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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Joungho PARK (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This study examined the direction, key contents, and progress of Russia's Global South strategy in a multilateral (BRICS) and regional (Middle East, Africa, and Latin America) context, and sought to derive useful policy implications based on this analysis. In particular, the main purpose of the study was to examine the structural changes and reorganization of the world order since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, and to analyze the new foreign strategic direction of the Russian government amid the structural changes in the foreign strategic environment. |
| Keywords: | Russia; Global South; Russo-Ukrainian War |
| Date: | 2025–08–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022494 |
| By: | Tommaso Frattini; Giuseppe Pulito |
| Abstract: | The EU refugee population rose from about 1 million in 2014 to 7.8 million in 2024, driven by Syria and then the larger post-2022 Ukraine inflow. Germany remains the main host, but growth has been faster and uneven across countries, increasing pressure on asylum systems. |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:crmrep:2504 |
| By: | Christian Dustmann; Tommaso Frattini; Camilla Piovesan |
| Abstract: | Migration aspirations in Ukraine fell sharply after 2022, dropping from about one-third of adults pre-war to under 15% by 2023–2024. The decline is widespread, likely reflecting stronger attachment and recovery optimism, with Germany still the top destination among those who wish to leave. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:crmrep:2601 |
| By: | Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | It may seem like a distant memory now, but as of the mid-2000s, U.S. natural gas production had been flat for a decade, and the U.S. was importing liquefied natural gas (LNG), with plans to import much more. Then shale gas happened. Advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling caused U.S. natural gas production to increase significantly, and the U.S. went from being a net importer of natural gas to being the world's largest exporter. This paper calculates how much shale gas has saved U.S. natural gas consumers. Using price differences between the United States, Europe and Japan, we calculate that U.S. natural gas consumers have saved $3.1-$4.3 trillion between 2007 and 2025, equivalent to $164-$227 billion annually. Access to low-price U.S. natural gas has been particularly valuable during major supply shocks such as the war in Ukraine, and the benefits of shale gas have been experienced broadly across sectors and states. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35245 |
| By: | Bhattarai, Keshav; Adhikari, Ambika P. (Institute for Integrated Development Studies (IIDS)) |
| Abstract: | The United States dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency, established under the 1944 Bretton Woods system, has persisted despite the 1971 decoupling of the dollar from gold. Its liquidity, stability, and backing by the U.S. government provide strong financial security and advantages, including widespread global acceptance and relatively low borrowing costs. For these reasons, the U.S. dollar has dominated global markets for the past eight decades. However, rapidly emerging geopolitical and economic power shifts are increasingly challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar. In 2009, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa formed BRICS as a platform for collaboration and investment cooperation. BRICS, which has since expanded to include ten countries, is exploring alternatives to the U.S. dollar for international trade. These alternatives include trade in local currencies and the use of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). Western sanctions on China, Russia, Iran, and other countries, as well as China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative, have further accelerated efforts to reduce dependence on the dollar-based system. These emerging trends have mixed implications for South Asia. India is actively promoting rupee-based trade to strengthen regional commerce using the Indian Rupee, and several South Asian countries aspire to pursue similar approaches. The limited convertibility of the currencies of BRICS member nations makes a complete replacement of the U.S. dollar in international trade difficult. Nepal, in particular, may face substantial challenges because its economy relies heavily on remittances and imports, both of which remain closely tied to the global dollar-based financial system. |
| Date: | 2025–02–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s75q4_v1 |
| By: | Grudev, Lachezar |
| Abstract: | My paper claims that the current us policy is based on prejudices that originate in mercantilist thinking, which treats trade as a strategic zero-sum game. This thinking has dominated american academia since the 1970s through a fallacious application of game theory to explain competition between domestic and foreign companies. My paper demonstrates that competition means to compete for customers and that, in order to make profits, entrepreneurs should convince the customers that they can serve their needs in the best possible way. By maximizing their profits, entrepreneurs promote such a distribution of production among different countries that the production with the lowest opportunity costs is brought about. These profits and thus the allocation of resources can be affected by the central bank. By steering the interest rate, the central bank affects the burden of government expenditures and secures the satisfaction of the government's demand for capital. The continuous increase in demand for capital creates inflation, which does not allow those companies that do not have government contracts to maintain or renew their capital. The inability to substitute for new capital decreases labor productivity and thus increases labor costs. The stronger increase in prices compared to productivity is responsible for the permanent balance of payment deficits. The recent surge in gold price is an indication of this inflation, from which only russia benefits. So, the problem of the us balance of payments is not somewhere abroad, but exactly in her own house. |
