nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2013‒09‒25
three papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. A solution for forecasting pet chips prices for both short-term and long-term price forcasting, using genetic programming By Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli; Jean-Fabrice Lebraty
  2. Do the UK Government’s welfare reforms make work pay By Stuart Adam; James Browne
  3. The GTAP Data Base Construction Procedure By Harslett, Philip

  1. By: Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713); Jean-Fabrice Lebraty (Centre de Recherche Magellan - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III : EA3713)
    Abstract: Nowadays, forecasting what will happen in economic environments plays a crucial role. We showed that in PET market how a neuro-fuzzy hybrid model can assist the managers in decision-making. In this research, the target is to forecast the same item through another intelligent tool which obeys the evolutionary processing mechanisms. Again, the item for prediction here is PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate) which is the raw material for textile industries and it is highly sensitive against oil price fluctuations and also some other factors such as the demand and supply ratio. The main idea is coming through AHIS model which was presented by Mojtaba Sedigh Fazli and J.F. Lebraty in 2013. In this communication, the hybrid module is substituted with genetic programming. Finally, the simulation has been conducted and compared to three different answers which were presented before the results show that Genetic programming results (acting like hybrid model) which support both Fuzzy Systems and Neural Networks, satisfy the research question considerably.
    Keywords: Efficient Market Hypothesis; Financial Forecasting; Chemicals; Artificial Intelligence; Genetic Programming; Decision Support System; Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy Model.
    Date: 2013–07
  2. By: Stuart Adam (Institute for Fiscal Studies); James Browne (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: The UK government is in the process of introducing a radical package of welfare reforms that it hopes will encourage more people to work as well as reducing government expenditure. The largest structural change planned is the introduction of universal credit to combine six existing means-tested benefits for those of working age into a single payment, which is intended to reduce administration costs and errors, simplify claims, encourage take-up, and increase the incentive to work for those currently facing the weakest incentives. But the deficit reduction package has also involved tax changes and large benefit cuts that have an impact on financial work incentives. At the same time as these reforms have been introduced, weakness in the economy has meant that earnings have increased less quickly than benefit rates, which tends to make working less attractive. In this paper, we use micro-simulation techniques to investigate whether financial work incentives will indeed be stronger in 2015-16 than they were in 2010-11 and to separate out the impact of changes to taxes, benefit cuts and the introduction of universal credit from the impact of wider economic changes.
    Date: 2013–09
  3. By: Harslett, Philip
    Abstract: The GTAP Data Base provides a consistent snapshot of the global economy. It consists of a set of product-by-industry input output tables that represent the structures of more than 100 economies and are linked by bilateral merchandise and cross-border services trade. It is used to support a variety of models that are built to analyse policy changes. The database is assembled using regional input-output tables and data on trade, energy, protection and macroeconomic aggregates from a variety of international sources. The incompatibilities inherent in the data mean that many compromises are required to produce a fully consistent representation of the global economy. This paper provides a summary of the GTAP Data Base construction process. The process has improved continuously over the different versions. This paper refers to the process used to produce version 8.1. The detailed documentation is available from The purpose of this paper is to provide a link between that detailed documentation and the higher-level summary in the ‘Introduction to the Global Trade Analysis Project and the GTAP Data Base’ paper by Walmsley, Aguiar and Narayanan (2012). This paper contains three sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the GTAP Data Base construction procedure. Section 2 details the data sources used and the manipulations applied to data obtained from international organizations to ensure that they are globally consistent. Section 3 details the FIT process, which is the procedure used to adjust regional I-O tables so that they are consistent with international data sources.
    Date: 2013

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