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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Theodore Panagiotidis (University of Macedonia, Greece); Zoi Tzitzimika (University of Macedonia, Greece); Konstantinos Kakouris (University of Macedonia, Greece) |
| Abstract: | We examine how the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected equity prices in the global aluminum industry. Using an event-study framework applied to daily stock returns of ten major aluminum producers across countries, we document heterogeneous market responses. European firms exhibit negative cumulative average abnormal returns (CAARs), with losses of up to 6.5%, whereas non-European producers record positive CAARs of up to 10.5% in the immediate post-event period, suggesting that some firms benefited from shifting supply conditions. Our findings demonstrate that geopolitical shocks are priced unevenly within commodity-intensive industries, with proximity as a key determinant of market reactions. |
| Keywords: | Russian-Ukrainian war; geopolitical events; aluminum stock returns; event study methodology; multi-country sample; abnormal returns. |
| Date: | 2026–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2026_12 |
| By: | Fischer, Sabine |
| Abstract: | 2026 ist kein gutes Jahr für das Putin-Regime. Die Front in der Ukraine bewegt sich kaum, ukrainische Drohnen und Raketen treffen Ziele weit im russischen Hinterland, die Wirtschaft schwächelt, und die Stimmung im Land verschlechtert sich. Unter diesen erschwerten Bedingungen muss die Kreml-Administration einen weiteren Sieg der Machtpartei Einiges Russland organisieren, denn im September steht die Wahl zur Staatsduma an. Dabei kann das russische Parlament seine Funktion als Legitimitätsressource in der personalistischen Putin-Diktatur kaum noch erfüllen. An der chronischen Schwäche der regimekonformen Parteien ist dies ebenso abzulesen wie an der Groteske um den Wahlausschluss der Jabloko-Partei. |
| Keywords: | Russland, Staatsduma, Duma-Wahl 2026, Wahlmanipulation, Kreml, Wladimir Putin, russische Parteien, Einiges Russland (ER), Jabloko, Liberal-Demokratische Partei Russlands (LDPR), Kommunistische Partei der Russischen Föderation (KPRF), Gerechtes Russland (GR), Neue Menschen (NM) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:344004 |
| By: | Hubert Gabrisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This article critically analyses the German proposal of ‘associate membership’ for Ukraine, considering it against the backdrop of the tension between geopolitical challenges and the Union’s capacity to act. It begins with the premise that the Union’s current economic and political weakness stems from its institutional architecture, which no longer allows it to respond adequately to geopolitical challenges. This has resulted in the Union being sidelined in international diplomacy regarding Ukraine, and poses the risk of interference by Russia, China and the US in other candidate countries. Neither an expansion of the Union in terms of territory and population, nor a blurring of the fundamental distinction between association and membership instruments can change this situation. A resolute and pragmatic policy of internal reform is the superior alternative to the German proposal; until that can be put in place, one viable option could be to upgrade existing association agreements by incorporating the countries into the European Economic Area. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Merz proposal, enlargement, association, legal basis, treaty reforms |
| JEL: | F15 K33 O52 P48 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:111 |
| By: | Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction represents one of the largest economic challenges in modern Europe, requiring financial resources that far exceed the country’s domestic capacity. This paper argues that the European Union should not view the reconstruction as a burden but rather as a strategic investment in Europe’s long-term security, competitiveness, and resilience. It assesses the scale of Ukraine’s reconstruction needs, examines lessons from previous post-conflict recovery experiences, and analyses potential benefits for the EU from providing sustained financial support to Ukraine. The paper further evaluates policy instruments needed to mobilise private capital, a key driver of long-term recovery, including enhanced de-risking mechanisms, blended finance, and public-private partnerships. The paper concludes that a successful reconstruction strategy will require sustained grant-based international support, stronger investment risk mitigation, continued institutional reforms in Ukraine, and closer integration with the EU, enabling reconstruction to generate lasting economic and strategic benefits for both Ukraine and Europe. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, postwar reconstruction, the EU, Austria, the US; Marshall Plan, Croatia, South Korea, defence, economic security, renewable energy, critical minerals, economic integration, spillover effects, FDI, de-risking instruments, blended finance, public-private partnerships |
