nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2010‒05‒08
eight papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Computing the probability mass function of the maximum flow through a reliable network By Sharma Megha; Ghosh Diptesh
  2. Evaluating Downside Risks in Reliable Networks By Sharma Megha; Ghosh Diptesh
  3. Pension entitlements of French and american households: a first comparison. By Durant, D.; Frey, L.
  4. Encouraging Cooperation in Ad-hoc Mobile-Phone Mesh Networks for Rural Connectivity By Kavitha Ranganathan; Shekhar Vikramaditya
  5. A comparison of structural reform scenarios across the EU member states - Simulation-based analysis using the QUEST model with endogenous growth By Francesca D'Auria; Andrea Pagano; Marco Ratto; Janos Varga
  6. Options for International Financing of Climate Change Mitigation in Developing Countries By Mark Hayden; Paul J.J. Veenendaal; Žiga Žarnić
  7. A New Targeting - A New Take-Up?: Non-Take-Up of Social Assistance in Germany after Social Policy Reforms By Kerstin Bruckmeier; Jürgen Wiemers
  8. Impact of CCS on the Economics of Coal-Fired Power Plants: Why Investment Costs Do and Efficiency Doesn’t Matter By Lohwasser, Richard; Madlener, Reinhard

  1. By: Sharma Megha; Ghosh Diptesh
    Abstract: In this paper we propose a fast state-space enumeration based algorithm called TOP-DOWN capable of computing the probability mass function of the maximum s-t flow through reliable networks. The algorithm computes the probability mass function in the decreasing order of maximum s-t flow values in the network states. This order of enumeration makes this algorithm attractive for commonly observed reliable networks, e.g., in telecommunication networks where link reliabilities are high. We compare the performance of the TOP-DOWN algorithm with a path-based exact algorithm and show that the TOP-DOWN algorithm solves problem much faster and is able to handle much larger problems than existing algorithms.
    Date: 2009–10–01
  2. By: Sharma Megha; Ghosh Diptesh
    Abstract: Reliable networks are those in which network elements have a positive probability of failing. Conventional performance measures for such networks concern themselves either with expected network performance or with the performance of the network when it is performing well. In reliable networks modeling critical functions, decision makers are often more concerned with network performance when the network is not performing well. In this paper, we study the single-source single-destination maximum flow problem through reliable networks and propose two risk measures to evaluate such downside performance. We propose an algorithm called COMPUTE-RISK to compute downside risk measures, and report our computational experience with the proposed algorithm.
    Date: 2009–09–29
  3. By: Durant, D.; Frey, L.
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic scenarios. We implement two simulation procedures based on two assumptions relative to probabilities of default (PDs): in the first procedure, firms are assumed to have identical default probabilities; in the second, individual risk is taken into account. The empirical results indicate that these simulation procedures lead to quite different loss distributions. For instance, a negative one standard deviation shock on output leads to a maximum loss of 3.07% of the financial debt of the French manufacturing sector, with a probability of 99%, under the identical default probability hypothesis versus 2.61% with individual default probabilities.
    Keywords: Consumption and savings, pension funds, social security and public pensions, portfolio choices and investment decisions.
    JEL: E21 G11 G23 H55
    Date: 2010
  4. By: Kavitha Ranganathan; Shekhar Vikramaditya
    Abstract: This paper proposes a rating based scheme for encouraging user participation in ad-hoc mobile phone mesh networks. These networks are particularly attractive for remote/rural areas in developing countries as they do not depend on costly infrastructure and telecom operators. We evaluate our scheme using extensive simulations and find that our proposed scheme is successful in enhancing the network throughput.
    Date: 2009–08–31
  5. By: Francesca D'Auria; Andrea Pagano; Marco Ratto; Janos Varga
    Abstract: This paper calibrates the Roeger-Varga-Veld (2008) micro-founded DSGE model with endogenous growth for all EU member states using country specific structural characteristics and employs the individual country models to analyse the macroeconomic impact of various structural reforms. We analyse the costs and benefits of reforms in terms of fiscal policy instruments such as taxes, benefits, subsidies and administrative costs faced by firms. We find that less R&D intensive countries would benefit the most from R&D promoting and skill-upgrading policies. We also find that shifting from labour to consumption taxes, reducing the benefit replacement rate and relieving administrative entry barriers are the most effective measures in those countries which have high labour taxes and entry barriers.
    Keywords: Structural reforms, endogenous growth, DSGE modelling, EU member states, tax credits, tax shifts, entry barriers, human capital, D'Auria, Pagano, Ratto, Varga
    JEL: E32 E62 O30 O41
    Date: 2009–12
  6. By: Mark Hayden; Paul J.J. Veenendaal; Žiga Žarnić
    Abstract: This paper provides a model-based analysis of the potential macro-economic impacts of different options for international financing of climate change mitigation in developing countries. The model used is the multi-region and multi-sector climate change version of the WorldScan model. Following the outcome of the UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen, it makes no specific assumptions about the future international climate regime. The analysis shows that the environmental prospects systematically improve in a transition from the Clean Development Mechanism projects towards a global carbon market, while the opposite is foreseen for the economic costs. The more of a carbon market we have when moving from the project-based CDM to sectoral crediting mechanisms and internationally linked cap-and-trade, the more finance the carbon market will channel to developing countries.
    Keywords: european union eu annex I non-annex I climate conference in Copenhagen climate change mitigation clean development mechanism emission trading system the US brazil china india own participation of developing countries sectoral crediting mechanisms hayden Veenendaal Zarnic
    JEL: D58 Q40 Q50 Q51
    Date: 2010–03
  7. By: Kerstin Bruckmeier; Jürgen Wiemers
    Abstract: We present first estimates of rates of non-take-up for social assistance in Germany after the implementation of major social policy reforms in 2005. The analysis is based on a microsimulation model, which includes a detailed description of the German<br /> social assistance programme. Our findings suggest a moderate decrease in non-takeup compared to estimates before the reform. In order to identify the determinants of claiming social assistance, we estimate a model of take-up behaviour which considers potential endogeneity of the benefit level. The estimations reveal that the degree of needs, measured as the social assistance benefit level a household is eligible for, and the expected duration of eligibility are the key determinants of the take-up decision, while costs of claiming seem to play a minor role.
    Keywords: Non-Take-Up, social assistance, microsimulation
    JEL: I38 H31 C15
    Date: 2010
  8. By: Lohwasser, Richard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper we analyze how development of the economics related to CCS technology in coal-fired power plants affects market diffusion. Specifically, we (1) show the (significant) variance in economic expectations for commercial-grade CCS hard coal power plants observed in selected recent scientific publications; (2) analyze the impact of economic factors related to CCS on electricity generation costs; and (3) study possible deployment of CCS technology in Europe using the bottom-up electricity sector model HECTOR. Simulation results show that investment costs strongly influence the market deployment of coal-fired CCS power plants, leading to a share of 16% in European generation capacity by 2025 with the lowest observed investment costs of 1400 €/kW, but only 2% with the highest of 3000 €/kW. A variation of conversion efficiency between 37% and 44%, the minimum and maximum observed values, only leads to a share of CCS-equipped power plants between 13 and 15%. These findings are robust for the Base Case with a CO2 price of 43 €/t and also for sensitivities with 30 and 20 €/t CO2, but with a lower effect, as the overall share of CCS is significantly reduced at these prices.
    Keywords: Electricity market; simulation; model; CCS; power plant economics; technology adoption
    JEL: O33
    Date: 2009–11

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