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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Becker, Torbjörn; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Weder di Mauro, Beatrice |
| Abstract: | The anticipation of Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction has led to an avalanche of academic and policy analyses on how to rebuild the country. To help the profession navigate this rapidly expanding literature, this paper provides a synthesis and critical overview of the proposals. After describing historical context, damages inflicted by Russian aggression, and funds required for Ukraine’s recovery, the paper summarizes principles, phases and policies needed to deeply modernize the country. The reconstruction of Ukraine should provide a template for other recovery programs. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine; Foreign aid |
| JEL: | F5 O2 O52 P2 P3 H84 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19555 |
| By: | Hanousek, Jan; Hramiak, Iryna; Megginson, William L.; Shamshur, Anastasiya |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the impact of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea on firm performance in Ukraine, focusing on firms with Russian affiliations. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that firms with Russian majority ownership experienced a significant decline in performance compared to those without Russian ties. This decline stems from reduced sales, lower investment, restricted access to financing, and increased financial constraints. Notably, we differentiate between firms with visible Russian affiliations, such as Russian names, and those with Russian majority ownership. Our results show that deeper financial connections, rather than mere visibility, drive the negative impact. Firms with Russian ownership were also more likely to exit the market following the conflict. These findings provide important insights into how geopolitical risks affect corporate performance and firm strategic decisions |
| Keywords: | investment |
| JEL: | C23 D22 G30 M14 M16 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19771 |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | We examine recent developments and outcomes from Russia's policies on import substitution and technological sovereignty utilizing official documents, statistical data, and company surveys. While Russian officials proclaim ambitious technological sovereignty targets, the reality is less impressive. Heavy investment in priority sectors in recent years has only delivered limited progress in import substitution, and output has in fact declined and import dependency increased in many industries. Russia remains highly dependent on imports of technological products, particularly sophisticated inputs and machinery. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:342399 |
| By: | Alrababah, Ala; De Vries, Catherine Eunice (Bocconi University); Myrick, Rachel (Duke University) |
| Abstract: | Do external security threats reduce support for far-right parties? Existing scholarship suggests such threats should weaken extreme parties by generating rally effects, shifting attention to foreign policy, and increasing demand for experienced leadership. We develop a theoretical framework distinguishing these channels and test them in the context of Russian aggression in Europe. In Study 1, leveraging an unexpected event during survey fieldwork in the European Social Survey, we find no evidence that Russia's invasion of Ukraine reduced support for far-right parties. In Study 2, a pre-registered survey experiment in Germany, we expose respondents to a scenario of US withdrawal from NATO and a Russian invasion of an EU member state. Threats increase demand for competent leadership and boost incumbent support by about 4 points, but do not reduce far-right support, which proves remarkably sticky. Together, these findings show that security shocks can reshape mainstream competition without eroding far-right support. |
| Date: | 2026–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:9m4jf_v1 |
| By: | Crozet, Matthieu; Hinz, Julian; Šváb, Patrik |
| Abstract: | Trade sanctions are restrictive measures that limit commercial exchange between countries to achieve political objectives. Their economics can be studied at two levels-the aggregate effects on trade and welfare, and the adjustment of individual firms-with the sanctions imposed on the Russian Federation in 2014 and 2022 as central case studies for both. At the macro level, a multi-country, multi-sector general-equilibrium trade model with input-output linkages is calibrated to quantify welfare effects under alternative coalition and intensity scenarios. Relative to 2014, the 2022 measures imposed substantially larger costs on Russia (about -2.6% of real income) while the average cost for EU/UK senders remained modest (around -0.1%), with larger losses concentrated in highly exposed small economies. Coalitions amplify pressure on the target at limited additional cost for most senders. Hypothetical extensions bound the potential of sanctions through global participation or embargoes. At the micro level, French customs data (monthly firm-product-destination flows, 2021-2023) and a triple-difference design reveal that exports to Russia fell by roughly three quarters after February 2022. The adjustment is dominated by the extensive margin, with smaller but significant intensive-margin declines among continuing firms. Targeted products contracted far more than non-targeted ones, with dual-use goods most severely affected. Financial channels that propagate losses beyond listed goods, the limits of "smart" sanctions when governments shield strategic firms, and political responses-including rally-around-the-flag effects in the targeted country-complete the picture. |
