nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒26
nine papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Conquering the EU market with new comprehensive trade agreements –simulating DCFTAs between the EU and neighbour countries By Rau, Marie-Luise
  2. A Macro CGE Model for the Colombian Economy By Andrés M. Velasco; Camilo A. Cárdenas Hurtado
  3. Agent-Based Modeling of Farming Behavior: A Dutch Case Study on Milk Quota Abolishment and Sustainable Dairying By Oudendag, Diti; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Jongeneel, Roel
  4. Parametric versus non-parametric simulation By Dupeux, Bérénice; Buysse, Jeroen
  5. Water policy and poverty reduction in rural area: a comparative economywide analysis for Morocco and Tunisia By Thabet, Chokri; Chebil, Ali; Frija, Aymen
  6. India’s grain security policy in the era of high food prices: a computable general equilibrium analysis By Yu, Wusheng; Bandara, Jayatilleke S.
  7. Land-use simulation as a supporting tool for flood risk assessment and coastal safety planning: The case of the Belgian coast By Frank Canters; Sven S. Vanderhaegen; Ahmed Z. Khan; Guy G. Engelen; Inge I. Uljee
  8. Assessing the Value of Broadband Connectivity for Big Data and Telematics: Technical Efficiency By Mark, Tyler; Whitacre, Brian; Griffin, Terry
  9. Corporate governance : the case the limitation of the voting rights in a listed company By Bruno-Laurent Moschetto; Frédéric Teulon

  1. By: Rau, Marie-Luise
    Abstract: The EU has undertaken considerable efforts of establishing Deep and Comprehensive Trade Agreements (DCFTAs). The EU DCFTAs go beyond tariff liberalisation, specifically targeting “behind the border” measures, commonly referred to non-tariff measures (NTMs). While offering benefits, the contents and implementation of the DCFTAs has been controversially discussed, and this paper investigates whether DCFTAs will actually help partner countries to sell their products on the EU market. For the analysis, the general equilibrium model MAGNET (Modular Applied General Equilibrium Tool) is applied in a recursive dynamic general equilibrium framework. In the simulation, DCFTAs are depicted in terms of a tariff liberalisation and the elimination of NTMs between the EU and DCFTA partners. The latter represents the regulatory orientation towards the EU, whereby the standard “ice-berg costs” approach is implemented in the simulation. The simulation results show that the DCFTA partner countries will not equally benefit from increased trade with the EU. In particular small DCFTA partners do not seem to be able to tap into the potential of the improved trading relations without the DCFTA. Other DCFTA partners however will be able to considerably increase their export to the EU, and in this sense they will conquer the EU market.
    Keywords: International trade, regional trade agreements, trade liberalisation, tariff liberalisation, non-tariff measures, DCFTAs, EU, CGE, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2014–08
  2. By: Andrés M. Velasco; Camilo A. Cárdenas Hurtado
    Abstract: This paper presents the construction of a tailor-made Macro Computable General Equilibrium Model for the Colombian economy that satisfies Banco de la República's macroeconomic programming and forecasting interests. Using information on the national accounts divulged by the National Statistics Department (DANE), we set an easily updatable Macro Social Accounting Matrix that serves as a starting point for the model parameters calibration and estimation. Classification JEL: C67, C68, D57, D58
    Date: 2015–01
  3. By: Oudendag, Diti; Hoogendoorn, Mark; Jongeneel, Roel
    Abstract: Gaining insight on the effect of policies upon the agricultural domain is essential for policy makers, famers and the agribusiness sector. A variety of models have therefore been developed that enable a prediction of agricultural development under different policies. Most models do however not make predictions on a fine grained level and are weak in accounting for specific factor market and resource constraints farmers (agents) face at farm level. The paper presents an agent-based model where each farm is modeled by means of an agent and studies the effect of milk quota abolishment. Two simulations policy simulations are made: 1) abolition of the milk quota; and 2) land-tied sustainable dairy scenario. Outcomes are analyzed and compared with the predictions of sector models.
    Keywords: agent based modelling, dairy, milk quota, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014–08
  4. By: Dupeux, Bérénice; Buysse, Jeroen
    Abstract: Most of ex-ante impact assessment policy models have been based on a parametric approach. We develop a novel non-parametric approach, called Inverse DEA. We use non parametric efficiency analysis for determining the farm’s technology and behaviour. Then, we compare the parametric approach and the Inverse DEA models to a known data generating process. We use a bio-economic model as a data generating process reflecting a real world situation where often non-linear relationships exist. Results suggest that traditional parametric approaches are biased and inconsistent. The Inverse DEA model under variable return to scale preserving technical efficiency scores outperforms any other specifications. However such non-parametric approach is by nature sensitive to noise which hampers its accuracy when it prevails. The use of panel data is preferable.
    Keywords: parametric, Inverse DEA, simulation, policy model, Productivity Analysis,
    Date: 2014–08
  5. By: Thabet, Chokri; Chebil, Ali; Frija, Aymen
    Abstract: The main objective of this study is to compare the impacts of alternative water policy management scenarios on Tunisia and Morocco. A dynamic water CGE-model has been implemented and used to explore the likely effects of water economic instruments. Results show that the low cost of water has encouraged farmers to adopt more water-intensive activities. Reducing public subsidies on water will affect directly farm income which is expected to drop by about 20 per cent in the short and medium terms. However, the reduction of farmers’ incomes will be largely compensated by the saving in public expenditures but also in a better and more efficient use of water resources.
