|
on Confederation of Independent States |
|
Issue of 2025–09–01
ten papers chosen by |
| By: | Gigi Ormotsadze; Tedo Evgenidze |
| Abstract: | The publication is a comprehensive analysis by the Economic Policy Research Center (EPRC). It investigates the multifaceted effects of the Ukraine war on Georgia’s economic landscape, combining insights from historical developments, current vulnerabilities, and future prospects. Authored by Gigi Ormotsadze and Tedo Evgenidze, the report highlights the country’s integration into global systems, its dependency on external economic factors, and the challenges posed by political and economic shifts. The document explores key sectors such as trade, energy, and finance, and scrutinizes how inflows of migrants, financial assets, and geopolitical instability have created both opportunities and risks. It underscores the resilience Georgia has demonstrated in its recovery from crises like COVID-19 and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while noting systemic weaknesses such as high debt levels, governance inefficiencies, and a reliance on external markets. The report closes with targeted policy recommendations aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and fostering sustainable growth. |
| Keywords: | Georgia, economic growth, economic security, energy dependence, foreign trade, financial sector, current account |
| JEL: | E01 E21 E22 E23 E31 E42 E58 E63 F10 F21 G21 H20 J11 K32 |
| Date: | 2025–01–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0509 |
| By: | Stengel, Frank A. (Kiel University) |
| Abstract: | Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, then-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a major reorientation of German security policy, including a significant increase in defence spending as well as arms deliveries to Ukraine. Scholz's announcement of a Zeitenwende (sea change) has triggered a renewed debate about continuity and change in German security policy, focusing on (1) whether the shift represents a major reorientation or a minor adaptation and (2) how to make sense of this in light of Germany's traditional culture of military restraint, the country's so-called “pacifism.” This article discusses the Zeitenwende in the context of Cold-War German security policy and German participation in multinational operations during the 1990s and 2000s. It shows that (1) the shift is not as radical as often presumed, (2) more fundamental change happened during the 1990s and 2000s and (3) understanding the Zeitenwende requires a more flexible, discursive conception of culture. |
| Date: | 2025–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:w69ev_v1 |
| By: | Jan Bazyli Klakla; Maciej Duszczyk |
| Abstract: | Over the last dozen years Poland became an immigration country. The 178th mBank-CASE Seminar proceedings is devoted to this process – from various perspectives. The data speak for themselves. Immigration provides significant support for the Polish labour market. Poland is facing a rapid population decline. According to projections by the Ministry of Finance in 2022, by 2030 the population of Poland could decrease from the current 37.75 million to 36.6 million, and by 2050 to 34.1 million. The percentage of people of working age will decrease, while the elderly population will increase. Immigration may provide a solution to this problem. In 2022, around 100, 000 people from Belarus arrived in Poland, most of them actively participating in the labour market. In addition, there are 1.2 million Ukrainians who stayed in Poland after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It is therefore necessary to develop a long-term immigration, education and social policy to retain immigrants and integrate them into society and the labour market. This is what eminent experts who have been researching migration processes for years write about in the first two chapters of these Notebooks: Dr Maciej Duszczyk, as well as Dr Agata Górny and Dr Paweł Kaczmarczyk, from the Centre for Migration Research, operating within the University of Warsaw. The third chapter is devoted to the situation of female domestic workers. |
| Keywords: | country of emigration, country of immigration, migration policy, visa policy, immigrant integration, war refugees, economic migrants, labour market, domestic work sector, Poland, Ukraine |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J48 J61 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–05–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:mbanks:0178 |
| By: | Polbin, Andrey; Shumilov, Andrei |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the quality of probabilistic nowcasts and short-term forecasts of the Russian GDP and its components in constant prices (consumption, investment, exports and imports) based on the standard quantile regression model and its shrinkage modifications, aimed at reducing the risk of overfitting (averages of quantile forecasts, partial quantile regression, regressions with regularization, Bayesian quantile regression). We find that quantile models with predictors are superior to autoregressive and OLS models in terms of CRPS (Continuous Ranked Probability Score) metrics in nowcasting exercises for investment and consumption. When forecasting 1-4 quarters ahead, shrinkage models yield the most accurate forecasts of GDP and consumption distributions at all horizons. For investment and imports, shrinkage methods turn out to be the best performers at three forecast horizons out of four. There is no single shrinkage model, which would provide the best probabilistic forecasts of macroeconomic variables much more often than others. |
| Keywords: | macroeconomic forecasting; nowcasting; probabilistic forecast; quantile regressions; shrinkage; Bayesian methods; Russia |
| JEL: | C22 C53 E17 E27 F17 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125440 |
| By: | AleÅ› AlachnoviÄ; Julia Korosteleva |
| Abstract: | The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many academic scholars for years. Belarus has often been referred to as a transition outlier, given its relatively fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, the state control of the economy still remains considerably high. Subsidized financing of state-owned enterprises allowed to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, to achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and to avoid social destabilization. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on the Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigue, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022 put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This working paper gives an overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the presidential elections to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest for the economy and the Belarusian society overall, and discusses the anticrisis and mid-term economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo. |
| Keywords: | Belarusian economic model, political crisis, economic reforms |
| JEL: | O11 O52 P21 P26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:worpap:0017 |
| By: | Ozili, Peterson K; Okeke, Esther Ngozika; Obiora, Kingsley I. |
