nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2016‒03‒10
twelve papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Flexible coupling of disaggregate travel demand models and network simulation packages (“IHOP2”): final project report By Canella, Olivier; Flötteröd , Gunnar; Johnsson , Daniel; Kristoffersson, Ida; Larek, Patryk; Thelin , Joacim
  2. Modelling the Effect of Irrigation on the Hydrological Outputs in Darlik Creek Watershed By Ömer Güngör; Kadir Özdemir
  3. Interregional Input-Output Matrix for Colombia, 2012 By Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Weslem Rodrigues Faria; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro
  4. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model description for version 3: By Robinson, Sherman; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Islam, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B.; Robertson, Richard D.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur; Pitois, Gauthier; Rosegrant, Mark W.
  5. A simple model for cash flow management in nonprofits By Malki, Elli
  6. On short-term traffic flow forecasting and its reliability By Hassane Abouaissa; Michel Fliess; Cédric Join
  7. Development of Policy Impact Assessment Model for the Regulatory Reform Policy of Japanese Electricity Market (Japanese) By KAINOU Kazunari
  8. Service liberalization in Lao PDR By Isono, Ikumo; Ishido, Hikari
  9. Pricing and Hedging GMWB in the Heston and in the Black-Scholes with Stochastic Interest Rate Models By Ludovic Gouden\`ege; Andrea Molent; Antonino Zanette
  10. A Fuzzy-Neural Performance Evaluation Approach of Selecting Outsource International Logistic Company By Chun Wei R. Lin; Yun-Jiuan Melody Parng; Hong-Yi Chen
  11. Wage Moderation in Crises; Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area By Jörg Decressin; Raphael A. Espinoza; Ioannis Halikias; Michael Kumhof; Daniel Leigh; Prakash Loungani; Paulo A. Medas; Susanna Mursula; Antonio Spilimbergo; TengTeng Xu
  12. Losing the gains of the past : the welfare and distributional impacts of the twin crises in Iraq 2014 By Krishnan,Nandini; Olivieri,Sergio Daniel

  1. By: Canella, Olivier (WSP); Flötteröd , Gunnar (KTH); Johnsson , Daniel (KTH); Kristoffersson, Ida (Sweco); Larek, Patryk (WSP); Thelin , Joacim (Sweco)
    Abstract: Trafikverket’s development plan states as one of eleven expected results “En ny generation persontransportmodellsystem, med dynamisk modell för storstad implementerad” (Trafikverket, 2014). IHOP aims to be this system. IHOP2 is the second development project advancing the IHOP system. IHOP2 couples the travel demand model Regent and the network assignment package TransModeler through a new, agent-based interface layer that is based on the MATSim transport simulation toolkit. The main objective of this effort is to demonstrate that such a coupling is feasible. This demonstration is delivered based on a prototypical Stockholm case study. The present document is also meant to serve as a technical documentation of the IHOP system in its current form.
    Keywords: Strategic transport planning; Dynamic traffic assignment; Travel demand modeling; Integrated transportation model system
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2016–03–01
  2. By: Ömer Güngör (Bülent Ecevit University); Kadir Özdemir (Bülent Ecevit University)
    Abstract: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a comprehensive, well-established, distributed hydrological cycle and continuous time model that runs the hydrological response unit (HRU) as a basic computational unit. Amount of irrigation water is automatically applied to HRU during simulation by SWAT in response to a water deficit in the soil. The SWAT-CUP is a utility program which has been adopted to carry out the parameterization, calibration, validation, and uncertainty analysis parameter uncertainty process for SWAT simulations. In this study, the hydrology of the Darlik Creek Watershed in Turkey has been modelled by the SWAT to determine effect of irrigation on hydrological outputs. SWAT-CUP has been used for calibration and validation purpose. The calibration and the validation process have been accomplished using data from one monitoring station. The model has been run for the 1976–1985 period, and while the 1981–1985 period has been used for calibration, the validation has spanned the 1976-1980 period. The monthly Nash–Sutcliffe, PBIAS and R2 (coefficient of determination) performance indicators for The Darlik monitoring station, which is located close to the watershed outlet, has shown values of 0.73, -4.6 and 0.78, respectively, for the calibration period, and 0.53, 14.6 and 0.66, respectively, for the validation period. In general, model simulation can be judged as satisfactory if NSE > 0.50, and if PBIAS 25% for streamflow (Moriasi et al. 2007). The comparison between model predictions and observations on the monthly basis for the Darlik monitoring station has indicated a good model performance. The effects of irrigation on hydrological outputs have been also investigated. Irrigation scenario has shown increases in watershed outlet stream flows by 67% for the whole year.
    Keywords: hydrologic modelling, irrigation, SWAT, SWATCup, Darlik Creek, calibration, validation
  3. By: Eduardo Amaral Haddad; Weslem Rodrigues Faria; Luis Armando Galvis-Aponte; Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro
    Abstract: This paper reports on the recent developments in the construction of an interregional input-output matrix for Colombia (IIOM-COL). As part of an ongoing project that aims to update an interregional CGE (ICGE) model for the country, the CEER model, a fully specified interregional input-output database was developed under conditions of limited information. Such database is needed for future calibration of the ICGE model. We conduct an analysis of the intraregional and interregional shares for the average total output multipliers. Furthermore, we also show detailed figures for the output decomposition, taking into account the structure of final demand.
