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on Computational Economics |
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Issue of 2006‒02‒05
fifteen papers chosen by |
| By: | Yoshitaka Kajita; Satoshi Toi; Hiroshi Tatsumi |
| Abstract: | Land use is changeable in the urban area, depending upon the economical mechanism of market. The controlled urbanization area is made a region where the urbanization should be controlled by the city planning and zoning act. However, in the zone, there are also many areas where form regulation of the building is looser than the urbanization zone which should form a city area. Therefore disorderly development acts, such as location of the large-scale commercial institution and leisure facilities unsuitable for circumference environment, are accepted in the controlled urbanization area. On the other hand, energies decrease in existing village by population decrease and declining birthrate and a growing proportion of elderly people become a problem. In order to cope with this problem, it is important to understand the past conditions of land use for the urban planning. This paper describes the spatial structure of urbanization control districts based on the present conditions and the change structure of land use by using mesh data surveyed and the copy of the development permission register in a local hub-city in Japan. Land use forecasting systems are designed using neural network. Although land use is classified separately in every surveyed year, the common classification of land use is proposed, considering the similarity of spatial distributions and the physical meanings of land use. Then, the distribution by mesh at each division of land use is studied. Spatial distribution of land use and its transition are also discussed. Next, land use forecasting models are made out using neural network. The feature and structure of change in the land use of an area depends on whether development projects are carried out or not. Therefore, all of the meshes are divided into two groups, and forecasting models are designed. Though our proposed approach is a macroscopic forecasting method of land use, it is useful in the investigation of urban policies for development projects and in the evaluation of their effects. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p415&r=cmp |
| By: | James Giesecke; John Madden |
| Abstract: | In recent years many universities have commissioned studies of the effect of their institution on the local economy. Typically these impact studies have concentrated on the demand-side stimuli to the regional economy that the university generates. Normally, the studies are undertaken with comparative-static input-output models. The present study employs a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium model to investigate supply-side as well as demand-side effects. There are a range of supply-side effects that have been investigated in the spatial econometrics literature. The supply-side impacts of the university that we examine in particular are a rise in the average skill level of the local workforce, and successful R&D outcomes. CGE modelling allows simulation of the associated productivity effects, while the dynamic features of the model allow for consequent effects on the region's population and capital stock growth rates to be taken into account. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p436&r=cmp |
| By: | Aris Gaaff; Tom Kuhlman; Frank Van Tongeren |
| Abstract: | When we model land use change, we utilize – consciously or unconsciously – other models as well. The variables we regard as exogenous are often generated endogenously by a different model. We are not always fully aware of the implications of this for our modelling exercises. The model which generated the demographic growth that we use in forecasting the need for residential space may have used assumptions that are at variance with ours. The model resulting in claims for agricultural land may have already taken competing claims into account – whereas our land use model may simulate this competition all over again. The data used for different models may not be compatible. Conversely, our land use simulation exercises can also be used by others as input. A model for the agricultural sector, for instance, must consider the constraint of available land – especially whether the land required is available in a particular area which is regarded as optimal for a particular production line. Land use models can provide that input. The Agricultural Economics Research Institute in The Hague, uses a number of models at various spatial levels – from the individual farm to the global economy – and for different purposes. Recently, the linkages between these models have received more attention, which also lays bare the compatibility problems between them. In order to examine both the possibilities and the problems inherent in these linkages, a research project on this ‘model train’ has been undertaken. Based on two opposing scenarios prepared by the Dutch Central Planning Bureau, the study calculates the long-term consequences of these scenarios: beginning with a general equilibrium model at global level (GTAP) through a sectoral model at national and regional scale - the Dutch Regionalized Agricultural Model (DRAM) – to a model assessing ecological effects in a local area (SOMMA). The Land Use Scanner, a land use information system and simulation model for the Netherlands, has been used to predict changes in the agricultural area for the regions used in DRAM. The land claims, which are an exogenous variable in the Land Use Scanner, were generated from projections of future population and GDP, on the basis of their historical correlation with land use. This project has led to interesting insights into the problems of linking models. It is hoped that these insights will help to improve the models we use – including land use models. The paper highlights the importance of making modelling assumptions explicit, such that the outcome of one model can indeed be a useful input into another one. The integrated modelling approach yields more consistent projections of land use. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p451&r=cmp |
| By: | Axel Börsch-Supan; Alexander Ludwig; Joachim Winter |
| Abstract: | Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fastaging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility. |
| Keywords: | aging; pension reform; capital mobility. |
| JEL: | E27 F21 G15 H55 J11 |
| Date: | 2005–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:065&r=cmp |
| By: | Annelie Holzkamper; Ralf Seppelt; Angela Lausch |
| Abstract: | Heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes is supposed to be of significant importance for species diversity in agroecosystems (Weibull et al. 2003). Thus it is necessary to account for structural aspects of landscapes in land management decision processes. Spatial optimization models of land use can serve as tools for decision support. These models can aim at various landscape functions like nutrient leaching and economical aspects (Seppelt and Voinov 2002), water quality (Randhir et al. 2000) or habitat suitability (Nevo and Garcia 1996). However neighbourhood effects stay unconsidered in these approaches. In this paper we present an optimization model concept that aims at maximizing habitat suitability of selected species by identifying optimum spatial configurations of agricultural land use patterns. Bird species with diverging habitat requirements were chosen as target species. Habitat suitability models for these species are used to set up the performance criterion. Landscape structure is quantified by landscape metrics (McGarigal et al. 2002) estimated within the species home range. Statistical significance of these metrics for species presence was proven by a logistic regression model (Fielding and Haworth 1995). The landscape is represented by a grid based data set. Based on a genetic algorithm the optimization task is to identify an optimum configuration of model units. These model units are defined by contiguous cells of identical land use. Within this concept we can study how optimum but possibly artificial landscapes vary in structure depending on the selected species for which habitat suitability is maximized. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p67&r=cmp |
| By: | Isabelle Leroux; Alain Berro |
| Abstract: | If spatial and industrial economics theorical models, such as industrial districts, clusters, or learning regions propose a large analysis of differentiated coordination mecanisms, it however not really takes into account behavior of dispute dynamics, such as conflict of bargaining and power, which can explain both diversity and ambivalence of local coordinations. So, our purpose in this contribution is to bring to light that bargaining and power conflicts are at stake in coordinations structuration within territories. We base this contribution on Artificial Life simulations involving public and private local actors who bargain to share a local resource using more or less sophisticated strategies. On a methodologic point of view, our thought is based on an empirical established fact. Analysis of a biotechnology cluster in Toulouse-France (Leroux I., 2002, 2004) indeed contributes to bring to light that coordinations involving pharmaceutical industry, local communities and local research laboratories are based on direct or indirect evolving domination and concession bargaining games. If industrial firms play "the power of the weak" game, making concession of their decision power to public research laboratories, they endeavour systematically to exerce an influence or a discrimination power, by using hided and indirect means that forward by local communities.Starting from this established fact, we propose Artificial Life simulations of local bargaining games, inspired from the T. Ellingsen (1997) bargaining evolutionnary game. This is a Nash demand game under ultimatum. It leads to the interaction of obstinate agents whose demands are independent of those of the adversaries, and sophisticated agents who adapt their demand to that hoped for of their adversaries rather than gain nothing. As a result, our simulations show that bargainings between these local actors lead to an agreement which is not a perfect share, or an "universal" rule, but a compromise frequently hiding complex mecanisms of domination and concession. The main contribution of these simulations, which are based on genetic algorithms, is to put in a prominent position the variations of behavioral rules. We show how bargaining is an evolving processus based on domination and concession behaviors (influence, coercion,…) bringing to light the T. Schelling (1960) "power of the weak". This result brings to the fore the question of flexibility and phasing dynamics of power behaviors in local coordination bargainings. This model can contributes to open new researches focused on power and conflict strategies within local coordinations. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p173&r=cmp |
