New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2012‒01‒25
six papers chosen by

  1. A regional computable general equilibrium model for Guatemala: Modeling exogenous shocks and policy alternatives By Morley, Samuel; Piñeiro, Valeria
  2. Evaluating concepts for short-term control in financial service processes By Behley, Dustin; Leyer, Michael
  3. The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy: By Oktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.
  5. The Effect of Interventions to Reduce Fertility on Economic Growth By Quamrul H. Ashraf; David N. Weil; Joshua Wilde
  6. Reforming the labor market and improving competitiveness: An analysis for Spain using FiMod By Schwarzmüller, Tim; Stähler, Nikolai

  1. By: Morley, Samuel; Piñeiro, Valeria
    Abstract: In this paper we develop a dynamic regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for Guatemala that incorporates regional disaggregated sectors for agriculture. The model is designed to be useful as a development tool for determining the effects of regional investments intended to reduce regional poverty and also to explore policy options to deal with a number of macro and balance-of-payments issues. Our model extends previous modeling work on Guatemala in several ways. First, it develops an updated regional social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2008, coupled with an updated CGE. Second, the CGE is a recursive dynamic model that incorporates unemployment in the short run. Most CGE models are not useful for short-run analysis because they are comparative static models that assume full employment. We specify a fixed minimum wage and an informal sector and use a recursive dynamic framework to solve for the short-run adjustment process that occurs as the economy responds to shocks. Second, the model is regional, permitting us to examine the impact of sectoral development policies, particularly those focused on agriculture. Guatemala has one of the lowest investment rates in Latin America. We show that if the investment share is raised by 4percent over five years, the rate of growth of the economy rises by about .6 percentage points. Guatemala is also quite sensitive to external macro disturbances. Our dynamic model gives a first approximation of the timing and nature of the adjustment over the ten years following various macro disturbances. We show that after ten years most of these shocks are absorbed by changes in the real exchange rate and the composition of output rather than the rate of growth of output. Negative shocks cause a real devaluation and a shift from consumption and non-tradables and towards exports and tradable goods. An important empirical question is whether the adjustment toward the traded goods sector is as flexible as the underlying elasticities in the model imply.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling, Economic development, general equilibrium models, macro shocks, regional CGE model,
    Date: 2011
  2. By: Behley, Dustin; Leyer, Michael
    Abstract: Financial services are characterised by the integration of customers while the service is being delivered. This integration leads to interruptions and thus delays in the processing of a customer order until for example the customer provides the missing input. Because customer behaviour can only be planned to a certain extent this is a major problem for an efficient control of financial service processes. It would be helpful to know which concept leads to the best solution for a certain situation in controlling the process. A concept contains explicit practical knowledge e.g. using a stand-by-employee or a prioritisation of customer orders with first-infirst-out. As financial services differ from manufacturing processes application knowledge of concepts cannot be transferred one to one. To test concepts regarding their ability to deal efficiently with interruptions by customers short-term simulations should be conducted. Shortterm simulation uses the actual state of a process and is not focussing on steady-state results. The research presented focuses on comparing several concepts for short-term control using case-study data of a typical financial service process. For this process a simulation model is built based on process mining. This approach is used to gather information out of documented timestamps of underlying process-aware information systems. Such timestamps allow a historical analysis to build typical scenarios and to gather the actual state of a financial service process as a starting point for a simulation analysis. The depicted concepts are simulated for different typical scenarios points to determine respectively which concept suits best. The results show which concepts suit best in certain situations for the case study conducted. --
    Keywords: short-term control,financial services,business process simulation
    JEL: C63 D24 G20 M11
    Date: 2011
  3. By: Oktaviani, Rina; Amaliah, Syarifah; Ringler, Claudia; Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.
