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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Diego S. Cardoso; Stephen W. Salant; Julien Daubanes; Julien Xavier Daubanes |
| Abstract: | To reduce funds for Russia’s Ukraine invasion, Western governments imposed a price ceiling on Russian seaborne oil exports using Western services. To sell above that ceiling, Russia developed a “shadow fleet” which uses no such services. We use a calibrated model driven by this fleet’s expansion to assess various sanctions. While all sanctions reduce the present value of Russia’s profits, we find that the tighter the ceiling and the tighter the enforcement, the less harm sanctions impose, contradicting conventional wisdom based on Hotelling lemma. However, policies to reduce the shadow fleet’s size may increase the sanction’s effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | economic warfare, sanctions evasion, Hotelling’s lemma |
| JEL: | D04 L51 Q41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11618 |
| By: | Axelle Ferriere (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 prompted numerous countries to impose economic sanctions against Russia. In the months following the onset of the conflict, coalitions of nations collaboratively devised a set of measures aimed at restricting trade with Russia. Additionally, assets belonging to Russian individuals or companies were frozen. The scale of these sanctions has been unparalleled, marking a historic moment not witnessed for decades. This pertains not only to the extent and variety of economic actions taken against Russia but also to the aspect of implementing such actions against a nation of Russia's size and geopolitical importance. To evaluate the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy, analysts examined the exchange rate, which has the advantage of being available in real time. Initially, after the sanctions were imposed, the Ruble experienced depreciation, prompting several analysts to assert the effectiveness of the sanctions. However, a few months later, the Ruble began to appreciate, eventually surpassing its pre-war level in late spring 2022 and maintaining this elevated position for several months. This rebound in the Russian currency raised inquiries about the correlation between sanctions and exchange rates: is it inevitable for the currency to depreciate after sanctions, and if so, why? |
| Date: | 2024–04–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04849208 |
| By: | Petru Vasile Gafiuc (Al I Cuza University, Romania) |
| Abstract: | This article examines the situation of Ukrainian refugees regarding their integration into the labor market in Romania, analyzing the current statistical data and the social measures taken by the central public institutions after the start of the war in Ukraine. Given that integration is a complex process, many significant challenges are encountered both among Ukrainian citizens and at the institutional level. A series of difficulties were highlighted both in the recognition of diplomas, professional certificates, the equivalence of studies, enrollment in professional training programs, as well as in information regarding the identification of jobs, labor legislation in Romania, various aspects of employment. Moreover, the language barrier, bureaucratic procedures, and the legislative differences between the two countries are among the main impediments to the integration process. Therefore, it is necessary to implement social support measures and develop coherent policies that promote the social inclusion of Ukrainian refugees, both for their benefit and for the Romanian community through their contribution to the economy and the elimination of the labor force deficit. Solid partnerships, the promotion of good practices between institutions and organizations, as well as the involvement of all social actors in the community are necessary conditions for the effective development of support programs that offer quality social services. |
| Keywords: | integration, labor market, equivalence of studies, professional training, inclusion policies, social integration measures, work mediation |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0425 |
| By: | Leslie Sheng Shen |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk has intensified in recent years, driven by events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, escalating tensions between the United States and China, and conflicts in the Middle East. But how risky is the geopolitical landscape according to US firms? This brief presents a new index based on earnings call transcripts that reflects US firms’ perceptions of geopolitical risk and examines how those assessments affect their future investment, that is, their spending on long-term assets such as facilities, equipment, and technology. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; firm investment; cash position |
| JEL: | D80 E22 G30 |
| Date: | 2025–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbcq:99551 |
| By: | Rim Berahab |
