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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Leonard Gregor; Justus Haucap |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 on refinery margins, i.e. the difference between wholesale prices for road fuels (gasoline and diesel) and oil prices in Europe and Germany in particular. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, wholesale road fuel prices net of taxes rose by more than 50 cents per liter, whereas crude oil prices increased by only about 30 cents per liter. Using a difference-in-differences framework, we compare refinery margins in Germany with those on the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) spot market, which serves as a European benchmark price. The results indicate that refinery margins in Germany increased by approximately 5–6 cents per liter relative to the ARA region after the invasion. We attribute this differential primarily to Germany’s strong dependence on Russian Ural crude oil imports and to the presence of regional market power among German refineries. We further document substantial heterogeneity in treatment effects across both time and regions. In addition, the invasion was associated with a significant decline in fuel demand, with gasoline consumption falling by about 13% and diesel consumption by approximately 9%. |
| Keywords: | event study, Ukraine crisis, fuel prices, wholesale markets |
| JEL: | C33 G14 H56 L13 L71 Q41 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12553 |
| By: | Joop Age Harm Adema; Cevat Giray Aksoy; Yvonne Giesing; Panu Poutvaara; Yunus Aksoy |
| Abstract: | Despite rising refugee numbers worldwide, refugees’ return decisions remain poorly understood. Prior work examines either intentions or realized return, but not both. We fielded a ten-wave panel of Ukrainian refugees, linking prewar home municipalities to geocoded conflict and territorial control data and eliciting war expectations. Intentions strongly predict behavior: by 2025, 42% of those planning to return soon in 2022 had returned, versus 1% of those planning to settle abroad. Increasing conflict in the home municipality reduces return there but barely affects return to Ukraine overall. More pessimistic war expectations explain 21% of the decline in return intentions. |
| Keywords: | refugees, return migration, conflict, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12550 |
| By: | Dario Caldara; Matteo Iacoviello; Mike McHenry; Immo Schott |
| Abstract: | We study the investment effects of the Russia-Ukraine war using a novel, text-based measure of firm-level exposure derived from earnings call transcripts. Combining this measure with financial statement data for over 6, 500 firms across 50 countries, we show that exposure to the conflict led to sizable and persistent declines in corporate investment. Firms that discussed the war in early 2022 invested significantly less than otherwise similar firms. The results hold across multiple empirical strategies and highlight the role of geopolitical risk in shaping firm behavior during global crises. |
| Keywords: | Business fluctuations and cycles; Economic uncertainty; Corporate finance and governance; Investment |
| JEL: | C55 E22 E32 |
| Date: | 2026–03–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:102900 |
| By: | Hannes Swoboda |
| Abstract: | A credible EU enlargement policy remains necessary from a geopolitical perspective, but can only succeed through a more pragmatic and gradual integration approach. New members amplify the existing challenges to EU decision making, rule-of-law conditionality and political cohesion, particularly given the circumstances of Russian aggression, hybrid threats and rising nationalist and far-right forces within the Union. Against this backdrop, the highly heterogeneous situations of the Western Balkan states, Ukraine, Moldova and other candidate countries, the unresolved bilateral conflicts, domestic polarisation and relative poverty all shape public scepticism in current member states. This paper rejects ‘buffer-zone’ concepts as a form of capitulation, and instead advocates stepwise integration into the single market, Schengen and selected policies, tied to verifiable reforms, reversible conditionality, and strengthened financial and political support. Such a model would allow differentiated, reversible accession pathways, while giving the EU time to reform its own institutions and decision-making rules, ensuring that enlargement reinforces, rather than undermines, the Union’s capacity to act and its foundational values. |
| Keywords: | EU enlargement, Western Balkans, Gradual integration, Rule of law and conditionality, Russian aggression and hybrid threats |
| JEL: | F15 F55 O52 P48 K33 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:106 |