    Keywords: CEER Model, Interregional input-output matrix, Colombia
    JEL: R15
    Date: 2016–02–05
  4. By: Robinson, Sherman; Mason d'Croz, Daniel; Islam, Shahnila; Sulser, Timothy B.; Robertson, Richard D.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur; Pitois, Gauthier; Rosegrant, Mark W.
    Abstract: The International Food Policy Research Institute’s International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) supports analysis of long-term challenges and opportunities for food, agriculture, and natural resources at global and regional scales. IMPACT is continually being updated and improved to better inform the choices that decisionmakers face today. This document describes the latest version of the model. IMPACT version 3 expands the geographic and commodity scope of the model in response to desires expressed by researchers and policymakers to address more complex questions involving climate change, food security, and economic development into the future. IMPACT 3 is an integrated modeling system that links information from climate models (Earth System Models), crop simulation models (for example, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer), and water models linked to a core global, partial equilibrium, multimarket model focused on the agriculture sector. This model system supports longer-term scenario analysis through the integration of these multidisciplinary modules to provide researchers and policymakers with a flexible tool to assess and compare the potential effects of changes in biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.
    Keywords: mathematical models, simulation models, agriculture, international trade, food security, climate change, markets, welfare, hydrology, water use, water management, drought stress, International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade IMPACT model, scenario analysis, multi-market model, modular modeling approach, welfare analysis, global hydrology, water basin management, water stress simulation, crop simulation modeling, ex ante analysis,
    Date: 2015
  5. By: Malki, Elli
    Abstract: Cash flow management is one of the most significant challenges that face nonprofit organizations. A shortage is cash, even if it's temporary, is a major risk factor for the organization. Nevertheless the standard method for cash flow management – a cash flow projection - does not produce satisfactory results for nonprofits. The weak point of the cash flow projection method is that it ignores the inherent unpredictability of the income stream. This is a typical characteristic of the nonprofits sector, due to its reliance on income stream from donations and grants. In this article I present a simple simulation model that overcomes this problem. The simulation model connects between the cash flow and the accounting data. It enables the organization to assess its cash flow risk, and to analyze different scenarios that can eliminate the risk. The model was tested in several nonprofit organizations, and the article presents its implementation in one of them.
    Keywords: Nonprofits, financial management, cash flow, NGO
    JEL: G32 L30 L31 M41
    Date: 2016–02–23
  6. By: Hassane Abouaissa (LGI2A - Laboratoire de Génie Informatique et d'Automatique de l'Artois - UA - Université d'Artois); Michel Fliess (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ALIEN); Cédric Join (CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, NON-A - Non-Asymptotic estimation for online systems - INRIA Lille - Nord Europe - INRIA - CRIStAL - Centre de Recherche en Informatique, Signal et Automatique de Lille - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies - INRIA - Ecole Centrale de Lille - Université de Lille Sciences humaines et sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ALIEN)
    Abstract: Recent advances in time series, where deterministic and stochastic modelings as well as the storage and analysis of big data are useless, permit a new approach to short-term traffic flow forecasting and to its reliability, i.e., to the traffic volatility. Several convincing computer simulations, which utilize concrete data, are presented and discussed.
    Keywords: financial engineering, volatility, risk, persistence, time series, forecasts,road traffic, transportation control, management systems, intelligent knowledge-based systems
    Date: 2016–06–28
  7. By: KAINOU Kazunari
    Abstract: After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, the Government of Japan strongly began promoting regulatory reform policy of Japanese electricity industry including perfect deregulation of retail sales of electricity after April 2016. In the policy, they point out important aspects of regulatory reform such as promotion of wide range electricity transmission and trading, short-term competition based on merit order and long-term investment based on power generator investment, and consumer protection by interim regulation of electricity tariff cap, but it is important to provide tools to enable comprehensive and quantitative policy impact evaluation and assessment to support regulators. The author established numerical simulation model that enables to quantify electricity equilibrium prices for regions, twenty four hours based on demand and merit-order supply, and also able to quantify investment return, power generation market entry feasibility, energy consumption and carbon emission. Then the author checked the model's accuracy with sensitivity analysis of world fossil fuel price change and regional electricity demand change. The author finally tried policy impact assessment for interim electricity tariff regulation, nuclear reactor safety regulation for old reactors and "Feed-in-tariff" systems for solar photovoltaic cell origin electricity.
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Isono, Ikumo; Ishido, Hikari
    Abstract: Service liberalization is emerging as a high-priority issue in various parts of the world for mega free trade agreements as well as national policy. Lao PDR is no exception. To examine the level of service liberalization in Lao PDR, we first compare the Hoekman Indices of Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam on the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Services (AFAS 8). Lao PDR has lower commitment in many subsectors. In particular, we list the sectors in which Lao PDR made a lower commitment than Cambodia and Vietnam in Mode 3 (supply of services through commercial establishments abroad). Second, a simulation analysis using the Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) from the Institute of Developing Economies at the Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO) reveals how service liberalization benefits the economic development of Lao PDR. The two analyses clearly reveal that it is essential for Lao PDR to promote further service liberalization since such liberalization will contribute to the country's development.