| By: | Blackman, Allen (Resources For the Future); Albers, Heidi; Batz, Michael (Resources For the Future); Ávalos-Sartorio, Beatriz |
| Abstract: | Shade-grown coffee provides a livelihood to many farmers, protects biodiversity, and creates environmental services. Many shade-coffee farmers have abandoned production in recent years, however, in response to declines in international coffee prices. This paper builds a farmer decision model under price uncertainty and uses simulation analysis of that model to examine the likely impact of various policies on abandonment of shade-coffee plantations. Using information from coastal Oaxaca, Mexico, this paper examines the role of various constraints in abandonment decisions, reveals the importance of the timing of policies, and characterizes the current situation in the study region. |
| Keywords: | coffee farming, decision analysis, numerical modeling, Monte Carlo, price variability |
| JEL: | O13 Q17 Q12 Q23 Q24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-05-61&r=cmp |
| By: | Jasper Dekkers; Eric Koomen |
| Abstract: | The problem of water shortage is increasingly getting attention within the field of water management, even in the wet Netherlands. Clean ground and surface water may become too scarce to allow for sustainable use for various functions. In order to assess the magnitude of this problem a water shortage study has been started in the Netherlands, in which the impact of land use change is an important issue. Land use models can help translate hypotheses regarding future spatial developments into maps of a possible future. These scenarios can then be used in spatial planning processes. Future land use is greatly influenced by current land use, autonomous socio-economic developments, current policy and in the long term climate changes and other changes in the physical environment. By developing scenarios that are clearly different from each other, especially on the factors that influence the problem of water shortage, divergent images of the future have been generated for 2030. In this way, a first impression has been developed for the bandwidth in which future developments can occur. The goal of this paper is to evaluate whether we are able to generate new, spatially diverse scenario’s based on existing material within a very short time period. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p622&r=cmp |
| By: | M. Carmen Lima; M. Alejandro Cardenete |
| Abstract: | In this work we carry out an impact analysis of the European Structural Funds (ESF) to the object of assessing their effect on the GDP, the level of prices or the consumers’ income on the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. Accordingly, we present an Applied General Equilibrium Model (AGEM_A) and we compare the reception scenario of regional funds with a hypothetical situation where this financial support has been removed. The AGEM_A has been built by supplementing the statistical information provided by the Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia corresponding to 1990, 1995 and 1999, with the data included in the three Community Support Frameworks (CSF) approved by the European Commission. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p154&r=cmp |
| By: | Cihan Ahmet Tutluoðlu; Vedia Dokmeci |
| Abstract: | Land Zoning is an important issue in urban & regional planning, requiring heavy computational burden. Another challenge ihaving to decide on the parameters to be used in the evaluation. This paper takes the transportation-communication frequency and the rent-inflator interactions between different zonetypes (with possible coefficients) as the major elements in zone-evaluation. For the type of evaluation on the other hand three alternative methods were used. One of these methods only considers one-way interactions in rent-inflator relations. Another one is developped to include a self-updating mechanism on the same interactions. The third of the methods meanwhile attempts to take in account the topological factors. A software was developped in C++ that uses the Manhattan Metric to calculate the distances. The program prompts the user to feed in the evaluation method, different interaction coefficients as well as different landtypes and different maps. The software, based on the preference can either use a steepest descent heuristic or an enumeration algorithm. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p313&r=cmp |