| By: | Olena Havrylchyk (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Central Securities Depositories (CSDs) form the backbone of financial market infrastructure by registering securities, settling trades, distributing cash flows, and managing collateral. While often regarded as mere financial "plumbing, " they in fact underpin strategic objectives such as advancing the Savings and Investment Union, curbing tax evasion, and reinforcing Europe's geopolitical stance. The academic and policy debate on CSDs is fragmented across three strands of literature that rarely intersect. From a regulatory perspective, concerns focus on the persistent fragmentation of the EU CSD market. From a political economy perspective, omnibus accounts and opaque custody chains are criticized for facilitating tax evasion. From a geopolitical perspective, Euroclear – the EU's largest International CSD – has been thrust into the spotlight for its central role in immobilizing and freezing Russian assets after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. This Paper brings these three strands of literature together to identify and analyze the key challenges facing European policymakers. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-05406605 |
| By: | Tadashi ITO; Kiyoyasu TANAKA |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the EU’s 2022 embargo on Russian crude and refined oil unintentionally encouraged “oil laundering” through third‑country refiners. After the ban, Russian crude prices fell, creating strong incentives for countries such as China, India, Turkey, Singapore, and the UAE to purchase discounted Russian oil, refine it, and legally re‑export the resulting petroleum products to the EU. Using a gravity‑model framework and event‑study analysis, we show sharp and synchronized shifts in trade flows: Russian crude exports to laundromat countries surged dramatically after 2022, while EU imports of refined products from these same countries rose significantly in 2023 and 2024. These patterns suggest that Russian oil entered the EU indirectly through third‑country refining. China and India appear to be the primary intermediaries. In contrast, other sanctioning countries such as the U.S., Canada, Australia, and Japan show no similar increase, and EU members exempt from the embargo also display no laundering‑related import changes. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:26024 |
| By: | Букенов Амантай // Bukenov Аmantay (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В данной работе оценивается влияние государственных расходов на экономическую активность Казахстана. Государственные расходы разделены на текущие и капитальные с целью выявления различий в их макроэкономическом воздействии. Для идентификации фискальных шоков применяется метод Бланшара-Перотти (2002) в рамках структурной VAR-модели, после чего импульсные отклики оцениваются с использованием метода локальных проекций. На основе полученных значений рассчитываются кумулятивные фискальные мультипликаторы. Результаты показывают, что текущие расходы оказывают более быстрый, но ограниченный эффект на выпуск, тогда как капитальные расходы формируют более высокий мультипликативный эффект, достигающий максимума в среднесрочной перспективе. Выводы исследования подчёркивают целесообразность смещения фискальной политики в сторону увеличения доли капитальных расходов как ключевого инструмента долгосрочного экономического роста в условиях сырьевой экономики. // This paper evaluates the impact of government spending on Kazakhstan's economic activity. Government expenditures are divided into current and capital expenditures in order to identify differences in their macroeconomic impact. To identify fiscal shocks, the Blanchard-Perotti (2002) method is used within the framework of the structural VAR model, after which the impulse responses are estimated using the local projection method. Cumulative fiscal multipliers are calculated based on the values obtained. The results show that current expenditures have a faster but limited effect on output, while capital expenditures generate a higher multiplier effect, reaching a maximum in the medium term. The conclusions of the study emphasize the expediency of shifting fiscal policy towards increasing the share of capital expenditures as a key tool for long-term economic growth in a commodity-based economy. |
| Keywords: | фискальная политика, фискальный мультипликатор, текущие государственные расходы, капитальные государственные расходы, экономический рост, Казахстан, fiscal policy, fiscal multiplier, current government expenditures, capital government expenditures, economic growth, Kazakhstan |
| JEL: | C32 E62 H50 O40 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:71 |
| By: | Lorenz Emter; Laura Kuitunen; Arnaud Mehl; Peter McQuade; Swapan-Kumar Pradhan; Goetz von Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper examines asymmetries in the effects of geopolitical events on international bank credit, contrasting adverse events, such as the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, with positive events like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Using confidential data from the BIS International Banking Statistics from 1977 to 2024, we analyze credit dynamics between up to 12, 000 pairs of countries through the lens of their geopolitical differences. Our findings reveal that such differences impact international banking activity over time. Negative events reduce credit by 10-20% more between geopolitical blocs than they do within blocs. In contrast, positive events have no comparable effect on credit, even when boosting trade flows. We hypothesize that this asymmetry stems from the higher level of trust required for international bank credit compared to trade in goods, as the former involves a more pronounced intertemporal dimension, demanding a greater degree of commitment over time. |