    Keywords: Laos, Service industries, Foreign investments, International trade, Lao PDR, Service, Simulation, AFAS
    JEL: F14 F15 F21
    Date: 2016–03
  9. By: Ludovic Gouden\`ege; Andrea Molent; Antonino Zanette
    Abstract: Valuing Guaranteed Minimum Withdrawal Benefit (GMWB) has attracted significant attention from both the academic field and real world financial markets. As remarked by Yang and Dai, the Black and Scholes framework seems to be inappropriate for such a long maturity products. Also Chen Vetzal and Forsyth in showed that the price of these products is very sensitive to interest rate and volatility parameters. We propose here to use a stochastic volatility model (Heston model) and a Black Scholes model with stochastic interest rate (Hull White model). For this purpose we present four numerical methods for pricing GMWB variables annuities: a hybrid tree-finite difference method and a Hybrid Monte Carlo method, an ADI finite difference scheme, and a Standard Monte Carlo method. These methods are used to determine the no-arbitrage fee for the most popular versions of the GMWB contract, and to calculate the Greeks used in hedging. Both constant withdrawal, optimal surrender and optimal withdrawal strategies are considered. Numerical results are presented which demonstrate the sensitivity of the no-arbitrage fee to economic, contractual and longevity assumptions.
    Date: 2016–02
  10. By: Chun Wei R. Lin (YunTech, Taiwan, R.O.C.); Yun-Jiuan Melody Parng (Tayeh University); Hong-Yi Chen (Chaoyang University of Technology)
    Abstract: Owing to lack of confidence, the usage of domestic logistics services in the Asian region, e.g. Taiwanese companies, is comparatively lower than the use of international logistics companies. This paper develops an integrated fuzzy neural network performance evaluation model which is able to consider five key factors to evaluate their performance in the internationalization competence, namely, flexibility in organization structure, competitiveness in the global environment, versatility in service contents, sophistication in information technology application, and compliance in administrative regulations. The model successfully provides a transparent and systematic evaluation tool for industries to select appropriate logistic companies for international logistics services.
    Keywords: Performance Evalution, International Logistics, Outsourcing, Fuzzy Neural Network
    JEL: C00 C45 F23
  11. By: Jörg Decressin; Raphael A. Espinoza; Ioannis Halikias; Michael Kumhof; Daniel Leigh; Prakash Loungani; Paulo A. Medas; Susanna Mursula; Antonio Spilimbergo; TengTeng Xu
    Abstract: The paper studies the impacts of wage moderation in the euro area. Simulation results show that if a single euro area crisis-hit economy undertakes wage moderation, the impact on output is positive for that economy and for the entire euro area. If all crisis-hit economies undertake wage moderation together, their output still expands, albeit to a lesser degree. If the wage moderation is accompanied by cuts in policy interest rates by the central bank—and by quantitative easing once interest rates hit the zero lower bound—then output for the entire euro area expands as well.
    Keywords: Wage bargaining;Euro Area;Wage adjustments;Negative spillovers;Monetary policy;Euro area, Crisis, Current account, Internal devaluation, Unemployment, Wage moderation, economies, devaluation, monetary policy, economy, General, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, International Business Cycles, All Countries,
    Date: 2015–11–17
  12. By: Krishnan,Nandini; Olivieri,Sergio Daniel
    Abstract: Iraq was plunged into two simultaneous crises in the second half of 2014, one driven by a sharp decline in oil prices, the other, by the war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. The severity and recurrent nature of these crises demand a fast understanding and quantification of their welfare impact, which is critical for policy makers. This paper employs an innovative extension of the micro-simulation methodology to provide an ex ante estimate and analysis of the complex and dynamic poverty and distributional impact of the twin crises. The results show an almost complete erosion of the welfare gains of the past, with poverty falling back to 2007 levels and a 20 percent increase in the number of the poor. While the incidence of poverty is higher among internally displaced persons than the rest of the population (except in the Islamic State?affected governorates, where poverty is higher), internally displaced persons make up only a small proportion of Iraq's eight million poor in 2014. The rest comprise of households who already lived below the poverty line, or those who have fallen below the poverty line in the face of the massive economic disruptions the country is facing. The welfare impact of the crises varies widely across space, with the largest increases in poverty headcount rates in Kurdistan and the Islamic State?affected governorates. Yet, the poorest regions in the 2014 crisis scenario are the same as in 2012, the currently Islamic State?affected, and the South, with poverty rates of 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Although the simulated results are not strictly comparable to ex post micro data estimates, because of survey coverage constraints, overall the results are very much in line, particularly in Kurdistan and the South.
    Keywords: Regional Economic Development,Inequality,Economic Theory&Research,Labor Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction
    Date: 2016–02–16

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