nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2013‒07‒05
ten papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. The Impact of China's Demographic Transition on Economic Growth and Income Distribution: CGE Modeling with Top-Down Micro-Simulation By Wang, Xinxin; Chen, Kevin; Huang, Zuhui
  2. The welfare eect of the new wave of protectionism: The case of Argentina By Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris; Ramos, Maria Priscila
  3. Initial particles position for PSO, in Bound Constrained Optimization By E.F. Campana; Matteo Diez; Giovanni Fasano; Daniele Peri
  4. An Agent-Based Model of Climate-Induced Agricultural Labor Migration By Cai, Ruohong; Oppenheimer, Michael
  5. Macroeconomic and distributional impacts of jatropha-based biodiesel in Mali By Boccanfuso, Dorothee; Coulibaly, Massa; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Savard, Luc
  6. Portfolio Optimization in R By M. Andrecut
  7. Generational Risk – Is It a Big Deal?: Simulating an 80-Period OLG Model with Aggregate Shocks By Jasmina Hasanhodzic; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
  8. How much does an increase in oil prices affect the global economy ? some insights from a general equilibrium analysis By Timilsina, Govinda R.
  9. Study on the Impacts of Fiscal Devaluation By CPB Netherlands; CAPP
  10. A Bioeconomic Model of Plant Disease Management under Spatial-Dynamic Externalities: Grapevine Leafroll Disease By Atallah, Shady S.; Gómez, Miguel I.; Conrad, Jon M.

  1. By: Wang, Xinxin; Chen, Kevin; Huang, Zuhui
    Abstract: Demographic transition due to population aging is an emerging issue throughout the developing world, and especially in China, which has undergone demographic transition more rapidly than most industrial economies. This paper quantifies the economic and distributional effects in the context of demographic transition using the integrated recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with top-down behavioral micro-simulation. The results show that the population aging slow down China’s economy growth rate due to the exhausted of demographic dividend with high cost of labor force. The consequences from the poverty and inequality index indicate that population aging has a negative impact to the reduction of poverty while it is positive as refers to the equality during the process of demographic transition. The average age within a household has a noticeable contribution to total inequality. These findings suggest that measures for stimulating the second demographic dividend should be carried out to promote the economic growth as well as the reduction of poverty. The inequality within the same household groups while with different household age should be put more emphasize on. What’s more, the social pension system should be improved, especially in rural China
    Keywords: Demographic Transition, Economic Growth, Income Distribution, CGE model, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development,
    Date: 2013
  2. By: Chauvin, Nicolas Depetris; Ramos, Maria Priscila
    Abstract: This paper studies the welfare impact of alternative scenarios of trade protectionism and lib- eralization in Argentina. The impact of the dierent trade policies is assessed in two dierent ways. We rst use the multi-sectoral and multi-regional computable general equilibrium MIRAGE model to assess the eects of trade policy on GDP, exports, imports, terms of trade, real wages, and welfare. The second approach is to follow the trade and poverty literature and use the price and factor remuneration changes from each simulation to feed them into household survey data and assess the welfare eect on Argentine households. The simulations show that an increase in protectionism in a unilateral way has only short term benets while the long run eects are negative. On the other hand liberalization scenarios tend to have short term negative eects but positive eects in the long run in particular when NTBs are considered. The analysis using household survey data shows that protectionism has negative long term eects across the entire income distribution and the eect is particularly severe for the poorest households. Liberalization scenarios improve households' welfare in the long run with a slight pro rich bias.
    Keywords: CGE model, Microsimulations, Protectionism, Liberalization, Argentina, Consumer/Household Economics, International Relations/Trade, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C68, F13,
    Date: 2013–06
  3. By: E.F. Campana (National Research Council-Maritime Research Centre (CNR-ISEAN)); Matteo Diez (National Research Council-Maritime Research Centre (CNR-ISEAN)); Giovanni Fasano (Università Ca' Foscari Venice); Daniele Peri (National Research Council-Maritime Research Centre (CNR-ISEAN))
    Abstract: We consider the solution of bound constrained optimization problems, where we assume that the evaluation of the objective function is costly, its derivatives are unavailable and the use of exact derivativefree algorithms may imply a too large computational burden. There is plenty of real applications, e.g. several design optimization problems [1,2], belonging to the latter class, where the objective function must be treated as a Ôblack-boxÕ and automatic differentiation turns to be unsuitable. Since the objective function is often obtained as the result of a simulation, it might be affected also by noise, so that the use of finite differences may be definitely harmful. In this paper we consider the use of the evolutionary Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, where the choice of the parameters is inspired by [4], in order to avoid diverging trajectories of the particles, and help the exploration of the feasible set. Moreover, we extend the ideas in [4] and propose a specific set of initial particles position for the bound constrained problem.
    Keywords: Bound Constrained Optimization, Discrete Dynamic Linear Systems, Free and Forced Responses, Particles Initial Position.
    JEL: C61 C65
    Date: 2013–06
  4. By: Cai, Ruohong; Oppenheimer, Michael
    Abstract: Using an agent-based model, we simulate the climate-induced agricultural labor migration for alternative future climate scenarios. For each agent, the probability of migration is calculated as a function of a set of relevant factors using a logistic regression model. Historical U.S. agricultural employment data was used to calibrate the model. The simulation result showed that larger crop yield reduction induced by climate change tends to generate larger migration flows. Furthermore, we observed that the network effects tend to forecast a larger migration difference between alternative climate scenarios.
