|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Amani, Ramin; Heshmati, Almas |
| Abstract: | This study investigates whether armed conflict deteriorates or reinvents institutional quality and function at the subnational level, employing a spatial panel econometric approach to examine Ukraine and Russia within the broader Eurasian political economy from 2010 to 2024. Using the Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) with region and time fixed effects, we analyze how both direct conflict exposure and spatial spillovers from neighboring regions affect institutional quality, measured through government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. The results reveal three key findings. First, direct conflict exposure significantly degrades institutional quality, confirming that localized violence erodes governance capacity. Second, conflict generates substantial negative spatial spillovers, whereby instability in one region transmits institutional strain to neighboring areas through population displacement, economic disruption, and psychological contagion. Third, institutional design conditions these effects: Ukraine's decentralized governance attenuates both direct impacts and spatial spillovers, while Russia's centralized architecture amplifies vulnerability. These findings demonstrate that the institutional consequences of war are both direct and spatially diffuse, with decentralization serving as a partial buffer against conflict-induced institutional degradation. The results carry important implications for post-conflict reconstruction strategies across Eurasia, emphasizing the need for regional approaches to governance strengthening and investment in local administrative capacity. |
| Keywords: | Spatial Econometrics, Institutional Quality, Armed Conflict, Centralization, Decentralization, Ukraine, Russia |
| JEL: | C23 D74 H77 P48 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1852 |
| By: | Ballbach, Eric J. |
| Abstract: | Lange galt Nordkorea vor allem als regionales Sicherheitsproblem in Ostasien. Mittlerweile jedoch ist das Regime in Pjöngjang zu einem Akteur geworden, der überregionale Konflikte wie Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine aktiv beeinflusst und dessen aggressive Cyberaktivitäten sich unmittelbar auf Europas Sicherheit auswirken. Die europäische Nordkorea-Politik indes orientiert sich vielfach an strategischen Annahmen, die der veränderten Rolle des Landes nicht mehr gerecht werden. Europa muss daher die von Nordkorea ausgehenden Bedrohungen neu bewerten - und seine Antworten darauf entsprechend anpassen. Denn es könnte sich als Fehler mit hohen politischen Kosten erweisen, diese Gefahr zu ignorieren. |
| Keywords: | Demokratische Volksrepublik Korea (DVRK), russischer Krieg gegen die Ukraine, russisch-nordkoreanische Kooperation, Cyberoperationen, Advanced-Persistent-Threat-Gruppen, Kryptowährungen, Cyberkriminalität, Cyberspionage, IT-Fachkräfte, Europäische Union, Indo-Pazifik-Strategie der EU, Nordkorea-Strategie der EU |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:344273 |
| By: | Juraeva, Feruza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod; Dolijonova, Zarnigor |
| Abstract: | Climate change is increasingly a major driver of economic and environmental difficulties, creating more and more incentives for people to move; the literature has already analysed the environmental degradation and migration relationships. Despite many environmental problems, such as high levels of air pollution, rising temperatures, and water scarcity, empirical evidence from Central Asia and the Caucasus remains limited. The study empirically analyses the relationships between environmental changes and migration. It develops a multidimensional index using structural equation modelling (SEM) based on the fourth round of the Life in Transition Survey. The index is derived from the latent variables such as environmental concern, perceived environmental stress, and willingness to prevent environmental degradation through a two-step latent variable modelling approach. We also estimate additional latent variables, such as life satisfaction, institutional trust, economic insecurity, and migration intentions, are also estimated using maximum likelihood. Regression results confirm that subjective environmental degradation raises migration intentions in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, while no statistically significant relationship is found in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Migration, Structural Equation Modeling, Central Asia, Caucasus, Environmental Perception |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344301 |
| By: | Ambre Maucorps (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | The report outlines the stakes and opportunities for Ukraine to achieve EU accession and post-war reconstruction simultaneously, focusing on regional development and territorial cohesion. In short, it lays out a strategic vision for Ukraine’s regional development policy that goes beyond mere administrative reform and addresses core issues of territorial equity, economic recovery, and national security. In doing so, the paper tackles fundamental questions of policy instruments tailored to differentiated territorial realities, capacities of local communities, coordination of policy interventions, and stable financing. It argues that Ukrainian policymakers involved in the design, implementation, and monitoring of an EU-compatible, crisis-resilient regional development policy will have to home in on institutional quality, capacity-building, strong and sustainable financing mechanisms, asymmetric devolution, multi-level coordination, citizen involvement, and evidence-based policymaking. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, regional development, Cohesion Policy, EU accession, post-war reconstruction, decentralisation, devolution, capacity building, local communities |
| JEL: | R58 O43 H72 H56 |
| Date: | 2026–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:114 |