    Keywords: agriculture, water pricing, CGE model, Tunisia and Morocco, Food Security and Poverty, Public Economics,
    Date: 2014–08
  6. By: Yu, Wusheng; Bandara, Jayatilleke S.
    Abstract: There has been a great deal of recent interest in India’s food security, as evidenced by intensive discussions on India’s National Food Security Act (NFSA) and proposed changes to its food subsidy programs. The NFSA is both ambitious and full of potential problems, as it aims at guaranteeing the provision of subsidized food grains for around 70 percent of its vast population and is built upon India’s existing food security policy, which has caused enormous fiscal burden, particularly during the recent world food price crisis. This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the fiscal and welfare costs of the market stabilization and insulating food policy of India during the 2007-08 global food crisis. We demonstrate that domestic food grain price stabilization through simultaneously subsidizing consumers and producers and restricting exports entailed huge fiscal costs and equally large welfare costs to India, an outcome that is almost always the worst as compared to the alternative policy mixes examined in this study. While the most market-oriented domestic and trade policy alternatives that would generate better welfare effects and the least fiscal costs may not be feasible due to political economy considerations, we argue that there exist some “middle-ground” policy mixes featuring partial relaxations of domestic subsidizations on either food grains or fertilizers and/or less restrictive border policies. These policy mixes are superior in terms of their welfare effects and fiscal costs and might also be politically possible.
    Keywords: India, food security policy, trade policy, agriculture subsidy, computable general equilibrium, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Security and Poverty,
    Date: 2014–08
  7. By: Frank Canters; Sven S. Vanderhaegen; Ahmed Z. Khan; Guy G. Engelen; Inge I. Uljee
    Abstract: Given the volatility of both natural and man-made coastal processes, coastal safety has become a prime concern worldwide. In many countries, governments have developed integrated coastal safety plans whose implementation poses complex governance issues, involving multi-level negotiations, consensus building and the reconciliation of conflicting views on coastal development. Communicating these plans is a complex issue. It involves building tools for assessment of flood hazard and for effectively articulating potential risks of flooding to decision makers, stakeholders and the public at large. This paper presents a simulation-based approach that couples the outcome of a GIS based flood hazard model with a cellular automata based land-use change model, to produce risk maps linking areas under different land uses to potential flood depth. The method allows spatially explicit analysis of population at risk given a certain storm event and is applied to the case of a 1000-year and a 4000-year storm occurring along the Belgian coast, corresponding to the risk levels included in the Flanders Integrated Master Plan for Coastal Safety. The study shows the importance of taking land-use dynamics into account when assessing potential flood hazard impacts in coastal areas characterized by a strong pressure on land resources.
    Date: 2014–11
  8. By: Mark, Tyler; Whitacre, Brian; Griffin, Terry
    Abstract: Researchers and practitioners of precision agricultural technology have worked to overcome adoption, cost, and environmental obstacles since its introduction. The next gap in the adoption continuum of profitable precision agricultural technologies is data and data use, the so-called Big Data. Broadband connectivity could be the next hurdle affecting the precision agricultural technology chain and the employment of ‘big data’ and telematics services. Without adequate connectivity the transferring of ‘big data’ from machine-to-machine or to the cloud, inefficiencies are created. These inefficiencies come in the forms of machine downtime, increased human error, and lack of real-time information. We have addressed this issue in a conceptual framework by proposing a non-parametric data envelopment analysis. Simulation and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are utilized to evaluate differing levels of data utilization made possible by broadband internet connectivity. The DEA methodology is useful to estimate the foregone societal value and farm-level profitability due to lack of broadband connectivity. In addition to constraining the profitability of agricultural firms; lack of broadband connectivity limits the adoption of precision agricultural technologies that make use of or relies upon near real time connectivity. The expected results are that producers that have adequate connectivity to employ ‘big data’ and telematics will be more efficient than producers without. Thus, the importance of adequate connectivity can be evaluated.
    Keywords: broadband, big data, telematics, data transfer, wireless, Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Production Economics, Q10 D85,
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Bruno-Laurent Moschetto; Frédéric Teulon
    Abstract: This study develops a new trade-off view of corporate governance from an examination of rules that limit voting rights as a defensive measure against a hostile takeover attempt. The theoretical framework concerns a listed company, the capital of which is mainly detained by atomistic shareholders and the power of which is in the hands of a small group of united minority shareholders, the hard core that wants to block any hostile takeover. The hard core constructs a device based on two parameters allowing it to act on the limitation of the voting rights: a threshold (δ ) below which each share is linked to one vote and above which each share gives less than one vote, according to a redistribution coefficient (γ ). First, this study proposes a model that enables the determination of the impacts of limitation of voting rights on the control of the firm, on the price of the share, and on the attractiveness of the takeover bid. Second, this study determines the optimal regulation of this device. This regulation has to prevent the hostile takeover while minimizing the regulation’s negative impact on the market due to an overprotection of the hard core to the detriment of the dispersed shareholders. Third, this study proposes various quantitative simulations to illustrate particularly complex situations. Finally, this study outlines potentially promising areas for future research.
    Date: 2014–09–30

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