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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Anna Cole; Christopher J. Neely |
| Abstract: | This analysis examines a country’s foreign aid to Ukraine relative to the size of its economy for 41 nations, ranging from Iceland to China. Which country provides the most? |
| Keywords: | Russian invasion of Ukraine; foreign aid |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00001:103108 |
| By: | Alessandra Michelangeli; Umut Türk |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused an unprecedented economic shock, yet reliable measures of economic activity during wartime are scarce, particularly at the subnational level. Official GDP statistics are available only at the national level and with substantial delays, while no systematic estimates exist on how the war affected economic activity across regions. This paper provides the first subnational assessment of the economic impact of the war in Ukraine by exploiting satellite-based nighttime light data as a proxy for local economic activity. Using annual VIIRS Day/Night Band data for the period 2014–2024, we analyze changes in nighttime light intensity across Ukrainian urban areas and relate them to geographic exposure to armed conflict events recorded by ACLED. We estimate two-way fixed effects models that exploit within-urban area variation over time and spatial variation in distance to conflict locations following the escalation of the war in 2022. At the national level, we document a strong correlation between official GDP and nighttime lights, supporting the validity of the proxy in the Ukrainian context. Our results reveal a pronounced spatial gradient in wartime economic disruption. Urban areas located closer to conflict events experienced significantly larger declines in nighttime light intensity after 2022, while economic losses attenuate sharply with distance and largely dissipate beyond approximately 50 kilometers. These findings highlight the highly localized nature of wartime economic damage and underscore the value of satellite data for measuring economic activity in settings characterized by data gaps, conflict, and institutional disruption. |
| Keywords: | Nighttime lights; Armed conflict; Economic activity; Ukraine; War |
| JEL: | O47 R11 F51 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:572 |
| By: | Stewart, Susan |
| Abstract: | A series of scandals in Ukraine has shown that Russia's war of aggression has not put an end to corruption in the country. Although Ukraine's specialised institutions play an important role in combating corruption, the country's governance model does not yet meet the requirements of the rule of law, allowing corruption to remain entrenched. The difficulties involved in fundamentally overhauling this model are often underestimated. However, such a transformation will be necessary for Ukraine's accession to the EU. Both Kyiv and Brussels will need to work on several tracks simultaneously to consolidate the rule of law in Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, EU, Russia's war of aggression, scandals, oligarchs, rule of law, combating corruption, governance model, Andriy Yermak, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, Donald Trump |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:340856 |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara; von Ondarza, Nicolai; Seebass, Frauke |
| Abstract: | Since Russia launched its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has pursued its enlargement policy as part of a geopolitical approach. According to the European Commission and candidate states, the EU could admit new members from 2028 onwards, while Ukraine is calling for accession in 2027. Yet significant obstacles remain. Within the EU, the reform process designed to improve its capacity to act and prepare it for a Union of 30 or more has stalled. However, the readiness of accession candidates and the Union's absorption capacity are key criteria that German European policy has traditionally upheld. There is currently intense debate within the EU regarding gradual integration, fast-track routes, and new safeguard clauses aimed at reducing the tension between geopolitical urgency and sound integration policy. With regard to the Western Balkan states, the EU should adhere to the well-established accession process. In the case of Ukraine, the situation is so acute that the political commitment to admit the country must be reaffirmed. As a preliminary step towards membership, the EU should offer Kyiv a new type of accession association that also includes a security and defence dimension. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Western Balkans, Moldova, Hungary, Turkey, Georgia, Germany, EU Enlargement, EU reform process, Russia, war of aggression, gradual integration, fast-track routes, new safeguard clauses, European Economic Area (EEA) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:340858 |
| By: | Demary, Markus |
| Abstract: | Öl- und Gaspreise sind infolge des Iran-Krieges um jeweils knapp 40 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahr gestiegen. Dies erinnert an die Energiekrise zu Beginn des russischen Angriffs auf die Ukraine. Die Inflationsrate lag infolge im September 2022 bei 10 Prozent. Besteht nun das Risiko, dass die Teuerungsrate in diesem Jahr ähnlich stark ansteigen wird? |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:340871 |
| By: | Wyatt Brooks; Kevin Donovan |
| Abstract: | We study time-consistent optimal policy when undiversified owner-operators face financial frictions and a planner with limited instruments. We apply it to fertilizer subsidies, one of the largest sector-specific policy instruments in the developing world and whose price is becoming increasingly volatile. We collect household-level data from 444 rural Rwandan villages from 2020 - 2024 and exploit the doubling of fertilizer prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Relative to less fertilizer-intensive villages, more fertilizer-intensive villages experience 30 percent lower fertilizer spending, 21 percent lower harvests, and 11 percent higher output prices. These patterns discipline key model elasticities. The optimal response balances a desire to reallocate production toward less fertilizer-dependent villages, while dampening the consumption loss in more fertilizer-dependent villages. Quantitatively, these forces offset and the subsidy remains at 10 percent before and after the shock. |
| JEL: | O10 O11 O4 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35126 |
| By: | Jaime Arellano-Bover; Shmuel San |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants' labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants' job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants' long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Firms |
| JEL: | J15 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2545 |