| Keywords: | economic sanctions, trade sanctions, international trade, embargo, export controls, Russia, extensive margin, welfare |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:342567 |
| By: | Amponsem, Maxwell Peprah; Guney, Selin; Osei, Edward; Yu, Mark |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of the Russia-Ukraine war on global wheat trade using monthly bilateral trade data from 2010-2024. We estimate gravity-based difference-indifferences, event-study, and exposure-based triple-difference specifications to identify the trade and food-security consequences of the invasion. The results reveal sharply asymmetric responses across the two belligerent exporters. Ukraine’s wheat exports collapsed immediately following the invasion and remained substantially below pre-war levels, while Russia’s exports remained comparatively resilient and expanded in several destination markets. The disruption was concentrated among importers dependent on Black Sea maritime shipping, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Delivery-route heterogeneity test indicate that disruption of Black Sea shipping infrastructure, rather than sanctions or generalized demand contraction, was the primary transmission mechanism behind Ukraine’s export collapse. Exposure-based triple-difference estimates further show that importers with greater pre-war dependence on Ukrainian wheat experienced significantly larger post-invasion trade declines. Translating the estimated disruptions into importer-level exposure measures reveals substantial short-run food-security exposure among several import-dependent economies, althoughreplacementdynamicsindicatethat muchoftheinitial shortfall was offset within several months through trade reallocation toward alternative suppliers. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404641 |
| By: | Parviainen, Sinikka; Samoiliuk, Maksym |
| Abstract: | Ukraine's EU accession is the most economically complex enlargement in recent EU history. It is unfolding amidst conditions of an active war, large-scale reconstruction needs, and rapid evolution of Ukraine's defence sector. This policy brief examines EU-Ukraine economic integration using Finland as a stress test for plausible outcomes in bilateral trade relations with Ukraine. The fact that Finland is an EU member state without geographic proximity or deep historical ties to Ukraine allows identification of structural, rather than geography-driven, complementarities present across key sectors. The analysis finds strong complementarities in digital services, energy, reconstruction, and defence-industrial cooperation. Notably, none of these complementarities are yet reflected in trade and investment flows, which remain limited and concentrated in low-risk activities. Thus, the challenge for policymakers is translating these identified complementarities into investment at scale under conditions of elevated risk, particularly for SME-led projects in the private sector. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, EU-Ukraine trade, EU accession, Finland, reconstruction |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F22 F52 O52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:342405 |
| By: | Brunninger, Lukas; Dertwinkel-Kalt, Markus; Gugler, Klaus; Heim, Sven |
| Abstract: | In the aftermath of the Russian invasion in Ukraine and rising gas prices, the ``gas price brake'' was implemented in Germany. We employ a difference-in-differences approach and analyze data on offered gas contracts from two countries with comparable gas markets, where one country (Germany) has implemented the gas price brake and the other (Austria) has not. Our findings support the theoretical prediction, indicating that the gas price brake led to an increase in total annual gas costs in Germany. This increase is entirely attributable to incumbents increasing counterfactual gas prices by up to 90\%. Non-incumbents do not ’milk‘ the brake. |
| Keywords: | Energy policy; Gas Price Brake; Moral hazard; Incumbents |
| JEL: | D04 Q40 Q48 L50 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19763 |
| By: | Fredy Gamboa; Jose Vicente Romero |
| Abstract: | This study examines how geopolitical risk (GPR) transmits to sovereign credit risk in emerging market economies (EMEs), using monthly data on the 5-year sovereign credit default swap (SCDS) and the J.P. Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) spread for 13 EMEs over the period of January 2005–October 2025. Using fixed-effects panel local projections, the framework is extended to allow for state-dependent transmission. Differences in impulse responses across states are attributed to specific macrofinancial fundamentals. Three main findings are identified. First, an increase in the GPR index raises both SCDS and EMBI spreads. Second, disaggregating the index into its subcomponents reveals a larger response to threats than to acts, consistent with the possibility of anticipation effects in sovereign credit markets. Third, evaluating the state-dependent impulse response around the Russian invasion of Ukraine yields substantially different responses, with the post-invasion configuration increasing the sovereign risk premia response. Our findings show the importance of modeling the state-dependent transmission of geopolitical shocks and provide a useful tool for incorporating geopolitical scenarios into sovereign risk analysis. |
| Keywords: | sovereign risk, credit default swaps, EMBI, emerging markets, geopolitical risk, panel local projections, state-dependent transmission |
| JEL: | C23 C54 F34 G15 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1368 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo; Palmou, Christina; Schneebacher, Jakob |