| Abstract: | The global energy landscape in 2024 reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic pressures, and uneven progress in clean energy transitions. Despite record growth in renewable energy deployment and advancements in low-carbon technologies, the world continues to fall short of meeting its climate goals. Fragmented markets, entrenched fossil fuel dependencies, and supply chain vulnerabilities continue to challenge energy security and hinder global decarbonization efforts. Geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East, have reshaped trade flows, deepened regional dependencies, and highlighted the fragility of global energy systems. This paper analyzes key trends shaping the energy sector in 2024 and anticipates their implications for 2025. It examines the record-high demand for coal, the uneven deployment of clean energy technologies, the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence on electricity consumption, and the challenges of implementing effective carbon pricing mechanisms. The findings underscore the urgent need for coordinated international action to address vulnerabilities, align policy frameworks, and foster resilience in energy markets. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbcoen:pb02_25 |
| By: | Zurab Khonelidze (Sokhumi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia); Lika Chimchiuri (Sokhumi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia) |
| Abstract: | Human rights and freedoms are often violated in post-conflict occupied territories. Violations occur even after hostilities are over. In such regions, the protection of human rights and the reestablishment of peace is a difficult process that increases the discord between the opposing parties. Peacebuilding is not only about stopping violence, it also requires the restoration of healthy relations between the conflicting sides, human dignity and justice. The topic is devoted to such issues as violation of human rights in post-conflict occupied territories, factors impeding peace processes, etc. We will consider conflict zones, such as the Abkhazia Autonomous Republic of Georgia, the so-called South Ossetia (Tskhinvali region of Georgia) and Ukraine. Furthermore, the role of international organizations, local civil society, governments and transnational legal mechanisms in peacebuilding and reconciliation will be considered. We will familiarize ourselves with shortcomings and contradictions that we encounter in the process of peacebuilding and human rights protection in the post-conflict occupied territories, and relevant recommendations will be provided. |
| Keywords: | human rights, peacebuilding, post-conflict territories, occupation |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0466 |
| By: | Labhard, Vincent; Saliba, Maria Christine |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from supply drivers at origin, in transport, or at destination. The results from the suite show that the supply shock has had wide-spread effects, and that their dynamics have been industry-, sector- and country-specific. Supply conditions have been tighter for longer in the euro area than other areas, in automobile than digital and food industries, in services relative to other sectors, and in some countries than others. The drivers at home appear to account for an increasing share of the specificity at the end of the sample, and a broader data set helps to better capture these drivers. The results also confirm that the supply indices in the suite lag supply shocks and lead variables susceptible to the effects of supply shocks. JEL Classification: C43, C82, E66, R32, R41 |
| Keywords: | euro area countries, industries, sectors, supply chains, supply conditions |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253015 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | 2024 Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/031 |
| By: | Burlacu de Paoli, Irina |
| Abstract: | This Study mirrors the developments of information and communications technology (ICT) and its use in the education sector of the Republic of Moldova, where the term ‘education technologies’ (EdTech) is not widely used in education strategies and policies. Nonetheless, thanks to multiple nation-wide projects and important international technological partnerships, such as the first partnership of the Technical University of Moldova (TUM) with Google, there is an emerging interest of the national authorities, which is evidenced through enhanced endeavours aimed at education digitalization. |
| JEL: | H52 |
| Date: | 2024–09–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024024 |
| By: | Zurab Khonelidze (Sokhumi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia); Mariam Bregvadze (Sokhumi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia) |
| Abstract: | Peace policy is an essential component of a state's foreign political strategy. After the end of WWII, and with the establishment of the United Nations system, peaceful coexistence among states became of paramount importance. This issue gained even more significance after the dissolution of the Soviet Union's empire. The evolving geopolitical scenario has caused changes in the political approaches of states toward one another. The approaches used to develop peace policy have evolved over time, leading to the modeling of methods for policy implementation. As a result, protecting international peace and security remains the primary concern of both international organizations and governments. Numerous procedures have been created to address these issues, but their success remains questionable, as evidenced by the ongoing active military conflicts and the political decisions of states. Subjects of international law openly affirm the importance of peaceful cooperation, but this is not reflected in their political behavior. There are various perspectives on how to resolve these existing issues. The presented article will analyze the military-political situation in the South Caucasus, the Balkan states, and Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Based on this analysis, it will highlight the role of diplomacy today in the implementation of peace policy, both as a tool for realizing the foreign policies of states and as a means of addressing these issues through peace policy. The article will also examine the flaws in the mechanisms of managing peace policy. |