    Keywords: Agent-based model, Climate change, Agricultural labor migration, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital,
    Date: 2013
  5. By: Boccanfuso, Dorothee; Coulibaly, Massa; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Savard, Luc
    Abstract: Mali, a landlocked West African nation at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, has introduced a program to produce biodiesel using jatropha curcas, a non-edible shrub widely available throughout the country by farmers for generations as a living fence for their gardens. The aim of the program is to partially substitute diesel, which is entirely supplied through imports, with domestic biodiesel produced from a feedstock that does not have any commercial value otherwise and thus has zero opportunity cost. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to investigate economy-wide and distributional impacts of large-scale jatropha production on different types of lands, and conversion of jatropha oil to biodiesel for domestic consumption. It assesses impacts on agricultural and other commodity markets, resource and factor markets, and international trade. The results are fed into a detailed household survey-based micro-simulation model to assess impacts on poverty and income distribution. The study finds that the expansion of jatropha farming would be beneficial in terms of both macroeconomic and distributional impacts as long as idle lands, which have been neither used for agriculture nor protected as forests, are utilized. However, if jatropha plantation is carried out on existing agriculture lands, the economy-wide impacts would be negative although it would still help reduce rural poverty.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Rural Poverty Reduction,Renewable Energy,Markets and Market Access,Labor Policies
    Date: 2013–06–01
  6. By: M. Andrecut
    Abstract: We consider the problem of finding the efficient frontier associated with the risk-return portfolio optimization model. We derive the analytical expression of the efficient frontier for a portfolio of $N$ risky assets, and for the case when a risk-free asset is added to the model. Also, we provide an R implementation, and we discuss in detail a numerical example of a portfolio of several risky common stocks.
    Date: 2013–07
  7. By: Jasmina Hasanhodzic; Laurence J. Kotlikoff
    Abstract: The theoretical literature on generational risk assumes that this risk is large and that the government can effectively share it. To assess these assumptions, this paper calibrates and simulates 80-period, 40-period, and 20-period overlapping generations (OLG) life-cycle models with aggregate productivity shocks. Previous solution methods could not handle large-scale OLG models such as ours due to the well-known curse of dimensionality. The prior state of the art uses sparse-grid methods to handle 10 to 30 periods depending on the model's realism. Other methods used to solve large-scale, multi- period life-cycle models rely on either local approximations or summary statistics of state variables. We employ and extend a recent algorithm by Judd, Maliar, and Maliar (2009, 2011), which restricts the state space to the model's ergodic set. This limits the required computation and effectively banishes the dimensionality curse in models like ours. We find that intrinsic generational risk is quite small, that government policies can produce generational risk, and that bond markets can help share generational risk. We also show that a bond market can mitigate risk-inducing government policy. Our simulations produce very small equity premia for three reasons. First, there is relatively little intrinsic generational risk. Second, aggregate shocks hit both the young and the old in similar ways. And third, artificially inducing risk between the young and the old via government policy elicits more net supply as well as more net demand for bonds, by the young and the old respectively, leaving the risk premium essentially unchanged. Our results hold even in the presence of rare disasters, very high risk aversion, persistent productivity shocks, and stochastic depreciation. They echo other findings in the literature suggesting that macroeconomic fluctuations are too small to have major microeconomic consequences.
    JEL: E0
    Date: 2013–06
  8. By: Timilsina, Govinda R.
    Abstract: A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from rising oil prices than would those in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. Although the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because the capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Energy Demand,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2013–06–01
  9. By: CPB Netherlands (CPB Netherlands); CAPP (CAPP)
    Abstract: The main research question of the project is summarized as: What are the macroeconomic and distributional consequences of fiscal devaluation for a selection of countries and the EU as a whole? The selected countries are France, Italy, Spain and Austria. The project aims to perform four tasks: 1. Provide a review of the impacts of fiscal devaluations in the light of economic literature and former studies. 2. Use suitable models to analyse macroeconomic impacts of fiscal devaluation in the selected countries and do a comparative analysis of the results obtained in different countries. 3. Analyse distributional impact of fiscal devaluations with the help of models in the selected countries and link these results, if possible, to the macro-level analysis. 4. Analyse the suitability of the policy for the EU as a whole with the help of model simulations and in the light of the country-specific results.
    Keywords: European Union, Taxation, fiscal devaluation, redistribution
    JEL: H21 H23 H24 H31
    Date: 2013–05
  10. By: Atallah, Shady S.; Gómez, Miguel I.; Conrad, Jon M.
    Abstract: Grapevine leafroll disease (GLRD) presently threatens the grape and wine industry worldwide. We develop a cellular automata model of GLRD diffusion and control in two ecologically-connected, independently-managed vineyards. One vineyard produces high-value wine grapes whereas the other produces low-value wine grapes. Disease management is modeled as a two-agent bargaining game. We show that under nooncooperative disease management, it is optimal for both vineyard managers to do not control the disease. We consider the case of a self-enforcing cooperative disease management and compute the benefits accruing from cooperation. We find it optimal for the manager of the high-value vineyard to pay the low-value vineyard to rogue symptomatic vines and test-and-rogue their nonsymptomatic neighbors. We determine the size of a Pareto-efficient side payment that can remedy the negative spatial externality emerging from noncooperative disease control.
    Keywords: Bargaining games, Bioeconomic Models, Cellular Automata, Computational Methods, Externality, Disease Control, Grapevine Leafroll Disease, Side payment, Spatial-Dynamic Processes, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, C63, C71, C72,
    Date: 2013

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