| Keywords: | geoeconomics, geopolitics, international finance, global banking, residence, nationality, asymmetric effects, trust |
| JEL: | F2 F3 D74 H56 N40 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1338 |
| By: | Márta Bisztray (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); Gábor Békés (CEU; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; CEPR); Alexandros Charos (WIFO); Klaus Friesenbichler (WIFO; ASCII); Miklós Koren (CEU; ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; CEPR; CESifo); Agnes Kügler (WIFO; ASCII); Balázs Lengyel (ELTE Centre for Economic and Regional Studies; Corvinus University Budapest); Amanda De Pirro (USI); Birgit Meyer (WIFO; ASCII) |
| Abstract: | Recent events have posed considerable challenges to supply chain, as demonstrated by trade data. Yet, firm-level information on the recent challenges remains scarce. The Supply Chain Disruption Survey addresses this gap by generating insights into firms’ experiences and expectations regarding their supplier relationships, with a special focus on the role of intangibles and changes over time. Conducted as part of the RETHINK-GSC Horizon research project, the survey was carried out in Austria, Denmark, Germany, and Hungary between mid-2023 and spring 2024. The survey focused on medium-sized and large firms operating in various manufacturing industries. This paper has two main objectives: first, it provides information about the survey's background, design, questionnaire, and implementation; and second, it presents the key patterns visible in the survey. The results indicate that sourcing remains anchored in Europe but is diversified. Experiencing disruption was nearly universal between 2020 and 2023, mostly due to COVID-19, but also due to the war in Ukraine and trade policy changes. Despite the perception of the disruptions being of temporary nature, the anticipation of risk increased. Firms adopted different risk mitigation strategies, including diversifying their supplier portfolio and information sharing with suppliers. |
| Keywords: | survey, questionnaire, supply chain, empirical research |
| JEL: | F14 D22 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2517 |
| By: | Sergio Leo Vargas Aranda (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay, LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec - Université Paris-Saclay); Erica Ramirez (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay); Bertrand Charmaison (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay); Maxence Cordiez (Université Paris-Saclay); Emma Moulan (TECH ECO (ex-ITESE) - Institut Technico-Economie - CEA-DES (ex-DEN) - CEA-Direction des Energies (ex-Direction de l'Energie Nucléaire) - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | The European power system plays a strategic role in reducing dependence on fossil fuels while contributing to reaching Europe's CO2 emissions targets. The energy crisis triggered by Russia's war against Ukraine has revived interest in the role of nuclear energy in the European power system. We examine how postponing nuclear phaseout affects optimal dispatch and environmental performance of the interconnected European power system. We use ESMOD, a unit commitment model of the European electric system at the 2030 horizon, built with Antares Simulator, to assess the impact of nuclear phase-out policies in Germany and Belgium. The model accounts for 36 European countries and focuses on cross-border effects and country-level impacts. The model shows that not decommissioning 4 GW of nuclear capacity in these two countries would have reduced European CO2 emissions by 16 million tons in 2030. Strikingly, about 45% of such reductions would have occurred in other European countries and keeping nuclear power plants in operation would have increased the total European surplus by 3 billion euros heterogeneously affecting across countries. To interpret these heterogeneous effects, we analysed the load size, power mix, trader status and interconnections to explain cross-border sensitivities. Finally, we assessed the countries' sensitivity to weather variation across 34 climate years by classifying them using the Kmeans clustering method. The results underscore the central role of European energy policy coordination in shaping future energy strategies that prioritize climate goals and efficient system integration while challenging the economic efficiency and environmental effectiveness of solely national plans. |
| Keywords: | European coordination, Cross-border effects, Energy Policy, Power system modelling, Nuclear energy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05548319 |
| By: | Matthias Neuenkirch; Mohamad El-Ghazi; Alina Hoffmann; Scarlett Jansen; Thomas Seidel; Manuel Walz |