| Abstract: | We study how businesses adjust to significant rises in energy costs. This matters for both the current energy crisis and the longer-term shift towards Net Zero. Using firm-level real-time survey and administrative data backed by a pre-registered analysis plan, we examine how firms respond to the energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine along output, price, input, process and survival margins. We find that, on average, fi rms pa ss on some cost increases, build up cash reserves, and face higher debt, but do not yet see layoffs or bankruptcies. However, effects are highly heterogeneous by size and industry: for instance, small firms tend to increase cash reserves and prices, while large firms invest more in capital. We estimate separate elasticities for many small industry cells and subsequently use k-means clustering techniques on the estimated effects to identify high-dimensional firm-adaptation archetypes. These estimates can help tailor firm support in the energy transition both in the short and the long term. More generally, the machinery developed in this paper enables policymakers to evaluate and adjust economic policy in near-real time. |
| Keywords: | energy price shock; firm dynamics; climate change; high-dimensional analysis |
| JEL: | D24 H23 L11 O30 |
| Date: | 2024–11–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eoe:escoed:escoe-dp-2024-15 |
| By: | Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | Russia's isolation from global financial markets and government programmes to support bank lending initially fuelled a wartime lending boom in Russia. With economic growth now stalled and borrowing costs rising, lending growth has slowed. This shift, in conjunction with increased public sector borrowing needs, has raised worries about the quality of banking sector's loan portfolios, especially with respect to corporate lending. We examine available official banking statistics to assess the ability of Russia's banking sector to digest mounting government debt. |
| Keywords: | Russia, banking, government bonds |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:342398 |
| By: | Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University); Sabatini, Fabio (Sapienza University of Rome) |
| Abstract: | We study the local economic effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, combining a verified event-level strike record with quality-screened daily satellite radiance from NASA Black Marble. The analysis covers 29 large Russian refineries, 22 of which sustain verified direct hits over June 2022-May 2026. Using a monthly staggered difference-in-differences design, we find that nighttime radiance falls immediately and persistently after a refinery enters the strike campaign: by roughly 30 percent in the innermost measured ring and by 15-18 percent within five kilometers, with the effect attenuating until it becomes small at twenty-five kilometers. A complementary daily instrumental-variables design uses directional wind alignment to shift strike incidence and trace the strike-day dynamic. Radiance rises at short horizons, consistent with a fire-related light signature corroborated by NASA FIRMS detections, and turns negative at a six-month horizon, with weak-instrument-robust inference. Applying the same satellite product and empirical specification to 106 non-refinery deep-strike targets produces no comparable contraction, weighing against a generic-war-disruption interpretation. |
| Keywords: | conflict economics, industrial destruction, drone warfare, nighttime lights, staggered difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, Russia-Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D74 F51 H56 L71 O13 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18772 |
| By: | Furness, Mark (Ed.); Keijzer, Niels (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | A little more than a year into the Trump 2.0 era, the "post-Cold War" international order as we know it is coming to an end. Amid increasing volatility and conflict, the shape and character of the order that will replace it are dangerously unclear. There are ambitions by so-called middle powers - including some member states of the EU - to provide an effective response, but questions remain as to their potential impact. Three scenarios can be envisaged: (1) an Orwellian dystopia dominated by three global powers - the United States, China and Russia - each with its own sphere of influence; (2) a "new Cold War" between two rival capitalist models: "Western" liberal democracy versus "Eastern" oligarchy and (3) the survival of the rules-based international order, possibly as a counterweight to oligarchic spheres of influence. For this scenario to materialise, middle powers must address the liberal order's inherent weaknesses so that it delivers for all of its members. This discussion paper brings together 14 contributions drawing on the German Institute of Development and Sustainability's (IDOS) broad regional and thematic expertise to examine these questions. The contributions analyse key actors, cooperation themes and regions. Each contribution analyses the implications of the changing global order for its specific area of focus and explores how international cooperation in general - and development cooperation in particular - can contribute to a more just and sustainable international system. The paper aims to provide readers with a range of perspectives on the state of international development cooperation and its possible evolution. Taken together, the contributions provide insights into the roles that international development cooperation may play in an emerging global order and identify priorities for reforms. |
| Keywords: | German and European development policy, development financing, public finance |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:342472 |
