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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Amann, Marvin (IfW Kiel, ifo Institute); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Talavera, Oleksandr (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Why is war so economically costly? Our answer is that modern war lowers output not only by destroying productive factors, but also by making the surviving economy work less efficiently. Using uniquely comprehensive firm-level data collected during Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we document a dramatic collapse in allocative productivity in Ukraine. To sharpen identification and explore key mechanisms (including the role of war intensity, internal displacement, reallocation, and macroeconomic instability), we exploit spatial heterogeneity across Ukrainian districts and comparisons with Russian aggression in 2014 and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Our key policy implication is that restoring allocative efficiency--and preparing institutional arrangements that facilitate rapid reallocation in times of stress--is critical for sustaining economic capacity, defense, and national security. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomics, defense, misallocation, productivity, war, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F51 F52 D24 H56 D61 O47 O52 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18895 |
| By: | Rombach, Philipp |
| Abstract: | The United States has accused China of conducting secret nuclear weapons tests in violation of international norms and testing moratoria. Because of its comparatively limited historical testing record, China has strong incentives to obtain additional test data for the modernization of its nuclear weapons programme. Thus, it would be disadvantageous for Washington to respond by resuming underground nuclear testing, as Russia and China would benefit more from the erosion of international testing norms. For their part, Germany and Europe can take only limited action by promoting greater transparency and confidence-building measures. |
| Keywords: | China, Russia, United States, nuclear test, nuclear weapon, Threshold Test Ban Treaty (TTBT), Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), One-Point Safety, National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), NNSA Stockpile Stewardship and Management Program |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:343134 |
| By: | Horovitz, Liviu; Schneider, Jonas |
| Abstract: | The 2026 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held in New York in April-May. It was a failure because the delegations had been unable to agree on a final document. This was the third consecutive Review Conference to end without consensus - something that had never happened before in the 56-year history of the NPT. Ahead of the conference, some diplomats and experts had warned that another failure would be catastrophic not just for the treaty but for the entire nuclear order. That is the wrong conclusion to draw. The record of previous Review Conferences, what happened at this year's meeting and the responses to its outcome all suggest that the NPT - the cornerstone of the nuclear order and an essential pillar of the broader international order - remains resilient. The growing nuclear inequality inherent in the NPT's division of states parties into five nuclear-weapon states and 186 non-nuclear-weapon states polarises the multilateral nuclear debate in New York, Geneva and Vienna but does not threaten the treaty's survival. The NPT would be at risk, however, if Russian and Chinese revisionism were to intensify further and US willingness to exercise leadership continued to wane. |
| Keywords: | Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), 2026 Review Conference, nuclear-weapon states, nuclear order, Do Hung Viet, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), war against Iran, war against Ukraine |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:343140 |
| By: | Mihaela Daciana Natea (UMFST - George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Targu Mures); Maria Costea (Romanian Academy); Simion Costea (UMFST - George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Targu Mures, GGI - GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTE BRUSSELS) |
| Abstract: | 23/2025 L'Europe unie / United Europe : EU and its Neighbours amid AI Transformation and Multi-Level Geopolitical Pressures. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.17969062 This volume of L'Europe Unie / United Europe (Paris) offers a comprehensive and interdisciplinary examination of the European Union's evolving policy landscape at the intersection of digital transformation, security challenges, and geopolitical instability. Structured around four thematic sections, the issue explores how the European Union responds to the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence, emerging technologies, and hybrid threats, while simultaneously addressing long-standing questions related to democratic resilience, legal frameworks, and neighbourhood policy. The first section analyses the implications of artificial intelligence and digital innovation for European governance, focusing on trust-building in digital environments, the regulation of deepfakes and disinformation, and the ethical and legal challenges associated with emerging technologies such as brain-computer interfaces and biohacking. These contributions highlight the tension between technological advancement and the protection of fundamental rights, emphasising the need for coherent EU-level regulatory responses. The second section addresses the transformation of EU digital governance, with particular attention to data protection, financial regulation, and the socio-economic implications of fintech development. By examining the application of GDPR principles and the role of financial education and inclusion, the authors demonstrate how European regulatory frameworks are being adapted to new economic realities shaped by digitalisation. The third section situates contemporary European challenges within a broader historical and geopolitical context, focusing on democratic vulnerability and the long-term patterns of Russian power projection. Through analyses of electoral interference, the legacy of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and archival insights into Soviet and post-Soviet strategies, this section underscores the structural fragility of European security arrangements and the persistence of geopolitical contestation in Eastern Europe. The fourth section expands the analytical scope to the European Neighbourhood and Mediterranean regions, exploring the socio-political and economic dynamics of Tunisia in the context of migration, revolution, and entrepreneurship. These contributions emphasise the importance of regional partnerships and the need for nuanced policy approaches that account for local specificities and historical trajectories. The volume concludes with a set of strategic reflections on the European Union's capacity to navigate an increasingly complex international environment characterised by technological disruption, hybrid threats, and multi-level geopolitical pressures. Overall, the issue contributes to ongoing scholarly and policy debates on the future of European integration, highlighting the necessity of combining regulatory innovation, historical awareness, and geopolitical realism. |