| Abstract: | Wars occur frequently in the world today. Wars cause economic distortions, and they lead to adverse human, economic and social consequences. Monetary policy actions can be used to cushion the adverse effects of war on the economy. Monetary authorities can respond to war by developing wartime monetary policy frameworks to control inflation and to support the war economy throughout the war. This article explores some monetary policy options that central banks can adopt during war. They include increase interest rate at the start of the war to control inflation expectations, hold interest rate at the same level when there is high uncertainty around war, decrease interest rate when war is battering the economy on multiple fronts, decrease cash reserve requirements on bank deposits during war as was observed in Russia, keep liquidity ratio fixed or increase it during war as was seen in Ukraine, the sale of government securities during war should be considered as well as and the unpopular and least advisable option of printing money to increase money supply during war. The recommended wartime monetary policy options in the study are useful to economists, central banks and governments who are facing war in their countries. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; central bank interest rate; monetary policy rate; war; economic impact of war; inflation; cash reserve ratio; money supply; liquidity ratio; interest rate; banks |
| JEL: | E42 E44 E51 E52 E58 E59 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125397 |
| By: | ABBA |
| Abstract: | The report explores how the political unrest in Belarus, especially after the disputed presidential elections in August 2020, led many businesses to leave the country. It discusses the difficulties these businesses faced, like more government scrutiny, fewer customers, and limited chances to grow. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, new economic sanctions made it even harder for businesses to stay in Belarus. This forced many to consider moving elsewhere. Furthermore, the text mentions that because of the tough business environment and stricter rules, a lot of Belarusian businesses shut down. This prompted some entrepreneurs to leave Belarus and start anew in the European Union. The report aims to give a clear picture of how many Belarusian businesses are now in the EU, what they’re doing, and what problems they’re encountering. |
| Keywords: | Belarus, Belarusian Business Abroad, Business Migration, Entrepreneurial Activity, Financial Challenges, Self-Employment, Investment in the EU, Economic Sanctions, Business Relocation, EU Business Environment, Start-ups, Immigrant Entrepreneurs, Banking Restrictions, Business Financing, Economic Integration |
| JEL: | F22 L26 O15 P20 G21 F36 D25 P31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–05–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0508 |
| By: | Wei Luo (GeospatialX Lab, Geography Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore); Siyuan Kang (GeospatialX Lab, Geography Department, National University of Singapore, Singapore); Qian Di (Vanke School of Public Health, Tsinghua University, Beijing) |
| Abstract: | US-China trade tensions, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict have disrupted and reshaped global supply chains. Existing studies caution that these tensions may not meaningfully reduce U.S. dependence on China-linked supply chains. This study examines the drivers of this unmet reallocation under overlapping geopolitical and public health disruptions. It investigates how these shocks jointly reconfigured bilateral trade and global value chain (GVC) participation and positioning among the U.S., China, and major trading partners during 2016-2023. Using monthly bilateral trade data across all sectors and multi-regional input-output tables for GVC decomposition, we combine a multi-period event-study with structural analysis to evaluate trade-flow disruptions and shifts in participation and functional positioning within GVCs. We find that China's exports remained robust, expanded across global markets, and sustained a rise in GVC participation, becoming more embedded in upstream segments through increased intermediate shipments to Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. imports increasingly shifted toward "China+1" partners, especially ASEAN, whose trade structures remain closely tied to Chinese upstream supply chains. These strengthening triangular relationships reveal how global reallocation and GVCs have evolved around the U.S. and China across successive shocks. Based on the evidence, we propose a supply chain resilience framework defined by three interacting dimensions: the level of GVC participation, the functional position within the value chain, and a country's capacity to re-couple in the post-shock landscape, conditioned by market diversification, economic complexity, and institutional capability. These findings carry significant implications for trade policy and industrial strategy in an era of geopolitical and geoeconomic fragmentation. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2508.06828 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | In the context of Uzbekistan’s transition to a market-based economy, the authorities have undertaken several reform measures that strengthened banking supervision. Starting in 2019, a new central bank law enhanced the independence of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) and set price and banking sector stability as its mandate. In 2020, the Government of Uzbekistan’s (GoU) Banking Sector Reform Strategy laid the foundation for privatizing many state-owned commercial banks (SOCBs) and changing their operating model towards a commercially orientated and competitive system. In December 2023, the CBU Board of Directors adopted the Guidelines on Risk-Based Supervision (GRBS). As of November 2024, additional legislations1 have been drafted and are under consideration by the Parliament: i) to establish the Financial Stability Board and designate the CBU as the new Resolution Authority; and ii) to extend the deposit insurance system from physical persons to legal entities, introduce a limit to the protection of deposits (UZS 200 MN), and gradually reduce the term for the possible compensation to depositors (up to seven days). |
| Date: | 2025–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/227 |
| By: | Bhardwaj, Tanush (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Climate change continues to escalate, yet the United States still sees limited legislative action due to political polarization and concerns over economic impacts. In contrast, many countries globally have taken pragmatic action, demonstrating the effectiveness of climate legislation when supported by unified political will. Prior studies of the international adoption of climate change legislation have shown that new policies have increasingly been implemented since the turn of the 21st century, with numerous factors affecting the rate of adoption. This study analyzes climate legislation adopted between 2000 and 2022 in European Union and BRICS countries to identify effective frameworks for adoption in the US. The countries were chosen to diversify the sample data by including differing economic drivers and political landscapes. Using a quantitative approach, this analysis consists of 91 multivariate linear regressions, to examine correlations between policy aspects—categorized by instrument, sector, type, and objective—and CO₂ emissions per capita. The models control for GDP per capita, population, fossil fuel percentage, and carbon pricing in order to validate comparison across countries. Findings reveal that policies involving tendering schemes, general legislative measures, low-carbon technology promotion, fuel switching, and climate adaptation are consistently associated with statistically significant reductions in emissions (p-value < 0.05). The results suggest that a data-backed approach can contribute to bipartisan climate policy and highlight policy aspects which reduce emissions while supporting favorable economic outcomes. This research informs a policy proposal tailored to the US to serve as guidance for lawmakers in implementing effective climate policy measures. |
| Date: | 2025–08–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rpqst_v1 |