nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2011‒01‒16
fourteen papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  2. The impacts of biofuel targets on land-use change and food supply : a global CGE assessment By Timilsina, Govinda R.; Beghin, John C.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mevel, Simon
  4. Cost and Benefit of the SLA Mapping Approach for Defining Standardized Goods in Cloud Computing Markets By Michael Maurer; Vincent C. Emeakaroha; Ivona Brandic; Jorn Altmann
  5. Infrastructure Improvement and Its Impact on Indonesian Economic Performance By Djoni Hartono; Tony Irawan; Ferry Irawan
  6. Family Policies in the Context of Low Fertility and Social Structure. By Thomas Fent; Belinda Aparicio Diaz; Alexia Prskawetz
  7. Infrastructure investments under uncertainty with the possibility of retrofit : theory and simulations By Strand, Jon; Miller, Sebastian; Siddiqui, Sauleh
  8. Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010 By Jefferson, Michael; Voudouris, Vlasios
  9. Trade and the Global Recession By Jonathan Eaton; Samuel Kortum; Brent Neiman; John Romalis
  14. Balanced Budget Government Spending in a Small Open Regional Economy By Patrizio Lecca; Peter McGregor; Kim Swales

  1. By: Constanta Nicoleta BODEA (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest); Ileana Ruxandra BADEA (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)
    Abstract: Increasing project complexity makes scheduling problems more difficult to solve and requires more versatile algorithms. Two different approaches for the project scheduling optimization could be considered: TCPSP (Time-Constrained Project Scheduling), and RCPSP (Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling). In this paper we study thepossibility to apply Multi-Agent Systems (MAS) for these scheduling problems regarding different fitness functions. Wesearch for strengths and weaknesses of MAS as a prerequisite study for a further implementation of the TCSP on a specific MAS platform.
    Keywords: multi-agent systems, scheduling, project management, planning
    JEL: L86
    Date: 2010–08
  2. By: Timilsina, Govinda R.; Beghin, John C.; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Mevel, Simon
    Abstract: This study analyzes the long-term impacts of large-scale expansion of biofuels on land-use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a global computable general equilibrium model, augmented by a land-use module and detailed representation of biofuel sectors. The study finds that an expansion of global biofuel production to meet currently articulated or even higher national targets in various countries for biofuel use would reduce gross domestic product at the global level; however, the gross domestic product impacts are mixed across countries or regions. The expansion of biofuels would cause significant land re-allocation with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The results also suggest that the expansion of biofuels would cause a reduction in food supply. Although the magnitude of the impact on food supply at the global level is not as large as perceived earlier, it would be significant in developing countries like India and those in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural commodities such as sugar, corn, and oil seeds, which serve as the main biofuel feedstocks, would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020 compared with the prices at baseline due to the expansion of biofuels to meet the existing targets.
    Keywords: Agribusiness,Food&Beverage Industry,Wetlands,Crops&Crop Management Systems,Renewable Energy
    Date: 2010–12–01
  3. By: Radu-Ioan MOGOª (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)
    Abstract: This paper presents a description of the Enterprise Architecture, the benefits of its use and its key issues. Enterprise Information Architecture is also described and the value that represents in the economic field. Based on the general architecture of the Enterprise Information Architecture was developed a case study containing a data stream that describes the steps required of a financial transaction. In the Enterprise Information Architecture model an argument-based intelligent agent is proposed in order to select the best data mining algorithm to analyze the incoming data.
    Keywords: enterprise architecture, intelligent agent, data mining
    JEL: L86
    Date: 2010–08
  4. By: Michael Maurer; Vincent C. Emeakaroha; Ivona Brandic (Information Systems Institute, Vienna University of Technology); Jorn Altmann (Technology Management, Economics, and Policy Program (TEMEP), Seoul National University)
    Abstract: Due to the large variety in computing resources and, consequently, the large number of different types of Service Level Agreements (SLAs), any market for computing resources faces the potential problem of a low market liquidity. To counteract this problem, offering a set of standardized computing resources is appropriate. Each of these standardized computing resources is defined through an SLA template. An SLA template defines the structure of an SLA, the attributes, the names of the attributes, and the attribute values. Since these SLA templates are currently static, they cannot reflect changes in users' needs. To address this shortcoming, we present the novel approach of adaptive SLA matching. This approach adapts SLA templates based on SLA mappings by allowing Cloud users to define mappings between public SLA templates, which are available in the Cloud market, and their private SLA templates, which are used for various in-house business processes of the Cloud user. Besides showing how public SLA templates adapt to the demand of users, we also analyze the benefits and costs of this approach. Costs are incurred every time a user has to define a new SLA mapping to a public SLA template due to its adaptation. In particular, within this paper, we investigate the cost depending on the use of different public SLA template adaptation methods. The simulation results show that the use of heuristics within adaptation methods helps balancing the cost and benefit of the SLA mapping approach.
