nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2009‒01‒17
eight papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Exact and heuristic algorithms for variable selection: Extended Leaps and Bounds By A. Pedro Duarte Silva
  2. Budgetary Policies in a DSGE Model with Finite Horizons By Annicchiarico, Barbara; Giammarioli, Nicola; Piergallini, Alessandro
  3. The most representative composite rank ordering of multi-attribute objects by the particle swarm optimization By Mishra, SK
  4. BIMSTEC-Japan Trade Cooperation and Poverty in Asia By John Gilbert
  5. Trade Policy, Poverty, and Income Distribution in CGE Models: An Application to SAFTA By John Gilbert
  6. Rebound and disinvestment effects in oil consumption and supply resulting from an increase in energy efficiency in the Scottish commercial transport sector By Sam Anson; Karen Turner
  7. Integrating Bioenergy into Computable General Equilibrium Models – A Survey By Bettina Kretschmer; Sonja Peterson
  8. Regional Integration in Asia and Its Effects on the EU and North America By Hiro Lee; Robert F. Owen; Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

  1. By: A. Pedro Duarte Silva (Faculdade de Economia e Gestão - Universidade Católica Portuguesa (Porto))
    Abstract: An implementation of enhanced versions of the classical Leaps and Bounds algorithm for variable selection is provided. Features of this implementation include: (i) The availability of general routines capable of handling many different statistical methodologies and comparison criteria. (ii) Routines designed for exact and heuristic searches. (iii) The possibility of dealing with problems with more variables than observations. The implementation is supplied in two different ways: i) as a C++ library with abstract classes that can be specialized to different problems and criteria. ii) as a console application ready to be applied to searches according to some of the most important comparison criteria proposed to date. The code of the C++ library and console application described here, can be freely obtained by sending an email to the author.
    Keywords: Variable Selection Algorithms; All-Subsets; Heuristics
    JEL: C52
    Date: 2009–01
  2. By: Annicchiarico, Barbara; Giammarioli, Nicola; Piergallini, Alessandro
    Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with nominal rigidities, capital accumulation and finite horizons. Our New Keynesian framework exhibits intergenerational wealth effects and is intended to investigate the macroeconomic implications of fiscal policy, which is specified by either a debt-based tax rule or a balanced-budget rule allowing for temporary deficits. When calibrated to euro area quarterly data, the model predicts that fiscal expansions generate a trade-off in output dynamics between short-term gains and medium-term losses. It is shown that the effects of fiscal shocks crucially depend upon the conduct of monetary policy. Simulation analysis suggests that balanced-budget requirements enhance the determinacy properties of feedback interest rate rules by guaranteeing inflation stabilization.
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy; Monetary Policy; Nominal Rigidities; Capital Accumulation; Finite Lifetime; Simulations.
    JEL: E52 D58 E63
    Date: 2009–01
  3. By: Mishra, SK
    Abstract: Rank-ordering of individuals or objects on multiple criteria has many important practical applications. A reasonably representative composite rank ordering of multi-attribute objects/individuals or multi-dimensional points is often obtained by the Principal Component Analysis, although much inferior but computationally convenient methods also are frequently used. However, such rank ordering – even the one based on the Principal Component Analysis – may not be optimal. This has been demonstrated by several numerical examples. To solve this problem, the Ordinal Principal Component Analysis was suggested some time back. However, this approach cannot deal with various types of alternative schemes of rank ordering, mainly due to its dependence on the method of solution by the constrained integer programming. In this paper we propose an alternative method of solution, namely by the Particle Swarm Optimization. A computer program in FORTRAN to solve the problem has also been provided. The suggested method is notably versatile and can take care of various schemes of rank ordering, norms and types or measures of correlation. The versatility of the method and its capability to obtain the most representative composite rank ordering of multi-attribute objects or multi-dimensional points have been demonstrated by several numerical examples. It has also been found that rank ordering based on maximization of the sum of absolute values of the correlation coefficients of composite rank scores with its constituent variables has robustness, but it may have multiple optimal solutions. Thus, while it solves the one problem, it gives rise to the other problem. The overall ranking of objects by maximin correlation principle performs better if the composite rank scores are obtained by direct optimization with respect to the individual ranking scores.
