nep-cmp New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2009‒01‒03
eight papers chosen by
Stan Miles
Thompson Rivers University

  1. Structural Reform, Intra-Regional Trade, and Medium-Term Growth Prospects of East Asia and the Pacific --- Perspectives from a new multi-region model By Papa N'Diaye; Ping Zhang; Wenlang Zhang
  2. Demographic Uncertainty in Europe Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms. An Investigation with the INGENUE2 Model By Michel Aglietta; Vladimir Borgy
  3. ASAP: The After Salesman Problem By Klundert Joris van de; Wormer Laurens
  5. Forecasting British Tourist Arrivals to Balearic Islands Using Meteorological Variables and Artificial Neural Networks By Marcos Álvarez Díaz; Jaume Rosselló Nadal
  6. Impacto dos investimentos do PAC em Minas Gerais: efeitos sobre crescimento e desigualdade By Edson Paulo Domingues; Aline Souza Magalhães; Weslem Rodrigues Faria
  7. An Overview of the OECD ENV-Linkages Model By Jean-Marc Burniaux; Jean Château
  8. Interdependent Durations, Second Version By Bo E. Honore; Aureo de Paula

  1. By: Papa N'Diaye (International Monetary Fund); Ping Zhang (External Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority); Wenlang Zhang (Research Department, Hong Kong Monetary Authority)
    Abstract: This paper analyses the potential benefits from reforms aimed at promoting domestic demand in the region, as well as the effects of slower growth in the United States and the G3 on EMEAP economies.The analysis is based on simulation scenarios using an expanded version of the IMF Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) model. The GIMF model is particularly useful for conducting medium-term policy analysis, because it incorporates rich layers of intra-regional trade, production, and demand that allow the transmission mechanism of structural reforms and external shocks to be fully articulated. The simulation results show that reforms to rebalance the pattern of demand in regional economies (such as Mainland China) more towards domestic demand could entail non-negligible benefits for the EMEAP. These benefits could be even larger for those economies that more flexibly adjust to the shift in China's trade pattern. The simulation results also illustrate structural reforms in EMEAP economies will allow them to reduce vulnerabilities to economic downturns in the major advanced economies.
    Keywords: GIMF model, Slowdown; Demand rebalancing; Confidence effects
    JEL: E2 E6 F4 O4
    Date: 2008–12
  2. By: Michel Aglietta; Vladimir Borgy
    Abstract: Ageing is a main concern in Western Europe for the present half century. It impinges heavily upon the financing of retirement because a shrinking labour force will entail decelerating growth. Moreover, contrary to popular opinion and to most prospective studies which rely on deterministic demographic projections, the determinants of population size and structure are stochastic. The present paper makes use of the INGENUE2 model to assess the economic impact of demographic uncertainty in Western Europe. Demographic uncertainty affects saving, financial conditions and growth significantly from year 2025 onwards. Worst case scenarios can have crippling effects on the financing of public pension under present retirement policies. It makes all the more necessary to study alternatives. We simulate a policy that involves the development of a funding system to substitute to part of the projected increase in the contribution rate, both under deterministic and stochastic demographic forecasts
    Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium Models; international capital flows; life cycle models and saving; demographic trends and forecasts
    JEL: C68 F21 D91 J11
    Date: 2008–10
  3. By: Klundert Joris van de; Wormer Laurens (METEOR)
    Abstract: The customer contacts taking place after a sales transaction and the services involved are of increasing importance in contemporary business models. The responsiveness to service requests is a key dimension in service quality and therefore an important succes factor in this business domain. This responsiveness is of course highly dependent on the operational scheduling or dispatching decisions made in the often dynamic service settings. We consider the problem of optimizing responsiveness to service requests arriving in real time. We consider three models and formulations and present computational results on exact solution methods. The research is based on practical practical work done with the largest service organization in The Netherlands.
    Keywords: operations research and management science;
    Date: 2008
  4. By: Widad Guechtouli (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579)
    Abstract: Knowledge diffusion is a complex process. Knowledge is intangible and therefore is not easy to capitalize within an organization, or share between a set of individuals. The aim of this paper is to study the impact of two different structures of communication on both processes of knowledge transfer and individual learning, in the context of a community of practice. We will specifically compare two types of communication structures (through face-to-face interactions and through a forum) by using agent-based models. Results show that each structure has a different impact on individual learning and knowledge transfer. Though, communication through face-to-face interactions seems to make individuals learn slower than on a web forum. Conclusions are widely discussed.
    Keywords: knowledge; communication structure; communities of practice; agent-based models
    Date: 2008–12–22
