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on Computational Economics |
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Issue of 2007‒04‒28
six papers chosen by |
| By: | Bruno Contini; Roberto Leombruni; Matteo Richiardi |
| Abstract: | What is the relationship, if any, between Experimental Economics and Agent-based Computational Economics? Experimental Economics (EXP) investigates individual behaviour (and the emergence of aggregate regularities) by means of human subject experiments. Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), on the other hand, studies the relationships between the micro and the macro level with the aid of artificial experiments. Note that the way ACE makes use of experiments to formulate theories is indeed similar to the way EXP does. The question we want to address is whether they can complement and integrate with each other. What can Agent-based computational Economics give to, and take from, Experimental Economics? Can they help and sustain each other, and ultimately gain space out of their restricted respective niches of practitioners? We believe that the answer to all these questions is yes: there can be and there should be profitable “contaminations” in both directions, of which we provide a first comprehensive discussion. |
| Keywords: | Experimental Economics, Agent-based Computational Economics, Agent-Based Models, Simulation. |
| JEL: | B4 C9 C63 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wplabo:45&r=cmp |
| By: | Roberto Leombruni; Matteo Richiardi |
| Abstract: | Most Oecd Countries are experiencing a rapid population ageing. Italy adds to this picture a very low labour market participation of the elders, so that most projections of the impact of ageing on the labour market are rather pessimistic. However, there are other long run modifications currently underway that will presumably have a sizeable impact on the labour market, above all changes in the retirement legislation, in educational choices and participation behaviour. In this paper we present LABORsim, an agent based microsimulation model of labour supply, which offers new insights on the likely evolution of the labour force in the next decades in Italy. LABORsim integrates the current demographic projections with simulation modules modelling retirement rules, retirement behaviours, migrations, education and participation choices, plus a consolle to implement various policy scenario analyses. When all these factors are taken into account, projections for next decades are not that pessimistic. In most scenarios, the overall participation rate is expected to increase steadily for the next two decades, while shortages in the labour force supply and an unfavourable dynamics for the economic dependency rate are expected to show up only after 2020, when the baby boom generations will arrive at their retirement ages. This is not enough, however, to allow Italy to meet the EU Stockolm and Lisbon targets for male and female employment rates for many decades to come. The sharp increase in the participation rates for the elderly (aged 55-64), mainly driven by the recent changes in the retirement eligibility criteria, will make it possible to meet the Stockholm target of 50% employment rate in this age group by 2015, i.e. with only 5 years of delay. |
| Keywords: | microsimulation, participation, employment, retirement, education, policy evaluation. |
| JEL: | E24 H3 H55 I2 J1 J2 J6 N4 O52 C63 |
| Date: | 2006 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cca:wplabo:46&r=cmp |
| By: | Fent, Thomas |
| Abstract: | How individual behaviour is determined or at least influenced by social norms is one of the classic questions of social theory. We consider a norm as a rule guiding individual decisions concerning rituals, beliefs, traditions, and routines. Whenever coordinated behaviour is enforced without the help of an authority, this may be due to social norms. The individual being in the situation of taking a decision at the micro level is guided by social norms imposed at the macro level. The set of all individual decisions in a society generates the macro level behaviour of the system which may strengthen or weaken the existing social norms. Thus, the long run development of social norms is the result of collective dynamics within a social network. We use an agent based simulation model to investigate the emergence, stability, and replacement of social norms within a population of artificial agents. A social network connecting the agents serves to communicate the social norms and the actual behaviour among the agent population. The agents in the network possess two types of links connecting them with their ingroup and with their outgroup, respectively. Agents have the desire to be associated and accepted by the members of their ingroup and they want to be different from the members of their outgroup. Consequently, they derive a utility from adhering to the social norm of their ingroup and from deviating from the social norm of their outgroup. Agents may adopt their behaviour according to the norms given by their ingroup and outgroup. Thus, our model explains under what conditions social norms prevail within a subgroup of the society or even become global norms being respected within the whole population. |
| Keywords: | social norms; sociel networks; social interaction; collective social dynamics; ingroup; outgroup; agent based modelling |
| JEL: | C63 C61 Z13 D85 |
| Date: | 2006–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2841&r=cmp |
| By: | Trimborn, Timo |
| Abstract: | We derive the well-known continuity principle for adjoint variables for preannounced or anticipated changes in parameters for continuous-time, infinite-horizon, perfect foresight optimization models. For easy and intuitive numerical computation of the resulting multi point boundary value problem we suggested to simulate the resulting differential algebraic system representing the first order conditions. By ensuring that the state variables and the adjoint variables are continuous, potential jumps in the control variables are calculated automatically. This can be easily conducted with the relaxation algorithm as proposed by Trimborn et al. (2007). We solve a Ramsey model extended by an elementary Government sector numerically. Simulations of a preannounced increase in the consumption tax show a qualitative different pattern depending on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. |
| Keywords: | anticipated shocks; continuous-time optimization; numerical solution |
| JEL: | C61 C63 O40 |
| Date: | 2007–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-363&r=cmp |
| By: | Rizwana Siddiqui |
| Abstract: | Recently, gender-aware computable general equilibrium models (CGE) have been developed to analyse the impact of trade liberalization, with focus on a gender-disaggregated analysis of the production side of the economy. However, these studies ignore the gender-specific consumption effects due to the paucity of gender disaggregated data. We introduce intra-household allocation for the first time in a CGE-framework. The data is arranged in a gender-aware social accounting matrix, which reveals the hidden work of women (market and non-market). This study analyses the gender dimensions of the impact of economic reforms using three types of poverty indicators - FGT, capability, and relative time poverty - calculated on the basis of the simulation results. The study mainly found out that both trade liberalization and cuts in government expenditure are pro-rich. Within poor households, both policies hurt women more than men. Despite declines in absolute poverty in both exercises, the gender composition of the poor population changes in the majority of households. In the trade liberalization exercise, poverty among women relative to men increases in poor households and decreases among the rich, leading to an overall increase in the relative poverty of women in Pakistan. However, in the fiscal adjustment exercise, the incidence of poverty remains constant. In both exercises, time poverty among women relative to men increases in rural areas and decreases in urban areas, leading to an increase in relative poverty among women in Pakistan. The poverty of capabilities among men and women increases in a similar way after trade liberalization when measured by the infant mortality rate, but it affects women more negatively when measured by the literacy rate. Cuts in government expenditure also increase capability poverty among women more than men in both regions and in Pakistan as a whole. The study concludes that prosperity (increase in income), as well as education, can help reduce the gender gap as poverty decreases in relatively rich households, whether it is measured in monetary terms, capability terms, or in terms of time-use. |
| Keywords: | Pakistan, Gender, CGE, Trade Policy, Public Policy, Time Allocation, Household Production and Intra-House Allocation, Poverty and Capability Development |
| JEL: | O53 J16 C68 O24 J38 J22 D13 I32 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2007-13&r=cmp |
| By: | Fida Karam (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Bernard Decaluwé (Université de Laval - Département d'Economie) |
| Abstract: | Recent economic literature on the impact of migration on the country of origin has not successfully analyzed the effect of migration on unemployment and wage rate especially in urban area. Using a detailed CGE model applied to the moroccan economy, we are able to show that if we take into account simultaneously moroccan emigration to European Union, immigration from Sub-Saharan Africa into Morocco and rural-urban migration, the impact on wage rate and unemployment is ambiguous. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect labor market, migration, computable general equilibrium model. |
| JEL: | C68 F22 J44 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:bla07016&r=cmp |