New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒29
ten papers chosen by

  1. Validation and Functional Complexity By Robert E. Marks
  2. Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food. North Africa case studies - Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia By Mohamed Ben Abdallah; Abdelkader Ait El Mekki; Gamal Siam
  3. Smart grid agent: Plug-in electric vehicle By Dallinger, David; Link, Jochen; Büttner, Markus
  4. On the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Euro Area By He, Xiaoli; Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.; Kuper, Gerard H.; Ligthart, Jenny E.
  5. Follow the Leader: Simulations on a Dynamic Social Network By David Goldbaum
  6. Economic Growth in the Euro-Med Area through Trade Integration: Focus on Agriculture and Food. Regional impact analysis By Aikaterini Kavallari; Marie-Luise Rau; Martine Rutten
  7. Border Carbon Ajustment in Europe and Trade Retaliation: What would be the Cost for European Union? By Jean Fouré; Houssein Guimbard; Stéphanie Monjon
  8. “Tourism demand forecasting with different neural networks models” By Oscar Claveria; Enric Monte; Salvador Torra
  9. Costs of meeting international climate targets without nuclear power By Duscha, Vicki; Schumacher, Katja; Schleich, Joachim; Buisson, Pierre
  10. Income Distribution and Current Account Imbalances By Christian A. Belabed; Thomas Theobald; Till van Treeck

