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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Perrotta Berlin, Maria (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics); Lvovkskyi, Lev (BEROC) |
| Abstract: | In the wake of international sanctions, Russia has intensified its engagement in Africa, with potential ramifications for democracy, international relations, and conflict dynamics. This paper examines whether the expanding presence of Russian actors has influenced the allocation and composition of development aid from Western partners, particularly after the invasion of Ukraine. Given established evidence on the local socioeconomic and political effects of foreign aid, such shifts could shape public perceptions of Western development efforts and carry wider geopolitical and developmental implications. |
| Keywords: | foreign aid; Russia; World Bank |
| JEL: | F35 O12 O19 O55 P45 |
| Date: | 2025–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:hasite:0064 |
| By: | Itskhoki, Oleg; Mukhin, Dmitry |
| Abstract: | Trade wars and financial sanctions are again becoming an increasingly common part of the international economic landscape, and the dynamics of the exchange rate are often used in real time to evaluate the effectiveness of sanctions and policy responses. We show that sanctions limiting a country’s exports or freezing its assets depreciate the exchange rate, while sanctions limiting imports appreciate it, even when both types of policies have exactly the same effect on real allocations, including household welfare and government fiscal revenues. Beyond the direct effect from sanctions, increased precautionary savings in foreign currency also depreciate the exchange rate when they are not offset by the sale of official reserves or financial repression of foreign-currency savings. We show that the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 are quantitatively consistent with the combined effects of these forces calibrated to the observed sanctions and government policies. We evaluate the associated welfare, fiscal and inflationary consequences for both Russia and the coalition of Western countries. |
| Keywords: | trade sanctions; financial sanctions; financial repression; FX market |
| JEL: | E50 F31 F32 F41 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:129422 |
| By: | Tröster, Iryna; Tröster, Michael Friedrich; Yakymchuk, Iryna; Samofalova, Svitlana; Tyshkovets, Tatiana; Orel, Olha; Smyslova, Nataliia; Dudka, Uliana; Shapoval, Iryna |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi24:364760 |
| By: | Artikova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Khamidov, Imomjon; Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | The development of appropriate climate change makes people perceive it in a certain way, and is critical to formulating appropriate environmental policies and environmental education campaigns. In this article, the authors discuss the perception of climate change in four Central Asian countries — namely, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan —as well as the Caucasus region and Eastern Europe. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Perception, Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Caucasus |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 P48 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330338 |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | Using Ukraine as an example, this study explores how performance-based and ideational factors interact in shaping institutional trust under wartime conditions. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) is employed to analyse their joint presence in configurations associated with high and low levels of trust in state institutions. The findings suggest that trust is primarily shaped by performance indicators—economic satisfaction, perceived corruption, and personal safety—while ideational factors such as national identity, war-related ideologies, and democratic values play a secondary role. However, misalignment with dominant ideational narratives tend to exacerbate distrust during conflict, especially when institutional performance is perceived as weak. These results are used to argue that a divergence may appear between regime and institutional legitimacy in conflict-affected regions. |
| Keywords: | Institutional trust, interstate conflicts, legitimacy, Ukraine, fsQCA. |
| JEL: | C1 K4 P2 |
| Date: | 2025–06–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126536 |
| By: | Safiullin, Marat; Sharapov, Azat; Elshin, Leonid; Abdrakhmanova, Diliara; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Целью исследования является разработка методического инструментария идентификации критического импорта региона в разрезе ТНВЭД и построение на этой основе экономико-математических моделей, оценивающих его влияние на перспективы и устойчивость промышленного развития субъектов РФ. Основными результатами исследования являются идентифицированные критически значимые для промышленного сектора товарные номенклатуры, импортируемые из-за рубежа и формирующие основные угрозы устойчивому развитию экономики региона. Сформированный реестр критического импорта для Республики Татарстан в разрезе ТНВЭД позволил, опираясь на методы экономико-математического моделирования, определить сценарии промышленного развития субъекта с учетом возможных ограничений в поставках импорта. Установлено, что ограничения критического импорта в регион в диапазоне от 5% до 50% предопределяет риски замедления ИПП в Республике Татарстан от 1, 1 до 10, 9% соответственно в условиях отсутствия значимых бюджетных