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on Computational Economics |
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Issue of 2007‒01‒06
two papers chosen by |
| By: | Philippe D Karam; Doug Hostland |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the specification of a model that was constructed to assess debt sustainability in emerging market economies. Key features of the model include external and fiscal sectors, which allow assessment of external and public debt in a unified framework; public and external debt, which both have an explicit maturity structure along with a distinction between denomination in domestic versus foreign currency to facilitate debt management analysis; monetary and fiscal policy, which are endogenous and specified using explicit forward-looking policy rules; an endogenous risk premium on public and external debt; and a mechanism for invoking a sudden stop in private capital flows. The paper provides an overview of the basic structure of the model, outlines the methodology used to calibrate the parameters, and illustrates the key properties of the model with reference to dynamic responses of selected variables to shocks of interest. |
| Keywords: | Debt sustainability , dynamic analysis , Monte Carlo simulations , Debt sustainability analysis , Emerging markets , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2006–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/268&r=cmp |
| By: | Celine Rochon; Andrew Feltenstein |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study the impact of labor market restructuring and foreign direct investment on the banking sector, using a dynamic general equilibrium model with a financial sector. Numerical simulations are performed using stylized Chinese data, and banks failures are generated through increases in the growth rate of the labor force, a revaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in debt issue to finance the government deficit, as compared to a benchmark scenario in which banks remain solvent. Thus bank failures can result from what might seem to be either beneficial economic trends, or correct monetary and fiscal policies. We introduce fiscal policies that modify relative factor prices by lowering the capital tax rate and increasing the tax rate on labor. Such policies can prevent banking failures by raising the return to capital. It is shown that such fiscal policies are, in the short run, welfare reducing. |
| Keywords: | Banking failures , fiscal policies , Banking , China , Fiscal policy , Tax rates , Labor markets , Foreign investment , Economic models , |
| Date: | 2006–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:06/263&r=cmp |