nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2011‒01‒03
ten papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Numerical Simulation of the Overlapping Generations Models with Indeterminacy By Zhigang Feng
  2. NIAM: National Integrated Assessment Model - Proof-of-concept development and application By Kevin Hanslow
  3. Scenarios and Options for Productivity Growth in Philippine Agriculture An Application of the AMPLE By Roehlano M. Briones
  4. General Equilibrium Analysis of DDA Trade Liberalization: Assessment of Alternative Scenarios By Nakgyoon Choi
  5. The regional economic consequences of Less Favoured Area support: a spatial general equilibrium analysis of the Polish LFA program By James Giesecke; Mark Horridge; Katarzyna Zawalinska
  6. A comprehensive literature classification of simulation optimisation methods By Hachicha, Wafik; Ammeri, ahmed; Masmoudi, Faouzi; Chachoub, Habib
  7. H1N1 influenza in Australia and its macroeconomic effects By George Verikios; James McCaw; Jodie McVernon; Anthony Harris
  8. Gas Release and Transport Capacity Investment as Instruments to Foster Competition in Gas Markets By Chaton, Corinne; Gasmi, Farid; Guillerminet, Marie-Laure; Oviedo, Juan Daniel
  9. Mass appraisal of residential apartments: An application of Random forest for valuation and a CART-based approach for model diagnostics By Antipov, Evgeny; Pokryshevskaya, Elena
  10. Modeling the deployment of plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles and their effects on the Australian National Electricity Market. By Liam Wagner; Luke Reedman

  1. By: Zhigang Feng
    Date: 2010–12–14
  2. By: Kevin Hanslow
    Abstract: This paper describes the initial development of a national integrated assessment model, based on the MMRF model used to analyse the CPRS. The initial development was geared towards delivering a proof of concept simulation to demonstrate the feasibility of the development of such a model. In consultation with the CSIRO, it was decided that a reduction in water availability would be an appropriate simulation, being of relevance and interest, especially in the context of climate change, and entailing a realistic load of model development in the timeframe allowed.
    Keywords: CGE models, water, climate change
    JEL: C68
    Date: 2010–11
  3. By: Roehlano M. Briones (Philippine Institute for Development Studies)
    Abstract: Sustaining and accelerating agricultural growth remains a development imperative in view of persistent rural poverty and emerging threats to food security. While growth can be achieved by expansion of agricultural area and input intensification, growth through improvement in productivity is a promising option. However, productivity growth appears to be a relatively low priority for policy. Rather, the agricultural strategy is oriented toward domestic protection to achieve self‐sufficiency and to support production by generous subsidies. In contrast, an alternative strategy may be one that is competition‐oriented and productivity‐based, i.e., one that favors integration with the international economy through trade, as well as making domestic investments targeted at productivity growth. Scenarios for Philippine agriculture under these policy options are evaluated using a new supply and demand model (Agricultural Multi‐market Model for Policy Evaluation or AMPLE). Model simulations suggest that: rapid productivity growth, even when combined with trade liberalization, is generally favorable for farmers and consumers based on improved outlook on production, exports, and food consumption. In contrast, trade liberalization alone has a contractionary effect on agriculture; and production support is a costly instrument for promoting agricultural growth. The model experiments suggest that a back‐to‐basics strategy for agriculture, incorporating various productivity‐based instruments such as investments in R&D, extension, rural infrastructure, protection of the resource base of agriculture, and even human capital formation and institutional reforms, are key to long‐term agricultural growth.
    Keywords: Productivity growth, agriculture, scenario analysis, supply and demand, technological change
    JEL: Q10 Q11 Q16
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Nakgyoon Choi (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy)
    Abstract: This paper aims to implement the simulation studies using a CGE approach to identify ideas on how to finalize the DDA negotiations by making some mutual concessions and deal with contentious issues yet to be agreed. The simulation results of this paper, which lay between those of the previous literature, indicate that the DDA negotiations will boost the global economy to a substantial degree. It reveals that the world GDP effects will amount to US$ 49.9~186.2 billion (0.12~0.45%) and the wel- fare gain will amount to US$ 49.7~157.7 billion. The GDP growth effects are mainly due to effects of trade expansion, which amount to US$ 265.3~382.0 billion. The simulation result also indicates that developed countries need to consider positively the arguments of developing countries on the controversial issues related to agriculture. In return for the concessions by the developed countries, the developing countries will likely accept further discussions related to the sectoral proposals and services liberalization.
    Keywords: DDA negotiations, CGE, Simulation
    JEL: F13 F14 F17
    Date: 2010
  5. By: James Giesecke; Mark Horridge; Katarzyna Zawalinska
    Abstract: On accession to the EU, Poland, one of the most agricultural countries in the region, became eligible for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which it perceived as a chance to develop its rural economy. However, in constructing its 2007-2013 Rural Development Programme, Poland directed the largest funding share to Less Favoured Areas (LFA) -- a controversial measure accused of poor targeting and ineffectiveness. In this paper, we analyse the spatial economic consequences of LFA support for all 16 NUTS2 regions in Poland using a regional computable general equilibrium model called POLTERM. We show that LFA support did help to increase farmers' incomes, but harmed export-oriented sectors and hindered structural change in the Polish economy.
