nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2012‒06‒05
thirteen papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. An Inventory of Canadian Microsimulation Models By Yann Décarie, Michaël Boissonneault and Jacques Légaré
  2. A Heuristic Optimization Model for Vegetable Production and Marketing Decisions By Dillon, Carl; Vassalos, Michael
  3. Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy By Gilmartin, Michelle; Learmonth, David; McGregor, Peter; Swales, Kim; Turner, Karen
  4. Pension reform in a rapidly ageing country: the case of Ukraine By Lisenkova, Katerina
  5. Impact of Trade Liberalization and World Price Changes in Bangladesh: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis By Alam, Mohammad Jahangir; Buysse, Jeroen; Begum, Ismat Ara; Nolte, Stephan; Wailes, Eric J.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido
  6. A Foreign Direct Investment database for global CGE models By Christophe Gouel; Houssein Guimbard; David Laborde
  7. Effects from consistent internalization of external effects from transport and manufacturing – a CGE analysis for Sweden By Liu, Xing; Bohlin, Lars
  8. The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world : A global computable general equilibrium analysis By Yang, Jun; Zhang, Wei; Tokgoz, Simla
  9. The impact of fiscal consolidation on economic growth. An illustration for the Spanish economy based on a general equilibrium model By Pablo Hernández de Cos; Carlos Thomas
  10. Rebound Effects from Increased Efficiency in the Use of Energy by UK Households By Lecca, Patrizio; Swales, Kim; Turner, Karen
  11. Thoughts from a user of results of Statistics Canada's LifePaths Microsimulation Model By Jacques Légaré
  12. Andrzej Torój - Poland and Slovakia during the crisis: would the euro (non-)adoption matter? By Andrzej Torój
  13. Bankruptcy as Implicit Health Insurance By Neale Mahoney

  1. By: Yann Décarie, Michaël Boissonneault and Jacques Légaré
    Abstract: The first aim of this document was to produce the most complete list as possible of the microsimulation models developed in Canada in the last two decades. Morever, information was provided about the people or entities that participated in their production, as well as about the researchers who used them and the papers in which they were mentioned. All these informations were found online, more particularly on the web pages of the various workshops of the International Microsimulation Association (IMA) as well as on Statistics Canada‘s Internet page.
    Keywords: Microsimulation, Canada, Statistics Canada
    JEL: C15 C60
    Date: 2012–05
  2. By: Dillon, Carl; Vassalos, Michael
    Keywords: mathematical programming, decision making, vegetables, heuristics, Farm Management, Production Economics,
    Date: 2012–05
  3. By: Gilmartin, Michelle; Learmonth, David; McGregor, Peter; Swales, Kim; Turner, Karen
    Abstract: UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the non-target region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market.
    Keywords: regional CGE modelling, migration, regional development policy,
    Date: 2011
  4. By: Lisenkova, Katerina
    Abstract: Ukraine has a rapidly ageing and declining population. A dynamic forward-­looking Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with an explicitly modelled Payâ€Asâ€You-­Go pension scheme is constructed to perform simulations of different pension reform scenarios and investigate the impact of population ageing on a wide range of macroeconomic variables. It is shown that, changes in age structure will result in a significant negative impact on the economy and stability of the pension system. Analysis of the potential changes to the pension system is limited to modelling an increase of the pension age, keeping either the workers’ contribution rate or replacement rate constant.
    Keywords: Ukraine, CGE modelling, pension reform, ageing,
    Date: 2011
  5. By: Alam, Mohammad Jahangir; Buysse, Jeroen; Begum, Ismat Ara; Nolte, Stephan; Wailes, Eric J.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization and changes in world prices of agricultural commodities in Bangladesh using single country CGE model. Since the agricultural sector is sensitive to overall employment, household welfare and food security, the analysis focuses on the changes in agricultural production, consumption, household income and welfare. The results show that trade liberalization increases the welfare of all household groups while world market price increases decrease welfare. It means that although trade liberalization generates a welfare increase for households but this is dependent on the relative level of world commodity prices. Our results are based on the analysis of aggregate household groups, so it may be of future research interest to extend the model with more detailed household groups using a CGE-micro simulation approach.
    Keywords: static, CGE, trade policy, world prices, agricultural commodities, Bangladesh, Agricultural and Food Policy, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Security and Poverty, International Development, International Relations/Trade,
    Date: 2012
  6. By: Christophe Gouel; Houssein Guimbard; David Laborde
    Abstract: We describe the methodology used to construct a global database of foreign direct investments in three dimensions (investor country, host country and sector) for 2004. Based on Eurostat data, we estimate theoretical investments for all countries. Then we constrain our estimates subject to existing data with lower dimensions (1 or 2) during the balancing of the matrix, using a quadratic optimization. This database is intended for use for CGE modeling studies.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium models, Foreign Direct investment, Databases
    JEL: C68 C82 F21
    Date: 2012–04
  7. By: Liu, Xing (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics); Bohlin, Lars (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)
    Abstract: This paper uses a static, small open-economy computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of the Swedish economy to study the effects of consistent internalization of external effects from transport and manufacturing. We look at eight policy scenarios: first a fully implemented Social Marginal Cost Pricing (SMCP) in manufacturing, sea and air transport, road transport, and rail transport; and then SMCP in these sectors separately or in various combinations. We evaluate effects on, among others, national and global emission reductions, GDP, government budget, and social welfare. The results show that the fully implemented SMCP in all sectors generates the highest social welfare surplus, largest emission reduction and largest government net revenue. When this option is not feasible, society still could benefit from correcting prices in or more sectors. Correcting prices only for rail transport generates very small social welfare surplus, emission reduction and government revenue; while correcting prices only for road transport generates much larger effects in all aspects. Taking into consideration that sea and air modes are regulated not only by domestic legislation, the findings from this study suggest that the second-best policy scenario could be to correct prices for the rail, road and manufacturing sectors.
