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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Chahir Zaki (University of Orléans) |
| Abstract: | The Russian war in Ukraine led to significant disruptions in trade in cereals, especially wheat and other products that are key for food security. This paper investigates the impact of the war in Ukraine on food security in Egypt through a gender lens using a newly collected dataset. The case of Egypt is of particular interest as it is a large importer of wheat; experienced other concurrent economic crises; and is among the largest economies in the Middle East and North Africa. The analysis distinguishes the impact of the war in Ukraine from other factors resulting in more fragile food security. Results indicate that the way domestic economic policies were implemented increased food insecurity caused by the war. Female headed-households and women in femaleheaded households were more strongly impacted by increasing food insecurity. Government support measures did not significantly reduce the negative implications of the war on food insecurity |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1758 |
| By: | Ana Paula Pellegrino; Benjamin R. Burnley; Laia Balcells |
| Abstract: | Does the outbreak of a major international war change political discourse? Drawing on theories of political communication and elite cueing, identity salience, and threat perception, we hypothesize that the outbreak of a war of aggression by a major power increases the use of nationalist rhetoric by heads of government in other, non-belligerent, states. To test this hypothesis, we analyse over 10, 000 tweets by heads of government from 130 countries before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. |
| Keywords: | Nationalism, Conflict, Social networks |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-2 |
| By: | Anda David (Agence Française de Développement Author-Name: Jackline Wahba; University of Southampton); Rawane Yasser (Agence Française de Développement) |
| Abstract: | Egypt has experienced a major economic crisis since March 2022, which has had substantial impacts on food inflation and standards of living. This crisis was compounded by the COVID19 pandemic, its global implications, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For many Egyptians, international temporary migration and remittances have been coping mechanisms, allowing them to diversify their income. This paper investigates the role played by international migration as a livelihood strategy during the recent economic crisis. It highlights the trends and patterns of current overseas migration, return migration, remittances and migration intentions for the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. The findings show that while the international emigration rate has increased, the return migration rate has substantially declined. In addition, the profile of migrants has changed as the share of low educated migrants increased, as well as the share of those holding precarious jobs prior to migrating. There results suggest that recent economic conditions in Egypt may be reshaping the patterns of Egyptian migration. |
| Date: | 2024–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1753 |
| By: | Anna Bączkowska (University of Gdańsk, Poland); Agnieszka Hess (Jagiellonian University, Krakow, Poland); Artur Lipiński (Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznan, Poland); Arkadiusz Misztal (University of Gdańsk, Poland); Aneta Dłutek (University of Gdańsk, Poland); Joanna Tillack (University of Gdańsk, Poland) |
| Abstract: | Purpose One of the consequences of digital transformation is social polarisation, which has negative effects on discourse polarisation and radicalization, particularly targeting immigrants. These processes are also present in the case of Poland and a flood of Ukrainian immigrants. As a result, scholars seek novel tools and methodologies to grasp the scale of discourse radicalization and society polarization. The content online is expressed particularly freely on social media, which house distributed, decentralized information created in a bottom-up fashion (Yarchi et al., 2020). They have become a substitute for institutionalized public debate (Baden et al., 2025) and often allow the radical content to spread virally. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to demonstrate how this radical, polarized discourse can be analyzed. The onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 precipitated massive emigration of Ukrainians to the neighbouring countries, with Poland emerging as the host of the most significant number of immigrants from the conflict-ridden nation. The unprecedented aid and hospitality extended to Ukrainians by Poles were lauded across European media. This initial positive sentiment and welcoming reception, however, have gradually shifted towards a growing dissatisfaction and even hostility towards Ukrainians over the ensuing three years, as evidenced on social media. The purpose of this research is thus to analyse the social climate of Poles discussing Ukrainian immigrants to Poland based on comments expressed on social media (YouTube) as a reaction to an interview with a Ukrainian leader of the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland. Design/methodology/approach This study aims to analyze comments posted in February 2025 on Polish YouTube regarding the situation and status of Ukrainians in Poland and the perception of Ukrainians by Poles following the widely publicized, controversial statements of Natalia Panchenko, the leader of the Ukrainian diaspora in Poland. The leader’s provocative opinions on Poles and the status of Ukrainians in Poland, presented during her interview on the Ukrainian TV Channel 5, sparked extensive commentary by Polish journalists, politicians, and social media users. Even though she later denied expressing these statements, attributing them to Russian manipulation and fake news in several interviews published on YouTube, her words nonetheless provoked a significant backlash, which manifested in an outpouring of grievances, expressing disapproval or even condemnation of some Ukrainians, as well as a severe criticism of the immigration policy adopted by the Polish government. Following the interview on the Ukrainian TV, she gave another interview on the Super Express YouTube channel (affiliated with one of Poland’s private television stations), where she attempted to clarify her views on Polish-Ukrainian relations and to fend off the severe criticism she had received after her controversial remarks on Ukrainian television. The critical comments analyzed in this study were posted by YouTube users in response to her interview with the Polish journalist. The comments were collected over a one-month period, resulting in a dataset of approximately 7, 000 entries. A randomly selected sample of ca. 1200 sample of comments was extracted from the