| By: | Johannes Bröcker; Nils Schneekloth |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the spatial impact of two main aspects of European transport policy, namely infrastructure investments and pricing. In its "White Paper: European Transport Policy for 2010: Time to Decide" the European Commission has laid down a comprehensive programme of transport policy within the EU, aiming at increasing the efficiency of the transport industry, developing the so-called trans-European infrastructure network and bringing the prices of transport services closer to the true marginal social cost. It is an important political issue whether the policy will enhance spatial cohesion in Europe or run counter the objective of a balanced economic development in the entire area of the EU. For one thing this is because spatial development objectives are themselves prominent goals among the catalogue of objectives to be attained by transport policy. Particularly infrastructure investments which are co-financed by the structural funds, are regarded a means of regional policy supporting less favoured regions. Furthermore, transport policies motivated by efficiency or environmental reasons may have undesired regional side effects, that could generate political backlash, unless one offers some compensation. The spatial impact of the two named policies is studied with the help of a spatial computable general equilibrium model, called CGEurope. It is a static model with a large number of regions covering the whole area of the EU including the new member states, plus neighbouring countries, some of them also subdivided by regions. Regions interact by trade flows. Interregional trade is costly, with trade costs depending inter alia on the state of infrastructure and on gasoline prices and infrastructure charges. Transport policies are simulated by varying the costs of transport and quantifying the impact on the welfare of households brought about by changes in goods and factor prices. We develop a series of policy scenarios and evaluate their impact an spatial equality or inequality using a whole bundle of indicators of spatial inequality. The paper documents theses scenarios, explains the modelling framework in brief, discusses the inequality indicators to be used and maps and tabulates the main results. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p624&r=cmp |
| By: | Makoto Okumura; Makoto Tsukai |
| Abstract: | It takes long time and huge amount of money to construct inter-city railway network. Careful demand forecasting and rational service planning are therefore required. However, long ranged demand forecasting is always facing to unintended change of regional population or change of the service level of competing transportation modes such as airline and inter-city express bus. Those changes sometimes resulted in severe decrease of demand for the constructed railway lines and discussion of abolishment of train service occurs. In order to avoid such tragedy, we want to build a robust network plan not vulnerable for the changes in forecasting conditions. This paper discusses the robustness of optimal inter-city railway network structure in Japan against alternative population distributions. Genetic Algorithm is applied to find best mixture of maximum operation speed category and number of daily train service for each link, which maximize the total consumer surplus of inter-city railway passengers. Consumer surplus is assessed by a gravity demand model considering service level along several routes for each OD pair. Travel time calculated by allocated link speed category, allocated train frequency, and estimated fare regressed by travel speed, will be summarized as route service level via ML route choice model parameters. In the GA, we consider a chromosome consists of two parts; speed category of 275 links and relative operation distance of trains in those links. Besides the real distribution of population in 197 Japanese local areas in the year of 1995, we set four other hypothetic population distributions; two of them concentrate in megalopolises like Tokyo, others disperse along geographically remote areas. We first obtain network structures optimized by the GA for each population setting. Speed category allocation will be compared for the five network plans. Secondly, we calculate total consumer surplus of each network plan under the different population settings and discuss the vulnerability of those plans. Thirdly, we optimize train operation plans for different population settings under the given speed category arrangements. The results shows that spatial arrangement of high speed railway service in 1995 keeps optimality for wide range of population settings, if we adjust number of trains according to alternative population distribution. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p497&r=cmp |
| By: | Robert S. De Waard |
| Abstract: | Many authors mention gaps between planning and reality (Salet, 2000; Wheeler, 2002), modelling and reality (Parker, 2003), and between modelling and planning (Clark, 2003). The first gap refers to inadequate planning models and instruments and the second one to the yet inadequate simulation models. The last before mentioned gap refers to cultural and ontological differences between these fields. There seems to be a kind of hate-love relationship: there is a promise of synergy, but also a considerable communication problem. Inside planning there is an ongoing debate on what qualities are important, how to deal with stakeholders and how to implement plans. This debate stretches from the functionalistic modernism to identity oriented comprehensive new regionalism. Planning concepts are in essence instruments for governance and therefore developed for and focused on control and intervention of specific aspects of spatial development. The root of planning is about the creation of the future and not about future research. This focus is one of the reasons why so many regional plans fail to be implemented. Modelling