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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Marangé, Céline (Ed.); Stewart, Susan (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | This joint study by the SWP and the Institute for Strategic Research (IRSEM, Paris) starts from the premise that Ukraine's and Russia's visions of European security are fundamentally incompatible. Ukraine aims to join existing Western structures and contribute to their reinforcement, whereas Russia intends to gain control of Ukraine and undermine the foundations of the European and transatlantic security architecture. A vast majority of European actors see Russia as a serious threat to European security and democracy. This means that Europe's main external focus will be on deterring and defending itself from Russia in at least the medium term. A critical mass of actors views NATO and the EU as the principal pillars of security in Europe. They intend to find ways to strengthen both organisations while ensuring that the United States remains involved in protecting European security. A large consensus has emerged around consolidating a "European pillar of NATO". At the same time, the EU has managed to become a recognised and influential actor in the field of European security with surprising rapidity. Minilateral and ad hoc formats such as the "Nordic-Baltic 8" and the "Coalition of the Willing" are gaining traction, in part because they allow the consensus requirements of larger organisations to be circumvented, thus providing more flexibility. There is broad agreement on continuing Ukraine's integration into both the EU and NATO. However, not only the degree of commitment to Kyiv, but also the tempo of Europe's actions will determine the extent to which Ukraine becomes part of the European security order. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:331859 |
| By: | Sona Siva (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Institute of Information Theory and Automation, Czech Academy of Sciences); Jaromir Baxa (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of the full-scale Russian invasion on regional banking activity in Ukraine, focusing on differences across regions directly affected by military operations, neighboring areas, and non-occupied regions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences approach with multiple treatments, we find that war-induced disruptions extend beyond directly occupied regions, significantly influencing lending and deposit behavior also in regions neighboring the frontline. Lending in long-term occupied regions experienced the most severe decline, while short-term occupied areas and Kyiv also saw substantial reductions over time. Notably, the lending contraction in the regions neighboring occupied areas followed a pattern similar to that in the temporarily occupied regions, highlighting significant spillover effects. The shift toward short-term lending intensified in all affected regions, reflecting heightened financial uncertainty. The war also led to a widening of interest rate spreads, particularly in Kyiv and shortterm occupied areas, signaling elevated credit risk. Although deposits grew, lending remained limited after liberation, highlighting ongoing economic stagnation and constraint created by the partial dollarisation of the economy. These findings have crucial implications for post-war recovery policies, emphasizing the need for targeted financial support that should be extended beyond the regions directly involved in a war. |
| Keywords: | banking activity, lending, deposits, war |
| JEL: | G21 G28 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2025_26 |
| By: | Skalski, Emma |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the key drivers of global urea price fluctuations. As a key agricultural input boosting yields per hectare, urea reached a record $925 per metric ton in April 2022 in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine. This price increase raised production costs for farmers, thereby presenting a substantial threat to global food security. This study employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on monthly data from 1985 to 2023 to examine the effects of energy prices, agricultural commodity prices, the real effective exchange rate (REER) and temperature anomalies on urea price dynamics, while also assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The main results indicate that energy and agricultural prices positively affect urea prices in the long run, while the REER has a negative impact. Furthermore, increasing temperature anomalies are associated with higher urea prices. Finally, I find that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly contributed to increases in urea prices. These findings provide valuable information on the dynamics of urea prices, enabling the development of agricultural policies and decision making to stabilize urea prices and ensure stable access to this fertilizer, which plays a crucial role in global food security. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance, Demand and Price Analysis |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356711 |
| By: | Brenner, János; Furkert, Matthias; Gebekken, Norbert; Hartz, Andrea; Kandora, Carsten; Klee, Andreas; Krings, Susanne; Kurth, Detlef; Priebs, Axel; Starnofsky, Caroline |