| By: | Adrians, Helge |
| Abstract: | Wie der Konflikt in der Straße von Hormus verdeutlicht, fehlt es westlichen Streitkräften an Fähigkeiten, mobile Abschussvorrichtungen für Anti-Schiffs-Flugkörper und -drohnen vor deren Start zu finden und zu bekämpfen. Mit entsprechenden landgestützten Systemen kontrolliert der Iran hauptsächlich den Verkehr durch die Meerenge. Da sich die US-Regierung scheut, mit Bodentruppen dagegen vorzugehen, konzentriert sie sich darauf, zum einen Elemente der iranischen Küstenverteidigung wie Radarstationen zu bombardieren und zum anderen den Schutz von Handelsschiffen zu gewährleisten. Auf diese Weise hat sich die Bedrohung durch landgestützte Anti-Schiffs-Waffen aber nicht abschwächen lassen. Um deren Einsatz zu verhindern - sei es durch Zerstörung oder ihre Androhung -, sind Fähigkeiten auf gegnerischem Boden nötig. Eine Möglichkeit dafür bilden autonome Landsysteme, wie sich im Kampf der Ukraine gegen die russische Vollinvasion beobachten lässt. Nato-Staaten wie Deutschland sollten diese Erfahrungen aufnehmen und autonome Landsysteme stärker in Verfahren zur Bekämpfung gegnerischer Stellungen an Küsten integrieren. |
| Keywords: | Iran-Krieg, Straße von Hormus, Ostsee, internationale Schifffahrt, Anti-Schiffs-Flugkörper und -drohnen, Seezielbekämpfung, transporter erector launcher (TEL), Systemverbünde, sensor-to-shooter (S2S), anti-access/area denial (A2/AD), multi-domain operations (MDO), Counter-AD |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:344269 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | The outbreak of the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have had major consequences for a large number of global commodity markets. While media attention has understandably focused on oil and natural gas, as well as on aluminum – owing to the strong dependence of that metal’s supply on energy prices – sulfur, like helium, ethylene, propylene, or urea, has also been caught up in the fallout of this conflict. Far from being a marginal commodity, it is essential to the production of nickel and copper, as well as of fertilizers. Qatar, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are among the world’s leading sulfur exporters. Against this difficult backdrop, China has banned exports of sulfuric acid in order to safeguard domestic supply – even though it is the world’s leading supplier – while Russia has sharply restricted its sales to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union since November 1, 2025. Combined with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, these measures have led to a near-doubling of sulfur and acid prices. If the conflict continues, a shortage could have serious consequences worldwide, particularly for food security. As the world’s largest exporter of phosphate fertilizers and, consequently, heavily dependent on this input, Morocco appears directly exposed, despite a diversification of its sulfur imports toward Kazakhstan and a firm strategy of securing/producing the resource domestically across the various stages of the value chain. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb51_26_2 |
| By: | Hung Q. Tran |
| Abstract: | Various competing cross-border payment networks have become vehicles for geopolitical competition. As tensions have risen, many countries want to secure access to cross-border payment systems by joining with like-minded countries to form interoperable networks, either via tokenization or Instant Payment Systems (IPSs). Three major projects are under development, serving the strategic interests of the US, China and the Rest of the World—corresponding to the three trading spheres taking shape in the world trade architecture. Cross-border payment networks have been transformed from financial infrastructures into vehicles for geopolitical competition. This process has been driven by major powers like China, Russia and others striving to enhance their economic resilience and national security by finding ways to reduce reliance on the current US dollar-based international financial and payment system. Recently, those efforts have gathered momentum as the US has increasingly used access to the dollar-based payment system (mainly via the SWIFT financial messaging network) as a statecraft tool to pursue its national strategic objectives. Concretely, groups of neighboring or like-minded countries have collaborated on projects to test interoperable networks enabling cross-border payments among themselves, preferably using their own currencies instead of relying on the dollar. As part of this trend, China has launched its Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) and Russia its System for the Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS)—as alternatives to SWIFT. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb52_26 |
| By: | Hermann, Ralf; Kress, Hannelore; Olesen, Julia |
| Abstract: | As we navigate the complexities of globalisation and technological advancement, data has become a critical tool for driving innovation and enhancing vocational education and training (VET) systems. By enabling policymakers, educators, and researchers to make informed decisions, data not only addresses the immediate needs of learners but also plays a pivotal role in shaping the future success of VET. This volume brings together a wealth of global expertise. Featuring 32 articles from a diverse array of countries, this collection offers invaluable insights into the evolving landscape of VET data management and reporting, as well as digital tools and artificial intelligence in VET. Contributors from countries as varied as Austria, Brazil, China, Costa Rica, Germany, Ghana, Israel, Myanmar, South Africa, South Korea, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United States of America, Uzbekistan, Vietnam share their experiences and expertise, providing a comprehensive look at the international dimensions of VET data. |