импульсов и адаптивных программ импортозамещения. The purpose of the study is to develop methodological tools for identifying critical imports of the region in the context of the FEA and to build on this basis economic and mathematical models assessing its impact on the prospects and sustainability of industrial development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The main results of the study are the identified commodity nomenclatures that are critically important for the industrial sector, imported from abroad and form the main threats to the sustainable development of the region's economy. The formed register of critical imports for the Republic of Tatarstan in the context of the FEA made it possible, based on the methods of economic and mathematical modeling, to determine scenarios for the industrial development of the subject, taking into account possible restrictions in the supply of imports. It has been established that restrictions on critical imports to the region in the range from 5% to 50% predetermines the risks of a slowdown in the IPR in the Republic of Tatarstan from 1.1% to 10.9%, respectively, in the absence of significant budgetary impulses and adaptive import substitution programs. |
| Keywords: | импортозависимость; критический импорт; промышленное развитие; регион; санкционное давление; реконфигурация международных цепей поставок; трансформация внешних рынков; пространственный анализ панельных данных; моделирование макроэкономических связей import dependence; critical imports; industrial development; region; sanctions pressure; reconfiguration of international supply chains; transformation of foreign markets; spatial analysis of panel data; modeling of macroeconomic relations |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126672 |
| By: | Kumar, Sant; Sharma, Ashok Kumar; Jain, Rajni; Yogi, R. K.; Kandpal, Ankita; Rai, Pramod Kumar |
| Abstract: | Edible oilseeds are the main source of protein and fat. Despite being one of the largest producers of oilseeds, India relies heavily on imports of edible oils to meet its domestic demand. In 2022-23, the country imported 16.5 million tons of edible oils, almost 57% of its domestic demand. Palm oil comprised 59% of the total imports, followed by crude soybean oil (23%), and sunflower oil (17%). Notably, there is a significant geographical concentration of their imports: palm oil is imported from Indonesia and Malaysia, soybean oil from Argentina and Brazil, and sunflower oil from Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina. Such a high dependence on imports and their geographical concentration makes the country highly vulnerable to global supply shocks due to pandemics and geopolitical tensions. Fluctuations in global prices may compel the government to reduce import tariffs and offer incentives to industry and importers. Furthermore, heavy reliance on imports adversely affects the country’s foreign reserves, and acts as a disincentive for farmers to expand area under oilseeds. |
| Keywords: | Crop Production/Industries, International Relations/Trade, Production Economics |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:icarpb:358875 |
| By: | Safiullin, Marat; Sharapov, Azat; Elshin, Leonid; Abdrakhmanova, Diliara; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Целью работы является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа. Методическую основу исследования определяет инструментарий идентификации критического импорта в рамках многоаспектной его аутентификации: объемы импорта, доля его участия в создании добавленной стоимости конечного продукта региона, страновая принадлежность. Объектом исследования выступают субъекты Приволжского федерального округа РФ. Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов ПФО, а особенности его влияния на перспективы устойчивого развития регионов Приволжского федерального округа. The aim of the work is to develop methodological tools for the identification of critically important commodity items imported from abroad. The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its multidimensional authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The subjects of the Volga Federal District of the Russian Federation are the object of the study. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Volga Federal District, and the specifics of its impact on the prospects for sustainable development of the regions of the Volga Federal District. |
| Keywords: | критический импорт, региональные экономические системы, устойчивость экономической динамики, санкционное давление, импортозависимость, импортозамещение, международные цепи поставок, трансформация внешних рынков critical imports, regional economic systems, stability of economic dynamics, sanctions pressure, import dependence, import substitution, international supply chains, transformation of foreign markets |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126671 |
| By: | Mangiavacchi, Lucia (University of Perugia); Piccoli, Luca (University of Trento); Stillman, Steven (Free University of Bozen/Bolzano) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the short-run impact of parental risky behaviors on multiple dimensions of child development using 30 years of data from a representative Russian longitudinal survey. We use factor analysis to construct a composite index of parental risky behaviors and health habits. The panel nature of the data allows us to implement individual and household fixed-effects models, which control for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity that might correlate with both parenting and child outcomes. We find that exposure to parental risky behaviors adversely affects children’s educational attainment (grade-for-age) and increases their propensity for risky behaviors, specifically smoking and drinking. Conversely, we find no significant impact on soft skills and only weak evidence of negative health outcomes. These impacts are more pronounced for older children and those in higher-income households. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational transmission, child development, risky behaviors, parental role model |