| Abstract: | Die russische Annexion der Krim 2014 und der Angriffskrieg Russlands gegen die Ukraine 2022 haben unter anderem dazu geführt, Landes- und Bündnisverteidigung sowie Bevölkerungsschutz als notwendige gesellschaftliche Aufgabe wieder verstärkt ins öffentliche und politische Blickfeld Deutschlands zu rücken. Dabei wird deutlich, dass im militärischen und im zivilen Bereich umfangreiche Nachholbedarfe bestehen, nicht zuletzt bei der Stärkung der gesellschaftlichen und räumlichen Resilienz. Auch Raumordnung und Raumordnungspolitik mit ihrer Kernkompetenz für die Gestaltung räumlicher Strukturen und Entwicklungen auf allen Ebenen müssen einen Beitrag leisten, die Resilienz von Staat, Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft zu stärken. Dieses Positionspapier zeigt auf, wie wichtig die Sicherung und Stärkung resilienter Raumstrukturen durch Raumordnung und Raumentwicklung sind und welche Handlungsmöglichkeiten (und -notwendigkeiten) auf allen Ebenen der räumlichen Planung in diesem Sinne genutzt und erweitert werden sollen. Es wird unter anderem argumentiert, dass in die Instrumente der Raumordnung und der Raumordnungspolitik Resilienzaspekte verpflichtend berücksichtigt werden sollten und dass tradierte Maxime in Frage gestellt werden müssen, etwa die Bündelung von Infrastrukturen. Im Positionspapier werden zahlreiche Empfehlungen für Festsetzungen formuliert, die die Länder und die Träger der Regionalplanung zur Unterstützung von Landes- und Bündnisverteidigung und Bevölkerungsschutz in ihre jeweiligen Pläne einarbeiten sollten. Schließlich wird dafür plädiert, dass die unterschiedlichen Akteurgruppen in diesem Feld (Raumordnung, Landes- und Bündnisverteidigung, Bevölkerungsschutz) in einen kontinuierlichen Austausch treten. |
| Abstract: | Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its war of aggression against Ukraine in 2022 have, among other things, brought national and alliance defence as well as civil protection back into the public and political spotlight as necessary social tasks. It becomes clear that there are extensive needs for catch-up in both the military and civilian sectors, not least in terms of strengthening societal and spatial resilience. Spatial planning and spatial planning policy, with their core competence for shaping spatial structures and developments at all levels, must also contribute to strengthening the resilience of the state, the economy, and society. This position paper highlights the importance of securing and strengthening resilient spatial structures through spatial planning and development and outlines the options (and necessities) for action at all levels of spatial planning that should be utilized and expanded in this regard. Among other things, it argues that resilience aspects should be included as a matter of course in spatial planning instruments and spatial planning policy, and that traditional maxims, such as the bundling of infrastructure, must be questioned. The position paper formulates numerous recommendations for designations that the federal states and regional planning organizations should incorporate into their respective plans to support state and alliance defence and civil protection. Finally, it calls for actors in the fields of spatial planning, state and alliance defence as well as civil protection to engage in a continuous dialogue. |
| Keywords: | Resilienz, Landes- und Bündnisverteidigung, Bevölkerungsschutz, militärische Konflikte, Raumordnung, Resilience, National and alliance defence, Civil protection, Military conflicts, Spatial planning |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:331865 |
| By: | Deryugina, Tatyana (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Zaldokas, Alminas (National University of Singapore); Fedyk, Anastassia (University of California at Berkeley); Gorodnichenko, Yuriy (University of California, Berkeley); Hodson, James (AI for Good); Sologoub, Ilona (VoxUkraine) |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel, scalable method for assessing the quality of public procurement systems using standard administrative data. Our approach compares the distribution of procurement opportunities to the distribution of contract awards across firms. We first derive a simple theoretical benchmark that relates the expected distribution of contract value winning firms, measured as a Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), to the distribution of auction values, measured as a respective HHI, and the number of winning firms. Significant deviations of winning firms' HHI from this benchmark indicate potential governance failures such as corruption or unchecked collusion. Our method requires no subjective input, is transparent and reproducible, and allows for meaningful comparisons across countries, industry sectors, and over time. We use procurement data from Ukraine and EU member states in 2018-2021 to assess the performance of five large sectors. Ukraine's procurement performance in four of the five sectors is comparable to many other European countries, but Ukraine's construction sector consistently displays the largest excess concentration among all countries considered, consistent with anecdotal evidence of corruption in this sector. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, corruption, procurement, collusion |
| JEL: | D73 L10 H11 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18257 |
| By: | Lewis, Vivien; Puangjit, Sirikorn |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three-equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases. We calibrate the GPR process, sanction rule, and interest rate rule to match the observed dynamics of the GPR index, output, inflation, and the policy rate in Russian data. The sanction response to GPR allows the resulting model to capture the empirical impulse responses well. Additionally, we find that Russia's monetary policy rule is more accommodative than prescribed by the standard Taylor rule. While this may reflect policy preferences, recent theoretical results indicate that such a policy stance may be optimal when sanctions act as cost-push shocks that shift the Phillips Curve. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, monetary policy, New Keynesian model, sanctions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E58 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bubdps:331886 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Oliver Reiter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Neue Wege für die EU-Türkei-Wirtschaftsbeziehungen – Zollunion im Wandel? This publication is available in German language only. For a brief English summary see further below. Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. New paths for EU-Turkey economic relations – Custom Union in transition? This report analyses economic developments since the introduction of the EU–Turkey Customs Union and examines the geopolitical implications of its modernisation. While EU–Turkey trade has grown since 1996, the EU and Austria have lost market share in Turkey’s overall trade, particularly to Russia and China. Shifts are also visible within Europe trade is increasingly tilting toward Eastern European member states, while ties with traditional Western partners, especially the large economies, are gradually weakening. Spain is an exception, with trade volume increasing significantly due to its close political and economic ties with Turkey. Although the customs union has significantly promoted trade overall, its narrow scope and, in particular, existing non-tariff trade barriers continue to limit the export potential for the majority of EU member states. New US tariffs and the escalating transatlantic trade dispute are further complicating EU-Turkey trade relations. At the same time, the EU continues to conclude new FTAs, which intensifies the asymmetry of the customs union for Turkey and reinforces the need for modernisation. Yet the customs union remains politically contentious within the EU long-standing political disagreements, domestic turbulence in Turkey, and the stalled accession process have increasingly strained bilateral relations. Despite its growing geopolitical importance and the need to modernise the customs union, Turkey continues to be seen as an unstable partner. The arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and the crackdown on the main opposition party, the CHP, have further eroded the confidence of European partners, harming political relations as well as investor sentiment. In four scenarios, we assess how different modernisation options for the customs union would affect welfare and trade flows for the EU and Turkey. The results show that a comprehensive upgrade of the customs union could substantially increase EU-Turkey trade and deliver clear welfare gains for Turkey, but would only marginally cushion the EU from the negative effects of a trade conflict with the United States. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:ratpap:rpg:32 |
| By: | Tatyana Deryugina; Alminas Žaldokas; Anastassia Fedyk; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; James Hodson; Ilona Sologoub |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel, scalable method for assessing the quality of public procurement systems using standard administrative data. Our approach compares the distribution of procurement opportunities to the distribution of contract awards across firms. We first derive a simple theoretical benchmark that relates the expected distribution of contract value winning firms, measured as a Herfindahl–Hirschman index (HHI), to the distribution of auction values, measured as a respective HHI, and the number of winning firms. Significant deviations of winning firms’ HHI from this benchmark indicate potential governance failures such as corruption or unchecked collusion. Our method requires no subjective input, is transparent and reproducible, and allows for meaningful comparisons across countries, industry sectors, and over time. We use procurement data from Ukraine and EU member states in 2018–2021 to assess the performance of five large sectors. Results indicate that Ukraine’s procurement performance in four of the five sectors is comparable to many other European countries. However, Ukraine’s construction sector consistently displays the largest excess concentration among all countries considered, consistent with anecdotal evidence of corruption in this sector. Overall, with minimal data requirements, our method offers a practical tool for cross-sector and cross-country assessment of procurement systems. |
| JEL: | D73 L1 L78 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34479 |
| By: | Hildebrandt, Mireille |
| Abstract: | In this contribution, based on my Keynote at the Opening Night of CPDP2025, I briefly discuss how law institutes economic markets, how national law depends on international law and where geo-economics matters. I will then investigate how AI infrastructure’s need for massive amounts of electricity, water and rare earth minerals is transforming the playing field of international law, noting that the consolidation of Big Tech corporations has already impacted the political economy of law. Finally, I will discuss the ideology of artificial general intelligence (AGI), and propose that the European approach to legislating, governing and judging artificial intelligence (AI) as ‘a normal technology’ is a viable though contested alternative that must be consolidated, defended and further developed to survive geopolitical power grabs by the US, Russia and China. |
| Date: | 2025–11–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n95vd_v1 |
| By: | Dhaka, Surjeet Singh; Kyire, Samuel Kwabena Chaa; Asare, Jeffery Kofi |