| Keywords: | Berichterstattung, Berufsbildungsforschung, Berufsbildungspolitik, Bildungsberichterstattung, Bildungsforschung, Bildungsmonitoring, BrasilienBundesrepublik Deutschland, China, Costa Rica, Datenanalyse, Datenmanagement, Digitalisierung, Evidenz, Forschungsumsetzung, GhanaIndikatoren, Internationale Zusammenarbeit, internationaler Vergleich, Israel, Künstliche Intelligenz, Myanmar, Schweiz, Südafrika, SüdkoreaTransformation, Ukraine, USA, Usbekistan, Vereinigte Arabische Emirate, Vietnam, Wissenstransfer, Österreich |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bibbfb:344346 |
| By: | Kristina Butaeva; Steven N. Durlauf; Dmitry Rudenko |
| Abstract: | This chapter documents trends in income and inequality in Russia from the collapse of the Soviet Union through 2025, drawing on official statistics, the existing literature, and household survey microdata. It also reviews evidence on intergenerational mobility. While there is a consensus that inequality dramatically increased during the 1990s, its post-2000 trajectory is contested. Initial household survey studies usually found a decline, whereas official statistics reported a comparatively stable Gini coefficient. Our analysis of Russia's major household surveys, harmonized using common measurement conventions, aligns with the survey-based literature, indicating that the Gini coefficient generally fell from approximately 0.45–0.48 in the early 2000s to 0.29–0.38 in the early 2020s. We further find that most inequality arises within rather than between regions, urban and rural areas, and education and occupation groups. Household labor-market attachment, region, and household composition account for the largest shares of the explained variance in log income. The large literature on inequality is complemented by a small literature on intergenerational mobility. Here, the various studies on intergenerational dynamics in education, occupation, and income across post-Soviet cohorts conclude that, even against the background of dramatic structural changes, family background remains strongly associated with children’s outcomes. |
| JEL: | D31 I24 P20 |
| Date: | 2026–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35965 |
| By: | Sadullayev, Nordirbek; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between social capital and life satisfaction across seven post Soviet countries in Central Asia and the Caucasus using data from LiTS IV. Social capital is measured through institutional trust, interpersonal trust, and social norms. The empirical analysis combines Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Structural Equation Modelling(SEM), Latent Profile Analysis(LPA), and nearest-neighbour matching. The results reveal substantial cross-country heterogeneity in both the structure of social capital and its association with life satisfaction. Positive relationships are observed in several countries, while the contribution of individual social capital dimensions differs across national contexts. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:344266 |
| By: | Hung Q. Tran |
| Abstract: | Various competing cross-border payment networks have become vehicles for geopolitical competition. As tensions have risen, many countries want to secure access to cross-border payment systems by joining with like-minded countries to form interoperable networks, either via tokenization or Instant Payment Systems (IPSs). Three major projects are under development, serving the strategic interests of the US, China and the Rest of the World—corresponding to the three trading spheres taking shape in the world trade architecture. Cross-border payment networks have been transformed from financial infrastructures into vehicles for geopolitical competition. This process has been driven by major powers like China, Russia and others striving to enhance their economic resilience and national security by finding ways to reduce reliance on the current US dollar-based international financial and payment system. Recently, those efforts have gathered momentum as the US has increasingly used access to the dollar-based payment system (mainly via the SWIFT financial messaging network) as a statecraft tool to pursue its national strategic objectives. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pb52_26 |
| By: | Yves Jégourel |
| Abstract: | Le déclenchement de la Guerre en Iran et le blocage du détroit d’Ormuz ont eu des conséquences majeures sur un grand nombre de marchés mondiaux de matières premières. Si l’attention médiatique s’est logiquement portée sur le pétrole et le gaz naturel, ainsi que sur l’aluminium, en raison de la forte dépendance de l’offre de ce métal aux prix de l’énergie, le soufre, comme l’hélium, l’éthylène, le propylène ou l’urée, a également été pris dans les rets de ce conflit. Loin d’être une matière première anecdotique, il est indispensable à la production de nickel et de cuivre, mais également d’engrais. Le Qatar, l’Iran et l’Arabie saoudite comptent parmi les grands pays exportateurs de soufre. Dans ce contexte difficile, la Chine a interdit l’exportation d’acide sulfurique pour préserver les approvisionnements nationaux, alors qu’elle en est le premier fournisseur mondial, tandis que la Russie a très fortement limité ses ventes aux pays non-membres de l’Union économique eurasiatique depuis le 1er novembre 2025. Conjuguées à la fermeture du détroit d’Ormuz, ces mesures ont conduit à quasi-doublement des prix du soufre et de l’acide. Si le conflit venait à perdurer, les conséquences d’une pénurie pourraient être majeures à l’échelle mondiale, notamment en matière de sécurité alimentaire. Plus grand pays exportateur d’engrais phosphatés et, en conséquence, largement dépendant de cet intrant, le Maroc apparaît directement exposé, malgré une diversification de ses importations de soufre en faveur du Kazakhstan et une stratégie affirmée de sécurisation/production de la ressource à l’échelle nationale, et ce, aux différents échelons de la chaîne de valeur. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbecon:pb51_26 |