| JEL: | F15 F21 F34 F35 F51 F59 G20 H56 N10 N40 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:112 |
| By: | Ruedin, Didier |
| Abstract: | The objective of this research synthesis is to collect and summarize the research literature on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland. This is done through a systematic review, mostly in the form of a narrative review and with statistical indicators that are synthesized. There is a wide range of evidence on Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland and their integration, although substantive and systematic gaps remain. The review provides a brief historical background, looks at the demographic composition of Ukrainian refugees in Switzerland, discusses economic integration, housing, education, social integration, crime and safety, health and well-being, and attitudes to Ukrainian refugees. Much less is known about cultural integration and political participation. Given the size of the population and the ongoing war in Ukraine, more research on Ukrainian refugees is warranted, particularly in the direction of successful integration in a context where return seems increasingly unlikely --- although dual-intent remains the official focus ---, and in areas beyond economic integration that affect well-being and intentions to return. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, Switzerland, attitudes, demographics, economics, education, health, housing, integration, media, participation, refugees, literature review |
| JEL: | F22 O15 J15 J61 K37 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:343253 |
| By: | Johannes Brinkmann (University of Warwick); Nikhil Datta (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | Large supply shocks often raise concerns that retailers exploit rising costs to increase markups. We study the oil-price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine using wholesale fuel prices, near-universe daily retail prices across Great Britain, and more than 200 million precisely geolocated searches from a major fuel-price comparison platform. Despite fuel prices rising by 37% over the preceding 21 months with essentially no change in search, the abrupt post invasion increase triggered a more than twentyfold surge in daily search while retail margins contracted sharply. An event-study design shows that this shock-induced search increase causally reduced retail prices and margins, with 95th- versus 5th-percentile exposure implying an 8% margin reduction at the peak. The implied loss to retailer margins peaked at £5.2million per week, around £650 per station. We rationalise these findings with a model in which large, rapid price increases raise consumer attention and price sensitivity, intensifying competition and compressing margins. More broadly, supply shocks can therefore change not only firms’ costs but also the demand conditions governing how those costs are passed through. Consistent with the model’s additional predictions, pass-through is approximately complete and symmetric before the invasion, but lower and temporarily exhibits a pronounced rockets-and-feathers pattern afterwards. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1627 |
| By: | Donato Ceci (Bank of Italy); Claudia Pacella (Bank of Italy); Fabrizio Venditti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the unexpectedly weak consumption dynamics of euro-area households following the COVID-19 crisis. Despite a recovery in disposable income during the 2022 reopening and the government measures mitigating the energy shock after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the saving rate rose and remained high through 2025. We show that tighter monetary policy dampened consumption via higher interest rates, while inflation eroded real financial wealth, limiting spending further. Persistently weak consumer confidence also weighed on expenditure. However, even after taking account of these factors, the increase in savings remains unusually large by historical standards. We discuss two possible explanations: heightened pessimism about future income due to the exceptional sequence of shocks, and the disproportionate contribution of wealthier households to aggregate savings, as suggested by micro-level evidence. |
| Keywords: | consumption, savings, energy, monetary policy |
| JEL: | C11 C32 C53 C54 E21 E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1047_26 |
| By: | Nikulina, Yulia; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali; Götz, Linde; Petrick, Martin |