| Abstract: | Climate change has become a global burden. In part, technological innovations (TIs), foreign direct investments (FDIs), and agricultural growth are potential factors contributing to overall emissions. However, empirical evidence on the interplay of these variables on CO2 emissions is rare in literature, particularly for BRICS countries, which is essential to investigate. In this quest, we sourced panel data obtained from World Development Indicators and FAO repositories. We found cross-sectional dependency in the panel data. Hence, the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (Pooled Mean Group regression) was used to analyse the short-run and long-run relationship. We found a long-run negative effect of TI on CO2 emissions, but no short-run effect was observed. Likewise, agricultural growth had positive significant effect on CO2 emissions only in the long-run. The Granger Causality test confirmed a causal relationship between agricultural growth, TI, and CO2 emissions in the BRICS countries. We recommend that BRICS countries should invest in innovative technologies, especially those that facilitate green production and renewable technologies to minimize greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, there is a need to embrace sustainable agricultural practices like tree-crop plantations, sustainable production technologies, and less-carbon-emitting inputs used to minimize the emissions from agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024–08–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iaae24:344316 |
| By: | Roudari, Soheil; Ahmadian- Yazdi, Farzaneh; Namazizadeh, Ehsan |
| Abstract: | Industrial metals, particularly copper, zinc, lead, and nickel, play a pivotal role not only in determining the pricing of manufactured goods but also in ensuring the economic security of nations. Analyzing the return interconnections of these metals under varying market conditions is crucial. This study employs the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) model over the period from January 1990 to May 2024 to examine the price fluctuations of these metals, which are essential inputs for Shahid Bahonar Copper Industries. The results indicate that zinc and lead are the primary risk transmitters in normal and bullish markets, whereas in bearish markets, zinc acts as the main transmitter and nickel as the primary receiver of volatility. Additionally, significant asymmetries in volatility transmission are observed between these metals during bullish and bearish conditions, with more pronounced effects during events such as the 2008 financial crisis (for copper and zinc) and the Russia-Ukraine war (for zinc and lead). This research also offers practical insights for industry managers, enabling them to determine optimal timing for purchasing raw materials and selling products based on the co-movement or divergence of metal prices. The proposed strategies focus on minimizing costs and maximizing profitability, providing a comprehensive framework for effectively managing volatility in metal markets. |
| Keywords: | Industrial metal, Risk management, Bullish and Bearish Markets, Cost management, Asymmetric TVP-VAR Model |
| JEL: | E44 G14 G32 |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126957 |
| By: | Serkan Arslanalp; Barry Eichengreen; Chima Simpson-Bell |
| Abstract: | We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent with our findings in our earlier papers. In addition we look to the future, pondering the potential implications of dollar-linked stablecoins, the expansion of the BRICS grouping of countries and their de- dollarization plans, the development of blockchain-based platforms such as Project mBridge for the direct exchange of central bank digital currencies, and questions about the dollar’s safe-haven status. |
| JEL: | F0 F33 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34478 |
| By: | Meryem Gökten; Richard Grieveson; Oliver Reiter |
| Abstract: | Abstract:Dieser Bericht analysiert die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungen der EU-Türkei-Zollunion und deren geopolitische Implikationen. Während das Handelsvolumen seit 1996 gestiegen ist, haben die EU und Österreich als Handelspartner an relativer Bedeutung verloren, insbesondere zugunsten Russlands und Chinas. Auch innerhalb Europas zeigen sich Verschiebungen: Der Handel verlagert sich zunehmend zugunsten osteuropäischer Mitgliedstaaten, während die Beziehungen zu traditionellen westeuropäischen Partnern, insbesondere den großen Volkswirtschaften, tendenziell rückläufig sind. Spanien bildet eine Ausnahme, wo sich das Handelsvolumen aufgrund enger politischer und wirtschaftlicher Beziehungen deutlich erhöhte. Zwar hat die Zollunion den Handel insgesamt deutlich gefördert, doch ihr enger Umfang sowie insbesondere bestehende nichttarifäre Handelshemmnisse schränken das Exportpotenzial für die Mehrheit der EU-Mitgliedstaaten weiterhin ein. Neue US-Zölle und der eskalierende transatlantische Handelskonflikt erschweren zusätzlich die bilateralen Handelsbeziehungen zwischen der EU und der Türkei. Gleichzeitig öffnen sie jedoch Spielräume für eine Modernisierung. Aber die Zollunion bleibt politisch umstritten: Im Laufe der Jahre haben politische Differenzen, innenpolitische Turbulenzen in der Türkei sowie der daraus resultierende stagnierende EU-Beitrittsprozess das bilaterale Verhältnis zunehmend belastet. Trotz ihrer wachsenden geopolitischen Bedeutung gilt die Türkei weiterhin als instabile Partnerin: Die Verhaftung des Istanbuler Bürgermeisters Ekrem İmamoğlu und die Repressionen gegen die größte Oppositionspartei CHP haben das Vertrauen europäischer Partner weiter geschwächt, mit negativen Folgen nicht nur für die politischen Beziehungen, sondern auch für das Vertrauen von Investor:innen. In vier Szenarien untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen möglicher Handelsentwicklungen auf Wohlfahrt und Handelsströme, insbesondere für die EU und die Türkei. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine tiefgreifende Modernisierung der Zollunion das Handelsvolumen zwischen der Türkei und der EU deutlich erhöhen und spürbare Wohlfahrtsgewinne für die Türkei erzielen, die negativen Effekte eines Handelskonflikts mit den USA für die EU aber nur sehr gering abmildern könnte. |
| Keywords: | Zollunion, EU-Türkei-Beziehungen, berechenbares allgemeines Gleichgewichtsmodell |
| JEL: | F14 F13 F50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:ecbook:y:2025:m:11:i:05 |