    Keywords: Common Agricultural Policy Reform, Rural development, Less Favoured Areas, Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model, Poland
    JEL: C68 O18 O11 O21 Q18
    Date: 2010–11
  6. By: Hachicha, Wafik; Ammeri, ahmed; Masmoudi, Faouzi; Chachoub, Habib
    Abstract: Simulation Optimization (SO) provides a structured approach to the system design and configuration when analytical expressions for input/output relationships are unavailable. Several excellent surveys have been written on this topic. Each survey concentrates on only few classification criteria. This paper presents a literature survey with all classification criteria on techniques for SO according to the problem of characteristics such as shape of the response surface (global as compared to local optimization), objective functions (single or multiple objectives) and parameter spaces (discrete or continuous parameters). The survey focuses specifically on the SO problem that involves single per-formance measure
    Keywords: Simulation Optimization; classification methods; literature survey
    JEL: C44 C61 C15 Z11
    Date: 2010–05–24
  7. By: George Verikios; James McCaw; Jodie McVernon; Anthony Harris
    Abstract: Early 2009 saw the emergence of an H1N1 influenza epidemic in North America that spread to eventually become a global pandemic. Previous work has suggested that pandemics can have large macroeconomic effects on highly affected regions; here we estimate what those effects might be for Australia. Our analysis applies the MONASH-Health model: a quarterly computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We simulate the effects of two H1N1 epidemics; the relatively mild 2009 outbreak and also a more severe episode. The analysis supports the assertion that an H1N1 epidemic could have significant short-run macroeconomic effects.
    Keywords: general equilibrium, H1N1 influenza, pandemics
    JEL: C68 E37 I18
    Date: 2011–12
  8. By: Chaton, Corinne (Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energies); Gasmi, Farid (Toulouse School of Economics (ARQADE & IDEI)); Guillerminet, Marie-Laure (Hamburg University (FNU)); Oviedo, Juan Daniel (Universidad del Rosario)
    Abstract: Motivated by recent policy events experienced by the European natural gas industry, this paper develops a simple model for analyzing the interaction between gas release and capacity investment programs as tools to improve the performance of imperfectly competitive markets. We consider a regional market in which a measure that has an incumbent release part of its gas to a marketer complements a program of investment in transport capacity dedicated to imports by the marketer, at a regulated transport charge, of competitively-priced gas. First, we examine the case where transport capacity is regulated while gas release is not, i.e., the volume of gas released is determined by the incumbent. We then analyze the effect of the "artifcial" duopoly created by the regulator when the latter regulates both gas release and transport capacity. Finally, using information on the French industry, we calibrate the basic demand and cost elements of the model and perform some simulations of these two scenarios. Besides allowing us to analyze the economic properties of these scenarios, a policy implication that comes out of the empirical analysis is that, when combined with network expansion investments, gas-release measures applied under regulatory control are indeed effective short-term policies for promoting gas-to-gas competition.
    Keywords: Natural gas, Gas release, Regulation, Competition
    JEL: L51 L95
    Date: 2010–11
  9. By: Antipov, Evgeny; Pokryshevskaya, Elena
    Abstract: To the best knowledge of authors, the use of Random forest as a potential technique for residential estate mass appraisal has been attempted for the first time. In the empirical study using data on residential apartments the method performed better than such techniques as CHAID, CART, KNN, multiple regression analysis, Artificial Neural Networks (MLP and RBF) and Boosted Trees. An approach for automatic detection of segments where a model significantly underperforms and for detecting segments with systematically under- or overestimated prediction is introduced. This segmentational approach is applicable to various expert systems including, but not limited to, those used for the mass appraisal.
    Keywords: Random forest; mass appraisal; CART; model diagnostics; real estate; automatic valuation model
    JEL: C14 C45 L85
    Date: 2010–07–29
  10. By: Liam Wagner (School of Economics, The University of Queensland); Luke Reedman (Carbon Futures, CSIRO, Energy Transformed Flagship)
    Abstract: The development of hybrid and fully electric vehicles could deliver significant reductions of emissions from the Australian transportation sector by shifting its major energy source from internal combustion to electricity. This shift towards the the use of electricity shifts the point source emissions to one which has a lower emissions intensity. Changes in load behaviour as a result of the consumer uptake of these vehicles will have significant consequences for network and central planners for the future of Australia’s electricity supply industry. This paper investigates the effects on the security of supply of energy during these previously unseen demand patterns, while also examining changes to spot market prices and changes in emissions rates. The simulation results indicate that wholesale prices during the off-peak period will increase slowly over time with controlled charging. While uncontrolled charging increases the incidence of extreme price events and a considerable number of hours with un-served energy within the network. This increase in spot prices may have consequences for regulated retail electricity tariffs. We also discuss the implementation of possible changes to the retail tariff structure to accommodate the charging of these vehicles.
    Keywords: Electricity Markets, Hybrid Vehicle, Transportation Economics.
    JEL: Q40 L91 R40
    Date: 2010–12

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