is focused on system behaviour; it is focused on scientific future research. Through its scientific approach and still inapt models, modelling however generates results that many planners do not recognize as practical from their daily perspective. They mistrust the models and find their grid based maps primal. Planning and modelling are complementary and therefore in principle synergetic. Modelling could provide planning, its context and moneylender, with a powerful evaluation tool. For this to happen however planning has to be more open to landscape as an autonomous system and must develop consistent (scenario) approaches. Now, planning models are mostly not adequate for interactive scenario development and simulation. And modelling has, next to improving performace, to pay more attention to practical planning issues (spatial quality and practise data) and language (catographic products and scales). This way they could make a beautiful couple, provided they work on themselves. What is required is a kind of intermediate or integrative scenario and typology approach. Simlandscape is a methodological toolbox for land use planning. It includes research and development, evaluation and monitoring of panoramic land use scenarios. It has been specifically developed to do the before mentioned job. Simlandscape was the object of a recently finished R&D project. It is designed to accommodate future research and interactive scenario development (explorative interactive planning) on a local and regional scale. The toolbox is based on an ontological transformation model of how landscape changes. Key elements are that Simlandscape is parcel based and actor and object orientated. The innovative aspects of Simlandscape have to do with the effect of the key elements of the model – an integration of land property and –exploitation in a landscape layer model in combination with a cadastral data model - for the comprehensiveness of the tool with respect to research activities, plan phases, qualities and stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p290&r=cmp |
| By: | Dominique Peeters; Isabelle Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at showing how far the shape of a studied area influences the results of optimal location-allocation models. Simulations are performed on rectangular toy-networks with an equal number of vertices but with different length/width ratios. The case of merging two such networks into a common market is also considered. We limit our experience to the Simple Plant Location Problem (SPLP) which captures the fundamental trade-off of economic geography between accessibility and economies-of-scales. Results are analysed in terms of locations, allocations and costs. The results help at understanding how far an area (country/region) has larger development problems than others just because of its shape and/or of the way this area is linked within a common market (elongation of the country and length of the common border). Several real world examples are discussed when interpreting of the results. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p56&r=cmp |
| By: | Dick Ettema; Aldrik Bakema; Harry Timmermans |
| Abstract: | It is increasingly recognised that land use change processes are the outcome of decisions made by individual actors, such as land owners, authorities, firms and households. As multi-agent models provide a natural framework for modelling urban processes on the level of individual actors, Utrecht University, Eindhoven University of Technology and RIVM are developing PUMA (Predicting Urbanisation with Multi-Agents), a full fledged multi-agent system of urban processes. PUMA consists of various modules, representing the behaviours of specific actors. The land conversion module describes farmers', authorities', investors' and developers' decisions to sell or buy land and develop it into other uses. The households module describes households' housing careers in relation to life cycle events (marriage, child birth, aging, job change etc.). The firms module includes firms' demography and their related demand for production facilities leading to location choice processes. The daily activity pattern module describes the trips made and locations visited by individuals to carry out certain tasks. This module generates aggregated effects of individual behaviours (congestion, pollution, noise), affecting households' or firms' longer term location decisions. The paper describes the model system architecture and the interactions between the modules. Particular attention is devoted to the households module that includes a behaviourally sophisticated model of households' process of awakening (deciding to actively search for another dwelling), search and acceptance of an offered dwelling. This model was calibrated on the Dutch Housing Preferences Survey. Based on the disaggregate housing search and acceptance model, the households module describes housing market dynamics and indicates the demand for new dwellings per region. The paper describes the model specification and calibration in detail. The households module was implemented and tested for the Northwing of the Dutch Randstad, including about 1.5 million households and 1.6 million dwellings. The paper describes the implementation and the first model results. |
| Date: | 2005–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wiw:wiwrsa:ersa05p281&r=cmp |