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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Marianna Kudlyak; Sophia Lobozynska; Iryna Skomorovych; Ulyana Vladychyn; Andriy Kovalyuk; Iryna Snovydovych |
| Abstract: | We elicit reservation wage premia for relocating to two Ukrainian cities, using a household survey conducted in mid-April to mid-July 2024 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: high-risk Kharkiv (near the frontline) and moderate-risk Kyiv. Risk tolerance is a strong predictor of willingness to move to Kharkiv—the most risk-averse have roughly half the odds of the most risk-tolerant—but matters much less for Kyiv. This asymmetry is difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that risk tolerance merely proxies for general mobility preferences. Separately estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS≈0.04), we find that including it renders risk tolerance insignificant for Kyiv but not for Kharkiv—a pattern illuminated by the Epstein-Zin separation of risk aversion and the EIS: risk aversion adds predictive power only when danger is high, while the EIS operates equally for both cities as a common relocation-cost channel. The very low EIS implies that relocation incentives structured as future benefits may be ineffective; front-loaded subsidies are more likely to influence behavior. |
| JEL: | D15 D81 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35072 |
| By: | Stephen W. Salant; Diego S. Cardoso; Julien Xavier Daubanes |
| Abstract: | To reduce Russia's ability to fund its war in Ukraine, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports. Policy-makers sought a ceiling level to lower Russia's oil profits without raising excessively the world price buyers pay for oil. Previous analyses have explored this problem using simulations and, with a single exception, have treated the non-Russian supply response as exogenous. We pose the problem theoretically as a constrained minimization problem of the policy maker and solve it, treating Russia as either a monopolist or an oligopolist facing heterogeneous rivals with endogenous supply. |
| Keywords: | price cap, oil price, strategic supply |
| JEL: | L13 Q41 D78 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12608 |
| By: | Болат Айткен // Bolat Aitken (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В исследовании анализируются детерминанты цен на рынке жилой недвижимости Республики Казахстан на основе данных объявлений о продаже квартир, размещенных на сайте krisha.kz. В качестве зависимой переменной используется логарифм цены за квадратный метр. Для оценки влияния характеристик объектов и локационных факторов применяются модели множественной линейной регрессии с робастными стандартными ошибками, что позволяет учесть наличие гетероскедастичности. Результаты показывают значимое влияние принадлежности города к числу городов республиканского значения, типа здания, высоты потолков, возраста дома, статуса квартиры как бывшего общежития и стадии завершенности строительства. Отдельный анализ для городов Астана и Алматы выявляет выраженные пространственные различия в формировании цен. В Астане ключевыми факторами являются расположение относительно берегов реки Ишим, близость к паркам и торгово-развлекательным центрам, а в Алматы - район города, положение относительно проспекта Аль-Фараби и расстояние до станции метро. Полученные результаты подтверждают важность учета как характеристик объектов недвижимости, так и локационных факторов при анализе цен на рынке жилья Казахстана. // The study analyzes the determinants of residential real estate prices in the Republic of Kazakhstan based on data from apartment sale listings posted on the website krisha.kz. The dependent variable used is the logarithm of the price per square meter. To assess the impact of property characteristics and locational factors, multiple linear regression models with robust standard errors are applied, which allows for accounting for the presence of heteroskedasticity. The results indicate a significant influence of a city’s status as a city of republican significance, building type, ceiling height, building age, the apartment’s status as a former dormitory, and the stage of construction completion. A separate analysis for the cities of Astana and Almaty reveals pronounced spatial differences in price formation. In Astana, key factors include proximity to the Ishim River banks, closeness to parks, and accessibility to shopping and entertainment centers; in Almaty, the relevant factors are the city district, location relative to Al-Farabi Avenue, and distance to the nearest metro station. The findings confirm the importance of considering both property characteristics and locational factors when analyzing residential housing prices in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | рынок жилья, Казахстан, гедоническая модель, цены на недвижимость, housing market, Kazakhstan, hedonic model, real estate prices |
| JEL: | R3 R31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:72 |
