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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Natalie Ayers (Harvard University); Christopher Blair (Princeton University); Joseph Ruggiero (University of Virginia); Austin Wright (University of Chicago); Konstantin Sonin (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | When leaders face threats to their authority, escalating foreign conflict can help divert public attention away from domestic grievances. We develop a formal microfoundation for diversionary escalation rooted in a theory of regime change. Although the idea of diversionary escalation is classic, systematic quantitative evidence has been challenging to obtain. Using a new data set of 1.8 million conflict incidents, obtained from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s (OSCE) Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine in 2015–2022, we find evidence that the Russian government strategically employed proxy-initiated separatist violence in Eastern Ukraine to divert attention from domestic unrest and opposition-led protest. We also find a positive link between opposition protest and inflammatory anti-Ukrainian coverage in the Russian media, complementary to battlefield escalation. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-21 |
| By: | Gilev, Aleksei; Valastro, Tommaso; Vyrskaia, Marina; Zavadskaya, Margarita (Finnish Institute of International Affairs) |
| Abstract: | This report presents findings from the fifth wave of the PROPA online survey, conducted between 10 and 27 October 2025 among Russian citizens aged 18 and older (N = 2, 676). The survey examines economic perceptions, political attitudes, views on the war in Ukraine, experiences with crime, social networks, and media consumption. Key findings • Economic perceptions remain stable but pessimistic. Across waves, respondents’ self-assessments of their personal economic situation show little change, and average satisfaction remains low. Concern about rising prices remains consistently high across social groups. • Attitudes toward the war in Ukraine remain polarized, and support coexists with negotiation preferences.Nearly half of respondents express support for the war, while a comparable share favors initiating peace negotiations. Notably, a substantial minority of those who declare support for the war also support starting negotiations. • Personal exposure to the war is widespread and politically consequential. Many respondents report personal connections to the war through participation or losses among close contacts. Such exposure is strongly associated with both support for continued military action and expectations about the war’s duration. • Fraud is the most common crime reported, trust in law enforcement remains moderate. Most respondents report no direct experience of crime in recent years. Among those who have, fraud is the most common form of crime. However, reporting varies by age, gender, region. Willingness to seek police assistance depends strongly on prior experience with law enforcement. • Media consumption continues to shift toward Telegram amid declining trust in news. Reliance on several traditional and online news sources has declined, while Telegram has continued to grow as a key source of political information. Across platforms, respondents report declining trust in news and political information. Taken together, the results of Wave 5 portray a society characterized by persistent economic anxiety, polarized war-related attitudes, evolving information habits, and complex patterns of vulnerability and social interaction. |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:jkvhb_v1 |
| By: | Corneo, Giacomo |
| Abstract: | NATO enlargement and Russian annexation of Crimea marked crucial turning points. According to one narrative, the Russian occupation was part of a plan to re-establish dominion over Eastern Europe. According to a rival view, it was an attempt to counter a U.S. plan to subjugate Russia. I scrutinize the logical requirements of those narratives in a multi-stage game of incomplete information that produces equilibrium play such that first NATO is enlarged and then Russia attacks Ukraine. The two competing narratives correspond to two different separating equilibria. Conditions for their existence inform about the consistency and plausibility of the associated narratives. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine war, NATO enlargement, incomplete information |
| JEL: | H8 N4 Z1 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:337470 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | In response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the European Union has accelerated efforts to diversify its energy supply and reduce structural dependence on Russian gas. Within this strategy, Azerbaijan has emerged as a significant alternative supplier through the Southern Gas Corridor and the 2022 EU-Azerbaijan Memorandum of Understanding, which sets a target of increasing gas exports to 20 bcm annually by 2027. Azerbaijani pipeline gas deliveries to the EU rose from 8.2 bcm in 2021 to 12.8 bcm in 2025, elevating Azerbaijan to the position of the EU's fifth-largest external pipeline supplier. This expansion of energy cooperation has coincided with a pronounced deterioration in Azerbaijan's human rights environment. Since mid-2022, the number of political prisoners has increased