nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒20
twelve papers chosen by

  1. Factor Markets in General Computable Equilibrium Models By Banse, Martin; Shutes, Lindsay; Dixon, Peter; van Meijl, Hans; Rimmer, Maureen; Tabeau, Andrzej; Woltjer, Geert; Rothe, Andrea
  2. An Agent-Based Computational Bioeconomic Model of Plant Disease Diffusion and Control: Grapevine Leafroll Disease By Atallah, Shady; Gomez, Miguel; Conrad, Jon; Nyrop, Jan
  3. Simulation Results of AgriPoliS about Diminishing Capital Subsidies and Restrictions By Sahrbacher, Christoph; Ostermeyer, Arlette; Sahrbacher, Amanda
  4. Farm/Household-level Simulation Results of Testing Policy and Other Scenarios By Viaggi, Davide; Raggi, Meri; Puddu, Marco; Bartolini, Fabio
  5. How the location of urban consolidation and logistics facility has an impact on the delivery costs? An accessibility analysis By Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu; Josep-Maria Salanova Grau
  6. Increasing labour market activity of poor and female: Let’s make work pay in Macedonia By Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica; Petreski, Marjan; Petreska, Despina
  7. Economic Implications of the IEA Efficient World Scenario By Jean Chateau; Bertrand Magné; Laura Cozzi
  8. Revisiting Concentration in Food and Agricultural Supply Chains: The Welfare Implications of Market Power in a Complementary Input Sector By Çakır, Metin; Nolan, James
  9. Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies By Banse, Martin; Rothe, Andrea; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, Hans van; Woltjer, Geert
  10. Computing tournament solutions using relation algebra and RelView By Rudolf Berghammer; Agnieszka Rusinowska; Harrie De Swart
  11. On the Provision of Insurance Against Search-Induced Wage Fluctuations By Jean-Baptiste Michau
  12. A Demonstration of Sustainability Arguments Using House Price Data By Kauko, Tom

  1. By: Banse, Martin; Shutes, Lindsay; Dixon, Peter; van Meijl, Hans; Rimmer, Maureen; Tabeau, Andrzej; Woltjer, Geert; Rothe, Andrea
    Abstract: One objective of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models is the analysis of economy-wide effects of policy measures. The focus of the Factor Markets project is to analyse the functioning of factor markets for agriculture in the EU-27, including the Candidate Countries. While agricultural and food markets are fully integrated in a European single market, subject to an EU-wide common policy, the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), this is not the case for the agricultural factor markets capital, labour and land. There are partly serious differences with regard to member state regulations and institutions affecting land, labour and capital markets. The presentation of this heterogeneity of factor markets amongst EU Member States have been implemented in the CGE models to improve model-based analyses of the CAP and other policy measures affecting agricultural production. This final report comprises the outcome of a systematic extension and improvement of the Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool (MAGNET) model starting from an overview of the current state of the art to represent factor markets in CGE models to a description of work on labour, land and capital in MAGNET.
    Keywords: Factor Markets, General Computable Equilibrium, Agricultural Finance, Labor and Human Capital, Land Economics/Use,
    Date: 2013–05
  2. By: Atallah, Shady; Gomez, Miguel; Conrad, Jon; Nyrop, Jan
    Keywords: Production Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,
    Date: 2013
  3. By: Sahrbacher, Christoph; Ostermeyer, Arlette; Sahrbacher, Amanda
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance,
    Date: 2013–06–17
  4. By: Viaggi, Davide; Raggi, Meri; Puddu, Marco; Bartolini, Fabio
    Abstract: Among the different production factors, land is the one that most often limits farm development and one of the most studied. The connection between policy and other context variables and land markets is at the core of the policy debate, including the present reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. The proposal of the latter has been published in October 2011 and in Italy it will include the switch of the payment regime from an historical to a regional basis. The authors’ objective is to simulate the impact of the proposed policy reform on the land market, particularly on land values and propensity to transaction. They combine insights and data from a farm household investment model revised and extended in order to simulate the demand curve for land in different policy scenarios and a survey of farmers stated intention carried out in the province of Bologna (Italy) in 2012. Based on these results, the authors calibrate a mathematical programming model of land market exchanges for the province of Bologna and use this model form simulation. The results of the model largely corroborate the results from the survey and both hint at a relevant reaction of the land demand and supply to the shift from the historical to the regionalised payments. As effect, the regionalisation would result in increased rental prices and in a tendency to the re-allocation of land.