| Keywords: | US Balance of Payments, Inflation, Gold Price, Strategic Trade Theory, Europe, Russia |
| JEL: | B12 B17 B25 F12 F13 F5 E3 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:341392 |
| By: | Rommin Adl; Peyton Williams |
| Abstract: | What happens when the strongest alliance member pressures a weaker member over territory and strategic control? We examine the Greenland sovereignty crisis as a stress test for LLM geopolitics, centered on the 2019-2026 U.S. push to acquire Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark. The crisis nests two collective-action problems: Arctic strategic control and whether NATO can enforce alliance norms against the dominant member. We develop three games (asymmetric coercion; a NATO assurance game with a critical-mass tipping point; a triadic extensive-form game with social preferences) and test them with a multi-agent simulation in which eight frontier LLMs play six geopolitical roles (United States, Denmark, Greenland, NATO, Russia, Canada) across 3, 604 completed games and 108, 120 action observations. Using inverse game theory, we recover each model's structural utility parameters (alpha, beta, gamma, delta, eta) for material self-interest, reciprocity, inequality aversion, norm respect, and commitment consistency. Three findings stand out. First, all eight models become more escalatory under coercion framing (four-action escalation rises from 10.7% to 28.6%). Second, Chinese-origin models show systematically different power-weight profiles from Western-origin models when playing the U.S. role. Third, peaceful US acquisition emerges in only 1.9% of clean games and only 3 of 8 frontier models ever achieve it, most prominently DeepSeek V3.2, which executes a stable five-round playbook through the metropole. Prompts emphasizing jus cogens and self-determination reduce escalation back near baseline in the English-only confirmatory sample; multilingual contrasts are reported as exploratory sensitivity checks. We position this as a structural benchmark for LLM geopolitical behavior, complementing action-frequency benchmarks. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.22841 |
| By: | Yuriy Gorodnichenko; Ilona Sologoub; Yuriy Fedyk |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of more than 7, 000 Ukrainians, we study how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We document a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: while most respondents view corruption as widespread and a major national problem, far fewer report direct exposure. Through a randomized controlled trial, we find that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruption but does not reduce overall corruption perceptions. Communicating the scale of corruption alone generates no significant effects. Information treatments have little effect on hypothetical or actual donations and volunteering, suggesting a limited pass-through from changed beliefs to prosocial action. Thus, while information interventions can strengthen institutional credibility, they alone are not enough to tangibly improve civic engagement or reduce perceptions of corruption. |
| JEL: | D73 O17 O52 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35251 |
| By: | Jeonghwan Yun (KOREA INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC POLICY (KIEP)) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the current challenges associated with refugee settlement and the social integration of refugees in Korea. Using the case of Ukrainian war evacuees in Korea, we quantitatively assess both their economic stability and their intentions to contribute to the local community. Additionally, we evaluate the perceptions of native residents toward refugees and migrants within these communities. The findings suggest that an organized, community-based approach to refugee settlement represents a viable policy alternative for achieving long-term social integration. |
| Keywords: | Refugee; Forced Migration; Russo-Ukrainian War; Social Integration |
| Date: | 2025–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:kiepwe:022495 |
| By: | Mustafin, Damir |
| Abstract: | Abstract. The purpose of this study is to comprehensively analyze the impact of regional online classifieds platforms on entrepreneurship development in Russian regions. This research is conducted through the lens of reducing transaction costs, stimulating employment, and formalizing business. The main findings of the study show that active use of online classifieds platforms reduces transaction costs by 23-37%, contributes to the creation of additional jobs, and encourages entrepreneurs to transition from the informal sector to the legal one. The findings confirm the significant role of digital platforms in transforming the regional entrepreneurial ecosystem and shaping new business models. Keywords: online classifieds, transaction costs, regional entrepreneurship, digitalization of the economy, business formalization, employment, e-commerce, small business. |
| Date: | 2026–02–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:75vxt_v1 |
| By: | Learmouth, Tom |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the broadening out of Japanese industrialisation into new sectors after the Russo-Japanese War. It does so by compiling new evidence to analyse the emergence of a rubber industry in Kobe – one which later swept global markets with rubber footwear in the inter-war period. Rubber manufacturing knowledge was seeded in Japan by British trading company H. & W. Greer, who established factories in Kobe for J. G. Ingram and Dunlop. In a process adhering closely to Steven Klepper’s heritage theory, workers who had acquired tacit rubber compounding knowledge from Ingram and Dunlop formed a string of Japanese spin-off firms which clustered around the two factories. This study emphasises the role of firm-specific foreign knowledge compatible with local conditions in latecomer development. It also improves our understanding of the role of British trading companies in the global spread of industrial knowledge during the first era of globalisation. |
| Keywords: | Japenese industrialisation; British trading companies; rubber industry; Kobe; H. & W. Greer; J. G. Ingram; Dunlop; heritage theory |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2026–05–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138071 |