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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Gregor, Leonard; Haucap, Justus |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5-6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany's strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. |
| Keywords: | Event Study, Ukraine Crisis, Fuel prices, Wholesale markets |
| JEL: | C33 G14 H56 L13 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:339575 |
| By: | Frangiamore, Francesco; Saadaoui, Jamel |
| Abstract: | Using local projections, this paper documents that neither global geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks nor GPR shocks originating in smaller euro area countries have a significant impact on Euro Area sovereign stress, whereas GPR shocks originating in Germany generate sizable effects, against the backdrop of the recent surge in geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical Risk, Sovereign Stress, Local Projections. |
| JEL: | E44 F51 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–01–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127823 |
| By: | Stewart, Susan |
| Abstract: | Eine Reihe von Skandalen in der Ukraine hat gezeigt, dass der russische Angriffskrieg der Korruption im Land kein Ende gesetzt hat. Auch wenn die Institutionen zu ihrer Bekämpfung eine wichtige Rolle spielen, ist Korruption in der Ukraine nach wie vor Symptom eines Governance-Modells, das den Anforderungen von Rechtsstaatlichkeit noch nicht genügt. Die Schwierigkeiten, die mit einer fundamentalen Überwindung dieses Modells einhergehen, werden oft unterschätzt. Eine solche Transformation wird für den Beitritt der Ukraine zur EU jedoch notwendig sein. Sowohl Kyjiw als auch Brüssel werden gleichzeitig an verschiedenen Strängen arbeiten müssen, um Rechtsstaatlichkeit in der Ukraine zu festigen. |
| Keywords: | Andrij Jermak, Kyrylo Budanow, Ihor Kolomojskyj, Rinat Achmetow, Viktor Juschtschenko, Petro Poroschenko, Viktor Janukowytsch |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:339622 |
| By: | Abildgren, Kim; Jensen, Rasmus Mose; Sørensen, Rasmus Rold; Cucic, Dominic; Partsch, Emil Holst |
| Abstract: | Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Denmark and other European countries to significantly boost their military spending. A scenario analysis suggests that meeting the new NATO target of 3.5 per cent of GDP in core defence spending from 2026 onwards may add moderately to capacity pressures in the Danish economy over the next few years. The impact on capacity pressures will depend on several factors including how quickly defence spending is increased and how much of the funds will be spent abroad. |
| Keywords: | defence spending, capacity pressures, NATO, fiscal policy, Denmark |
| JEL: | E62 H56 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:339393 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana; Oluwadare O. Ojo; Ruka O. Jimoh |
| Abstract: | This paper uses fractional integration methods to analyse the long-memory and persistence properties of inflation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) countries over the period from 1 January 1997 to 8 January 2025. This approach is more general than standard models based on the I(0) versus I(1) dichotomy, and is particularly suitable in the case of emerging countries such as the SCO ones, who have experienced structural change and different policy frameworks. Regardless of the assumption made about the errors in the model, the estimates of the fractional differencing parameter are found to imply unit root or explosive behaviour. This means that the effects of shocks tend to be long-lived, and thus decisive monetary policy actions appear to be required to bring inflation under control. Further, the subsample analysis suggests that the Russian invasion of Ukraine did not affect significantly the stochastic properties of the series under examination. |
| Keywords: | Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), inflation persistence, long-memory, fractional integration |
| JEL: | C22 E31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12578 |
| By: | Gilev, Aleksei; Vyrskaia, Marina; Nadporozhskii, Ilia (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Zavadskaya, Margarita (Finnish Institute of International Affairs) |
| Abstract: | This fourth wave of the Panel Study of Russian Public Opinion and Attitudes (PROPA), conducted in June 2025, provides new insights into how Russians view the economy, the war in Ukraine, political institutions, propaganda, and the country’s future. Economic perceptions remain broadly stable. Most respondents report that their household income enables them to cover basic and some discretionary expenses, although inflation remains a persistent concern. Evaluations of both personal and national economic conditions have neither improved nor sharply deteriorated, yet perceptions of inflation and limited growth continue to pose risks to regime legitimacy. Attitudes toward the war show a gradual but consistent erosion of open support for the “special military operation, ” falling from 52% to 48% since March 2024. Meanwhile, open opposition has grown modestly, and support for peace talks has increased. War fatigue, the spillover of drone attacks into Russian cities, and the disruption of daily life appear to be contributing factors. At the same time, many respondents remain ambivalent or unwilling to state their position, reflecting ongoing fear and censorship. Media consumption patterns highlight the effectiveness of state