| Abstract: | The impact of state subsidies on Russia's post-Soviet dairy output remains controversial; this study provides an empirical analysis of that relationship. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 123 dairy enterprises in the Leningrad Region spanning the period from 2010 to 2023, we employ stochastic frontier analysis to assess these relationships. The results indicate that subsidies have a positive effect on dairy enterprise productivity, while their impact on technical efficiency cannot be clearly identified. Notably, the positive effect of subsidies is confined to a medium range of subsidy levels. The influence of different types of subsidies on productivity is multidirectional, as plant production and investment interest subsidies are associated with productivity gains, whereas breeding subsidies have a negative effect, and other subsidy types show no significant impact. Although our results suggest that milk production in Russia could be further increased through improvements in technical efficiency, the findings also indicate that distributing subsidies to a larger number of enterprises is more effective than allocating large subsidies to a limited number of recipients. Furthermore, the results suggest that dairy subsidy policy should be adjusted in favor of more decoupled and regionally differentiated subsidies at the district level. |
| Keywords: | Livestock Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:eaae25:412821 |
| By: | Kesternich, Martin; Tinnefeld, Vicky Leoni; Werthschulte, Madeline |
| Abstract: | The abrupt shortage of natural gas imports during the 2022/2023 energy crisis following Russia's war against Ukraine forced European countries to rapidly cut consumption. In response, governments and energy providers introduced voluntary gas-saving programs offering financial incentives to residential customers. We study one such program - a critical peak rebate (CPR) launched by one of Germany's largest energy providers - that offered a six-month per-unit bonus for demand reductions at a time when wholesale gas prices spiked but regulated retail prices remained fixed, muting the price signal households actually faced. Combining household meter readings with survey data, we use a difference-in-differences design to "stress test" a CPR scheme. We show that the program-induced average gas savings amount to 13.2 to 17 percent. Participation was more likely among higher consumption, higher income and pro-socially motivated households, who also achieved larger absolute savings. This reveals a trade-off between program effectiveness and distributional considerations in the design of demand flexibility programs. |
| Keywords: | Critical peak rebates, residential energy savings, energy crises, program enrollment, difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C21 D12 D91 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:343563 |
| By: | Javier Flórez Mendoza (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gentian Gashi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Gabor Hunya (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Juliane Unger; David Zenz (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Editorial insight A decade of political upheaval has fundamentally changed the CESEE economies by Richard Grieveson Over the past decade, Central, East and Southeast Europe (CESEE) has been reshaped by an almost continuous sequence of political and geopolitical shocks. What began actually more than a decade ago with Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and continued with the UK’s vote to leave the EU ten years ago this month, has evolved into a broader reconfiguration of the global economic order – one that is now deeply embedded in the region’s growth model, business environment and long-term prospects. Chart of the month The China shock 2.0 arrives in CESEE by David Zenz China’s export boom to the CESEE countries is no longer just about consumer goods increasingly, the new ‘China shock 2.0’ is making itself felt through industrial imports – from machinery and chemicals, to batteries and electric vehicles, in sectors that form the backbone of the region’s growth model. Chinese suppliers are increasingly replacing European ones within Europe’s own supply chain. Macro snapshot Labour-market momentum is slowing across EU-CEE by Gentian Gashi Labour-market conditions in EU-CEE initially improved following the pandemic, but that momentum has weakened in recent years, with several countries experiencing rising unemployment and declining or stagnant job-vacancy rates. The Beveridge curves highlight a growing heterogeneity across the region cyclical weakening in Romania, a possible labour-market mismatch in Lithuania and easing of the tight labour market in Hungary. Focus of the month Poland among NATO’s biggest defence spenders by Juliane Unger Poland has become one of NATO’s biggest defence spenders relative to GDP, approaching 4.8% in 2026. The buildup has so far been financed mainly through the issuance of national debt, with the national escape clause (NEC) providing legal cover since 2025. Additionally, the freshly implemented EU instrument Security Action for Europe (SAFE) provides a new financing tool for the coming years. By targeting domestic value added, it could strengthen both the Polish and the wider European economy. Research in brief Population ageing costs and required fiscal adjustment in EU-CEE Client Dezernat Zukunft by Meryem Gökten Population ageing in EU-CEE countries is expected to increase public spending, while at the same time slowing economic growth, creating significant challenges for fiscal policy. However, under the reformed EU fiscal framework, the fiscal