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on Computational Economics |
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Issue of 2007‒03‒17
seven papers chosen by |
| By: | Kleijnen,Jack P.C. (Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | This article reviews Kriging (also called spatial correlation modeling). It presents the basic Kriging assumptions and formulas. contrasting Kriging and classic linear regression metamodels. Furthermore, it extends Kriging to random simulation, and discusses bootstrapping to estimate the variance of the Kriging predictor. Besides classic one-shot statistical designs such as Latin Hypercube Sampling, it reviews sequentialized and customized designs. It ends with topics for future research. |
| Keywords: | kriging;metamodel;response surface;interpolation;design |
| JEL: | C0 C1 C9 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:kubcen:200713&r=cmp |
| By: | Kerstin Ronneberger; Maria Berrittella; Francesco Bosello; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper the global agricultural land use model KLUM is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) GTAP in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on the biophysical aspects of land into a state-ofthe- art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasize the impact and relevance of the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent. |
| Keywords: | Land-use change, computable general equilibrium modeling, integrated assessment, climate change |
| JEL: | C68 R14 Q17 Q24 |
| Date: | 2006–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:105&r=cmp |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Budy P. Resosudarmo (Australian National University) |
| Abstract: | Economic structure, households energy consumption pattern, and household's pattern of factor income in developing countries may typically be different with those of the developed countries, hence the distributional impact of energy price reforms could be. This may be portrayed using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with disaggregated households that allows for rich and accurate distributional story. Using this method, counter-factual scenarios analysis of recent energy price reform in Indonesia is carried out. The result suggests that vehicle fuels subsidy is regressive but increasing the price of domestic fuel (such as kerosene) tends to increase inequality, unless accompanied by a proper and effective compensation scheme. Distributional impact does depend on compensation scheme, its form and its effectiveness. Cash transfers to the poor with moderate ineffectiveness, for example, could not even prevent the increase in poverty nation-wide. Giving more cash to urban poor than to rural poor might have been better than a simple uniform cash transfers, due to urban poor's dependence on kerosene. The result also suggests that non-cash compensation, by subsidizing the poor's education and health spending may not be effective to mitigate the reform despite its desirability as longer-term poverty alleviation programs. |
| Keywords: | Energy price reform, Distribution, CGE, Indonesia |
| JEL: | D30 D50 |
| Date: | 2007–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200701&r=cmp |
| By: | Maria Berrittella; Katrin Rehdanz; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | Water resources are unevenly spread in China. Especially the basins of the Yellow, Hui and Hai rivers in the North are rather dry. To increase the supply of water in these basins, the South-to-North Water Transfer project (SNWT) was launched. Using a computable general equilibrium model this study estimates the impact of the project on the economy of China and the rest of the world. We contrast three alternative groups of scenarios. All are directly concerned with the South-to-North water transfer project to increase water supply. In the first group of scenarios additional supply implies productivity gains. We call it the “non-market” solution. The second group of scenarios is called “market solution”. The market price for water adjusts such that supply and demand are equated again. In the third group of simulations the economic implications of China’s capital investment in infrastructure for the water South-North water transfer project is analyzed. Finally, the investment is combined with the increased capacity of water. If an increase in water supply in China leads to an increase in productivity of their water-intensive goods and services (non-market solution) this would result in a huge positive welfare effect from increased production and export. The effect on China’s welfare would still be positive, if a market for water would exist (market solution), but the world as a whole would lose. The negative effect for the rest of the world is largely explained by a deterioration of its terms-of-trade. Well functioning water markets in China are unlikely to exist. |
| Keywords: | Computable General Equilibrium, South-North Water Transfer Project, Water Policy, Water Scarcity |
| JEL: | D58 R13 Q25 Q28 |
| Date: | 2006–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:117&r=cmp |
| By: | Spiliopoulos, Leonidas |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the question of strategic change in humans’ be- havior conditional on opponents’ play. In order to implement this e |
| Keywords: | learning; artifical intelligence; mixed strategy; game theory; repeated games; behavioral game theory; ewa; reinforcement learning; fictitious play; simulations; experimental economics; computational economics; non-cooperative games |
| JEL: | C91 C72 C73 |
| Date: | 2007–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:2178&r=cmp |
| By: | Jacqueline M. Hamilton; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin) |
| Abstract: | We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals – as Western European international tourist demand falls – but later increase numbers – as tourism demand from increasingly rich tropical countries grows. In Ireland and the UK, the regional pattern of demand shifts is similar to the international one: Tourism shifts north. In Germany, the opposite pattern is observed as the continental interior warms faster than the coast: Tourism shifts south. |
| Keywords: | International tourism, domestic tourism, climate change, regional impacts |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2006–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:115&r=cmp |
| By: | Kenneth M. Strzepek; Gary W. Yohe; Richard S.J. Tol (Economic and Social Research Institute, Dublin); Mark Rosegrant |
| Abstract: | The High Aswan Dam converted a variable and uncertain flow of river water into a predictable and controllable flow. We use a computable general equilibrium model of the Egyptian economy to estimate the economic impact of the High Aswan Dam. We compare the 1997 economy as it was to the 1997 economy as it would have been for 72 historical, pre-dam water flows. The steady water flow increased transport productivity, while the seasonal shift in water supply allowed for a shift towards more valuable summer crops. These static effects are worth LE 4.9 billion. Investments in transport and agriculture increased as a consequence. Assuming that Egypt is a small open economy, this is worth another LE 1.1 billion. The risk premium on the reduced variability is estimated to be LE 1.1 billion for a modest risk aversion, and perhaps LE 4.4 billion for a high risk aversion. The total gain of LE 7.1 billion equals 2.7% of GDP. |
| Keywords: | Egypt, High Aswan Dam, computable general equilibrium model, risk premium, water supply |
| JEL: | C68 O13 Q25 |
| Date: | 2006–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sgc:wpaper:111&r=cmp |