| By: | Акылбеков Ален // Akylbekov Alen (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Нурханова Оксана // Nurkhanova Oxana (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В работе анализируется динамика развития краткосрочного небанковского кредитования населения (payday loans, PDL) в Казахстане. Проведенный сравнительный анализ международных регуляторных практик показывает, что Казахстан следует общемировому тренду в регулировании данного сегмента. На основе агрегированных данных по портфелю, качеству PDL-займов и децильного анализа поведения заемщиков установлено, что при сохранении роста рынка микрокредитования доля сегмента PDL в секторе МФО сокращается, но остается источником рисков из-за высокой концентрации задолженности на узкой группе клиентов. Полученные результаты указывают на то, что дальнейшее развитие PDL-сегмента в условиях ограниченного роста доходов населения может усиливать как кредитные, так и социальные риски, даже при формальном снижении его доли в общем объеме микрокредитования. // The paper analyzes the dynamics of the development of short-term non-bank lending to the population (payday loans, PDL) in Kazakhstan. A comparative analysis of international regulatory practices shows that Kazakhstan follows the global trend in regulating this segment. Based on aggregated portfolio data, quality PDL loans and a decile analysis of borrowers' behavior found that while the microcredit market continued to grow, the share of the PDL segment in the microfinance sector is shrinking, but remains a source of risks due to the high concentration of debt on a narrow group of customers. The results obtained indicate that the further development of the PDL segment in the conditions of limited growth of the population's income may increase both credit and social risks, even with a formal decrease in its share in the total volume of microcrediting. |
| Keywords: | микрофинансы, небанковское финансирование, Payday loans, PDL, кредиты до зарплаты |
| JEL: | G21 G23 O15 O16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:73 |
| By: | Corrado, L.; Grassi, S.; Paolillo, A.; Ravazzolo, F. |
| Abstract: | We study how the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reshaped energy prices and macroeconomic conditions in the Euro area. We develop and estimate a two-sector model in which oil, coal, and gas are combined to produce refined energy used by households and firms. The model allows for complementarities between energy and non-energy inputs, so shocks to individual energy markets propagate broadly through production, consumption, and inflation. Focusing on shocks specific to oil, coal, and gas from the onset of the pandemic to 2022:Q3, we find that they raised energy inflation by about 36 percentage points and headline inflation by 1.8 percentage points. Complementarities, wage indexation, and monetary policy amplify these effects, while subsidies offset them only partially. |
| Keywords: | Fossil Energy, Supply Shocks, Inflation, Complementarities, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 E62 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026–04–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2629 |
| By: | Fantazzini, Dean; Kurbatskii, Alexey |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the utility of Google Trends data for nowcasting and forecasting regional Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) in Russia. For nowcasting, we compare random walk, ARIMA, and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models, with and without search data. For forecasting, we evaluate ten approaches, including Vector Autoregression (VAR) with Hierarchical Lasso (HLag), dynamic factor models, and shrinkage methods. Results show that for nowcasting, multivariate ARDL models with macroeconomic data consistently outperform simpler ones, while Google Trends adds positive but limited value. In forecasting, search data offers negligible average improvement due to a structural break in early 2022: its predictive power was significant before the geopolitical shift but degraded sharply afterward. Instead, the VAR model with HLag sparsity and comprehensive macroeconomic data consistently proves superior. A robustness check with random forests confirms the advantage of the sparse structured approach. The study highlights the nuanced role of online data and the importance of sparse models for robust forecasting in Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | Nowcasting and Forecasting; Google Trends; Russian Regions; ARDL; VAR; Hierarchical Lasso; Random Forests; Regional CPI; Nonparametric Shrinkage |
| JEL: | C14 C32 C53 C55 E31 E37 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128456 |
| By: | Lea Karbevska; Liming Xu; Zehui Dai; Sara AlMahri; Alexandra Brintrup |
