New Economics Papers
on Computational Economics
Issue of 2005‒12‒20
six papers chosen by

  1. Does Stock Market Liberalisation Benefit The Economy? Evidence From Industry-Level Data By Lee Chee Tong
  2. Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model By Axel Boersch-Supan; Alexander Ludwig; Joachim Winter
  3. Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) Using Tick-by-Tick Data with Application to the Toronto Stock Exchange By Georges Dionne; Pierre Duchesne; Maria Pacurar
  4. Does a free trade area favors an optimum currency area? The Case of Morocco and the European Union By Lahcen ACHY; Juliette Milgram
  5. Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax By Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Sabine Jokisch
  6. Implementation with a Bounded Action Space By Liad Blumrosen; Michal Feldman

  1. By: Lee Chee Tong (Singapore Centre for Applied and Policy Economics, Department of Economics, National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: The paper examines the impact of stock market liberalisation on four industry-level economic variables, i) growth in real value added, ii) growth in real wages per worker, iii) growth in the number of employees and iv) growth in the number of firms using data on 18 developing countries for the period between 1981 - 2000. Genetic programming methodology is used to determine the liberalisation dates. Results from difference-in-differences regression indicate that stock market liberalisation has minimal impact on the growth of real value added. On the other hand, growth rates of real wages per worker, number of employees and number of firms are significantly higher for most countries after stock market liberalisation.
    Keywords: stock market liberalisation, genetic programming, difference- indifferences regression
    JEL: G18 J30 O12
  2. By: Axel Boersch-Supan; Alexander Ludwig; Joachim Winter
    Abstract: Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second this process may be amplified when a pension reform shifts old-age provision towards more pre-funding. Third, while the patterns of population aging are similar in most counries, timing and initial conditions differ substantially. Hence, to the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will induce capital flows between countries. All three effects influence the rate of return to capital and interact with the demand for capital in production and with labor supply. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed this multi-country overlapping generations model with detailed long-term demographic projections for seven world regions. Our simulations indicate that capital flows from fast-aging regions to the rest of the world will initially be substantial but that trends are reversed when households decumulate savings. We also conclude that closed-economy models of pension reform miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.
    JEL: E27 F21 G15
    Date: 2005–12
  3. By: Georges Dionne; Pierre Duchesne; Maria Pacurar
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to investigate the use of tick-by-tick data for market risk measurement. We propose an Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) at different horizons based on irregularly time-spaced high-frequency data by using an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. An UHF-GARCH model extending the framework of Engle (2000) is used to specify the joint density of the marked-point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for the Royal Bank and the Placer Dome stocks traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active on the market. The UHF-GARCH model performs well out-of-sample for almost all the time horizons and the confidence levles considered even when normality is assumed for the distribution of the error term, provided that intraday seasonality has been accounted for prior to the estimation.
    Keywords: Value at Risk, tick-by-tick data, UHF-GARCH models, intraday market risk, high-frequency models, intraday Monte Carlo simulation, Intraday Value at Risk
    JEL: C22 C41 C53 G15
    Date: 2005
  4. By: Lahcen ACHY (INSEA, Rabat, Morocco); Juliette Milgram (Grenade University, Spain)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate simultaneously the potential effects of European Union's Association Agreement with Morocco and the adoption of the Euro as a single currency on exchange rate regime of Moroccan Dirham. Since Morocco depends heavily on EU as a market for its exports and a source for its imports, limited variability of the DH against the Euro seems à priori, to be an appropriate policy option. This option may even be strengthened within the FTA. However, the nature and the composition of Moroccan exports are typical of North-South trade with little diversification and high concentration on textiles and agricultural products. From this perspective, the risk of asymmetric shocks is more likely, which reduces the expected gains from nominal anchorage. This paper aims at contributing to the future exchange rate regime in Morocco and focuses on three main issues. The first issue is to investigate the potential effects of the FTA on trade structure and industrial specialization in Morocco. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model is used to simulate macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the implementation of the FTA on industrial sector. The second issue is to estimate the real exchange rate equilibrium based on macroeconomic fundamentals and assess the degree of misalignment of the actual value of the Dirham. Finally, the question of exchange rate arrangement is examined by combining the expected effects of free trade area between Morocco and the European Union, the existing degree of misalignment of the Dirham, and considering the adoption of the Euro as a single currency in 12 European countries. Our results seem to suggest that the implementation of a FTA may lead to a reallocation of industrial production toward an even more specialization in labor-intensive products. Under such circumstances, the symmetry of shocks, as an important condition for anchoring the DH to the Euro, is not satisfied making this option non-desirable.
    Keywords: Free Trade Area, CGE Model, Exchange rate
    JEL: F1 F2
    Date: 2005–12–14
  5. By: Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Sabine Jokisch
    Abstract: America's aging coupled with high and growing old age health and pension benefits augers for much higher payroll taxes, with potentially damaging effects on the U.S. economy. This prognosis is supported by our analysis of a detailed dynamic life-cycle general equilibrium model, which closely captures projected changes in U.S. demographics. The FairTax offers a potential alternative to this dismal economic future. The FairTax proposes to replace the federal payroll tax, personal income tax, corporate income tax, and estate tax (not modeled here) with a progressive consumption tax delivered in the form of a federal retail sales tax plus a rebate. According to our simulation model, these policy changes would almost double the U.S. capital stock by the end of the century and raise long-run real wages by 19 percent compared to the base case alternative. They would also preclude a doubling of the highly regressive payroll tax. Indeed, the poorest members of each cohort experience remarkably large welfare gains from the FairTax. To be specific, today's elderly poor are predicted to experience a 13 to 14 percent welfare gain. In contrast, their middle class counterparts enjoy a 1 to 2 percent gain, and their richest counterparts experience a .5 to 1 percent welfare loss. Poor baby boomers experience 8 percent gains, while middle- and upper-income boomers experience either very small welfare losses or small gains. Once one moves to generations postdating the baby boomers there are positive welfare gains for all income groups in each cohorts. For example, the poorest members of the generation born in 1990 enjoy a 16 percent welfare gain. Their middle-class and rich contemporaries experience 5 and 2 percent welfare gains, respectively. The welfare gains are largest for future generations. Take the cohort born in 2030. The poorest members of this cohort enjoy a huge 27 percent improvement in their well being. For middle class members of this birth group, there's an 11 percent welfare gain. And for the richest members of the group, the gain is 5 percent. The remarkable point here is the size of the gains from the reform relative to the losses. Yes, some initial high- and middle-income households are made worse off, but their welfare losses are minor compared with the gains available to future generations, particularly the poorest members of future generations. While our model is highly stylized, it suggests that the FairTax offers a real opportunity to improve the U.S. economy's performance and the wellbeing of the vast majority of Americans. The winners from this reform, primarily those who are least well off, experience very major gains, and the losers experience only minor losses.
    JEL: H2
    Date: 2005–12
  6. By: Liad Blumrosen; Michal Feldman
    Abstract: While traditional mechanism design typically assumes isomorphism between the agents' type- and action spaces, in many situations the agents face strict restrictions on their action space due to, e.g., technical, behavioral or regulatory reasons. We devise a general framework for the study of mechanism design in single-parameter environments with restricted action spaces. Our contribution is threefold. First, we characterize sufficient conditions under which the information-theoretically optimal social-choice rule can be implemented in dominant strategies, and prove that any multilinear social-choice rule is dominant-strategy implementable with no additional cost. Second, we identify necessary conditions for the optimality of action-bounded mechanisms, and fully characterize the optimal mechanisms and strategies in games with two players and two alternatives. Finally, we prove that for any multilinear social-choice rule, the optimal mechanism with k actions incurs an expected loss of O(1/k^2) compared to the optimal mechanisms with unrestricted action spaces. Our results apply to various economic and computational settings, and we demonstrate their applicability to signaling games, public-good models and routing in networks.
    Date: 2005–12

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