substantially, while European institutions-including the European Parliament, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, and the European Court of Human Rights-have documented persistent violations of fundamental freedoms. The article examines the structural tension between the EU's energy security imperatives and its normative commitments to democracy, rule of law, and human rights. It advances the concept of an "authoritarian trade-off, " whereby strategic diversification objectives may inadvertently reinforce authoritarian governance in supplier states. The analysis argues that the absence of enforceable conditionality in EU-Azerbaijan energy agreements risks undermining the Union's normative credibility. It concludes that embedding transparency requirements, governance reforms, and human rights conditionality into future energy frameworks is essential for aligning the EU's strategic interests with its foundational values. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Azerbaijan, energy security, energy diversification, Southern Gas Corridor, pipeline gas, foreign policy, authoritarian governance, political repression, petrostate dynamics, human rights conditionality, transparency, rule of law, geopolitical energy strategy |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esrepo:337500 |
| By: | Gert Peersman |
| Abstract: | This paper employs a joint SVAR-IV model for the United States and the euro area to estimate the pass-through of energy and food commodity cost shocks to inflation. Exogenous commodity cost shocks — such as those triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine — had only a modest impact on inflation during the post-pandemic period. However, counterfactual analyses based on the pass-through estimates indicate that overall commodity cost fluctuations — including their endogenous responses to macroeconomic conditions — can almost fully account for the rise and subsequent decline of energy, food, and core CPI inflation over this period. These findings highlight that commodity costs constitute a key transmission channel through which macroeconomic developments affect inflation. Estimates of a standard Phillips Curve specification, including its slope, are shown to be severely biased when this channel is ignored. |
| Keywords: | commodity costs, post-pandemic inflation, Phillips curve |
| JEL: | E31 Q11 Q43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12415 |
| By: | Ariyo, Omotola |
| Abstract: | This essay examines R (Elliott Associates, Elliott International, and Jane Street Global Trading) v. The London Metal Exchange and LME Clear [2023] EWHC 2969 (Admin). The case arose from the London Metal Exchange's decision to cancel $12 billion worth of nickel futures trades amidst extreme price volatility following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The essay discusses how the court approached the definition of an ‘orderly market’ and the human rights challenge under Article 1 of the First Protocol to the European Convention on Human Rights. Through comparative analysis with R (SRM Global and others) v. Her Majesty's Treasury [2009] EWHC 227 (Admin), the article discusses the claim of legitimate expectations in public law which arose in both cases. The essay (1) highlights the consistent theme of judicial deference to regulatory discretion during crises and (2) analyses the prospect of claims in human rights and legitimate expectations in financial markets involving sophisticated participants. |
| Keywords: | exchange-traded derivatives; human rights; legitimate expectations; judicial review |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2026–02–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:127527 |
| By: | Anastasia, Giacomo (Columbia University); Boeri, Tito (Bocconi University); Zholud, Oleksandr (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use these data to document one of the largest labor supply and reallocation shocks in recent history and to estimate the impact on job matching, showing how labor markets adapt under extreme stress. The labor force shrank by about one fourth, yet vacancy filling rates and matching efficiency declined modestly. Only along the frontline and in occupied regions there is evidence of labor market shutdowns. Wage flexibility, adaptability of recruitment policies of firms, and remote working help explain the resiliency of labor outcomes. Recovering longer-term human capital losses suffered by Ukraine will require a mix of tools going well beyond labor policies and should be a priority for the reconstruction phase. |
| Keywords: | labor supply shock, reallocation, vacancy filling rate, wartime economy |