| Abstract: | Geldwäsche ist ein transnationales Phänomen. Inkriminierte Vermögenswerte werden über Grenzen hinweg verschoben – gerade im Bereich organisierter Kriminalität gelangen die in einem Staat erzielten Erträge aus kriminellen Aktivitäten regelmäßig ins Ausland, um sie dem Zugriff der nationalen Strafverfolgungsbehörden zu entziehen. Die vorliegende Studie widmet sich erstmals systematisch der transnationalen Dimension von Geldwäscheströmen aus und nach Deutschland. Als Datengrundlage dienen Statistiken zu Verdachtsmeldungen der Financial Intelligence Unit Deutschland aus den Jahren 2020–2024. Eingeflossen sind dabei nur solche Verdachtsmeldungen, die aufgrund ihrer Validität an die Strafverfolgungsbehörden weitergeleitet wurden. Die Analyse der Daten zeigt, dass das Volumen von verdächtigen Transaktionen nach Deutschland deutlich höher ist als das Volumen von verdächtigen Transaktionen, die aus Deutschland ins Ausland fließen. Die Daten stützen somit die Annahme, dass Deutschland als stabiler und reputationsstarker Finanzstandort ein "sicherer Hafen" und damit ein attraktives Zielland für Kapitalanlagen – einschließlich potenziell illegitimer Finanzströme – ist. Bei der Anzahl transnationaler Transaktionen dominiert Europa als Herkunfts- und als Zielregion, jeweils mit großem Abstand gefolgt von Asien. Bei den Volumina zeigt sich ein anderes Bild: Hier liegt Asien bei den Herkunftsländern vorne, während bei den Zielländern der Abstand geringer ist. Generell stehen die Länder der ehemaligen Sowjetunion im Fokus, wobei die baltischen Staaten besonders hervorstechen. Außerdem sind in den zentralasiatischen Staaten massive Zuwächse seit Beginn des russischen Angriffskriegs auf die Ukraine zu erkennen. Die Analyse unterstreicht zudem die zentrale Bedeutung ökonomischer Größe, geographischer Nähe – einschließlich institutioneller Aspekte –, von Diaspora-Netzwerken sowie von Offshore-Finanzplätzen für die Erklärung transnationaler Geldwäscheströme. Diese Erkenntnisse können dazu beitragen, staatliche Maßnahmen zur Bekämpfung von Geldwäsche gezielter und risikoorientierter auszurichten – indem der Fokus auf jene Länder und Regionen gelegt wird, in denen auf Basis der hier untersuchten Zahlungsströme die größten Risiken bestehen, und den Verpflichteten zugleich relevante Merkmale für ein wirksameres Monitoring an die Hand gegeben werden. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trr:wpaper:202602 |
| By: | Nita Handastya |
| Abstract: | Childhood socioeconomic disadvantage is a well established determinant of health in later life. Less is known about how early-life deprivation unfolds when individuals experience major institutional transformation and migration in adulthood. Cohorts socialized under Soviet institutions provide a useful setting to examine life-course divergence under systemic change. This study uses harmonized data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on older adults residing in Estonia, Latvia, and Israel to examine the association between retrospectively reported childhood deprivation and multiple health outcomes in later life, including poor self-rated health, chronic disease burden, functional limitation, depression, and a composite multifrailty indicator. Logistic regression models and predicted probabilities assess whether childhood deprivation predicts late-life health across different adult institutional contexts and whether associations vary by linguistic affiliation. Higher levels of childhood deprivation are consistently associated with poorer health outcomes across all three countries. Individuals in the highest deprivation quintile show substantially higher odds of adverse health outcomes, including multifrailty. Stratified analyses for Estonia and Latvia indicate broadly similar deprivation-health gradients among national-language and Russian-speaking populations. These findings highlight the persistence of childhood disadvantage and the importance of early-life conditions in shaping health inequalities in ageing populations exposed to systemic transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.14118 |
| By: | Niccolo Marco Eugenio Consonni; Glenn Magerman |
| Abstract: | We develop a Strategic Dependency Index (SDI) to quantify the welfare cost of product-levelimport price shocks. Unlike existing empirical indicators based on concentration metrics and ad hocthresholds, the SDI is derived from a structural cost-of-living framework, and allows for additivedecomposability across products, source countries and destination countries. We apply the SDIto the EU27, and estimate trade elasticities, love-for-variety parameters, and origin-destinationspecific taste shifters using highly disaggregated 8-digit product-level trade data over 2002–2021, instrumenting for prices and expenditure shares to address endogeneity. Three sets of findingsemerge. First, the products generating the largest welfare losses are petroleum oils, liquefied naturalgas, iron ores, and selected basic metals. Their strategic relevance stems from the interaction of bothlow substitutability across sources and large expenditure shares. Second, strategic dependencyvaries sharply across EU member states even for the same product, driven by fundamentallydifferent channels — high substitution elasticities in some countries versus large expenditure sharesin others — implying that uniform EU-wide policy responses may fail to address the heterogeneoussources of vulnerability. Third, the suppliers contributing most to aggregate welfare exposuredo not coincide with the geopolitical rivals dominating policy discourse: China, the USA, andRussia do not lead the SDI ranking. The SDI provides a tractable, theory-consistent framework forevaluating targeted policy interventions aimed at reducing strategic trade exposure. |
| Keywords: | strategic trade dependence; import vulnerability; welfare costs |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 D12 D60 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eca:wpaper:2013/404702 |