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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Vicente Rios; Izaskun Barba; Lisa Gianmoena |
| Abstract: | Using a balanced panel of 129 countries from 2000 to 2024, we estimate the macroeconomic costs of sanctions on Russia. To that end, we employ a novel two-wave common-correlated-effects imputation design that separates the 2014 sanctions from the 2022 escalation and accounts for heterogeneous exposure to global shocks. We find the main boomerang effect of these sanctions operates through prices rather than output. Specifically, relative to 2019-2021, we find a significant post-2022 increase in prices among sanctioning countries that remains robust under alternative counterfactuals, reference windows, and inference procedures. Conversely, we find no robust evidence of aggregate GDP-per-capita losses. |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2609.12387 |
| By: | Schröder, Maximilian |
| Abstract: | Macroeconomic policy increasingly requires assessments of risk rather than point forecasts alone. This paper develops a framework to compute impulse responses for scenario probabilities and the full predictive distribution of macroeconomic outcomes. The approach combines a regime-dependent mixture VAR with endogenous state probabilities and heteroskedastic shock identification, complemented by sparse sign and narrative restrictions. Applied to the euro area and U.S., the framework addresses a central policy question following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war: do geopolitical shocks imply a return to the risk profile observed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or is this time different? Results show that shocks differ not only in their effects on expected outcomes, but also in how they reshape scenario probabilities, tail risks, and transitions into high-volatility states. JEL Classification: C11, C32, C34, C53, E37 |
| Keywords: | Bayesian econometrics, density forecasting, macroeconomic risks, scenario analysis, state-dependent transmission |
| Date: | 2026–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263290 |
| By: | Mihaela Daciana Natea (UMFST - George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Targu Mures); Maria Costea (Romanian Academy); Simion Costea (UMFST - George Emil Palade University of Medicine, Pharmacy, Science and Technology of Targu Mures, GGI - GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSTITUTE BRUSSELS) |
| Abstract: | At a time when Europe, its neighbours, and its partners are simultaneously being tested by technological transformations, geopolitical uncertainties, and tensions surrounding historical memory, ¹ this special volume of L'Europe Unie / United Europe seeks to offer a space for reflection that transcends disciplinary boundaries. Continuing the excellent analyses developed in a whole series of L'Europe Unie, this volume brings together contributions united by the same high level of scholarly ambition: to understand Europe not only through its structures and norms, but also through its vulnerabilities, its ambitions, and its historical depth. The studies collected here—whether they address the new frontiers of artificial intelligence, the challenges of digital governance, the fragilities of contemporary democracy, international relations, or the strategic legacies of the nineteenth century—converge on an essential idea: European integration can only be understood at the intersection of critical reason, political responsibility, and fidelity to the lessons of the past. These contributions, all of high scientific quality, intrinsically aim to stimulate reflection on Europe's future by addressing major challenges such as defence, competitiveness, political and social integration, and strategic autonomy. They examine the structural reforms required for a more resilient and stronger Union in the face of an unstable world, involving not only institutions but also citizens, businesses, and civil society. This volume thus seeks to reaffirm that the study of Europe requires a dual vigilance: intellectual vigilance, in response to the complexity of reality; and civic vigilance, in the face of threats weighing on its foundational values. Through diverse analyses and complementary perspectives, the authors contribute to nurturing this vigilance, which is indispensable