New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2010‒10‒30
six papers chosen by

  1. Assessing The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Wage Inequalities in Egypt: A Microsimulation Analysis By Rana Hendy; Chahir Zaki
  2. Does Agricultural Trade Liberalization Help The Poor in Tunisia? A Micro-Macro View in A Dynamic General Equilibrium Context By Nadia Belhaj Hassine; Veronique Robichaud; Bernard Decaluwé
  3. Limits to Growth: Tourism and Regional Labor Migration By Denise Eby Konan
  4. Equilibrium policy simulations with random utility models of labour supply By Ugo Colombino
  5. Analysing Bioenergy and Land Use Competition in a Coupled Modelling System: The Role of Bioenergy in Renewable Energy Policy in Germany By Ruth Delzeit; Horst Gömann; Karin Holm-Müller; Peter Kreins; Bettina Kretschmer; Julia Münch; Sonja Peterson
  6. Expert Elicitation Method Selection Process and Method Comparison By Angela Dalton; Alan Brothers; Stephen Walsh; Paul Whitney

  1. By: Rana Hendy (Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne & Paris School of Economics); Chahir Zaki
    Abstract: This paper develops a microsimulation analysis to evaluate the impact of trade liberalization policies in Egypt on income redistribution. Our analysis aims at identifying the effects of those measures on redistribution aspects. For this, we rely on a macro - micro approach integrating results obtained from a discrete choice model of labor supply in a Computable General Equilibrium model (CGE). In the empirical work, we use the Egyptian Labor Market and Panel Survey (ELMPS) of 1998 and 2006 as well as the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2001. This assessment allows us to find out to what extent such macroeconomic policies affect, on the microeconomic level, females poverty, wages and employment opportunities.
    Date: 2010–10
  2. By: Nadia Belhaj Hassine (Economic Research Forum (ERF)); Veronique Robichaud; Bernard Decaluwé
    Abstract: This paper is an attempt to contribute to the research on poverty-alleviation potential of trade, by exploring the poverty effects of agricultural trade liberalization in Tunisia. Specifically, the study uses a small open economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) that includes technology transfer and endogenous productivity effects from trade openness in agriculture to investigate whether the trade reforms benefit the poor and whether agricultural productivity growth boosts the potential gains from trade. The structure of the paper is as follows. Section 2 outlines the plan for empirical investigation and presents the procedure to measure total factor productivity. Section 3 describes the CGE model and explains how the link between productivity and trade policy is incorporated. Section 4 presents some features of the Tunisian economy, in particular with regard to the agricultural sector and reviews the data used in the econometric and CGE models. Section 5 reports the empirical results and section 6 synthesizes the main findings and draws some conclusions.
    Date: 2010–10
  3. By: Denise Eby Konan (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii Research Organization, Center for Sustainable Coastal Tourism)
    Abstract: The paper provides a methodology for considering the carrying capacity and limits to growth of a labor-constrained mature tourism destination. A computable general equilibrium model is used to examine the impacts of visitor expenditure growth and labor migration on HawaiÔiÕs economy. Impacts on regional income, welfare, prices, sector-level output, and gross state product are considered under alternative migration scenarios. Labor market constraints impose limits to growth in real visitor expenditures. Labor market growth with constrained visitor demand generates falling per capita household welfare.
    Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model, tourism, migration, Hawaii
    JEL: R13 D58 O15 L83
    Date: 2010–06
  4. By: Ugo Colombino
    Abstract: Many microeconometric models of discrete labour supply include alternative-specific constants meant to account for (possibly besides other factors) the density or accessibility of particular types of jobs (e.g. parttime jobs vs. full-time jobs). The most common use of these models is the simulation of tax-transfer reforms. The simulation is usually interpreted as a comparative static exercise, i.e. the comparison of different equilibria induced by different policy regimes. The simulation procedure, however, typically keeps fixed the estimated alternative-specific constants. In this note we argue that this procedure is not consistent with the comparative statics interpretation. Equilibrium means that the number of people willing to work on the various job types must be equal to the number of available jobs. Since the constants reflect the number of jobs and since the number of people willing to work change as a response to the change in tax-transfer regime, it follows that the constants should also change. A structural interpretation of the alternative-specific constants leads to the development of a simulation procedure consistent with the comparative static interpretation. The procedure is illustrated with an empirical example.
    Keywords: Random Utility; Discrete Choice; Labour Supply; Simulation of tax reforms; Alternative-specific constants; Equilibrium simulation
    JEL: C35 C53 H31 J22
    Date: 2010
  5. By: Ruth Delzeit; Horst Gömann; Karin Holm-Müller; Peter Kreins; Bettina Kretschmer; Julia Münch; Sonja Peterson
    Abstract: In the context of energy security and climate protection, biomass is given high importance. Nevertheless, land-use conflicts resulting from the cultivation of biomass and their economy-wide effects are yet to be fully understood. To shed light on this issue we link three distinctive models; a global, multi-regional general equilibrium model (DART), a regionalised agricultural sector model for Germany (RAUMIS) and a location model for biogas plants. The DART model allows capturing international and national feedback effects of an increased use of bioenergy such as increased agricultural prices. The interaction of DART and RAUMIS links global markets and connects them to the detailed specification of agricultural land use in Germany. Finally, we link this system to the newly developed location model ReSI-M that accounts for the location choices of biogas plants in Germany and the resulting regional markets for energy crop demand. As a first application of the modelling system we analyse the effects of the German Renewable Energy Source Act on German biogas production and of the EU 10%-biofuel target on German agriculture and world agricultural prices. A main result of the simulations is that accounting for existing land-use restrictions and land-use competition has a significant effect on model results
    Keywords: Bioenergy, land use, renewable energy policy, coupled models, agricultural-sector models, CGE
    JEL: C61 C68 Q15 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2010–10
  6. By: Angela Dalton; Alan Brothers; Stephen Walsh; Paul Whitney
    Abstract: Research on integrative modeling has gained considerable attention in recent years and expert opinion has been increasingly recognized as an important data source and modeling contributor. However, little research has systematically compared and evaluated expert elicitation methods in terms of their ability to link with computational models that capture human behavior and social phenomena. In this paper, we describe a decision-making process we used for evaluating and selecting a task specific elicitation method within the framework of integrative computational social-behavioral modeling. From the existing literature, we identified the characteristics of problems that each candidate method is well suited to address. A small scale expert elicitation was also conducted to evaluate the comparative strength and weaknesses of the methods against a number of consensus-based decision criteria. By developing a set of explicit method evaluation criteria and a description characterizing decision problems for the candidate methods, we seek to gain a better understanding of the feasibility and costeffectiveness of integrating elicitation methods with computational modeling techniques. This serves an important first step toward expanding our research effort and trajectory toward greater interdisciplinary modeling research of human behavior.
    Keywords: expert elicitation method.
    JEL: D90
    Date: 2010–09

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