    Keywords: policy simulations, policy reform, agricultural land, Land Economics/Use,
    Date: 2013–06–17
  5. By: Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - Université Lumière - Lyon II); Josep-Maria Salanova Grau (Hellenic Institute or Transport - Center of Research and Technologie Hellas)
    Abstract: Urban consolidation is a popular subject in city logistics. Moreover, public authorities need adapted decision support methods to analyse the interaction between their land-use choices and the transformations in trip behaviour, for both personal and commercial trips. This paper proposes a simulation method to carry out a land-use and transport interaction analysis based on the notion of accessibility, and applies it to the real urban network of Lyon. First, a literature review on accessibility and simulation of goods flows is made. Second, the proposed method is presented on the form of a sequential procedure. First, a demand generation model estimated the weekly number of demands to deliver to each customer, to what we convert the generated number of deliveries into a daily number of freight transport demands including a quantity of goods to deliver and a customer, via an empirical procedure. Then, a spatial analysis to choose the most suitable sets of potential logistics facilities is proposed. Finally, each platform is associated to a distance-based accessibility indicator. Computational results are presented and discussed. Finally, recommendations to public authorities for their land-use policy assessment in terms of impacts on freight transport are proposed.
    Keywords: urban consolidation; simulation; scenario assessment; distance-based accessibility
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Mojsoska-Blazevski, Nikica; Petreski, Marjan; Petreska, Despina
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to simulate the effects of two alternative social policies – individual and family in-work benefits – on labour market choices in Macedonia, with special reference to poor and females. To that end, we use ex-ante analysis relying on a combination of a tax and benefit micro-simulation model for Macedonia (MAKMOD) and a structural model for the labour supply, both utilizing the 2011 Survey of Income and Labour Conditions. Results suggest that the proposed reforms will result in sizable effects for the working choices of Macedonians. The family in-work benefit is found to be more effective for singles and would lead up to 6 percentage points increase in employment. On the other hand, the individual in-work benefit works better for couples whereby employment would increase by 2.5 percentage points. In addition, the effects are found to be larger for poor and females, the categories that are most prone to inactivity in Macedonia.
    Keywords: in-work benefits, making work pay policies, reform of the social system, Macedonia
    JEL: H55 J22
    Date: 2013
  7. By: Jean Chateau; Bertrand Magné; Laura Cozzi
    Abstract: In its 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) produced an Efficient World Scenario (IEA, 2012) to assess how implementing only economically viable energy efficiency measures would affect energy markets, investment and greenhouse emissions (GHG). The IEA analysis found that in order to halve global primary energy demand over 2010-2035, additional investments of USD 11.8 trillion in more efficient end-use technologies would be necessary. Using the OECD ENV-Linkages macro-economic model, this report simulates the economic and environmental impacts which the IEA Efficient World Scenario implies... Dans son Edition 2012 du « World Energy Outlook », l’Agence Internationale de l’Énergie a élaborée un Scénario pour un monde plus efficace (IEA, 2012) visant à déterminer comment des mesures d’efficacité énergétiques viable affecteront les marchés de l’énergie, les investissements et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES). L’analyse de l’IEA indique que pour diminuer de moitié la demande d’énergie primaire sur l’horizon 2010-2035, près de 11.8 trillions USD d’investissement supplémentaires dans les technologies plus efficace en énergie sont nécessaires. Utilisant le modèle ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE, ce rapport détaille les conséquences économiques et environnementales du Scénario pour un monde plus efficace.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium, climate change policy, macroeconomic, energy efficiency, efficacité énergétique, équilibre général calculable, macroéconomique, politique du changement climatique
    JEL: D58 E2 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2014–06–11
  8. By: Çakır, Metin; Nolan, James
    Abstract: The use of complementary inputs is a key characteristic of the production process in many food related industries. In this article we explore how market power in a complementary input sector compares to the exertion of market power in a downstream sector for both producer and consumer welfare, as well as for policy. We develop a model of a homogenous product market that encompasses both bilateral and complementary relationships. The model focuses on the primary input sector and allows for exertion of market power by both complementary input suppliers and downstream firms. We use comparative statics analyses and numerical simulations to study the economic equilibrium under different scenarios of market power exertion. With respect to the welfare of primary input suppliers, our main finding is that market power exercised by the supplier of a complementary input generates greater negative effects than the same level of market power exercised by the downstream firms. We provide a discussion of the implications of the results for policy in the context of current problems within the Canadian grain handling and transportation system.