| By: | De Gobbi, Maria Sabrina,; Kühn, Stefan,; Heins, Guido,; Malikova, Ziyodakhon, |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies existing labour market challenges associated with ageing in Europe and Central Asia. It presents a general overview and provides ideas to stimulate social dialogue. In 2024, there were 28 persons aged 65 years and above per 100 persons aged 15 to 64 years and this ratio is projected to rise to 43 by 2050. The proportion of older workers (55 years and above) will increase, while the prime-age workforce (25 to 54 years) will decline. This demographic transition is expected to result in a net loss of 10 million workers in the region by 2050. As pension systems increasingly have to rely on a diminishing pool of younger workers, sustaining current living standards will become more challenging. Productivity growth in Europe and Central Asia has been falling since 1991. New sources of productivity have to be unlocked if current standards of living are to be maintained. Increasing the labour force participation of inadequately represented groups, including women, persons with disabilities, the youth, migrants and refugees may only partially improve the situation. However, it would be a step forward in improving the outlook for the challenges that the region is experiencing. |
| Keywords: | labour force, ageing population, older workers, social dialogue |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ilo:ilowps:995649976202676 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines Azerbaijan’s post-oil economic trajectory and assesses the country’s growing exposure to the middle-income trap. Drawing on retrospective macroeconomic data, medium- and long-term forecasts, and comparative evidence from Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, the study argues that Azerbaijan’s hydrocarbon-dependent growth model has become increasingly unsustainable. While oil and gas revenues supported rapid growth during the boom years, declining oil production, weak diversification, low productivity growth, and reduced foreign investment have contributed to a sharp slowdown since 2016. The analysis shows that Azerbaijan is projected to underperform its regional peers in GDP growth, GDP per capita, innovation capacity, governance quality, economic freedom, and human development. Institutional constraints, monopolization, systemic corruption, and limited political and civil liberties further weaken the country’s capacity for structural transformation. The article concludes that, absent comprehensive market-oriented reforms, stronger institutions, anti-corruption measures, and productivity-enhancing diversification, Azerbaijan is likely to remain trapped in the upper-middle-income category for an extended period, while Armenia, Georgia, and Kazakhstan are better positioned to converge toward high-income status. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, post-oil economy, middle-income trap, economic diversification, hydrocarbon dependence, institutional quality, governance, corruption, economic growth, freedoms |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:340201 |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Thu Pham; Beckett Pierce; Maxim L. Pinkovskiy |
| Abstract: | In March 2026, energy prices surged to a four-year high, driven by the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. In this Liberty Street Economics post, we use the new consumer spending module of the Economic Heterogeneity Indicators to analyze recent changes in nominal and real gas consumption across different income groups. We find that households had very different experiences with gasoline spending: in March, high-income households increased nominal spending the most and kept real consumption essentially unchanged, while low-income households decreased real consumption of gasoline but still saw sharply increased nominal spending because of the rise in gas prices. Therefore, with the sharp increases in gasoline prices in March, a K-shaped pattern in gasoline consumption emerged—showing faster consumption growth for high-income households relative to low-income households. These gasoline consumption patterns qualitatively match those following the increase in energy prices at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war in spring 2022, even though the gap in consumption trends during the current episode is quantitatively larger. |
| Keywords: | heterogeneity; K-shaped economy; gasoline; Middle East war (2026) |
| JEL: | D31 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–05–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:103173 |
| By: | Aldashev, Alisher (Kazakh British Technical University); Danzer, Alexander (Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt) |
| Abstract: | Ceremonies are central to social life, yet the pressure to conform to community spending norms traps households in a collectively suboptimal equilibrium, imposing severe financial burdens. Using nationally and regionally representative longitudinal data from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, we document that ceremonial expenditures are sizeable, display striking income inelasticities, and are strongly shaped by local spending norms, making celebrations disproportionately burdensome for poorer households. We evaluate two distinct regulatory approaches through separate natural experiments: a top-down legal ban on lavish wedding celebrations in Tajikistan and a bottom-up, community-driven norm agreement in Kyrgyzstan- interventions with close analogues in Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. Both yield reductions in ceremonial spending, with household savings larger under the bottom-up approach, but they operate through fundamentally different compliance mechanisms. The top-down reform hinges on external monitoring and credible sanctions, while the bottom-up intervention relies on social trust and norm internalization. These findings identify external enforcement and social trust as the key compliance mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | ceremonial spending, conspicuous consumption, compliance, monitoring, trust, anti-poverty policy |
| JEL: | D12 D04 H31 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18585 |
| By: | Erdinc Akyildirim; Gonul Colak; Giray Gozgor; Thang Ho |
| Abstract: | This paper constructs a novel firm-level measure of geopolitical risk using textual analysis of 130, 061 earnings conference call transcripts and examines its impact on firms' reliance on bank-based financing. Using a panel of 4, 692 listed firms across 38 countries over 2005–2024, we find that higher firm-level geopolitical risk is associated with a significant increase in the bank debt ratio. Instrument-level analysis shows that this effect is driven by greater reliance on term loans, while revolving credit facilities exhibit no systematic response. The relationship holds across United States and non-United States firms, as well as across developed and emerging economies, with stronger effects in emerging markets and in institutional environments that facilitate contracting and enforcement. A comprehensive set of robustness tests confirms that the results are not driven by industry composition, regional concentration, crisis periods, or omitted institutional factors. Difference-in-differences evidence around the Russia–Ukraine war provides additional support, showing that firms with higher pre-war geopolitical risk increase their reliance on bank debt after 2022. Overall, the findings identify geopolitical risk as a time-varying determinant of corporate financing decisions. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, bank debt, term loans, capital structure, institutional environment, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | G32 G21 F34 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12624 |