censorship: YouTube usage has dropped under state throttling, while reliance on Telegram for news has increased. Television remains dominant but shows signs of eroding trust. Political interest remains relatively high, though open discussion of politics has slightly declined, reflecting awareness of repression. Approval of political institutions continues to edge downward. Support for the State Duma and government has weakened, and even Vladimir Putin’s approval shows a modest but consistent decline. Although Putin retains support from more than half of respondents, the rally-around-the-flag effect has clearly waned. Institutions such as the police and courts enjoy particularly low moral authority, while the army and the Russian Orthodox Church remain relatively trusted. Expectations for the future are mixed. While most respondents continue to anticipate economic growth and see renewed mobilization as unlikely, optimism about a quick peace settlement has declined following unmet expectations of U.S.-mediated negotiations. Concerns about rising crime, linked to the reintegration of war veterans, are growing. Overall, the data suggest a society that is economically stable but politically fragile. War weariness, limited trust in institutions, and declining approval of state actors all indicate that the regime’s legitimacy depends increasingly on managing perceptions of economic stability and avoiding sharp shocks that could alter public expectations. |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:h6vms_v1 |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara (Ed.); Mair, Stefan (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | The Pax Americana, which guaranteed the security of Germany and Europe after the Second World War, is coming to an end. Europe can no longer rely on its alliance and partnership with the United States. Even before Donald Trump's second presidency, Europe was seeking to reduce its dependency on Washington for peace, democracy and prosperity. This cannot be achieved overnight, and will require a significant increase in material resources and strategic thinking over the next five to ten years. The fourteen contributions to this SWP Research Paper show how different the starting conditions for developing transition strategies are, depending on the policy area and challenges. Europe needs to consider all the options: with, without or even against Washington. The analyses of Europe's agency and the scope for European policy towards Russia, the Middle East and China are very wide-ranging. Trump's logic of quick deal-making and unilateralism under the banner of "MAGA" often collides fundamentally with the EU's multilateral foreign and security policy, which is bound by international law, and its commitment to sustainable peace. The keywords for the urgent reorganisation of security in Europe are: Europeanisation of NATO, strengthening Europe's own military capabilities, new leadership constellations for security policy in Europe, and resilient governance in technology and cybersecurity. Even at this geopolitical turning-point ("Zeitenwende"), the EU should continue to develop its soft power. When it comes to the crucial questions of global governance -from UN and international law to trade, climate and energy policy - Europe must find new partnerships and, if necessary, new institutional solutions without and against the United States. |
| Keywords: | Pax Americana, Germany, Europe, EU, United States, Russia, Ukraine. dependency, Russia, Middle East, China, Donald Trump, MAGA, sustainable peace, Europeanisation of NATO, strengthening Europe's own military capabilities, new leadership constellations for security policy in Europe, resilient governance in technology and cybersecurity, "Zeitenwende" |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:339603 |
| By: | Ю. Ю. Вергелюк (State Tax University); І. Ю. Гужва (State Research Institute for Informatization and Economic Modeling); М. О. Ганцяк (State Research Institute for Informatization and Economic Modeling) |
| Abstract: | Among the numerous factors determining Ukraine's economic security, debt risks occupy a central position. The cumulative nature of public debt, accompanied by the intensification of its negative effects, requires decisive, flexible, and adequate government actions. This creates an objective need to study the dominant features of modern debt policy in order to identify its gaps and substantiate directions for improvement. Trends in global debt markets exacerbate the negative dynamics of Ukraine's debt problems. Therefore, the rethinking of debt policy in the context of minimizing its adverse impact on economic security is a relevant and timely area of scientific research. The purpose of the study is to assess the dominant features of debt policy within the framework of ensuring Ukraine's economic security. The foundation of this research is a statistical database compiled from official data provided by Ukrainian government agencies, as well as international financial institutions and rating agencies. A wide range of general scientific and specialized research methods was applied, with particular emphasis on the modelling method, which was used to develop a debt security indicator that integrates macroeconomic, currency, and fiscal risks. The study demonstrates the presence of negative effects associated with the growing public debt and related issues, including significant pressure on the state budget, currency risks, increased debt dependence, and a decline in the investment attractiveness of