    Keywords: Cloud economics, computing markets, market liquidity, simulation.
    JEL: C15 C61 C63 D40 D45 L22 L86
    Date: 2010–12
  5. By: Djoni Hartono (Graduate Program in Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia); Tony Irawan (Department of Economics,Faculty of Economics and Management, Bogor Agricultural University IPB); Ferry Irawan (Fiscal Policy Office - Ministry of Finance)
    Abstract: Indonesian government shows big commitment on the improvement of infrastructure which is reflected in some regulations and policies. It is supported by many empirical evidences that show the importance of infrastructure improvement on economic performance. In this paper, we develop a CGE model to analyze the impact of infrastructure on Indonesian economy by introducing several types of infrastructure and also discuss the impact of infrastructure on the poverty level. The results suggest that improvement on any types of infrastructure is expected will increase economic growth, raise government revenue, raise factor’s income and reduce the poverty level. Improvement on public work of agriculture, land transportation and telecommunication are still preferable option relative to others. Interestingly, even though public work of agriculture usually is located in rural areas, but the model suggest that public work of agriculture improvement will result higher impact on urban household relative to rural household.
    Keywords: CGE
    Date: 2010–12
  6. By: Thomas Fent; Belinda Aparicio Diaz; Alexia Prskawetz
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the effectivity of family policies in the context of different assumptions regarding the social structure of a society. We use an agent based simulation model to analyse the impact of family policies on individual fertility decisions and on cohort fertility, intended fertility, and the fertility gap on the aggregate level. The crucial features of our simulation model are the agents' heterogeneity with respect to age, income, parity, and intended fertility, the social network and social influence. Our results indicate that both fixed and income dependent child supports have a positive and significant impact on fertility. However, several network and social influence parameters have the ability not only to influence fertility itself but also the effectivity of family policies. Therefore, policymakers aiming to transfer a certain policy mix that has proved successful from one country to another one ignoring differences in the social structure may fail. Family policies can only be successful if they explicitly take into account the characteristics of the society they are assigned for.
    Keywords: Family policies, low fertility, social influence, social networks, social structure.
    Date: 2010–12
  7. By: Strand, Jon; Miller, Sebastian; Siddiqui, Sauleh
    Abstract: Investments in large, long-lived, energy-intensive infrastructure investments using fossil fuels increase longer-term energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, unless the plant is shut down early or undergoes costly retrofit later. These investments will depend on expectations of retrofit costs and future energy costs, including energy cost increases from tighter controls on carbon emissions. Simulation analysis shows that the retrofit option can significantly reduce anticipated future energy consumption as of the time of initial investment, and total future energy plus retrofit costs. The more uncertain are the costs, the greater the value of this option. However, the future retrofit option also induces more energy-intensive infrastructure choices, partly offsetting the direct effect of having the option on anticipated energy use. Efficient, forward-looking infrastructure investments have high potential for reducing long-term energy consumption. Particularly if energy prices are expected to rise, however, the potential for reduced energy consumption will be eroded if expectations of energy prices do not include environmental costs or future retrofit possibilities and technologies are not adequately developed.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Economics,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2011–01–01
  8. By: Jefferson, Michael; Voudouris, Vlasios
    Abstract: Most executives know that overarching paints of plausible futures will profoundly affect the competitiveness and survival of their organisation. Initially from the perspective of Shell, this article discuses oil scenarios and their relevance for upstream investments. Scenarios are then incorporated into generative explanation and its principal instrument, namely agent-based computational laboratories, as the new standard of explanation of the past and the present and the new way to structure the uncertainties of the future. The key concept is that the future should not be regarded as ‘complicated’ but as ‘complex’, in that there are uncertainties about the driving forces that generate unanticipated futures, which cannot be explored analytically.