| Keywords: | international security, peace policy, diplomacy, geopolitical situation, international law |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0476 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject to elevated risks, including from an uncertain external environment. Decisive reforms are necessary to diversify the economy, make growth higher and more inclusive, and address challenges from climate change. |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2025/030 |
| By: | Menéndez de Medina, Maria (RS: GSBE MGSoG, Maastricht Graduate School of Governance); Pietrobelli, Carlo (RS: UNU-MERIT); Valverde Carbonell, Jorge (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | Minerals' criticality and countries' mining competitiveness are two dimensions that have gained relevance in the economic and policy agenda due to the key role of minerals in the energy transition. To a certain extent, these product-country dimensions can be seen as two faces of the same coin, which intertwine and simultaneously co-determine each other. Therefore, economic complexity techniques appear as a useful methodology to simultaneously estimate both dimensions. This paper employs economic complexity techniques to build an unsupervised Fitness-Criticality algorithm, that allows simultaneously estimating countries' mining competitiveness (Fitness Mining Index) and minerals' criticality (Criticality Minerals Index). Our indexes are efficient in terms of the set of information employed, and do not rely on subjective perspectives and assessments. The results of the estimates suggest that South Africa, Russia, the United States, Norway, Canada, Australia and Chile are the most competitive countries. Moreover, the Platinum Group Metals, Lithium, Silicon and Rare Earths appear as the most critical minerals. These results are consistent with other methodologies employed by different organizations that separately estimate both dimensions and derive countries’ and minerals’ rankings. |
| JEL: | Q30 Q37 O13 |
| Date: | 2023–07–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023025 |
| By: | Bouët, Antoine; Traoré, Fousseini; Mamboundou, Pierre; Diop, Insa; Sy, Abdourahmane |
| Abstract: | Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.†International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply. |
| Keywords: | food security; nutrition; sustainable development goals; self-sufficiency; trade; policies; agriculture; Africa |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:sfs4yp:4 |
| By: | Halim Han (Hanbat National University, Daejeon, Korea of Republic) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to analyze instructor strategies for constructing Korean picture books dealing with self-narratives. The 15 bilingual children in the case study had either Russian or English as their first language and had very low oral proficiency in Korean, having lived in Korea for an average of less than 3 years. Therefore, it was difficult for children to compose their picture book independently. In this study, strategies for self-narrative construction were devised and applied, addressing linguistic, content, cultural and identity aspects over the course of 10 weeks of lessons. The result of the study showed that children with low oral proficiency were able to construct their own narrative through teacher’s collaborative strategies. In interviews, both children and parents expressed high levels of satisfaction with the picture books. |
| Keywords: | collaborative storytelling, bilingual children, Korean picture books, educational strategies |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0434 |
| By: | Gulcan Doganay (Department of Economics, Abdullah Gul University, Kayseri, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between economic development, democracy, and carbon emissions in the BRICS + 6 countries, considering the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Hypothesis. By using the data from 1991 to 2020, it aims to fill the research gap on whether economic development and democratic governance consistently lead to better environmental quality, focusing on carbon emissions as a primary measure. This research is distinctive because it considers the cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity of the countries involved, employing robust regression models to examine the effects of various factors, including GDP, democracy index, and population, on carbon emissions. The study revisits the EKC hypothesis, which suggests an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, proposing that environmental quality deteriorates up to a certain income level before improving. However, it also explores critiques of the EKC, recognizing that the trajectory of environmental degradation is influenced by more than just income levels—factors such as technological advancement, economic structure, governmental environmental policies, and the level of democracy also play crucial roles. Expected to provide valuable insights for policy formulation, this research highlights the complex interactions between economic devel-opment, democratic governance, and environmental sustainability. It underscores the necessity of integrating democratic processes with economic and environmental planning to foster sustainable development, offering a nu-anced perspective on the dynamics between democracy, income, and environmental quality in the BRICS + 6 countries. |
| Keywords: | EKC Hypothesis, Economic Development, Democracy, Environmental Degradation |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0438 |