|
on Computational Economics |
|
Issue of 2008‒11‒04
thirteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Alexander Staus (Institute for Agricultural Policy and Agricultural Markets, University of Hohenheim) |
| Abstract: | Modeling consumer choice in different areas has lead to an increase use of discrete choice models. Probit or Multinomial Logit Models are often the base of further empirical research of consumer choice. In some of these models the equations to solve have no closed-form expression. They include multi-dimensional integrals which can not be solved analytically. Simulation methods have been developed to approximate a solution for these integrals. This paper describes the Standard Halton sequence and a modification of it, the Shuffled Halton sequence. Both are simulation methods which can reduce computational effort compared to a random sequence. We compare the simulation methods in their coverage of the multi-dimensional area and in their estimation results using data of consumer choice on grocery store formats. |
| Keywords: | simulation, mixed logit, halton sequence |
| JEL: | C15 C25 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hoh:hoh420:17&r=cmp |
| By: | Decoster A; De Swerdt K; Orsini K |
| Abstract: | The adverse distributional effects of a flat tax are well known and have been documented by empirical research in several countries, including Belgium. Advocates of the flat tax argue, correctly, that many of these studies do not take into account agents’ behavioural reactions and possible feed back effects. One of the important effects in this context is the potential increase in labour supply and the resulting increase in the taxable base and decrease in unemployment allowances. In this study we calculate the cost recovery based on a micro-simulation model that includes a labour supply model. We find that there is indeed a clearly positive effect on labour supply and hence also on the tax base. By introducing a revenue-neutral flat tax, labour supply increases by approximately 47,000 full-time equivalents. However, the effect is limited because, compared to a static scenario, the cost recovery only allows the revenue-neutral flat tax to decrease from 38.5% to 37%. Furthermore, there is little or no impact of these employment effects on the strongly regressive nature of a flat tax reform. |
| Keywords: | flat tax, income distribution, microsimulation, labour supply |
| JEL: | C81 D31 H22 H24 J22 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em8/08&r=cmp |
| By: | Juliette Rouchier (GREQAM - Groupement de Recherche en Économie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille - Université de la Méditerranée - Aix-Marseille II - Université Paul Cézanne - Aix-Marseille III - Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales - CNRS : UMR6579) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores diverse dimensions of the use of agent-based simulation used for the analysis of market dynamics. The literature that is studied is in majority related to economics theory, but can also be part of marketing studies. The main point in this reearch is the focus that authors put on learning, diffusion, imitation and bouded rationality. Markets are seen through several sub-divisions, such as: buyer-seller interpersonal relationship; views on the global chain, including consumer-producer relationships and learning; financial markets are also widely studied. |
| Keywords: | learning ; agent-based simulation ; markets ; diffusion ; ACE ; loyauté |
| Date: | 2008–10–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00334051_v1&r=cmp |
| By: | Fabrice Talla Nobibon; Laurens Cherchye; Bram De Rock; Jereon Sabbe; Frederic Vermeulen |
| Abstract: | We consider the computational problem of testing whether observed household consumption behavior satisfies the Collective Axiom of Revealed Preferences (CARP). We propose a graph such that the existence of a node-partitioning giving rise to two induced subgraphs that are acyclic implies that the data satisfy CARP. Furthermore, we propose and implement heuristics that are quite fast, that can be used to check reasonably large datasets for CARP and that can be of particular interest when used prior to computationally demanding approaches. Finally, from the computational results we conclude that these heuristics can be e ective in testing CARP. |
| Keywords: | Collective model of household consumption; Collective Axiom of Revealed Preference; Pareto efficiency; Directed graph; Graph coloring; Graph partitioning; Acyclic subgraph; Heuristics |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_028&r=cmp |
| By: | Joseph Francis Francois (Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria); Ganeshan Wignaraja |
| Abstract: | The Asian countries are once again focused on options for large, comprehensive regional integration schemes. In this paper we explore the implications of such broad-based regional trade initiatives in Asia, highlighting the bridging of the East and South Asian economies. We place emphasis on the alternative prospects for insider and outsider countries. We work with a global general equilibrium model of the world economy, benchmarked to a projected 2017 sets of trade and production patterns. We also work with gravity-model based estimates of trade costs linked to infrastructure, and of barriers to trade in services. Taking these estimates, along with tariffs, into our CGE model, we examine regionally narrow and broad agreements, all centered on extending the reach of ASEAN to include free trade agreements with combinations of the northeast Asian economies (PRC, Japan, Korea) and also the South Asian economies. We focus on a stylized FTA that includes goods, services, and some aspects of trade cost reduction through trade facilitation and related infrastructure improvements. What matters most for East Asia is that China, Japan, and Korea be brought into any scheme for deeper regional integration. This matter alone drives most of the income and trade effects in the East Asia region across all of our scenarios. The inclusion of the South Asian economies in a broader regional agreement sees gains for the East Asian and South Asian economies. Most of the East Asian gains follow directly from Indian participation. The other South Asian players thus stand to benefit if India looks East and they are a part of the program, and to lose if they are not. Interestingly, we find that with the widest of agreements, the insiders benefit substantively in terms of trade and income while the aggregate impact on outside countries is negligible. Broadly speaking, a pan-Asian regional agreement would appear to cover enough countries, with a great enough diversity in production and incomes, to actually allow for regional gains without substantive third-country losses. However, realizing such potential requires overcoming a proven regional tendency to circumscribe trade concessions with rules of origin, NTBs, and exclusion lists. The more likely outcome, a spider web of bilateral agreements, carries with it the prospect of significant outsider costs (i.e. losses) both within and outside the region. |