    Keywords: oil scenarios; Shell; ACEGES; agent-based computational economics
    JEL: C0 L1
    Date: 2011–01–05
  9. By: Jonathan Eaton; Samuel Kortum; Brent Neiman; John Romalis
    Abstract: Global trade fell 30 percent relative to GDP during the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Did this collapse result from factors impeding international transactions or did it simply reflect the greater severity of the recession in highly traded sectors? We answer this question with detailed international data, interpreted within a general-equilibrium trade model. Counterfactual simulations of the model show that a shift in spending away from manufactures, particularly durables, accounts for more than 80 percent of the drop in trade/GDP. Increased trade impediments reduced trade in some countries, but globally the impact of these changes largely cancels out.
    JEL: E3 F1 F4
    Date: 2011–01
  10. By: Vasile AVRAM (Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to investigate the main benefits that can be obtained by using a SIK (software inherited knowledge) compliant architecture for cloud services and support software used to build, administer and maintaining the cloud. It introduces the basic building blocks for cloud computing together with the main categories of cloud services. For the SIK architecture, shown in connection with a semantic-web application architecture, are introduced the main functionalities. The paper outlines then the main benefits different categories of users may have from both cloud and SIK compliant architecture for the cloud services delivered onto, for extensive knowledge management, and for creating the base for semantic-web for the modeled domain, the software oeration and usage, and automated administrative tasks for the cloud.
    Keywords: software inherited knowledge, SIK, cloud-computing, knowledge management
    JEL: D83
    Date: 2010–08
  11. By: Andrei-Horia MOGOS (University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Automatic Control and Computers); Adina Magda FLOREA (University Politehnica of Bucharest, Faculty of Automatic Control and Computers)
    Abstract: The composition of semantic web services is a very important and actual problem in the semantic web services research area. There are several semi-automatic approaches for this problem, but most of the results are related to automatic approaches. In this paper we present an automatic approach for the composition of semantic web services based on pattern matching. We consider a special type of semantic description, represented as a list of semantic descriptions corresponding to several semantic web services. The semantic description related to the semantic web service that we want to obtain is decomposed until all the parts of the semantic description correspond to semantic web services from a library. In the end, all the necessary semantic web services found in the library are composed in order to obtain the semantic web service that we wanted to construct.
    Keywords: semantic web service composition, semantic description decomposition, pattern matching
    JEL: L86
    Date: 2010–08
  12. By: Adrian VASILESCU (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest); Rãzvan Daniel ZOTA (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest); Radu CONSTANTINESCU (Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest)
    Abstract: For knowledge management to be successful, the corporate culture needs to be adapted to encourage the creation, sharing, and distribution of knowledge within the organization. There exist different historical and theoretical approaches to and theories about organizing knowledge, which are related to different views of knowledge, cognition, language, and social organization. Each of these approaches tends to answer the question: “What is knowledge organization?” differently. Grid computing enables organizations (real and virtual) to take advantage of various computing resources in ways not previously possible. They can take advantage of under utilized resources to meet business requirements while minimizing additional costs. The nature of a computing grid allows organizations to take advantage of parallel processing, making many applications financially feasible as well as allowing them to complete sooner. Grid computing makes more resources available to more people and organizations while allowing those responsible for the IT infrastructure to enhance resource balancing, reliability, and manageability. When you deploy a grid, it will be to meet a set of business requirements. To better match grid computing capabilities to those requirements, it is useful to keep in mind some common motivations for using grid computing.
    Keywords: Knowledge organizations, grid, cognition
    JEL: D85
    Date: 2010–08
  13. By: Virginia ATANASIU (Mathematics Department, Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest)
    Abstract: An original paper, which describes techniques for estimating premiums for risks, containing a fraction (a part) of the variance of the risk as a loading on the net risk premium.
    Keywords: esscher premium, variance premium, the linearized credibility formula.
    JEL: D81
    Date: 2010–08
  14. By: Patrizio Lecca (Department of Economics, Strathclyde University); Peter McGregor (Fraser of Allander Institute, Strathclyde University); Kim Swales (Department of Economics, Strathclyde University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of a balanced budget fiscal policy expansion in a regional context within a numerical dynamic general equilibrium model. We take Scotland as an example where, recently, there has been extensive debate on greater fiscal autonomy. In response to a balanced budget fiscal expansion the model suggests that: an increase in current government purchase in goods and services has negative multiplier effects only if the elasticity of substitution between private and public consumption is high enough to move downward the marginal utility of private consumers; public capital expenditure crowds in consumption and investment even with a high level of congestion; but crowding out effects might arise in the short-run if agents are myopic.
    Keywords: regional computable general equilibrium analysis, fiscal federalism, fiscal policy.
    JEL: H72 R13 R50
    Date: 2010–10

This nep-cmp issue is ©2011 by Stan Miles. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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