| JEL: | J22 J23 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18363 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad; Askerov, Ali |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the political economy of Azerbaijan-Russia relations during the deterioration of bilateral political relations in 2024-2025. It argues that the 2024-2025 conflict exposed the fragility of bilateral political relations and demonstrated how political tensions increasingly spill over into economic, societal, and cultural domains. Despite growing political tensions, Russia has continued, until recently, to serve as the principal anchor of integration for Azerbaijan's non-oil economy. An examination of macroeconomic indicators for 2017-2024 shows that the Russian Federation remains the largest destination for Azerbaijan's non-oil exports, its leading import partner, the primary source of formal remittance inflows from Azerbaijani labor migrants, and the largest source of inbound tourism. In this context, the article assesses the extent to which escalating political frictions since late 2024 have begun to affect economic relations, focusing on foreign trade, remittances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and tourism. It further evaluates the potential implications of these developments for Azerbaijan's economic stability, diversification strategy, and evolving geopolitical orientation. Beyond economic ties, the study also considers the consequences of the post-December 2024 escalation for security cooperation and humanitarian, scientific-technical, and cultural exchanges. The findings suggest that sustained political deterioration may gradually constrain bilateral economic interdependence, while simultaneously pushing Azerbaijan toward a cautious recalibration of its strategic alignments within an increasingly fragmented regional order. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Russia, Political Economy, Tourism, Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Non-Oil Exports, Finance, Logistic, Regional Integration, Political Relations, Security |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:337505 |
| By: | Woo, Hyeyoung |
| Abstract: | Central Asia has emerged as a key region where the convergence of geopolitics and development cooperation is most visible. Major powers are redefining their approaches: Japan combines official development assistance (ODA) with commercial partnerships to advance connectivity and reform; the EU is emphasising a sustainable infrastructure and governance-oriented approach; the US is expected to catalyse private investment rather than direct aid; China deepens its regional presence through the Belt and Road Initiative; while Russia leverages historical and security ties to maintain influence. Meanwhile, middle powers - countries that do not wield vast influence like major powers but possess substantial capacity to shape international events - are exploring new opportunities for engagement. Türkiye positions itself as a bridge between advanced economies and the Global South, emphasising connectivity and energy cooperation through the Middle Corridor and the Organization of Turkic States. South Korea's 2025 ODA Strategy for Central Asia identifies the region as a strategic partner for shared growth, integrating pragmatic diplomacy with value-based cooperation. By leveraging their soft power and policy experience, these middle powers offer a distinctive model for development partnership. Central Asian governments are responding to a changing international environment by diversifying partnerships through regional integration and more strategic engagement with development partners. |
| Keywords: | development cooperation, geopolitics, Central Asia, middle power, Korea, Türkiye |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:diedps:337448 |
| By: | Milanovic, Branko; Ranaldi, Marco |
| Abstract: | Global capital income inequality has declined in the 21st century, with the Gini coefficient falling from 97% to 94%. Over the same period, the share of the world population with annual capital income above $100 increased from 12% to 27%. This implies more than a doubling of the number of individuals earning positive income from interest, dividends, rents, and privately-funded pensions. Most Western nations have lost positions in the global capital income ranking, in contrast to several developing countries, particularly China and Russia. When adjusting for missing capital income in surveys using national accounts, while the levels of inequality slightly vary across adjustment methods, the results consistently confirm a decreasing inequality trend. This is also confirmed when the capitalized wealth of billionaires is included in the analysis using Forbes lists. Overall, this paper provides new global evidence on the evolution, distribution, and measurement of capital income, and highlights its implications for inequality analysis in contemporary capitalism. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper) |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:swf8y_v1 |
| By: | Bobojonov, Ihtiyor; Kuhn, Lena; Eltazarov, Sarvarbek; Glauben, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The insurance market in Uzbekistan is characterized by its heavy focus of risk management on strategic crops like cotton and wheat and the very close coupling of insurance with agricultural loans. The majority of farmers who received a subsidized production credit from the agricultural bank Uzagrobank are insuring their crops to become eligible for the said credits, which are mainly provided by the state agricultural insurance company Uzagrosugurta. While the importance of this credit-bundled insurance product is undisputed, this close loan bundling has led to a condition where, to date, most Uzbek farmers perceive the insurance product only as a condition for credit access rather than accepting it as a risk management strategy. Several policy reforms (e.g. presidential decrees and development strategies) aimed at improving the functionality of the insurance product beyond its credit collateral function and making it suitable to manage climate and irrigation risks. However, most of these reforms to date require large-scale transformations and come with high implementation cost and risk. In the scope of this policy brief, we provide policy recommendations towards a sustainable implementation of efficient financial climate-risk management in Uzbek agriculture based on several years of research and implementing activities of IAMO in Central Asia. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamopb:337497 |