government debt instruments. Identifying the distinctive features of Ukraine's current debt policy allowed for an assessment of its effectiveness and the tracing of cause-and-effect relationships between debt and economic security. Key characteristics of Ukraine's debt policy include exceeding fiscal capacities, surpassing solvency limits in planning and executing public borrowing, increasing the share of external loans and grants, temporarily disregarding scientifically justified debt safety thresholds, restructuring existing obligations, and seeking creditor agreements when scheduled payments cannot be met. Evaluating each of these aspects revealed threats to economic security, which underscores the need to rethink debt policy using the proposed quantitative models. The study found that Ukraine's debt policy significantly affects economic security and financial stability. In 2020-2024, rising budget deficits and public debt, dependence on external borrowing, and currency risks increased the economy's vulnerability. A transformation of debt policy is necessary to reduce debt burden, improve the efficiency of public borrowing management, and decrease foreign currency debt. Further research should focus on enhancing methods for assessing debt risks and modelling their impact on economic security. |
| Abstract: | Parmi les nombreux facteurs déterminant la sécurité économique de l'Ukraine, les risques liés à l'endettement occupent une place centrale. Le caractère cumulatif de la dette publique, accompagné de l'intensification de ses effets négatifs, exige des actions gouvernementales décisives, flexibles et adéquates. Cela crée un besoin objectif d'étudier les caractéristiques dominantes de la politique d'endettement contemporaine afin d'en identifier les lacunes et de justifier les orientations de son amélioration. Les tendances des marchés mondiaux de la dette aggravent la dynamique négative des problèmes d'endettement de l'Ukraine. Ainsi, la reconsidération de la politique d'endettement dans le contexte de la minimisation de son impact négatif sur la sécurité économique constitue un axe de recherche scientifique pertinent et actuel. L'objectif de l'étude est d'évaluer les caractéristiques dominantes de la politique d'endettement dans le cadre de la garantie de la sécurité économique de l'Ukraine. La base de cette recherche repose sur une base de données statistiques constituée à partir de données officielles fournies par les institutions publiques ukrainiennes, ainsi que par des institutions financières internationales et des agences de notation. Un large éventail de méthodes scientifiques générales et spécialisées a été appliqué, avec un accent particulier sur la méthode de modélisation, utilisée pour élaborer un indicateur de sécurité de la dette intégrant les risques macroéconomiques, de change et budgétaires. L'étude met en évidence la présence d'effets négatifs liés à l'accroissement de la dette publique et aux problèmes connexes, notamment une pression significative sur le budget de l'État, des risques de change, une dépendance accrue à l'endettement et une diminution de l'attractivité des instruments de dette publique pour les investisseurs. L'identification des caractéristiques distinctives de la politique d'endettement actuelle de l'Ukraine a permis d'évaluer son efficacité et de retracer les relations de cause à effet entre la dette et la sécurité économique. Parmi les principales caractéristiques de la politique d'endettement de l'Ukraine figurent le dépassement des capacités budgétaires, le franchissement des limites de solvabilité dans la planification et l'exécution des emprunts publics, l'augmentation de la part des emprunts extérieurs et des subventions, la mise à l'écart temporaire des seuils de sécurité de la dette scientifiquement justifiés, la restructuration des obligations existantes, ainsi que la recherche d'accords avec les créanciers lorsque les paiements prévus ne peuvent être honorés. L'évaluation de chacun de ces aspects a révélé des menaces pour la sécurité économique, ce qui souligne la nécessité de repenser la politique d'endettement à l'aide des modèles quantitatifs proposés. L'étude a établi que la politique d'endettement de l'Ukraine exerce une influence significative sur la sécurité économique et la stabilité financière. Au cours de la période 2020–2024, l'augmentation des déficits budgétaires et de la dette publique, la dépendance à l'endettement extérieur et les risques de change ont accru la vulnérabilité de l'économie. Une transformation de la politique d'endettement est nécessaire afin de réduire la charge de la dette, d'améliorer l'efficacité de la gestion des emprunts publics et de diminuer la part de la dette libellée en devises étrangères. Les recherches futures devraient se concentrer sur l'amélioration des méthodes d'évaluation des risques d'endettement et sur la modélisation de leur impact sur la sécurité économique. |