| Abstract: | As global political tensions rise and the anticipation of additional tariffs from the United States on international trade increases, the issues of economic independence and supply chain resilience become more prominent. The importance of supply chain resilience has been further underscored by disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine. In light of these challenges, ranging from geopolitical instability to product supply uncertainties, governments are increasingly focused on adopting new trade policies. This study explores the impact of several of these policies on the global electric vehicle (EV) supply chain network, with a particular focus on their effects on country clusters and the broader structure of international trade. Specifically, we analyse three key policies: Country Plus One, Friendshoring, and Reshoring. Our findings show that Friendshoring, contrary to expectations, leads to greater globalisation by increasing the number of supply links across friendly countries, potentially raising transaction costs. The Country Plus One policy similarly enhances network density through redundant links, while the Reshoring policy creates challenges in the EV sector due to the high number of irreplaceable products. Additionally, the effects of these policies vary across industries; for instance, mining goods being less affected in Country Plus One than the Friendshoring policy. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.11479 |
| By: | Төлепберген Әлішер // Tolepbergen Alisher (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Индекс потребительских цен (ИПЦ) является мерой инфляции, используемой директивными органами и участниками рынка в Казахстане. Однако ряд ИПЦ слишком волатилен, чтобы обеспечить надёжную оценку тренда инфляции, которая необходима директивным органам и участникам рынка для принятия решений. Кроме того, годовые показатели инфляции являются запаздывающими индикаторами по отношению к месячной инфляции и, следовательно, упускают поворотные моменты. Таким образом, директивные органы используют показатель «базовой» инфляции, который исключает из ИПЦ волатильные компоненты, такие как цены на фрукты, овощи и энергоносители. Однако это не решает проблему поворотных моментов. В данной работе разрабатывается новый индикатор базовой инфляции для Казахстана с использованием перекрёстных и динамических связей между ценовыми и неценовыми переменными в большой панельной выборке данных. Мы оцениваем два индикатора базовой инфляции для Казахстана, которые обладают некоторыми привлекательными статистическими свойствами в отличие от традиционных метрик базовой инфляции. // The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the measure of inflation followed by policymakers and market participants in Kazakhstan. However, due to its volatility, the CPI series is not a reliable measure of the underlying trend in inflation. This makes it difficult for policymakers to make informed decisions about monetary policy. In addition, the annual inflation measures that are used policymakers are lagging indicators and hence miss turning points in the inflation rate. Thus, policymakers employ the measure of "core" inflation that excludes certain volatile components, such as fruits and vegetables from the CPI calculation. However, this measure has limitations when it comes to capturing turning points. This paper proposes a new approach to estimating core inflation index for Kazakhstan by utilizing cross-sectional and dynamic links between prices and non-price variables in a large dataset. We estimate two indicators of core inflation for Kazakhstan that have some attractive statistical properties in contrast to traditional measures of core inflation. |
| Keywords: | базовая инфляция, динамическая факторная модель, денежно-кредитная политика, прогноз инфляции, core inflation, Dynamic Factor Model, monetary policy, inflation forecast |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:74 |
| By: | Zhangying Li (Economics and Management School, Wuhan University); O-Chia Chuang (School of Digital Economics, Hubei University of Economics); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | The onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 caused significant fluctuations in global energy markets, particularly in natural gas prices, highlighting the growing importance of natural gas for financial market stability. Using a structural econometric framework, we analyze the dynamic effects of natural gas supply shocks compared to three distinct oil shocks popularly used in the energy economics literature using constant and time-varying parameter local projections model, and associated historical decomposition. Our findings reveal that supply shocks of natural gas has replaced oil as the primary driver of stock market volatility, particularly during the 2022 energy crisis. Additionally, natural gas supply shocks are found to perform better in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise compared to oil supply shocks. These results suggest the need for policymakers and investors to incorporate natural gas price dynamics into financial risk management frameworks for Europe. |
| Keywords: | Natural Gas Price Supply Shocks, Oil price Supply Shocks, Stock Price Volatility, Local Projection, Forecasting |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202609 |
| By: | Simshauser, P.; Gilmore, J. |