    Keywords: social marginal cost; externalities; transport taxation; CO2 taxation; general equilibrium
    JEL: C68 H23 R48
    Date: 2012–05–22
  8. By: Yang, Jun; Zhang, Wei; Tokgoz, Simla
    Abstract: There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Despite continuous international political pressure to appreciate its currency, the Chinese government has resisted significant changes. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model, Exchange rate, Economic impacts, Renminbi appreciation,
    Date: 2012
  9. By: Pablo Hernández de Cos (Banco de España); Carlos Thomas (Banco de España)
    Abstract: This study illustrates the effects of different fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity through simulations performed with a general equilibrium model calibrated to the Spanish economy. Overall, our results show that fiscal consolidation has short-run costs but sizable long-run benefits in terms of growth. Regarding the short-run costs, their magnitude depends crucially on the presence of confidence effects due to the consolidation process, which tend to reduce the value of fiscal multipliers
    Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, general equilibrium, fiscal multipliers, confidence effects
    JEL: E62 C68
    Date: 2012–05
  10. By: Lecca, Patrizio; Swales, Kim; Turner, Karen
    Abstract: In this paper, we use CGE modelling techniques to identify the impact on energy use of an improvement in energy efficiency in the household sector. The main findings are that 1) when the price of energy is measured in natural units, the increase in efficiency yields only to a modification of tastes, changing as a result, the composition of household consumption; 2) when households internalize efficiency, the improvement in energy efficiency reduces the price of energy in efficiency units, providing a source of improved competitiveness as the nominal wage and the price level both fall; 3) the short-run rebound can be greater than the long run rebound if the household demand elasticity is the same for both time frames, however, the short run rebound is always lower than in the long-run if the demand for energy is relatively more elastic in the long-run; 4) the introduction of habit formation changes the composition of household consumption, modifying the magnitude of the household rebound only in the short-run. In this period, household and economy wide rebound are lowest for external habit formation and highest when consumers’ preferences are defined using a conventional utility function.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, Rebound effects, Households energy consumption, CGE models,
    Date: 2011
  11. By: Jacques Légaré
    Abstract: As for more than ten years, my name has been many time associated with Statistics Canada’s LifePaths Microsimulation Model, I was asked to give my thoughts on it at the Seminar “On the Varieties of Computer Modeling: A Toolbox Approach to Analysis and Decision Making” organized by the Population Change and Lifecourse Strategic Knowledge Cluster in Gatineau (Québec) on September 28, 2011. After a narration of how I became user of results of LifePaths, I give a few examples that lead me to uncertainty because I am questioning my trust regarding methods and models used as well as data used.
    Keywords: Canada, LifePaths, Microsimulation, Projections, GSS 2002 and 2007, CCHS 2003 and 2005
    JEL: C18 J11
    Date: 2012–02
  12. By: Andrzej Torój (Ministry of Finance, Poland)
    Abstract: It is commonly argued that Poland avoided a massive drop in output during the 2008/2009 economic crisis in part thanks to substantial nominal zloty's depreciation against the euro. The Polish case is often contrasted with Slovakia that adopted the euro in January 2009 and, since the Ecofin Council decision in summer 2008, exhibited virtually no nominal exchange rate volatility while facing deep losses in output. In this paper we attempt to validate this contrast by reversing the roles, i.e. checking if Poland really would have faced the same drop -- and Slovakia the same boost -- if it had been Poland, not Slovakia, that adopted the euro at that point. Our counterfactual simulations based on a New Keynesian DSGE model indicate that, indeed, the Polish tradable output could have been 10-15 percent lower than actually observed in 2009, while the Slovak one -- approximately 20 percent higher. This asymmetry results mainly from structural differences between the two economies, such as size, openness, share of nontradable sector and foreign trade elasticities. The difference of this size would have been short-lived (3-4 quarters), and the difference of the nontradable output would have been of much lower magnitude.
    Keywords: euro adoption, Poland, Slovakia, DSGE, counterfactual simulations
    JEL: C54 E42
    Date: 2012–05–23
  13. By: Neale Mahoney
    Abstract: This paper examines the implicit health insurance households receive from the ability to declare bankruptcy. Exploiting cross-state and within-state variation in asset exemption law, I show that uninsured households with greater seizable assets make higher out-of-pocket medical payments, conditional on the amount of care received. In turn, I find that households with greater wealth-at-risk are more likely to hold health insurance. The implicit insurance from bankruptcy distorts the insurance coverage decision. Using a microsimulation model, I calculate that the optimal Pigovian penalties are similar on average to the penalties under the Affordable Care Act (ACA).
    JEL: H51 K35
    Date: 2012–05

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