  1. By: Robert E. Marks (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: This paper provides a framework for discussing the validity of computer simulation models of market phenomena. It defines functional complexity and derives measures of this for a well known agent-based simulation model and suggests methods to overcome the obstacle of complexity in validating such models.
    Keywords: validation of simulation models, agent-based simulations, functional complexity
    JEL: C63 C52
    Date: 2013–10
  2. By: Mohamed Ben Abdallah (Tunis El-Manar University, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion de Tunis (FSEGT), Laboratoire d'Intégration Economique Internationale (LIEI)); Abdelkader Ait El Mekki (National School of Agriculture in Meknes); Gamal Siam (Faculty of Agriculture at Cairo University)
    Abstract: This report presents the macro-effects of deep trade integration between the EU and respectively Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. Overall, the simulation results from both a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model and Social Accounting Matrixes (SAM) analyses show that further trade liberalisation leads to a general gain for the countries under review, with the effect being more pronounced for combining tariff elimination with Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) reduction.
    Keywords: Economic integration, agricultural trade, modelling tools, food security
    JEL: F15 C68 D57 Q17
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: Dallinger, David; Link, Jochen; Büttner, Markus
    Abstract: This study describes a method for programming a plug-in electric vehicle agent that can be used in power system models and in embedded systems implemented in real plug-in electric vehicles. Implementing the software in real-life applications and in simulation tools enables research with a high degree of detail and practical relevance. Agent-based programming, therefore, is an important tool for investigating the future power system. To demonstrate the plug-in electric vehicle agent behavior, an optimization algorithm is presented and two battery aging methods as well as their effect on V2G operation are analyzed. Aging costs based on the depth of discharge result in shallow cycles and a strong dependency on driving behavior, because the state-of-charge affects the discharging process. In contrast, aging costs based on energy throughput calculations results in deeper cycles and V2G operation which is less depend-ent on driving behavior. --
    Date: 2013
  4. By: He, Xiaoli (University of Groningen); Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. (School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania); Kuper, Gerard H. (University of Groningen); Ligthart, Jenny E. (Tilburg University)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on the Euro area utilizing a simple dynamic macroeconomic model with interaction between monetary policy and fiscal policy. The model consists of an IS curve, a Phillips curve, a term structure relation, a debt accumulation equation and a Taylor monetary policy rule supplemented with a Zero Lower Bound, and a fiscal policy rule. The model is calibrated/estimated for EU-16 countries for the period 1980Q1{2009Q4. The impact of the Global Financial Crisis is studied by means of impulse responses following a combined, prolonged aggregate demand and public debt shock. The simulation mimicking the GFC turns out to work fairly well. However, the required size of the shock is quite large.
    Keywords: Global Financial Crisis; euro area; monetary policy; fiscal policy; New Neoclassical Synthesis model; Zero Lower Bound
    JEL: C51 C52 E63
    Date: 2013–10–16
  5. By: David Goldbaum (Economics Discipline Group, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a process of individual adjustment based on private local experiences and observation that allows for the emergence of a global social structure that is the equilibrium to the static follow-the-leader game of Goldbaum (2013). The setting rewards agents for being early adopters of popular products or trends. From simple, myopic, self-serving adjustment based on historic evidence by individuals emerges the the equilibrium social structure consisting of a single choice leader and a population of followers, which, in the static setting would require an unlikely degree of coordination to produce. Individual actions take place in a social context with individuals linked via one-way paths of observation. The strategy by which an agent chooses among the available options evolves over time. Different adjustment emergent processes contribute towards the understanding of the unfolding of events that generate the equilibrium structure.
    Keywords: Leader; Dynamic Network; Social Interaction; Consumer Choice; Simulation
    JEL: D85 D71 C71
    Date: 2013–11–01
  6. By: Aikaterini Kavallari (LEI, part of Wageningen UR); Marie-Luise Rau (LEI, part of Wageningen UR); Martine Rutten (LEI, part of Wageningen UR)
    Abstract: This report presents the simulations of deeper economic integration in the Euro-Mediterranean area by applying the general equilibrium model MAGNET. The scenarios are conducted in order to provide insight about how growth in North Africa, specifically Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia, could potentially be promoted. The focus is on the agri-food sectors, which are investigated in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership, framed within the negotiations of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the European Union and respectively Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. The report also refers to Turkey, being a significant trading partner in the Mediterranean basin. Four scenarios are analysed in the horizon 2020, by paying special attention to key challenges such as non-tariff measure removal, world food price rising, productivity gains, and food waste mitigation.
    Keywords: Economic integration, agricultural trade, modelling tools, food security
    JEL: F15 C68 D58 Q17
    Date: 2013–09
  7. By: Jean Fouré; Houssein Guimbard; Stéphanie Monjon
    Abstract: Unilateral climate policy, such as carbon pricing, represents an additional cost to the economy, especially to energyintensive industrial sectors, as well as those exposed to international competition. A border carbon adjustment (BCA) is often presented as an attractive policy option for countries that want to go ahead without waiting for a global climate agreement. We used the computable general equilibrium model MIRAGE-e to simulate the impact of the introduction of a BCA on imports of energy intensive products in EU and EFTA countries and to evaluate the export losses their main trade partners would suffer. Given that a BCA is a trade measure, it would certainly lead to disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO). If the BCA is considered illegal, the losses suffered by some partners may justify retaliation, as authorized by a WTO dispute settlement. The overall aggregated impacts of these measures would be negative but marginal, meaning that neither the BCA nor trade retaliation would have a marked impact on consumers’ real income or GDP, while prohibitive retaliatory tariffs are more likely to target sensitive products in the EU. A BCA would ultimately be a signal of the EU’s willingness to maintain an ambitious climate policy.
    Keywords: emission trading scheme;border carbon adjustment;trade retaliation
    JEL: D58 F18 Q56
    Date: 2013–11
  8. By: Oscar Claveria (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Enric Monte (Department of Signal Theory and Communications, Polytechnic University of Catalunya (UPC)); Salvador Torra (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper aims to compare the performance of different Artificial Neural Networks techniques for tourist demand forecasting. We test the forecasting accuracy of three different types of architectures: a multi-layer perceptron, a radial basis function and an Elman network. We also evaluate the effect of the memory by repeating the experiment assuming different topologies regarding the number of lags introduced. We used tourist arrivals from all the different countries of origin to Catalonia from 2001 to 2012. We find that multi-layer perceptron and radial basis function models outperform Elman networks, being the radial basis function architecture the one providing the best forecasts when no additional lags are incorporated. These results indicate the potential existence of instabilities when using dynamic networks for forecasting purposes. We also find that for higher memories, the forecasting performance obtained for longer horizons improves, suggesting the importance of increasing the dimensionality for long term forecasting.
    Keywords: tourism demand; forecasting; artificial neural networks; multi-layer perceptron; radial basis function; Elman networks; Catalonia. JEL classification: L83; C53; C45; R11
    Date: 2013–11
  9. By: Duscha, Vicki; Schumacher, Katja; Schleich, Joachim; Buisson, Pierre
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of a global phase-out of nuclear energy on the costs of meeting international climate policy targets for 2020. The analyses are based on simulations with a global energy systems model. The phase-out of nuclear power increases greenhouse gas emissions by 2% globally, and 7% for Annex I countries. The price of certificates increases by 24% and total compli-ance costs of Annex I countries rise by 28%. Compliance costs increase the most for Japan (+58%) and the USA (+28%). China, India and Russia benefit from a global nuclear phase-out because revenues from higher trading volumes of certificates outweigh the costs of losing nuclear power as a mitigation option. Even for countries that face a relatively large increase in compliance costs, such as Japan, the nuclear phase-out implies a relatively small overall economic burden. When trading of certificates is available only to countries that committed to a second Kyoto period, the nuclear phase-out results in a larger increase in the compliance costs for the group of Annex I countries (but not for the EU and Australia). Results from sensitivity analyses suggest that our findings are fairly robust to alternative burden-sharing schemes and emission target levels. --
    Keywords: nuclear power,phase out,climate policy,Post-Kyoto,Copenhagen pledges
    Date: 2013
  10. By: Christian A. Belabed; Thomas Theobald; Till van Treeck
    Abstract: We develop a three-country, stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model to study the effects of changes in both personal and functional income distribution on national current account balances. Each country has a household sector and a non-household (corporate) sector. The household sector is divided into income deciles, and consumer demand is characterized by upward-looking status comparisons following the relative income hypothesis of consumption. The strength of consumption emulation depends on country-specific institutions. The model is calibrated for the United States, Germany and China. Simulations suggest that a substantial part of the increase in household debt and the decrease in the current account in the United States since the early 1980s can be explained by the interplay of rising (top-end) household income inequality and institutions. On the other hand, the weak domestic demand and increasing current account balances of Germany and China since the mid-1990s are strongly related to shifts in the functional income distribution at the expense of the household sector.
    Keywords: income distribution, relatve income hypothesis, household debt, stock flow consistency, current account, institutions
    JEL: D31 D33 E21 E25 F32 F41
    Date: 2013

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