| Abstract: | Electricity prices across Europe, North America and Asia -Pacific surged following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, driven by severe spikes in LNG and coal prices. In Australia, average household electricity tariffs in the National Electricity Market were ~23c/kWh in 2021. By 2025 tariffs had increased by 33% to ~30c/kWh, and provides an interesting case study of predictable policy aftershocks. Australians were told renewables would be cheaper, yet electricity bills had risen sharply. Are renewables cheaper? In this article, we focus on the wholesale market component of retail electricity tariffs in Australia and examine a counterfactual policy scenario – a world where market entrants over the past two decades were constrained to coal- and gas-fired generation, rather than renewables. We compare these results to the NEM’s transitioning plant stock, with ever -rising levels of wind, utility-scale and rooftop solar, along with the emergent firming fleet, viz. batteries, pumped hydro and new entrant gas turbines. Our counterfactual policy scenario would result in wholesale market costs and prices ~30-50% higher. Coal and gas were once unambiguously the NEM’s lowest cost entrants. That period has ended. Structurally high coal plant costs and export -parity gas prices means renewables and firming assets represent the dominant new entrants to meet demand growth, and supply gaps created by aging coal plant exits. |
| Keywords: | Renewables, Coal, Natural Gas, Dispatchable Plant Capacity |
| JEL: | D52 D53 G12 L94 Q40 |
| Date: | 2025–11–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2626 |
| By: | Kaminski, Alen |
| Abstract: | This paper extends the K-coefficient model of systemic crisis, introduced in Anatomy of Chaos: A Theoretical Framework for Forecasting the Morphology of Post-Crisis Regime, by integrating a game-theoretic layer that addresses a question the baseline model cannot answer: why do systems under comparable structural pressure follow divergent transitional paths? The K-coefficient, defined as the ratio of the Structural Stress Index (SSI) to the Structural Resilience Index (SRI), identifies the zone of critical pressure with empirically demonstrated consistency. However, it does not explain why systems with similar K values produce outcomes ranging from rapid regime change to protracted civil war to regime survival without significant concessions. The paper proposes that this divergence is explained by coordination dynamics, formalized through the framework of global games (Morris and Shin, 1998, 2003). Five coordination variables are introduced: R (expected cost of uncoordinated action), C (network connectivity), EFI (Equilibrium Fragility Index = K × C/R), T (coordination threshold), and K_eff (effective K-coefficient = K × (1 + C/R)). The model defines two Nash equilibria — NE1 (inaction) and NE2 (action) — and specifies the conditions under which a stochastic trigger, functioning as a public signal, initiates the transition between them. The formal apparatus is applied to three case studies. The USSR and the Eastern Bloc (1989–1991) demonstrate cascading R decline: each successive regime collapse reduced the expected cost of action in neighboring systems. The Arab Spring (2010–2011) demonstrates heterogeneity of outcomes under a single cascading signal: six systems with K values in the range of 2.10 to 2.86 produced six distinct outcomes, with variation corresponding to differences in EFI. Ukraine (2013–2014) demonstrates non-cascading transition and the repression paradox: the regime escalated coercive force, but in a high-C environment each act of repression functioned as a public signal that reduced R rather than raising it. An extended sample of twenty-two additional cases confirms three empirical patterns: high K combined with high EFI produces rapid transition; high K combined with low EFI produces protracted conflict or regime survival; and moderate K produces indeterminate outcomes regardless of EFI. The paper acknowledges significant limitations: retrospective assignment of variable values, absence of inter-coder reliability, and the absence of a blind predictive test. Five directions for future research are identified, with the blind predictive test designated as the first priority. |
| Date: | 2026–04–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:wxbvq_v1 |
| By: | Alishan Khan (Syracuse University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies when financial sanctions induce BRICS countries to coordinate alternative trade settlement regimes. I develop a dynamic quantitative gravity framework in which countries trade under a dominant dollar-based settlement regime and face stochastic financial sanctions that raise the effective cost of dollar-settled transactions through payment-system frictions. Countries may instead coordinate on an alternative trade settlement arrangement that insulates intra-coalition trade from the sanctions wedge but entails scale-dependent network costs together with one-time switching costs and smaller return costs. Equilibrium wages, prices, and welfare are computed in an Eaton--Kortum general equilibrium, and forward-looking regime choice is determined by value iteration in a persistent sanctions environment. The model generates endogenous switching thresholds corresponding to economically meaningful trade-cost shocks, roughly equivalent to 20–25% reductions in trade under dollar settlement, together with coalition formation dynamics under collective and sequential arrangements. Quantitative results show that collective adoption becomes optimal at moderate sanctions intensity, while bilateral initiation typically requires higher sanctions because marginal costs remain elevated in small coalitions. The founding bilateral coalition is China--Russia, whose combined trade scale generates sufficient marginal cost compression to trigger an immediate cascade to the full BRICS bloc. Coordination frictions between the collective benchmark and the self-enforcing full-coalition threshold are small, and redistribution can sustain coordination over a somewhat wider range of sanctions intensities. Evaluated at current country-specific sanctions intensities, the model is consistent with the observed bilateral shift in China--Russia trade settlement while explaining the absence of switching among other BRICS pairs. The framework provides a tractable approach to studying trade coalitions and financial sanctions in a geoeconomic environment. |