    Keywords: Supply Chain Competitiveness, Complementary Sectors, Market Power, Grain Handling and Transportation System, Production Economics, D43, L13, Q13,
    Date: 2014–07
  9. By: Banse, Martin; Rothe, Andrea; Tabeau, Andrzej; Meijl, Hans van; Woltjer, Geert
    Abstract: This paper analyses the consequences of enhanced biofuel production in regions and countries of the world that have announced plans to implement or expand on biofuel policies. The analysis considers biofuel policies implemented as binding blending targets for transportation fuels. The chosen quantitative modelling approach is two-fold: it combines the analysis of biofuel policies in a multi-sectoral economic model (MAGNET) with systematic variation of the functioning of capital and labour markets. This paper adds to existing research by considering biofuel policies in the EU, the US and various other countries with considerable agricultural production and trade, such as Brazil, India and China. Moreover, the application multi-sectoral modelling system with different assumptions on the mobility of factor markets allows for the observation of changes in economic indicators under different conditions of how factor markets work. Systematic variation of factor mobility indicates that the ‘burden’ of global biofuel policies is not equally distributed across different factors within agricultural production. Agricultural land, as the pre-dominant and sector-specific factor, is, regardless of different degrees of inter-sectoral or intra-sectoral factor mobility, the most important factor limiting the expansion of agricultural production. More capital and higher employment in agriculture will ease the pressure on additional land use – but only partly. To expand agricultural production at global scale requires both land and mobile factors adapted to increase total factor productivity in agriculture in the most efficient way.
    Keywords: Capital markets, agricultural land, biofuel policies, Agricultural Finance, Land Economics/Use,
    Date: 2013–05
  10. By: Rudolf Berghammer (Institut für Informatik - Universitat Kiel); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Harrie De Swart (Department of Philosophy - Erasmus University Rotterdam)
    Abstract: We describe a simple computing technique for the tournament choice problem. It rests upon relational modeling and uses the BDD-based computer system RelView for the evaluation of the relation-algebraic expressions that specify the solutions and for the visualization of the computed results. The Copeland set can immediately be identified using RelView's labeling feature. Relation-algebraic specifications of the Condorcet non-losers, the Schwartz set, the top cycle, the uncovered set, the minimal covering set, the Banks set, and the tournament equilibrium set are delivered. We present an example of a tournament on a small set of alternatives, for which the above choice sets are computed and visualized via RelView. The technique described in this paper is very flexible and especially appropriate for prototyping and experimentation, and as such very instructive for educational purposes. It can easily be applied to other problems of social choice and game theory.
    Keywords: Tournament ; relational algebra ; RelView ; Copeland set ; Condorcet non-losers ; Schwartz set ; top cycle ; uncovered set ; minimal covering set ; Banks set ; tournament equilibrium set
    Date: 2013
  11. By: Jean-Baptiste Michau (Ecole Polytechnique, France)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the provision of insurance to workers against search-induced wage fluctuations. I rely on numerical simulations of a model of on-the-job search and precautionary savings. The model is calibrated to low skilled workers in the U.S.. The extent of insurance is determined by the degree of progressivity of a non-linear transfer schedule. The fundamental trade-off is that a more generous provision of insurance reduces incentives to search for better paying jobs, which is detrimental to the production efficiency of the economy. I show that progressivity raises the search intensity of unemployed worker, which reduces the equilibrium rate of unemployment, but lowers the search intensity of employed job seekers, which results in a lower output level. I also solve numerically for the optimal non-linear transfer schedule. The optimal policy is to provide almost no insurance up to a monthly income level of $1450, such as to preserve incentives to move up the wage ladder, and full insurance above $1650. This policy halves the standard deviation of labor incomes, increases output by 2.4% and generates a consumption-equivalent welfare gain of 1.3%. Forbidding private savings does not fundamentally change the shape of the optimal transfer function, but tilts the optimal policy towards more insurance at the expense of production efficiency.
    Date: 2014
  12. By: Kauko, Tom
    Abstract: Real estate is today seen through the widespread sustainability discourse where buildings and land use occupies a core position. Land and buildings are also subject to sustainability evaluations along environmental, social, cultural and economic dimensions. In this paper cross-sectional data on house prices and sales volumes from Budapest, Hungary, for the period 2000-09 are analysed using time-windows generated by the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithms. In particular, upper-market cases are related to sustainable innovations insofar as such exist, which is examined using interviews and field inspection. The results however suggest that such features are largely absent in the period of data collection, although future markets are likely to be different in this respect.
    Date: 2013

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