-market developments and fiscal deficits and, for the consumption-based inequality measures at a forecast horizon of four quarters, economic policy uncertainty and output growth turn out to be relatively important predictors.
    Keywords: Inequality, Predictability, Boosting, UK data
    JEL: C53 D63
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201868&r=cmp
  19. By: ITF
    Abstract: This report examines how new shared mobility services could change mobility in Ireland’s Greater Dublin Area. Simulations of eleven different shared transport scenarios show how such services could affect congestion, CO2 emissions and the use of public space. They also examine how such solutions might impact service quality, the cost of mobility, citizens’ access to opportunities and their use of public transport. The findings provide decision makers with evidence to properly weigh opportunities and challenges created by new forms of shared transport. The work is part of a series of studies on shared mobility in different urban and metropolitan contexts.
    Date: 2018–10–05
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:58-en&r=cmp
  20. By: P.B. Dixon; M.T. Rimmer
    Abstract: This paper documents a project carried out under contract with the U.S. Department of Commerce. As stated in the contract, the aim was to: "provide the means to conduct analyses of the impacts of trade on employment by industry and occupation in regional labor markets via the creation of a labor market module add-on to the dynamic version of USAGE-TERM. The resultant labor-market enhanced dynamic USAGE-TERM model will give users the capability to identify structural adjustment problems arising from difficulties that workers displaced by trade may have in transferring their skills to alternative employment possibilities in other industries and/or regions." In the paper we provide technical documentation on how the labor-market module was created and illustrate its application by simulating the effects on regional labor markets of a hypothetical reduction in U.S. exports of Machinery and equipment.
    Keywords: regional labor markets multi-regional CGE dynamic CGE labor mobility
    JEL: C68 J62 R13
    Date: 2018–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-283&r=cmp
  21. By: Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge
    Abstract: The TERM methodology requires relatively modest data requirements to create a multi-regional, sub-national CGE database. SinoTERM365 is an extreme form of stretching available data, with the master database representing 162 sectors in 365 prefectural regions of the Chinese economy. A collaborative effort is envisaged among users to enable ongoing improvements to the database. The TERM approach facilitates rapid amendments to the database when improved data are available. The alternative, to wait until better data emerge before building a model, may result in less detail and a less versatile framework for analysis. In our example, we consider a downturn in use of coal and coal-generated electricity in China.
    Keywords: sub-national general equilibrium modeling regional structural change greenhouse gas abatement
    JEL: C68 D58 R13 R15
    Date: 2018–10
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-285&r=cmp

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