  5. By: Marcos Álvarez Díaz (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra)); Jaume Rosselló Nadal (Centre de Recerca Econòmica (UIB · Sa Nostra))
    Abstract: There is a clear understanding of the benefits of getting accurate predictions that allow diminishing the uncertainty inherent to the tourism activity. Managers, entrepreneurs, politicians and many other agents related to the tourism sector need good forecasts to plan an efficient use of tourism-related resources. In spite of the consensus on this need, tourism forecasters must make an even greater effort to satisfy the industry requirements. In this paper, the possibility of improving the predictive ability of a tourism demand model with meteorological explanatory variables is investigated using the case study of monthly British tourism demand to the Balearic Islands (Spain). For this purpose, a transfer function model and a causal artificial neural network are fitted. Meanwhile, the results are compared with those obtained by non-causal methods: an ARIMA model and an autoregressive neural network. The results seem to indicate that adding meteorological variables can increase the predictive power but, however, the most accurate prediction is obtained using a non-causal model, specifically an autoregressive neural network.
    Keywords: Tourism, weather anomalies, climate change, transfer function modeling, United Kingdom.
    Date: 2008
  6. By: Edson Paulo Domingues (Cedeplar-UFMG); Aline Souza Magalhães (Cedeplar-UFMG); Weslem Rodrigues Faria (Cedeplar-UFMG)
    Abstract: The Brazilian federal government has recently set out plans encompassing detailed public expenditure programs and targets on infra-structure investment (PAC, Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento). We investigate the sectoral, regional and national economic consequences of the PAC in Minas Gerais. Our modeling encompasses much detail. Firstly, we use a large-scale multi-regional CGE model of Brazil. The model is both bottom-up and top-down: bottom-up for Brazil's 27 states, and top-down for Brazil's 558 microrregions. Despite the high level of regional disaggregation, the level of sectoral disaggregation is also high, at 36 sectors. Secondly, we model the PAC in detail, considering each of the 9 sets of expenditure programs under the 2008-11 plan. We find that the PAC can have strong impacts in Minas Gerais, but can contribute to a increase in regional inequality in the state in long run.
    Keywords: regional modeling, general equilibrium, infrastructure, regional inequality, Brazil
    JEL: R11 R13 R58 C68
    Date: 2008–10
  7. By: Jean-Marc Burniaux; Jean Château
    Abstract: This Working Paper presents a summary description of the OECD ENV-Linkages General Equilibrium model. This model has been developed by the Environment Directorate of the OECD Secretariat in order to assess the economic impact of abating Greenhouse Gases using several different economic instruments. The paper is divided into two parts. The first provides a brief description to the structure of the ENV-Linkages model and of its main equations. The second section describes the calibration method, first to fit the model on base year data, and second to dynamically produce a baseline emissions projection. <P>Description synthétique du modèle ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE <BR>Ce document de travail contient une description simplifiée du modèle d’Équilibre Général ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE. Ce modèle a été développé par la Direction de l’Environnement afin de quantifier les impacts économiques des réductions d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre en utilisant plusieurs instruments différents. Ce document contient deux sections. La première est une description simplifiée de la structure du modèle ENV-Linkages et de ses principales équations. La seconde section décrit la méthode de calibration utilisée, d’abord, pour ajuster le modèle aux données pour l’année initiale et, ensuite, pour produire une projection des émissions de référence.
    Keywords: computable and other applied general equilibrium models, exhaustible resources and economic development, energy and macroeconomy, modèle d'équilibre général appliqué et calculable, ressources non renouvelables et développement économique, énergie et macroéconomie
    JEL: D58 Q32 Q43
    Date: 2008–12–17
  8. By: Bo E. Honore (Department of Economics, Princeton University); Aureo de Paula (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: This paper studies the identification of a simultaneous equation model involving duration measures. It proposes a game theoretic model in which durations are determined by strategic agents. In the absence of strategic motives, the model delivers a version of the generalized accelerated failure time model. In its most general form, the system resembles a classical simultaneous equation model in which endogenous variables interact with observable and unobservable exogenous components to characterize a certain economic environment. In this paper, the endogenous variables are the individually chosen equilibrium durations. Even though a unique solution to the game is not always attainable in this context, the structural elements of the economic system are shown to be semiparametrically point identified. We also present a brief discussion of estimation ideas and a set of simulation studies on the model.
    Keywords: Keywords: duration, empirical games, identification
    JEL: C10 C30 C41
    Date: 2007–04–24

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