| Keywords: | regionalism, Asia FTAs, ASEAN, preferential trade, gravity model of services trade, trade costs and infrastructure |
| JEL: | F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2008_13&r=cmp |
| By: | Arseniy S. Karkach (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | - |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2008-010&r=cmp |
| By: | Eric Severin (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, SAMOS - Statistique Appliquée et MOdélisation Stochastique - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, CIS - Lab of Computer and Information Science - Helsinki University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This article deals with the usefulness of neuronal networks in the area of corporate finance. Firstly, we highlight the initial applications of neural networks. One can distinguish two main types: layer networks and self organizing maps. As Altman al. (1994) underlined, the use of layer networks has improved the reclassifying rate in models of bankruptcy forecasting. These first applications improved bankruptcy forecasting by showing a relationship between capital structure and corporate performance. The results highlighted in our second part, show the pertinence of the use of the algorithm of Kohonen applied to qualitative variables (KACM). More particularly, in line with Altman (1968, 1984), one can suggest the coexistence of negative and positive effects of financial structure on performance. This result allows us to question scoring models and to conclude as to a non-linear relationship. In a larger framework, the methodology of Kohonen has allowed a better perception of the factors able to explain the leasing financing (Cottrell et al., 1996). The objective is here to explain the factors of the choice between leasing and banking loans. By using different variables, we highlight the characteristics of firms which most often use leasing. The corporate financing policy could be explained by: the cost of the financing, advantages of leasing or by the minimization of agency costs in leasing, we highlight a relationship between resorting to leasing and credit rationing. |
| Keywords: | neural netwoks, SOM, corporate finance |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:paris1:hal-00325117_v1&r=cmp |
| By: | Narazani E; Shima I |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the effects of Minimum Guaranteed Income (MGI) schemes on labour supply of Italian married couples by applying a behavioural micro-simulation tax-benefit model. The Tax-Benefit Model applied is the static micro-simulation model of EUROMOD. A household labour supply model is simulated with different tax rules where MGI is an option. The simulated tax regimes are Negative Income Tax (NIT), Workfare Tax (WF) and Universal Basic Income (UBI). These exercises of behavioural micro-simulation tax-benefit are performed at national and regional level. Our main finding is that changes in labour supply due to these tax-transfer rules are small and this is in favour of such income support policies. Concerning tax-transfer rules without hour’s constraint, such as UBI and NIT, they imply labour disincentives more in the South than in the North of the country, and the effect is amplified with the increase of generosity level. Considering the welfare effects of these tax-transfer rules, we find that there are more “winners” than “losers” in the south than in the north as there are more households participating in these MGI schemes due to their low income status. |
| Keywords: | Labour Supply, Discrete Choice Model, Minimum Guaranteed Income, Regional Differences |
| JEL: | C25 H24 H31 I38 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em6/08&r=cmp |
| By: | Park, Innwon; Park, Soonchan |
| Abstract: | The spaghetti bowl phenomenon expected from the proliferating East Asian regional trade agreements (RTAs) is worrisome. In particular, the complicated web of hub-and-spoke type of overlapping free trade agreements (FTAs) can result in high costs for verifying rules of origin (RoO). As an alternative policy option to avoid the negative effect of trade deflection, customs unions (CUs) should be examined. Most of the theoretical analyses on the formation of CUs highlight stronger positive welfare effects compared to FTAs. However, there is a lack of empirical evidence to support the second best theory of customs unions. This paper is an attempt to fill this gap by applying two methodologies, an ex-ante simulation approach and an ex-post econometric approach. We quantitatively estimate the trade effect of CUs and FTAs by adopting a Gravity regression analysis. In general, we find that a CU is a superior type of RTA to an FTA in terms of creating more intra-union trade. In addition to analyzing the trade effects of RTAs according to type, we quantitatively evaluate the welfare and output effects of CUs for East Asia (an ASEAN+3 CU and a China-Japan-Korea CU) compared to FTAs by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model analysis. The East Asian CUs adopt a system of common external tariffs (CET) based on simple-averaged, import-weighted, consumption-weighted, and minimum rates. Overall, we find that the ASEAN+3 CU with the minimum CET is the most desirable type of RTA for both East Asian member countries and the world economy as a whole. |
