nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2010‒08‒28
three papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. The Costs and Benefits of Duty-Free, Quota-Free Market Access for Poor Countries: Who and What Matters By Antoine Bouët, David Laborde Debucquet,Elisa Dienesch, and Kimberly Elliott
  2. OLG fife cycle model transition paths: alternate model forecast method By Evans, Richard W.; Phillips, Kerk L.
  3. DSGE Model Validation in a Bayesian Framework: an Assessment By Paccagnini, Alessia

  1. By: Antoine Bouët, David Laborde Debucquet,Elisa Dienesch, and Kimberly Elliott
    Abstract: This paper examines the potential benefits and costs of providing duty-free, quota-free market access to the least developed countries (LDCs), and the effects of extending eligibility to other small and poor countries. Using the MIRAGE computable general equilibrium model, it assesses the impact of scenarios involving different levels of coverage for products, recipient countries, and preference-giving countries on participating countries, as well as competing developing countries that are excluded. The main goal of this paper is to highlight the role that rich and emerging countries could play in helping poor countries to improve their trade performance and to assess the distribution of costs and benefits for developing countries and whether the potential costs for domestic producers are in line with political feasibility in preference-giving countries.
    Keywords: CGE modeling, trade policy, duty-free market access, technical barriers to trade,preference erosion
    JEL: D58 F13 F17
    Date: 2010–03
  2. By: Evans, Richard W.; Phillips, Kerk L.
    Abstract: The overlapping generations (OLG) model is an important framework for analyzing any type of question in which age cohorts are affected differently by exogenous shocks. However, as the dimensions and degree of heterogeneity in these models increase, the computational burden imposed by rational expectations solution methods for non-stationary equilibrium transition paths increases exponentially. As a result, these models have been limited in the scope of their use to a restricted set of applications and a relatively small group of researchers. In addition to providing a detailed description of the benchmark rational expectations computational method, this paper presents an alternative method for solving for nonstationary equilibrium transition paths in OLG life cycle models that is new to this class of model. We find that our alternate model forecast method reduces computation time to 15 percent of the benchmark time path iteration computation time, and the approximation error is less than 1 percent.
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; Heterogeneous Agents; Overlapping Generations Model; Distribution of Savings
    JEL: D31 C68 C63 D91
    Date: 2010–08–20
  3. By: Paccagnini, Alessia
    Abstract: This paper presents the concept of Model Validation applied to a Dynamic Stochastic General equilibrium Model (DSGE). The main problem discussed is the approximation of the statistical representation for a DSGE model when not all endogenous variables are observable. MonteCarlo experiments in artificial world are implemented to assess this problem by using the DSGE-VAR. Two Data Generating Processes are compared: a forward-looking and a backward-looking model. These experiments are followed by an empirical analysis with real world data for the US economy.
    Keywords: Bayesian Analysis; DSGE Models; Vector Autoregressions; MonteCarlo experiments
    JEL: C32 C15 C01 C11
    Date: 2010–05–01

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