| Keywords: | gaming, artificial intelligence, ECONOMICS, MANAGEMENT, PUBLIC MANAGEMENT, ECONOMIC POLICIES, FINANCEMENT, BUDGET, LAW / International, LAW AND ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, European communities, European commission, European People, European union, European standard, European Union, European parliament, European Union/history, Internal european market, European People/education, European People/history, Eastern European People, Contemporary history, History, 20th Century, Law, International Law, Criminal Law, International law, Regional law, Public law, Law Enforcement, Comparative law, Artificial intelligence, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR, International relations, International watercourse, International convention, International transaction, International politics, International safety, International standardisation, International Agencies, International Cooperation, International assistance, International balance, International conflict, International agreement, International competitiveness, International distribution, International harmonisation, Political sciences, Political policies, Political counselling, Political party, Political power, Political philosophy, Political communication, Political violence, Political economy, Political doctrine, Political ecology, Political transitions, Political Activism, Political Systems, Political geography, Political organisation, Political ideology, Political Activism/trends, Political Systems/classification, Political Systems/economics, Economy, Circular economy, National economy, Green economy, Sustainable economy, Market economy, Resource-efficient economy, Economic Factors, Economic competition, Economic incentive, Economic structure, Human Migration, Internal migration, Human migration, Emigration and Immigration, Islam, Islam/psychology, Islam/history, History of islam, Islamic schools, Africa, North africa, African People, Arab World, Arab World/history, Arabs, Arabs/history, Arabs/legislation &, amp, jurisprudence, Europe, Eastern europe, Western europe, Technology, Digital Technology, Technology Transfer, Biomedical Technology, Indigenous technology, Process technology, Information Technology, Disruptive Technology, Technology Addiction, Technology/classification, Hispanic or Latino, Hispanic or Latino/classification, Hispanic or Latino/education, Hispanic or Latino/history, Hispanic or Latino/legislation &, South america, North america, Americas, Central america, Central American People, South American People, Colombia, Austria, Estonia, Russia, Romania, Tunisia, Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous knowledge, Indigenous Peoples/psychology, Indigenous Peoples/history, Indigenous Peoples/classification, Indigenous Peoples/education, War, War victim, War Exposure, War Crimes, Crimean War, Peace, Hybrid War, EU, Eu council, Human Rights, Human Experimentation, Human biology, Human health, Human physiology, Human body, Human rights, Human Genetics, Human Body, Rights, Civil Rights, Patient Rights, Women's Rights, Economic rights, Regional human rights, Human Rights/history, Human Rights/classification, Women's Rights/classification, United Nations, United Nations/standards, United Nations/ethics, United Nations/history, United Nations/trends, National Socialism, Bibliography, National, France |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05586767 |
| By: | Rim Berahab; Sabrine Emran |
| Abstract: | The global energy system has entered a period of acute structural stress following the strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran in late February 2026, and the subsequent disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency, the resulting shock marks the most severe disruption to global energy markets since the 1970s oil crises, with systemic characteristics comparable to the combined effects of those crises and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy shock. This policy paper examines the mechanics of the oil-price shock, then assesses the structural importance of the Strait of Hormuz as a global energy chokepoint, through which an estimated 17.8 million barrels per day of crude oil and LNG transited before the Iran conflict. It highlights the limited substitutability of existing bypass infrastructure under conditions of sustained disruption. It also evaluates the fragmentation of the OPEC+ framework, including the United Arab Emirates’s announced withdrawal from the alliance on May 1, 2026, marking a critical point in the erosion of coordinated production management among major Gulf exporters. Finally, it analyses the role of renewable energy as a structural variable in the crisis, not as a short-term buffer, but as an accelerating force reshaping the geopolitical foundations of energy security. The Hormuz disruption should therefore be understood not only as a price shock, but as a systemic stress test of global energy governance, exposing deep structural fragilities and accelerating realignments across markets, alliances, and the energy transition. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb29_26 |
| By: | David Zehner |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the economic consequences of targeted Western sanctions on Belarus following the 2020 post-election crackdown. This study analyses aggregate exports alongside a specific focus on potash, a vital state revenue engine where Belarus commands 20% of global production, making it a sensitive global commodity. Utilising a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and complemented by Synthetic Control Methods (SCM), the study evaluates bilateral trade flows from 2015 to 2021. The results reveal a structural asymmetry, where the initial economic shock caused a 48.5% contraction in Belarus’s aggregate exports relative to a post-Soviet control group, and potash exports remained insulated, yielding an insignificant coefficient of 0.000 relative to global peers. This divergence suggests that while comprehensive measures disrupted aggregate trade, targeted sectoral sanctions faced enforcement limits. This study contributes to literature on sanction circumvention in integrated regional markets. |
| Keywords: | sanction effectiveness, trade circumvention, Belarus, potash sector, Difference-in-Differences |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtk:febawb:152 |
| By: | Yang Yang; Sambit Bhattacharyya; Chirantan Chatterjee; Jiao Wang |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of Russia-China gas pipeline news shock on energy importer China. We demonstrate that the shock triggers an expectation induced current price increase likely through increased demand in gas futures contract. Using panel data covering 31 provinces, 19 industries, and 4, 603 households over the period 2010 to 2022, we find that the shock reduces income and consumption. At the province-year level, consumption falls more than income. At the industry-year-province level, the shock reduces wages overall. However, the effect appears to be heterogeneous across industries subject to their operational scale. At the household level, the effect of the shock is negative on income and statistically insignificant on consumption. However, the insignificant consumption effect is heterogeneous by income quantiles, with lower income households reducing consumption more sharply. The results appear robust to price-intensity treatment, placebo tests, and matching estimators. |
| Keywords: | energy news shocks, income, consumption, China |
| JEL: | D72 O11 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2026-74 |