| Keywords: | free trade agreements; customs unions; rules of origin; common external tariffs; Gravity; CGE; East Asia; ASEAN+3 |
| JEL: | F15 C68 F13 O53 |
| Date: | 2008–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:11301&r=cmp |
| By: | Columbino U; Locatelli M; Narazani E; O'Donoghue C; Shima I |
| Abstract: | We develop and estimate a microeconometric model of household labour supply in four European countries representative of different economies and welfare policy regimes: Denmark, Italy, Portugal and United Kingdom. We then simulate, under the constraint of constant total net tax revenue, the effects of 10 hypothetical tax-transfer reforms which include various alternative versions of a Basic Income policy. We produce various indexes and criteria according to which the reforms can be ranked. The exercise can be considered as one of empirical optimal taxation, where the optimization problem is solved computationally rather than analytically. As long as the ranking of reforms is done according to welfaristic criteria it turns out that the most successful policies are those involving non means-tested versions of basic income and adopting progressive tax-rules. When other criteria (such as the implied top marginal tax rate or the effect on female labour supply) are also taken into account, the picture changes: universalistic policies remain optimal and feasible in countries like Denmark where female participation rates are very high; instead, in countries with low female participation rates (like Italy) universalistic policies appear to be too costly in terms of implied top marginal tax rates and in terms of adverse effects on female participation, and means-tested policies such as Work-Fare or Negative Income Tax seem more desirable. |
| Keywords: | Basic Income, Minimum Guaranteed Income, Models of Labour Supply, Tax Reforms, Welfare Evaluation |
| JEL: | C25 H24 H31 I38 |
| Date: | 2008–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ese:emodwp:em5/08&r=cmp |
| By: | O'Donoghue, Cathal; Hanley, Nick; Hynes, Stephen |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the use of spatial microsimulation in the aggregation of regional environmental benefit values. The developed spatial microsimulation model uses simulated annealing to match the Irish Census of Agriculture data to a Contingent Valuation Survey that contains information on Irish farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) to have the corncrake restored as a common sight in the Irish countryside. We then use this matched farm survey and Census information to produce regional and national total WTP figures, and compare these to figures derived using more standard approaches to calculating aggregate environment benefit values. The main advantage of the spatial microsimulation approach for environmental benefit value aggregation is that it allows one to account for the heterogeneity in the target population. Results indicate that the microsimulation modelling approach provides aggregate WTP estimates of a similar magnitude as those produced using the usual sample mean WTP aggregation at the national level, but yields regional aggregate values which are significantly different. |
| Keywords: | corncrake conservation; willingness to pay; aggregation spatial microsimulation; Environmental benefit value |
| Date: | 2008–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stl:stledp:2008-08&r=cmp |
| By: | Carlo Mazzaferro; Marcello Morciano |
| Abstract: | We present the technical structure of CAPP_DYN, a population based dynamic microsimulation model for the analysis of long term redistributive effects of social policies, developed at CAPP (Centro di Analisi delle Politiche Pubbliche) to study the intergenerational and the intragenerational redistributive effects of reforms in the social security system. The model simulates probabilistically the socio-demographic and economic evolution of a representative sample of the Italian population for the period 2005-2050. After a short review of the existing similar models for the Italian economy, a rather detailed analysis and discussion of the functioning of the model as well as a description of estimation procedures employed in each single module of the models is offered. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic microsimulation; lifetime and intragenerational redistribution; social security systems |
| JEL: | C51 C52 H55 |
| Date: | 2008–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:cappmo:08092&r=cmp |
| By: | Diao, Xinshen; Doukkali, Rachid; Yu, Bingxin |
| Abstract: | "This study evaluates the potential impact of the recent rise in world food prices on the Moroccan economy and possible policy options to respond to it. The study focuses mainly on the poverty effects of such an external shock and the possible policy responses to it. A new social accounting matrix (SAM) and a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model have been developed for this study based on micro-level data in combination with sectoral and economywide data. The CGE model simulations show that while increased world food prices hurt poor consumers, the general equilibrium effect of welfare loss is modest. Agricultural producers gain, and benefits to small farmers are especially large. The simulation of import subsidies shows that while such policy options can temporarily stabilize domestic prices, the benefits to consumers are at the expense of producers. However, the model results indicate that there are win-win options for Morocco if policies are based on a longer-term objective. Direct transfers to poor consumers, combined with increased public investment in agriculture to improve agricultural productivity, is a win-win strategy that the government should consider. Low productivity in staple crop production is the dominant reason for poverty among Moroccan farmers. Improving this productivity can also benefit poor consumers by lowering domestic food prices." from authors' abstract |
| Keywords: | Food prices, Agricultural policy, Social accounting matrix, Computable general equilibrium (CGE), Small farmers, |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:813&r=cmp |