    Abstract: Global climate change influences the economic performance of all countries, and Indonesia is no exception. Under climate change, Indonesia is predicted to experience temperature increases of approximately 0.8°C by 2030. Moreover, rainfall patterns are predicted to change, with the rainy season ending earlier and the length of the rainy season becoming shorter. Climate change affects all economic sectors, but the agricultural sector is generally the hardest hit in terms of the number of poor affected. We assess climate change impacts for Indonesia using an Indonesian computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that focuses on the agricultural sector. Climate change input data were obtained from the International Food Policy Research Institute's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade. Our results show that by 2030, global climate change will have a significant and negative effect on the Indonesian economy as a whole. In these projections, we see important impacts for particular sectors in the CGE model, especially for the agricultural sector (both producers and consumers) and in rural areas and for poorer households. Real gross domestic product (GDP) drops slightly and the consumer price index (CPI) increases by a small amount. Negative GDP growth is chiefly the result of adverse impacts on agriculture and agro-based industries, with the largest impact for soybeans, rice, and paddy (unmilled rice). Decreasing output of paddy and rice will adversely affect the country's food security. Domestic prices for paddy and rice increase significantly, pushing up the CPI. Taking international food price shocks into account would increase negative impacts. We find that addressing constraints to agricultural productivity growth through increased public agricultural research investments will be important to counteract adverse impacts of climate change. Enhanced awareness of both government agencies and farmers will be needed for the rural economy to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change.
    Keywords: Climate change, Economy, Impact model, national CGE model, Computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling,
    Date: 2011
  4. By: M. Alejandro Cardenete; M. Carmen Lima; Ferran Sancho
    Abstract: This paper explores the capacity of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data for an economy. Starting from an empirically built regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), a first stage CGE calibrated model is constructed. The model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to European Union Structural Funds 2000-2005 invested into the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. The counterfactual equilibrium is translated into a virtual SAM, conformal with the initial one, which is in turn reused to calibrate the next stage in the CGE modeling. And so on until the last stage is reached and all European funds yearly invested have been absorbed by the economy. Since at the end of the process another empirical SAM is available, it can be compared with the terminally produced virtual SAM. The comparison shows the sequence of SAMs to provide a very good fit to the actual data in the empirical SAM. Regional GDP and unemployment rates are two examples of the close approximation. With this novel approach we evaluate, from the methodological viewpoint, the projection capabilities of CGE modeling and at the same time we provide an empirical assessment of the said European policies.
    Keywords: Social accounting matrices, applied general equilibrium, impact analysis, European regional policy.
    JEL: C67 C68 O21 D57
    Date: 2012–01–16
  5. By: Quamrul H. Ashraf; David N. Weil; Joshua Wilde
    Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of an intervention that immediately reduces TFR by 1.0, using current Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that an immediate decline in the TFR of 1.0 will raise output per capita by approximately 13.2 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 25.4 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
    Keywords: #
    Date: 2011
  6. By: Schwarzmüller, Tim; Stähler, Nikolai
    Abstract: This paper uses an extended version of 'FiMod - A DSGE Model for Fiscal Policy Simulations' (Stähler and Thomas, 2011) with endogenous job destruction decisions by private firms to analyze the effects of several currently discussed labor market reforms on the Spanish economy. The main focus is on the firms' hiring and firing decisions, on the implications for fiscal balances and on Spain's international competitiveness. We find that measures aiming at reducing (policy-induced) outside option of workers, such as a decrease in unemployment benefits, public wages or, to a lesser extent, public-sector employment, seem most beneficial to foster output, employment, international competitiveness and fiscal balances. Decreasing the unions' bargaining power also accomplishes this task, however, at a lower level and at the cost of higher job turnover. Our simulation suggests that reforming employment protection legislation does not seem to be a suitable tool from the perspective of improving international competitiveness. All measures imply (income) redistribution between optimizing and liquidity-constrained consumers. Our analysis also suggests that those reforms that are beneficial for Spain generate positive spillovers to the rest of EMU, too. --
    Keywords: general equilibrium,fiscal policy simulations,labor market search
    JEL: E24 E32 E62 H20 H50
    Date: 2011

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