| JEL: | D1 I1 I2 I3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18242 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This study examines the evolution of Azerbaijan’s tourism sector in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the economic and policy consequences of prolonged land-border closures. Drawing on official statistics, international datasets, and comparative analysis with Georgia and Armenia, the paper investigates trends in inbound tourism, revenue generation, employment, and investment across 2016–2024. The findings reveal that while the sector has demonstrated signs of recovery—particularly through growth in higher-value and diversified visitor segments—Azerbaijan’s performance remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels and lags behind regional peers. The analysis identifies structural inefficiencies, methodological weaknesses in statistical reporting, and policy misalignments that constrain sectoral growth. It concludes that restrictive border and mobility policies are incompatible with Azerbaijan’s stated objectives of tourism-led diversification and sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, tourism policy, COVID-19 recovery, border closure, non-oil economy, South Caucasus, UNWTO standards, economic diversification |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:330399 |
| By: | Reinhold Heinlein (Bristol Business School, University of the West of England); Gabriella D. Legrenzi; Scott Marc Romeo Mahadeo (Department of Economics, University of Reading) |
| Abstract: | We empirically assess the interlinkages between sovereign risk, measured in terms of CDS spreads, and exchange rates for a sample of emerging markets. Our period of analysis includes episodes of severe stress, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukrainian War. Exploiting recent developments in local Gaussian partial correlation analysis and the associated nonlinear Granger causality tests, we are able to uncover linkages between assets across different segments of their joint distributions. Disentangling the effect of global factors, we show that the information on sovereign risk of other emerging economies is more relevant for the sovereign risk-exchange rate relationship than the state of developed markets risk for all countries in our sample and for all segments of the assets distribution. The same considerations apply for the movements of the US dollar relative to other currencies, where changes in emerging market currencies is of particular interest. Nonlinear Granger causality tests show bi- directional causality for most countries, confirming the importance of multiple transmission channels. Taken together, our results highlight the importance of understanding the interlinkages between sovereign risk and exchange rates across their entire joint asset returns distribution, which can guide policymakers in debt and currency management, with coordinated regional responses potentially proving more effective than individual national actions. In terms of portfolio management, our documented bidirectional causality offers valuable insights into predicting currency fluctuations based on sovereign risk, supporting hedging and investment strategies in periods of financial stress. |
| Keywords: | CDS, correlation, emerging markets, exchange rate, nonlinear causality, sovereign risk |
| JEL: | F31 G15 |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rdg:emxxdp:em-dp2025-03 |
| By: | Safiullin, Marat; Sharapov, Azat; Elshin, Leonid; Abdrakhmanova, Diliara; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Целью работы является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих взаимосвязь критического импорта и экономического роста регионов. Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов СЗФО, а также степень их влияния на промышленный рост субъектов Север-Западного федерального округа. The aim of the work is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District. |
| Keywords: | критический импорт, региональные экономические системы, устойчивость экономической динамики, промышленное производство, санкционное давление, пространственный анализ панельных данных, макроэкономические взаимосвязи critical imports, regional economic systems, sustainability of economic dynamics, industrial production, sanctions pressure, spatial analysis of panel data, macroeconomic interrelations |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126674 |