| Keywords: | International Trade; Financial Sanctions; Trade Coalitions; BRICS; Geoeconomics |
| JEL: | F15 F51 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202610 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Davronova, Durdonabonu |
| Abstract: | Emerging discourses present evidence from post-Soviet countries, suggesting that remittances may complement household resilience capacity in the face of climate change. This manuscript, using “COVID-19 Georgia High-Frequency Survey (GHFS)” data from the World Bank, aims to analyse the effect of remittance on household resilience capacity in Georgia. The measurement strategy employs the Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) approach, as proposed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). RIMA measures Resilience Index Capacity (RCI) through available household adaptive options (pillars): Access to Basic Services (ABS), Adaptive Capacity (AC), Social Safety Nets (SSN), and Sensitivity (S). The results of the econometric model indicate that remittance has a positive impact on RCI, primarily through the ABS and AC pillars. Further policies in Georgia should consider the role of remittances in enhancing household resilience, ensuring that the negative consequences of shocks do not have long-lasting effects on household livelihoods. |
| Keywords: | Remittance, climate change, household resilience, capacity |
| JEL: | A1 Q00 C1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:339912 |
| By: | Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Primov, Abdulla; Khamidov, Imomjon |
| Abstract: | The study provides some fresh insights into the Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN) framework in Bukhara and Karakalpakstan in Uzbekistan. The findings confirm that loss in production, soil erosion, deforestation, decreasing arable land, salinization, and water management are the most prevailing challenges in the region. Our resilience analysis confirms that access to basic services, assets, adaptive capacity, and social safety nets enhances household resilience. Socio-economic results of LDN show the importance of an institutional approach, a capacity approach, a gender-sensitive approach, food and water integration, financial support and incentives, and other synergies. For LDN, special attention is needed to restore biodiversity and productivity, which may yield significant economic benefits for agriculture and horticulture. A priority should be given to a sustainable development approach that will focus on socio-economic development, environmental protection, and inclusivity in the regions. There is a noticeable intervention showing the disintegration of the ecosystem in supporting income-generating activities in the region. This situation requires a sustainable development intervention enhancing the implementation of LDN. |
| Keywords: | Degradation, Climate change, Land, Resilience |
| JEL: | A1 Q10 R20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339913 |
| By: | Alisher Aldashev; Alexander M. Danzer |
| Abstract: | Ceremonies are central to social life, yet the pressure to conform to community spending norms traps households in a collectively suboptimal equilibrium, imposing severe financial burdens. Using nationally and regionally representative longitudinal data from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, we document that ceremonial expenditures are sizeable, display striking income inelasticities, and are strongly shaped by local spending norms, making celebrations disproportionately burdensome for poorer households. We evaluate two distinct regulatory approaches through separate natural experiments: a top-down legal ban on lavish wedding celebrations in Tajikistan and a bottom-up, community-driven norm agreement in Kyrgyzstan—interventions with close analogues in Afghanistan, China, India, and Pakistan. Both yield reductions in ceremonial spending, with household savings larger under the bottom-up approach, but they operate through fundamentally different compliance mechanisms. The top-down reform hinges on external monitoring and credible sanctions, while the bottom-up intervention relies on social trust and norm internalization. These findings identify external enforcement and social trust as the key compliance mechanisms underlying top-down and bottom-up consumption regulations respectively, with broader implications for the design of policies targeting socially motivated expenditures. |
| Keywords: | ceremonial spending, conspicuous consumption, compliance, monitoring, trust, anti-poverty policy |
| JEL: | D12 D04 H31 O17 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12610 |