| By: | Avetisyan, Artur |
| Abstract: | Energy-sector challenges have shaped international relations since early history, making energy a key component of geopolitics. Understanding current global and regional energy and economic trends is therefore essential. Armenia, like many European Union countries, faces significant challenges in ensuring energy and economic security. Given its geographic position and self-sufficiency in electricity generation, alongside its growing export potential, Armenia can play an important role in regional energy security and stability. The country also has strong potential in renewable energy and is a regional leader in new renewables, though this potential has not yet been fully realized. Unsettled relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, as well as infrastructure constraints with Georgia and Iran, limit Armenia's opportunities. Nevertheless, improving ties with European and Asian partners enhance Armenia's strategic role along the North-South axis. This article examines new development trends, reassesses challenges and opportunities, and evaluates Armenia's potential to act as a regional bridge for energy and economic cooperation. |
| Keywords: | Energy security, sustainability, mutually beneficial cooperation, South Caucasus, critical infrastructures, the North-South International Project, the Black Sea Electricity Cable project |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:337459 |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana; Oluwadare O. Ojo; Modupe I. Omotosho |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates persistence in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) stock markets applying fractional integration methods to daily data from 1 January 2022 to 31 October 2025. Different model specifications are estimated for prices, log prices and log returns under the assumption of white noise and autocorrelated errors respectively. Mean reversion is found in most cases for prices with autocorrelated errors, which implies that shocks have only temporary effects in this case. Turkey displays the lowest degrees of integration, while Nigeria has the highest for both prices and log-prices. Structural breaks are found in the case of stock prices in all countries, with market inefficiencies appearing to be present in the most recent period characterized by geopolitical uncertainty resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. |
| Keywords: | persistence, fractional integration, MINT, stock markets |
| JEL: | C22 G12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12406 |
| By: | Djanibekov, Nodir; Kurbanov, Zafar; Tadjiev, Abdusame; Dhehibi, Boubaker; Akramkhanov, Akmal |
| Abstract: | Agricultural sector in Uzbekistan is undergoing rapid modernization driven by institutional reforms and mounting pressure to ensure sustainable land and water resource use. This study investigates the adoption and impacts of four sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) promoted for sustainable intensification: crop rotation, manure application, drip irrigation, and laser levelling. Using nationally representative survey data from 1, 225 farms across four major regions (Andijan, Kashkadarya, Khorezm, and Samarkand) collected in 2024, we employ a multivariate probit model to analyze complex, inter-dependent adoption decisions and their determinants. Subsequently, we apply treatment-effects models to assess the impact of individual practices and selected bundles on three critical outcomes: farm revenue, an agronomic sustainability index, and the gender wage gap among seasonal workers. Our analysis reveals that SAP adoption patterns are highly practice-specific. Crucially, perceived profitability, benefits and challenges are strong predictors of uptake, while standard structural variables (education, farm size, and extension contact) are inconsistent determinants across practices. Modern technologies are more strongly linked to institutional arrangements, farm structure, and training than are traditional practices. Results on impact are nuanced: no single technology improves all three outcomes simultaneously. Drip irrigation emerges as the most promising individual practice, significantly raising both revenue and sustainability. In contrast, laser levelling shows no clear average economic gains. Importantly, SAP bundles consistently outperform single practices on sustainability and sometimes on revenue. Social impacts are mixed: crop rotation tends to widen, while the joint adoption of laser levelling and drip irrigation narrows, the gender wage gap. Overall, the findings underscore the necessity of practice-specific and portfolio-based policy support for sustainable agriculture in reforming transition economies. |
| Keywords: | Technology adoption, Irrigated farming systems, Multivariate probit, Treatment effects analysis |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:337498 |