| By: | Amare, Mulubrhan; Omamo, Steven Were; Balana, Bedru; Andam, Kwaw S.; Nwagboso, Chibuzo; Iraoya, Augustine; Popoola, Olufemi; Loum, Serigne; Jawed, Khusro |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade Nigeria has experienced persistent food price inflation and substantial volatility, driven by domestic fragilities and global shocks. Three major shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), the Ukraine-Russia war (2022), and fuel subsidy reform (2023) – drove large and uneven price increases, with wheat prices rising by 63.3% and brown sorghum by 83.9%. Volatility was highest for wheat flour and groundnuts, with coefficients of variation of 0.53 and 0.51, reflecting Nigeria’s dependence on imports and sensitivity to external price shocks. This study utilizes high-frequency retail price data for eight staple food commodities across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory to analyze spatial and temporal food price dynamics, volatility patterns, and their welfare implications. To quantify welfare impacts, we use the International Food Policy Research Institute’s Food Price Simulator. Results show a 9.1 percentage point increase in food poverty (from 42.9% to 52.0%) and an 11.6-point rise in undernourishment (from 40.0% to 51.6%). Lower-income households reduced food expenditures by 12.7%, compared to 9.5% for higher-income groups, reflecting disproportionate exposure to food inflation. Northern zones had relatively lower prices for traditional grains due to more favorable agroecological conditions, while southern regions faced higher prices due to higher transport costs and limited local production. Conflict-affected northeastern states exhibited the highest volatility and food insecurity. We propose a three-pronged policy agenda: short-term safety nets and strategic reserves, medium-term reforms to strengthen market connectivity through improved transport and storage infrastructure, and long-term investments in climate-resilient, inclusive food systems. |
| Keywords: | food prices; food security; households; markets; policy innovation; price volatility; Nigeria; Africa; Western Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| Date: | 2025–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:177382 |
| By: | Rania Antonopoulos |
| Abstract: | In comparison to the policy responses in the aftermath of the 2008-9 global financial crisis, the reactions of EU policymakers to the combined shocks of the COVID-19 crisis and Ukraine-Russia conflict reveal a greater willingness to deploy public finance in support of the population. Yet, while this display of renewed solidarity is commendable, policymakers have a long way to go in building a more resilient and sustainable EU. A confrontation with long-standing "business as usual" EU rules and policies is necessary, and it is in this context that the job guarantee deserves serious consideration. Acting for the common purpose of reducing and eventually eliminating long-term unemployment would send a clear message that a Social Europe is possible. |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levyop:op_71 |
| By: | Elvis K. Ofori (Zhengzhou University, China); Simplice A. Asongu (Johannesburg, South Africa); Ernest B. Ali (Ekaterinburg, Russia); Bright A. Gyamfi (Istanbul, Turkey); Isaac Ahakwa (Hefei, China) |
| Abstract: | Since the industrial era, the selection of energy sources to facilitate economic advancement has been criticized because of the resulting ecological calamity. This has prompted the introduction of radical approaches such as ISO 14001, which tackles the drivers of pollution. Therefore, this study analyses the ISO 14001 - environment nexus from three distinct points of view BRICS, MINT, and G7 countries from 1999-2020. Also, our work fills an extant gap in assessing structural change and innovation's role in augmenting the relationship. The Driscoll and Kraay (DK) estimator is employed as an analytical tool for cross-sectional dependence and slope homogeneity, while the fixed effects approach provides sufficient robustness checks on the findings. While some outcomes vary per bloc, others are relatively similar across the three (3) blocs. That is: (1) ISO 14001 shows an abatement portfolio for only the G7 bloc, and the Full sample. (2) Structural change showed potential for abating carbon emissions in all blocs. (3) Technology led to an increase in Pollution in all blocs except for the MINT economy. (4) ICT in the form of mobile phones also help reduce carbon emissions in all three blocs except for their composite. (5) Renewable energy helps reduce carbon emission in all blocs except for G7. ISO 14001 shows the potential to encourage green growth. As a result, policymakers should work to enhance ISO 14001 certification, which might serve as a management tool to promote sustainable development. |
| Keywords: | ISO 14001, Sustainable development, Structural change, Technology, BRICSMINT, G7 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbm:wpaper:24/021 |
| By: | Dimitri B. Papadimitriou; Nikolaos Rodousakis; Giuliano T. Tajima; Gennaro Zezza |
| Abstract: | In this report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza investigate the determinants of the recent performance of the Greek economy. Despite geopolitical instability from the continuing Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza wars and higher-than-expected inflation rates, the country has managed to register the highest growth rates among eurozone member-states in 2021 and 2022. Yet the authors' projections, based on 2023Q3 official statistics, show that there will be a deceleration of GDP growth in the upcoming two years. This will be driven mainly by sluggish consumption demand due to the falling trend of real wages and persistent higher imported inflation, coupled with the inability of the government to deploy NGEU funds and a significant loss of production due to climate damage from floods and fires. These dynamics will likely continue the brain drain of skilled workers, who opt to move abroad for better employment opportunities. The overreliance of the Greek economy on tourism is also questioned, given the dependency on foreign industrial inputs. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:levysa:sa_2_24 |