| Abstract: | Серед численних чинників, що визначають економічну безпеку України, боргові ризики посідають чільне місце. Кумулятивний характер державного боргу, який супроводжується посиленням негативних проявів, вимагає від уряду рішучих, гнучких і відповідних заходів. Це зумовлює об'єктивну потребу вивчення домінант сучасної боргової політики для виявлення прогалин та обґрунтування напрямів її вдосконалення. Тенденції на глобальних боргових ринках посилюють негативний тренд боргових проблем в Україні. Отже, переосмислення боргової політики в контексті мінімізації негативного впливу на економічну безпеку є актуальним і своєчасним напрямом наукових досліджень. Метою дослідження є оцінка домінантних рис боргової політики в координатах площини забезпечення економічної безпеки України. Основу даного наукового дослідження склала статистична база сформована на основі офіційних даних державних органів України та міжнародних фінансових установ і рейтингових агентств. Використано широкий діапазон загальнонаукових та спеціальних методів наукового пізнання, особливе місце займає метод моделювання, що застосовувався для розробки індикатора боргової безпеки, який враховує макроекономічні, валютні та бюджетні ризики. Результати проведеного дослідження доводять наявність негативних ефектів впливу зростаючої державної заборгованості та супутніх проблем – значного навантаження на державний бюджет, валютних ризиків, посилення боргової залежності та зниження інвестиційної привабливості державних боргових інструментів. Виокремлення особливих ознак сучасної боргової політики України дозволило оцінити її ефективність, прослідкувати причинно-наслідкові зв'язки між боргом та економічною безпекою. Ключовими рисами боргової політики України є вихід за межі фіскальних можливостей, перевищення платоспроможних можливостей під час планування та здійснення державних позик, збільшення частки позик та грантів на зовнішніх ринках, тимчасове ігнорування науково обґрунтованих безпекових меж розміру державного боргу, реструктуризація наявних боргових зобов'язань, намагання знайти порозуміння з кредиторами за неможливості дотримання графіків чергових платежів. Оцінюючи кожен із аспектів, виявлено загрози для економічної безпеки, що обґрунтовує необхідність переосмислення боргової політики з урахуванням запропонованих кількісних моделей. Дослідження встановило, що боргова політика України суттєво впливає на економічну безпеку та фінансову стійкість. У 2020-2024 роках зростання бюджетного дефіциту та державного боргу, залежність від зовнішніх позик і валютні ризики посилили вразливість економіки. Необхідна трансформація боргової політики для зменшення боргового навантаження, підвищення ефективності управління запозиченнями та скорочення валютних боргів. Подальші дослідження слід спрямувати на вдосконалення методів оцінки боргових ризиків і моделювання їх впливу на економічну безпеку. |
| Keywords: | debt management, debt sustainability, economic security, public debt, debt risks, debt policy, боргова політика, боргові ризики, державний борг, економічна безпека, боргова безпека, управління боргом |
| Date: | 2026–03–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05565274 |
| By: | UZ AKDOGAN, Idil; Halicioglu, Ferda |
| Abstract: | This study derives an exchange market pressure (EMP) index using a weighted, scaled sum of variables, including exchange rate depreciation, official foreign exchange intervention, and interest rate differentials, for the period 1999-2023. Using the US dollar as a reference currency, it includes various balance of payments components of the EMP to compare and analyse capital flow pressures for emerging economies such as Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey. The study also analyses the impact of EMP volatility in response to capital inflow and capital outflow controls, utilising EGARCH econometric estimates. Our findings indicate that higher capital controls are generally associated with greater EMP, though the effects differ between inflow and outflow restrictions. We also find that EMP volatility reacts asymmetrically to shocks, with stronger responses to positive developments (‘good news’) than to negative ones (‘bad news’). These results highlight the importance of tailoring capital flow management tools to country-specific vulnerabilities and global financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Exchange Market Pressure, Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange Intervention |
| JEL: | F32 F41 G11 G20 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128311 |
| By: | Chakravorty, Rwit; Arita, Shawn; Steinbach, Sandro |
| Abstract: | In early March 2026, Iranian retaliation against U.S.-led military operations halted commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, driving urea spot prices up 28.2% and farm diesel prices up 34.7% within three weeks. This brief assesses the profitability impact of this dual fertilizer and fuel shock on North Dakota corn, soybean, and wheat producers using updated 2026 NDSU Projected Crop Budgets and a March 2026 producer survey. The shock arrived when corn and wheat margins were already negative at −$27.60/acre and −$33.41/acre, respectively, a substantially weaker starting position than at the onset of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine conflict. Under full exposure, the combined shock adds $31.70/acre for corn, $21.18/acre for wheat, and $5.12/acre for soybeans, with current commodity price responses insufficient to offset these increases on any crop. Corn bears the largest burden through the nitrogen channel; soybeans, though largely insulated from fertilizer costs, face margin erosion through diesel. A producer survey finds that pre-purchase timing partially buffers fertilizer exposure for many operations, but fuel costs remain fully exposed regardless, and more than half of respondents reported outstanding spring fertilizer purchases. Unlike 2022–2023, when commodity prices eventually exceeded rising input costs, the 2026 Hormuz shock combines a weaker margin baseline with a commodity price response that has so far fallen well short of restoring profitability. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:arpcwp:396378 |