adjustment required from governments crucially depends on underlying – and often arbitrary – assumptions about future ageing costs and debt sustainability. Geoeconomic fragmentation lessons for Europe and CESEE Client Asian Development Bank (ADB) by Javier Flórez Mendoza Our simulations show that tariffs used as a geopolitical tool can dramatically rewire global trade patterns. The effects are especially large in the case of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other high-tech hubs, but spillovers are also created for Europe and Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) through disrupted value chains and higher input costs. Country in focus Romania - Political tug-of-war places economic stability in danger by Gábor Hunya A long history of socialist-liberal coalitions came to an end in May 2026. The government that had saved the country from downgrading and that had made progress on the reforms required to access EU funds imploded. Whether the bulwark against the right-wing, anti-EU parties can be rebuilt remains an open question at the time of writing. What is clear is that the country risks severe fiscal and monetary instability if the fiscal consolidation programme fails and if access to EU funds is restricted in the absence of functioning legislative power. |
| Keywords: | growth model, war in Ukraine, Brexit, China shock 2.0, consumer goods, industrial goods, unemployment, job vacancies, Beveridge curve, defence spending, defence production, national escape clause, Security Action for Europe, population ageing, fiscal adjustment, EU fiscal framework, value chains, import tariffs, trade flows, political crisis, fiscal consolidation, EU funds |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2026-06 |
| By: | Bibilashvili, Mariam (Masaryk University) |
| Abstract: | Challenging the common understanding in the relevant literature, this study reconceptualizes resilience to hybrid threats as a politically mediated process rather than purely a matter of institutional capacity-building. To examine how policy frameworks and political rhetoric interact to shape resilience, it traces Georgia’s security culture in the aftermath of the Russo-Georgian war. Through intertextual discourse analysis, the article cross-examines the institutional architecture of digital resilience, encompassing cybersecurity (systemic), media regulation (protective) and media literacy (empowerment) measures, with the government’s shifting rhetoric (2023–2025), while interview data provide contextual insights. The analysis reveals a hybrid security culture manifested in fragmented governance and discursive struggle over resilience. Although formal policy frameworks normatively align with the West and consistently identify Russia as the principal security threat, governmental rhetoric portrays the same Western actors as sources of foreign interference and prioritizes political autonomy over cooperation while still invoking commitments to the constitutionally enshrined Euro-Atlantic trajectory. This dichotomy between institutional design and political discourse results in strategic ambiguity. It suggests that in hybrid regimes formal frameworks may function symbolically to signal external alignment, while practice is determined by short-term political calculations and discretionary authority, leaving institutions and societies vulnerable to evolving forms of foreign interference. |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ad258_v1 |
| By: | Bibilashvili, Mariam (Masaryk University); Bechná, Zinaida; Kakachia, Kornely |
| Abstract: | Moving beyond studies on contemporary security challenges posed by information manipulation, economic coercion, and military pressure, this article problematises the securitisation of foreign interference narratives by political leaders through the case of Georgia (2023–2025). The analysis draws on 325 social media posts by high-level officials and ten in-depth interviews with civic actors resisting state narratives. It relies on securitisation theory to (1) examine how political elites frame domestic actors as instruments of the Western interference despite the country’s constitutionally anchored pro-European orientation and overwhelming public support for EU integration, and (2) explore how counter-securitisation unfolds among civic actors. The findings reveal a structured securitising narrative grounded in sovereigntist logic, invoking historical memory, identity threats, and conspiracy framings to delegitimise civic actors as rootless and foreign aligned. However, rather than generating stable audience acceptance this securitising move triggers counter-securitisation as civic actors contest the proposed threat hierarchy, reframe Russia and democratic backsliding as primary dangers, and additionally mobilise performative resistance through street protest. The analysis highlights the agency of civic actors who simultaneously occupy the positions of securitised subjects and a segment of the audience and complements post-structuralist understandings of the securitisation as a co-constitutive and iterative rather than a linear process. |