original set and analyzed both qualitatively and quantitatively. For qualitative analysis, Atlas.ti was used to enable research in line with the Grounded Theory (Strauss and Coblin, 1994). A carefully selected sample of the collected comments was next annotated by four expert annotators and a super-annotator after a series of training sessions (with inter-rater agreement oscillating around 0.8). The annotation-based qualitative study is followed by a computerized automatic examination of the data, particularly sentiment analysis, topic modelling, and trends. The tools used in this part of the study stem from corpus linguistics methodology and the latest, cutting-edge neural network-based tools (the so-called deep learning methods) known as Transformers (BERT; Devlin et al., 2019). Theoretically, the study is framed within theories of identity, Critical Discourse Analysis (e.g., van Leeuwen, 2008), and theories and models of evaluative language. The analysis had the following research questions: RQ (1) What is the general perception of Ukrainian residents in Poland by Poles 3 years after the war onset, according to the comments under inspection? RQ (2) How is the Ukrainian identity constructed by the Polish YT users? RQ (3) How is the Polish identity constructed by the Polish YT users in the context of the Ukrainian refugees’ flood? Findings The study has uncovered interesting tendencies and trends in how Polish social media users evaluate immigrants from the war-ridden Ukraine over time, and which factors are crucial in the user-generated, radically negative opinions. Our research also shows the effectiveness of computational methods when applied to media discourse in public opinion research. Originality/value The originality of our study is twofold. It resides in merging two scholarly approaches and traditions: media studies and linguistics. On the other hand, the use of computerized automatic data retrieval and analysis, particularly neural networks represented by deep learning, is a novel approach in media studies. The categories of description that researchers typically resort to in such studies are various types of discourse strategies, well-known categories in linguistic scholarship. In our study, however, we propose novel categories which combine methodological traditions originating in linguistic and media studies. |
| Keywords: | Political polarization, Computational methods, Ukrainians |
| JEL: | J28 J61 J83 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:270-272 |
| By: | Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Maurice Obstfeld |
| Abstract: | The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds. This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment. We show theoretically that the government can refine this strategy by internalizing positive externalities from having a higher capital stock: Investment in physical capital relaxes borrowing constraints (thus allowing more capital inflows) and raises wages (thus encouraging more Ukrainian refugees to return home). |
| JEL: | E2 F2 F5 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34715 |
| By: | Zhiwu Hong (China University of Political Science and Law); Linlin Niu (Xiamen University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk (GPR) transmits to Eurozone sovereign bond yields using an affine macro-finance yield net model. We find GPR shocks raise inflation expectations immediately with significance and persistence, subsequently lifting sovereign yields most sharply at the medium term, explaining about 30\% of yield variation at a five-year horizon. Surprisingly, transmission is strongest in fiscally robust members, not high-debt countries. This pattern aligns with national commitments to Ukraine, revealing that direct fiscal engagements---enabled by their fiscal space---drive risk pricing, underscoring the monetary-fiscal trade-offs facing policymakers under geopolitical stress. |
| Keywords: | Geopolitical risk; Eurozone; Sovereign risk premia; Fiscal exposure; Affine term structure models |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E43 F51 G15 |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wyi:wpaper:002614 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/018 |
| By: | Gjorgji Gockov (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia); Goran Hristovski (Faculty of Economics-Skopje, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje, North Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the dynamic return spillovers among ten Eastern European stock markets using an extended joint connectedness approach. We analyze daily log returns from 2010 to 2024 for equity indices of Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, North Macedonia, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Ukraine. We employ the Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness framework, augmented with a Time-Varying Parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model to capture evolving relationships, and incorporate the extended joint spillover methodology to address bias from normalization. The Connectedness Approach R package is used for implementation. Our results show that these markets exhibit a moderate degree of interconnectedness on average - the Total Connectedness Index is around 25%, indicating that roughly one-quarter of forecast variance is due to cross-market shocks. Spillovers are highly time-varying, with pronounced surges during major crises such as the European sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Directional spillover analysis reveals that larger markets (e.g., Romania, Poland, Czech Republic) tend to be net transmitters of shocks, whereas smaller frontier markets (e.g., Serbia, Bosnia, North Macedonia) are net recipients. The extended joint connectedness measures largely confirm the traditional spillover estimates while providing a more theoretically grounded aggregate index. These findings shed light on the evolving integration of Eastern European stock markets, offering insights for portfolio diversification and financial stability monitoring. |
| Keywords: | Dynamic connectedness, Eastern European stock markets, Spillovers, Extended Joint connectedness |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–12–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoh:conpro:2025:i:6:p:46-60 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan’s economy is showing clear signs of overheating. After growing by around 5 percent in 2023 and 2024, the economy is expected to expand by 6.2 percent in 2025, fueled by rising oil production, a loose fiscal stance, expanding quasi-fiscal activities, and rapid consumer lending. Inflation remains stubbornly high at around 12½ percent and the current account deficit is widening. The outlook faces elevated risks from persistent inflation, an uncertain external environment, and weaker oil prices. |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/017 |