| By: | Mr. Etibar Jafarov; Chingis Matayev |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes credit developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) using several complementary approaches. First, it estimates long-run equilibrium credit levels based on economic fundamentals, providing benchmarks to assess whether observed credit levels are broadly aligned with country characteristics. Second, it applies statistical “gap” measures to identify periods of unusually rapid credit expansion that may signal emerging financial vulnerabilities. Third, it uses the Kalman filter to decompose credit into trend and cyclical elements conditional on macro variables. The results suggest there is scope for further financial deepening in all CCA economies, but the speed of household credit expansion warrants close monitoring. A comparative “horse race” of alternative indicators suggests that no single measure consistently outperforms others across countries, implying that combining various credit gap measures enhances the robustness of risk assessments. |
| Keywords: | Credit growth; credit cycles; credit gaps; financial deepening; financial stability; early warning indicators; Caucasus and Central Asia |
| Date: | 2026–07–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/137 |
| By: | Chen, Shuo; Taheripour, Farzad; Baldos, Uris Lantz; Zhuang, Qianlai; Yuan, Ye; Benavidez-Brouk, Lauren |
| Abstract: | Global pastureland covers about one-third of the Earth’s land surface and has undergone significant changes in the past decades. Understanding the spatial distribution and trends of pastureland is essential for addressing environmental and food security challenges as well as supporting sustainable development. This study reconstructs pastureland maps at 500m spatial resolution based on the MODIS MCD12Q1 V6 land cover product and the Gridded Livestock World v3 (GLW) dataset. We further analyzed the trend, variability, and distribution in pastureland from 2001 to 2020. Overall, the pastureland area in this study is consistent with FAOSTAT, HYDE, and HILDA datasets. In selected countries with large pastureland areas, the pastureland in Australia and China contracted while it expanded in the United States over the period 2001 to 2020. For Brazil, pastureland area initially grew and then declined in later years. We find that pastureland in the United States, Canada, China, Australia, and Sub-Saharan Africa largely remained stable over this period. In the South of America and Russia, it is unstable, which indicates frequent conversion of pastureland into other land uses. This reconstruction of global pastureland at 500m level is promising for accurately capturing the spatial heterogeneity of pastureland and further improving our understanding of its impact on renewable fuels policies, sustainable development targets, and environmental issues. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404741 |
| By: | José Alves; João Estevão |
| Abstract: | Europe’s energy geopolitics is usually told as a story of changing suppliers – Russian gas yesterday, Chinese clean technology tomorrow. Electrification adds a second, more local geopolitics, defined by who sits at the centre of the grid, who runs into bottlenecks, and who can call on flexibility when stress hits. Using public data alone, we build a bidding-zone-month panel covering 41 European zones over 2019-2025 and test six pre-stated hypotheses about how this internal layer redistributes price volatility, negative-price exposure, net imports, and cross-border price gaps. Three findings survive our identification checks. More cross-zonal capacity lowers net imports in average months, confirmed quasi-experimentally around the NordLink and Viking Link HVDC commissionings. Higher renewable shares raise within-month price volatility once network position is held fixed – about 1.8 EUR/MWh per ten percentage points of renewable share – concentrated in the network-central half of the panel. And the 2022 gas crisis widened the gap between EU-27 and non-EU European zones: integration transmitted the shock into the most-connected jurisdictions instead of dampening it. The flexibility-moderation prediction fails. Energy sovereignty in an electrified Europe is best understood as advantageous positioning within regional infrastructure, not separation from it; integration is double-edged. |
| Keywords: | electricity interdependence, energy transition, strategic vulnerability, congestion, Europe, energy security |
| JEL: | C33 D85 F52 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12836 |
| By: | Mdhlalose, Dickson |
| Abstract: | This paper critically evaluates the economic effects of unauthorised immigration on host economies through a cross-national comparative lens, drawing on empirical evidence published between 2020 and 2026. The analysis examines twelve major host economies across four continents: the European Union (with detailed evidence from Germany, Italy, Spain, France, and Poland), the United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, the Gulf Cooperation Council states, South Africa, Malaysia, Thailand, India, Brazil, the United States, and Canada. Five questions structure the inquiry: the global magnitude and distribution of unauthorised migrant populations; fiscal contributions and costs across diverse institutional contexts; labour market impacts on native workers; sectoral concentrations; and macroeconomic effects, including projected consequences of large-scale removal. Synthesis of authoritative sources indicates that approximately 5.8 million unauthorised migrants reside in EU-27 member states, 2.9 million in the Russian Federation, 2.2 million in South Africa, 2.7 million in Malaysia, 2.4 million in Thailand, and 3.6 million Syrians remain under Temporary Protection in Türkiye (International Organization for Migration [IOM], 2025; Eurostat, 2025; United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR], 2025). The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2025) estimates that the 2019-2024 immigration surge raised hostcountry potential gross domestic product (GDP) by an average of 1.4 percent across destination economies. The International Monetary Fund (Allen et al., 2024) projects that mass-removal scenarios in major host economies would reduce GDP by 1.8-6.2 percent over five years, with disproportionate impacts in agriculture, construction, and care sectors. Türkiye Statistical Institute (TÜİK, 2024) data indicate that Syrian-owned enterprises generated approximately US$2.3 billion in annual turnover by 2023. The paper argues that aggregate net economic benefits coexist with genuinely localised fiscal costs and distributional pressures on competing low-skill workers, and that policy responses should be calibrated accordingly. Recommendations include regularisation pathways, intensified employer-side labour-standards enforcement, targeted fiscal transfers to high-impact localities, and sectoral guest-worker reforms. |
| Keywords: | unauthorised immigration, irregular migration, fiscal impact, labour market, gross domestic product, mass deportation, regularisation, comparative migration policy |
| JEL: | J61 H20 F22 E62 J11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:341746 |
| By: | Andrey Simonov; Daniil Mikhailov; Ruben Enikolopov; Ruben Durante |
| Abstract: | News aggregators are among the primary gatekeepers of online news, shaping both consumption and production through the algorithms that rank stories and sources. We provide the first large-scale estimates of this algorithmic power using the example of Yandex News, Russia's largest aggregator. Combining archived front pages with 12.3 million published articles and outlet-level traffic data, we estimate that occupying the entire top-5 news block for a day raises an outlet's traffic by roughly 380, 000 visitors. After a 2016 law made aggregators liable for cited content, Yandex halved its references to independent outlets, yet consumers did not penalize the manipulation: its referrals converted readers at the same rate, and its market share did not fall. Removed outlets shifted toward longer articles and stopped optimizing headlines for the algorithm, showing that aggregator algorithms shape not only news consumption but also production. |
| Keywords: | news aggregators, platform power, algorithmic gatekeeping, media capture, news consumption and production, search engines, political economy of media, recommender systems |
| JEL: | L82 L86 D72 L51 D83 L15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12859 |
| By: | Takashi Matsuhisa (MRI BSBH FOUNDATION for Sci. Res.) |
| Abstract: | Crisis diagnostics quantify geometric proximity to regime change, but their normative status is often overstated. Objective: To determine when catastrophe-based diagnostic indices can legitimately acquire normative content in welfare analysis. Method: The paper develops a dynamic governance model with deformable triple-well potential geometry, catastrophe-theoretic discriminants, and planner objectives under baseline and reform channels. Results: Diagnostic minimization and welfare maximization are shown to be non-implicative in general; under an explicit reform channel and an internalized switching-loss term, local reductions in HCFI become directionally aligned with welfare improvement. A stylized Soviet-Russia path and a reproducible computational protocol illustrate the mechanism. Conclusions: Catastrophe-based diagnostics are not welfare criteria per se, but they can acquire normative relevance when structural deformation and switching exposure are explicitly incorporated into the policy objective. |
| Keywords: | Welfare Alignment, Regime-Switching Losses, Fragility Indices, Crisis Diagnostics, Catastrophe Geometry |
| Date: | 2026–07–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05695818 |
| By: | Ekaterina Sprenger (University of Hamburg, ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics); Eva Markowsky (University of Potsdam, CEPA) |
| Abstract: | Most economic decisions are fundamentally about the preference for larger rewards later over smaller rewards sooner, and a growing body of literature suggests that linguistic structures, in particular the grammatical marking of future time reference (FTR), may shape individuals’ time preferences and future-oriented behaviour. This paper examines whether variation in language proficiency among bilingual adolescents exposed to both weak- and strong-FTR languages within the same institutional and cultural environment is associated with differences in future-oriented behaviour and educational outcomes. We analyse German–Turkish and German–Russian bilingual students and relate individual-level language proficiency to willingness to invest time in learning, mathematics grades and self-assessed patience. Across a range of specifications and robustness checks, we find no evidence that greater proficiency in a strong-FTR language is associated with less future-oriented behaviour; if anything, it is weakly positively associated with willingness to invest in learning. The absence of negative associations suggests that previously documented effects may operate through long-run cultural transmission rather than grammatical structure alone and has important implications for education policy in increasingly multilingual European societies. |
| Keywords: | future-time reference, linguistic-savings hypothesis, time preferences, patience, bilingualism, heritage-language proficiency, educational investment, human capital |
| JEL: | Z13 D15 J15 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pot:cepadp:105 |