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on Computational Economics |
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Issue of 2009‒05‒30
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Protopapas, M.K.; Kosmatopoulos, E.B.; Battaglia, F. |
| Abstract: | We use co-evolutionary genetic algorithms to model the players' learning process in several Cournot models, and evaluate them in terms of their convergence to the Nash Equilibrium. The ``social-learning'' versions of the two co-evolutionary algorithms we introduce, establish Nash Equilibrium in those models, in contrast to the ``individual learning'' versions which, as we see here, do not imply the convergence of the players' strategies to the Nash outcome. When players use ``canonical co-evolutionary genetic algorithms'' as learning algorithms, the process of the game is an ergodic Markov Chain, and therefore we analyze simulation results using both the relevant methodology and more general statistical tests, to find that in the ``social'' case, states leading to NE play are highly frequent at the stationary distribution of the chain, in contrast to the ``individual learning'' case, when NE is not reached at all in our simulations; to find that the expected Hamming distance of the states at the limiting distribution from the ``NE state'' is significantly smaller in the ``social'' than in the ``individual learning case''; to estimate the expected time that the ``social'' algorithms need to get to the ``NE state'' and verify their robustness and finally to show that a large fraction of the games played are indeed at the Nash Equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | Genetic Algorithms; Cournot oligopoly; Evolutionary Game Theory; Nash Equilibrium |
| JEL: | C73 |
| Date: | 2009–05–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:15375&r=cmp |
| By: | Willenbockel, Dirk; Robinson, Sherman |
| Abstract: | Changes in international trade flows and world prices are major channels through which the global financial crisis will hit developing countries. The recession in the ‘global North’ triggered by the financial crisis and the resulting slowdown of growth in China and other major emerging economies will generate declines in demand for exports from developing countries, along with a reversal of the beneficial terms-of-trade trends that have favoured net exporters of primary commodities over the last few years. How these trade shocks and terms-of-trade trends affect economic performance and welfare in low-income countries depends on country-specific characteristics and requires a differentiated analysis across countries. This study uses a multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) world trade model to gauge the impact of a slowdown in economic activity in the OECD on trade performance, world prices, and aggregate welfare in the rest of the world with a particular focus on the least developed countries (LDCs) in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. The results of the simulation analysis indicate the degree of vulnerability of different developing countries and regions distinguished in the model to impacts arising from the recession via the trade channel. |
| Keywords: | Global financial crisis; terms of trade; recession |
| JEL: | C68 F17 F47 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:15376&r=cmp |
| By: | SHIMASAWA Manabu; OGURO Kazumasa |
| Abstract: | To quantify the impacts of immigration on the Japanese economy, we present a large-scale numerical dynamic equilibrium model with OLG and a total of 16 countries and regions, both those that are industrialized including Japan, the U.S. and EU, and developing countries China, Brazil, the Philippines and Peru. Our simulation results show that immigration will improve the Japanese economy. Specifically, annual immigrant flows of 150,000 will dramatically improve the welfare of current and future generations. On the other hand, we canft expect a significant long-run improvement in welfare solely by implementing a policy increasing the consumption tax. The results indicate that substantially increased inflows of working-age immigrants would alleviate the need for future fiscal reform and also help to dramatically reduce the public pension burden on the working generations. |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:09020&r=cmp |
| By: | Chisari, Omar O.; Maquieyra, Javier; Romero, Carlos A. |
| Abstract: | In this paper we use two computable general equilibrium models to evaluate gains of liberalization of trade in services for Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. We employ two CGE models for the calculations. For the Argentine and Uruguayan cases, we apply a model built by the authors (see Chisari (2009)) based on the MPSGE. For Brazil, our study uses the GTAP model – adapted by Rutherford (2005) that also works on an MPSGE platform. We also consider two basic cases of liberalization of trade in services: 1) mobility of goods, in which there is mobility of services across borders, as it is the traditional case of exports and imports of goods, and 2) trade presence, that is location in the domestic country of new operators with a new technology for producing services. We estimate the gains from improvements in efficiency, quality and productivity of the industries of services, due to more intense competition in the domestic market as well as from reductions in the implicit mark up on domestic services due to barriers to trade. Quality advancements lead to gains in welfare of a similar order, or even higher than expected in the case of productivity improvements. To address the case of trade presence, a latent technology is defined in situ, operative or not depending on relative prices (its market share in the overall equilibrium of the economy is endogenous). This is especially relevant for the case of telecommunications. We also observe that: 1) the economy’s specific endowment of factors will limit the expected gains of the liberalization if the latent technology is unsuitable or incompatible with them, 2) governments can face some dilemmas regarding domestic market regulations, if the liberalization of trade in financial services called for a change in regulations so that the domestic demand for government bonds were to fall. |
| Keywords: | Computable general equilibrium; liberalization of trade; trade in services |
| JEL: | C68 F17 D58 |
| Date: | 2009–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:15336&r=cmp |
| By: | André Luís Leite; Romeu Braz Pereira Gomes Filho; José Valentim Machado Vicente |
| Abstract: | A variety of models has been proposed for yield curve forecasting. In this paper we present a dynamic latent factor model for Brazilian interest rate term-structure forecasting, based in three major information sources: macroeconomic variables, surveys and risk premium. We use the proposed model to produce forecasts six month ahead and we compare the results with the well known Diebold and Li (2006) and a random walk. Our forecasts appear much more accurate than the alternative models. |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcb:wpaper:186&r=cmp |
| By: | Mario Piscoya (Cedeplar-UFMG); Bernardo L. Queiroz (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | Accurate knowledge of adult mortality levels and trends in the developing world is hampered by its widespread lack of complete vital registration systems. Although knowledge of infant and child mortality was once affect by the same problem, survey-based techniques have been more successful in estimating child and infant than adult mortality. The main objective of this paper is to estimate mortality rates for the population aged 5 and above, in Peru by sex. The study evaluates the degree of coverage, and corrects the level of mortality, when necessary, using different methodologies. The literature does not indicate the best method to investigate mortality data problems. Thus, the implementation of alternative methods will improve the understanding of the mortality levels and trends in Peru in recent decades. |
| Keywords: | Peru, adult mortality, demographic methods |
| JEL: | J10 J11 J19 |
| Date: | 2009–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td351&r=cmp |