| Date: | 2026–09–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qfv52_v1 |
| By: | Kárníková, Lydie |
| Abstract: | The naming of public spaces is a popular tool that ruling regimes have used since the second half of the 19th century to imprint their values on the public sphere and to express symbolic power. However, due to frequent changes in the political and social context, urban naming systems also change frequently. The most recent significant intervention in Central and Eastern Europe was the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in the early 1990s. Among the main features of the wave of post-socialist renaming were a widespread “cleansing of sins”—that is, the restoration of original names to places that had been renamed during the communist dictatorship—as well as numerous disputes and dilemmas regarding which names to remove and what to replace them with. Naming policy stems from a broader political and historical context, but ultimately it is always the result of negotiations within specific local conditions. This paper examines changes in city names—known as urbanonymy—through the lens of critical toponymy, which links cultural and political geography with history, memory studies, or anthropology. It presents the main trends in the transformation of urbanonymy in the period following the collapse of the socialist bloc and, based on selected works, offers insight into specific situations involving the renaming of public spaces, with a particular focus on Czech and Slovak cities. At the same time, it highlights a renewed wave of interest in lingering socialist toponyms and their repoliticization in the context of Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine after 2014. |
| Date: | 2026–09–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:brj6e_v1 |
| By: | Onur Polat (Institute of Informatics, Hacettepe University, Beytepe Campus, 06800 Çankaya, Ankara, Türkiye); Yuxiang Ye (School of Economics and Finance, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study examines whether decomposing the geopolitical risk (GPR) index into oil- and non-oil-related components yields incremental explanatory power for U.S. industry stock market volatility. Using daily conditional volatilities derived from a GJR-GARCH model with time-varying skewness and kurtosis (GJR-SK) across 49 Fama-French industries, we estimate autoregressive specifications with exogenous inputs (ARX). Each model incorporates rich macro-financial controls, including market portfolio volatility, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, and the shadow-rate-augmented federal funds rate. Through a sequence of properly nested F-tests, we address three core empirical questions: (i) whether non-oil GPR adds predictive content beyond the macro baseline; (ii) whether oil-specific GPR provides incremental information once non-oil GPR is controlled for; and (iii) whether a geographic decomposition across eight oil-producing regions enhances explanatory power beyond aggregate metrics. We find that non-oil GPR is incrementally significant in 35 of 49 industries. Conditional on non-oil GPR, aggregate oil-related risk remains incrementally significant in 23 industries, while its regional breakdown increases significance to 29 industries. Estimated coefficients demonstrate marked sign heterogeneity: for oil-intensive sectors, non-oil GPR reduces volatility while oil-specific risk elevates it, supporting a commodity-price information-resolution channel; for non-oil-intensive sectors, the pattern reverses, consistent with the classical risk-aversion channel of Bloom (2009). Regionally, geopolitical risk originating in the Middle East, Venezuela, and Asia systematically amplifies industry volatility, whereas risk originating in Russia and Africa exerts a stabilizing, volatility-dampening effect. |
| Keywords: | stock price volatility, industry sectors, geopolitical risk, oil geopolitical risk, ARX, nested F-test |
| JEL: | C22 G12 F51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202626 |
| By: | Simonov, Andrey; Mikhailov, Daniil; Enikolopov, Ruben; Durante, Ruben |
| Abstract: | News aggregators are among the primary gatekeepers of online news, shaping both consumption and production through the algorithms that rank stories and sources. We provide the first large-scale estimates of this algorithmic power using the example of Yandex News, Russia's largest aggregator. Combining archived front pages with 12.3 million published articles and outlet-level traffic data, we estimate that occupying the entire top-5 news block for a day raises an outlet's traffic by roughly 380, 000 visitors. After a 2016 law made aggregators liable for cited content, Yandex halved its references to independent outlets, yet consumers did not penalize the manipulation: its referrals converted readers at the same rate, and its market share did not fall. Removed outlets shifted toward longer articles and stopped optimizing headlines for the algorithm, showing that aggregator algorithms shape not only news consumption but also production. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:343993 |