    Keywords: Rank ordering; standard; modified; competition; fractional; dense; ordinal; principal component; integer programming; repulsive particle swarm; maximin; absolute; correlation; FORTRAN; program
    JEL: C13 C43 C63 C14 C87 C45 C61
    Date: 2009–01–12
  4. By: John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University)
    Abstract: We review the literature on the relationship between trade policy reform and poverty, and recent approaches in the numerical simulation literature to estimating the impact of alternative trade reform scenarios. The GTAP model is then used to simulate the effect of the trade cooperation among the economies of BIMSTEC and Japan on aggregate welfare and poverty in the BIMSTEC member economies. As a case study, the results of the global model simulations are then used as an input to a more detailed model of simulation model of India, which identifies nine household groups classifed by their source of income and consumption pattern. Detailed estimates of the effect of trade reform at the household level are presented for India.
    Keywords: Trade reform, CGE, regional trading agreements, poverty, India, BIMSTEC
    JEL: F13 F17 C68 O53
    Date: 2008–12–19
  5. By: John Gilbert (Department of Economics and Finance, Utah State University)
    Abstract: We describe a new CGE model of South Asia, and its application to understanding the socio-economic aspects of SAFTA. The model currently covers India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, and the rest of South Asia. It is being expanded to include Nepal and Pakistan. The model incorporates modifications to the household structure to capture implications of reform for intra-household income changes.
    Keywords: SAFTA, CGE, Poverty
    JEL: F13 F17 C68 O53
    Date: 2008–12–19
  6. By: Sam Anson (Scottish Government Transport Directorate); Karen Turner (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: In this paper we use an energy-economy-environment computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Scottish economy to examine the impacts of an exogenous increase in energy augmenting technological progress in the domestic commercial Transport sector on the supply and use of energy. We focus our analysis on oil, as the main type of energy input used in commercial transport activity. We find that a 5% increase in energy efficiency in the commercial Transport sector leads to rebound effects in the use of oil-based energy commodities in all time periods, in the target sector and at the economy-wide level. However, our results also suggest that such an efficiency improvement may cause a contraction in capacity in the Scottish oil supply sector. This ‘disinvestment effect’ acts as a constraint on the size of rebound effects. However, the magnitude of rebound effects and presence of the disinvestment effect in the simulations conducted here are sensitive to the specification of key elasticities of substitution in the nested production function for the target sector, particularly the substitutability of energy for non-energy intermediate inputs to production.
    Keywords: general equilibrium, energy efficiency, rebound effects, disinvestment
    JEL: D57 D58 R15 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2009–01
  7. By: Bettina Kretschmer; Sonja Peterson
    Abstract: In the past years biofuels have received increased attention since they were believed to contribute to rural development, energy security and to fight global warming. It became also clear, though, that bioenergy cannot be evaluated independently of the rest of the economy and that national and international feedback effects are important. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely employed in order to study the effects of international climate policies. The main characteristic of these models is their encompassing scope: Global models cover the whole world economy disaggregated into regions and countries as well as diverse sectors of economic activity. Such a modelling framework unveils direct and indirect feedback effects of certain policies or shocks across sectors and countries. CGE models are thus well suited for the study of bioenergy/biofuel policies. One can currently find various approaches in the literature of incorporating bioenergy into a CGE framework. This paper intends to give an overview of existing approaches and to critically assess their respective power. Grouping different approaches into categories and highlighting their advantages and disadvantages is important for giving a structure to this rather recent and rapidly growing research area and to provide a guidepost for future work
    Keywords: biofuels, CGE model, climate policy
    JEL: D58 Q42 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2008–12
  8. By: Hiro Lee (Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP),Osaka University); Robert F. Owen (Institute of Economics and Management of Nantes, University of Nantes); Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Senior Economist, The World Bank)
    Abstract: Consequences of free trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 countries and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.
    Keywords: Regional integration, FTA, East Asia, welfare effects, CGE model
    JEL: C68 F15 F17
    Date: 2008–12

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