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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Ikani, Nikki (Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs) |
| Abstract: | Intelligence warning failures are too often viewed in binary: Either intelligence succeeded or it failed. In reality, often only segments of the warning chain collapse while others operate well. This Outlook paper treats warning success as a spectrum rather than as a pass/fail test in a new framework for warning performance. It illustrates the use through three recent case studies: the fall of Kabul (2021), Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (2022) and the Niger coup (2023). The decisive shortfall across all three cases was the failure to reconcile divergent NATO member state views into an operational consensus within NATO. There are practical solutions for integrating NATO capabilities to institutionalize rapid after-action reviews, conduct periodic divergence drill exercises, prepare contingency packages and further embed red team analyses. |
| Date: | 2026–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ch3x6_v1 |
| By: | Damgaard, Paulus; Toubøl, Jonas (University of Copenhagen); Høgenhaven, Lærke |
| Abstract: | In the context of heightened geopolitical tensions, European societies increasingly frame private crisis preparedness as integral to societal resilience. Once viewed as antisocial survivalists, preppers now offer insight into civil society’s role in prepar-edness. Drawing on a netnographic study of one of Denmark’s largest Facebook prepper groups (2015-2024), this article examines how the group members per-ceive responsibility for crisis preparedness across four periods: before COVID-19, during the pandemic, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and following the Danish government’s 2024 appeal for household preparedness. Findings reveal a dominant individualistic framing in stable times, but a shift towards collective understandings of responsibility following official communication during crises. The article con-tributes to sociological research on crisis preparedness by demonstrating how per-ceptions of crisis contexts and state communication shape preppers’ responsibility frames, challenging static portrayals of preppers as antisocial and highlighting how individualised practices of preparedness can evolve into collective orientations that complement state capacity. |
| Date: | 2026–09–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sxgfm_v1 |
| By: | Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Cobos-Cabral, Francisco (CIRCLE, Lund University); Horvat, Andrej (U-LEAD with Europe - Ukraine Local Empowerment, Accountability and Development Programme at GIZ) |
| Abstract: | Local agency on the edge relates to situations that are particularly harsh and difficult, places where regional development is most needed but also most difficult to achieve. We study the role and relevance of local agency in such situations, as well as enabling and hindering conditions for local agency to emerge. We do this in two peripheral municipalities in Ukraine that were attacked and temporarily occupied by Russian forces but have shown a high degree of resilience. Theoretically, we propose a broad conception of development, which includes human wellbeing and social resilience. Such a broad conception also necessitates a more comprehensive understanding of local agency underpinning development, including social and technological innovation, institutional entrepreneurship and place-based leadership. The cases provide evidence for the potential development impact of bottom-up initiatives, which may unfold if local actors are sufficiently empowered. In the context of the study, a governance reform played an important role comprising decentralisation and municipal amalgamation in the wider context of a mindset change in favour of approximation towards the European Union. Local actors changed institutions, leading to better governance and participation from the citizens. Empowerment of local actors allowed for the successful implementation of multiple projects impacting citizens' wellbeing, improving health and education institutions, as well as cultural, sports and recreation facilities. These changes opened opportunities for increased entrepreneurial activity, contributing towards employment and tax revenue. Moreover, resilience to the Russian invasion rested on improved governance, relationships, citizen engagement, and capacities for project management developed before the war. |
| Keywords: | local agency; regional development; human wellbeing; social resilience |
| JEL: | I31 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2025_005 |
| By: | Yannis Kastis; Hillary Vipond |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the organization of production shapes the adoption of new technologies. We examine a shift in production organization in English tailoring induced by the arrival of Jewish tailors fleeing pogroms in the Russian Empire between 1881 and 1905. When Jewish immigrant tailors arrived in England, native tailors were mostly self-employed and used sewing machines, introduced in the 1860s, to raise individual productivity. In Russia, where sewing machines were largely unavailable to them, Jewish tailors worked in ready-to-wear production, which involved a modular approach and greater collaboration within workshops. Upon arriving in England, they combined the sewing machines with their organizational practice to introduce the so-called "Jewish task system", which relied on an extensive division of labor and enabled clothing production to scale. Combining original data on production tasks with firm-level data, and using immigrant settlement patterns predating the introduction of the sewing machine as an instrument, we show that immigrant arrivals induced native tailors to reorganize production toward this system, accelerating both the diffusion of the sewing machine and England's transition to mass-produced clothing. Our findings show that organizing production efficiently around a new technology is a prerequisite for its diffusion. |
| Keywords: | organization of production, technology adoption, immigration |
| JEL: | L23 O33 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26253 |
| By: | José-Luis Cruz; Klaus Desmet; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that plays a key role in regulating global climate, including moderating temperatures in Europe and the North Atlantic. Its potential collapse due to global warming is widely considered one of the more likely climate tipping points. This paper examines the economic implications of such a collapse using a dynamic spatially integrated assessment model (S-IAM) of the world economy. Scandinavia and parts of Russia are predicted to experience significant losses in GDP and welfare, while southern Europe, northern Africa, and Brazil benefit from slightly colder temperatures. S-IAMs generally predict that global warming is especially harmful to low-income regions, but an AMOC collapse could mitigate some of these negative impacts in parts of the developing world while instead harming some of the more advanced economies. This lowers spatial inequality, but global welfare drops by 1.9% by 2200 under an intermediate-emissions scenario. |
| JEL: | F18 F64 O11 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35811 |
| By: | José-Luis Cruz (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Klaus Desmet (Department of Economics and Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, NBER and CEPR); Esteban Rossi-Hansberg (Department of Economics, University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a system of ocean currents that plays a key role in regulating global climate, including moderating temperatures in Europe and the North Atlantic. Its potential collapse due to global warming is widely considered one of the more likely climate tipping points. This paper examines the economic implications of such a collapse using a dynamic spatially integrated assessment model (S-IAM) of the world economy. Scandinavia and parts of Russia are predicted to experience significant losses in GDP and welfare, while southern Europe, northern Africa, and Brazil benefit from slightly colder temperatures. S-IAMs generally predict that global warming is especially harmful to low-income regions, but an AMOC collapse could mitigate some of these negative impacts in parts of the developing world while instead harming some of the more advanced economies. This lowers spatial inequality, but global welfare drops by 1.9% by 2200 under an intermediate-emissions scenario. |
| Keywords: | climate tipping points, AMOC, spatially integrated assessment models, geography, development |
| JEL: | F18 F64 O11 Q54 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-122 |