to any sustainable European ambition. The present volume testifies to L'Europe Unie's firm openness towards a truly international and interdisciplinary scientific space, bringing together scholars from a wide range of academic traditions. This edition includes contributions from 11 countries: ⁴ Estonia (Akvilė Svidraitė, Tallinn University of Technology); Georgia (Mariam Makhniashvili, Economic Policy Research Center, Tbilisi); Italy (Francesca Buiatti, University of Udine); Austria / Slovenia (Prof. Dr. Anis H. Bajrektarevic, IFIMES, Vienna / Ljubljana); Colombia (Valentina Caballero, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá); France (Raluca Anica Onufreiciuc, Université Paris–Panthéon-Assas; Dr Hedi Saidi, Université Catholique de Lille); Romania (Dr Raul Felix Hodoș, Bucharest University of Economic Studies; Crina Malcoci, UMFST; Dr Raluca Șandru and Dr Silvia Mișu, Universities of Bucharest and Cluj; Ilie Florin Ceușan, UMFST; Dr Luiza-Maria Filimon and Dr Mihaela Ivănescu, Ovidius University of Constanța; Dr Aurel Lazăr, UMFST; Dr Maria Costea, Romanian Academy; Dr Simion Costea, UMFST); Tunisia (Dr Mourad Mhenni; Dr Adel Bouzid, University of Sousse). This geographical diversity is impressive: it ensures the confrontation of perspectives, methodological exchange, and mutual enrichment of approaches. It also demonstrates the journal's capacity to attract well-established and internationally recognised scholars, published in high-impact journals (Scopus, Web of Science, ERIH PLUS, EBSCO, DOAJ, etc.), as well as young researchers engaged in cutting-edge research. This articulation between established excellence and generational renewal constitutes one of the major strengths of this volume. The quality and structure of the volume—combining legal analysis, historical reflection, geopolitical study, and socio-anthropological approaches—attest to a constant scientific rigour. In doing so, the scientific identity of L'Europe Unie is further consolidated: an open, demanding research space, deeply rooted in the contemporary debates shaping the future of Europe and its partners. ¹ Simion Costea (ed.), History and Memories: Between Knowledge, Interpretations and Transmission. International Conference in Homage to Professor Hedi Saidi. Book of Abstracts / Livre des résumés, University of Sousse (Tunisia), 17–19 April 2025, coordinated by Hafedh Ben Hassine, Adel Bouzid, Manel Kanzali, and Sofiene Ben Moussa (Cluj-Napoca: Napoca Star, 2025). ² This special volume is part of a series that also includes: Natea, Mihaela Daciana; Costea, Simion (eds.), The EU Foreign and Security Dilemmas in a Challenging World (L'Europe Unie / United Europe, Paris, 19/2023, special volume), Paris–Cluj-Napoca: Napoca Star, 2023. Natea, Mihaela Daciana; Costea, Simion (eds.), EU Law and Politics at the Crossroads: Navigating the Complexities of AI, Digitalization, Data Protection, Security, and Radicalization (L'Europe Unie / United Europe, Paris, 20/2023, special volume), Paris–Cluj-Napoca: Napoca Star, 2023. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15182658. Natea, Mihaela Daciana; Costea, Simion (eds.), EU and Its Neighbours: Resilience and Multicultural Harmony (L'Europe Unie / United Europe, Paris, 21/2024, special volume), Paris–Cluj-Napoca: Napoca Star, 2024. Natea, Mihaela Daciana; Costea, Simion (eds.), EU Enlargement and Resilience: Legal and Economic Reforms on Georgia's Path to Integration (L'Europe Unie / United Europe, 22/2025, special volume), Paris–Cluj-Napoca: Napoca Star, 2025. ³ See also: Natea, Mihaela Daciana; Costea, Maria; Costea, Simion, EU Security and Multicultural Societies: Dealing with a Russian Empire Revival (Paris: L'Harmattan, 2024). Costea, Maria; Costea, Simion, "Ukraine between the EU and the Eurasian Regional Project in 2013, " Transylvanian Review, Vol. XXIV, Supplement no. 1 (2015): 113–131. Simion Costea, "EU–Ukraine Relations and the Eastern Partnership: Challenges, Progress and Potential, " European Foreign Affairs Review 16, no. 2 (2011): 259–276. L'Europe Unie / United Europe, no. 23/2025 10.5281/zenodo.17969062 |
| Keywords: | European communities, European commission, European People, European union, European standard, European Union, European parliament, European Union/history, Internal european market, European People/education, European People/history, Eastern European People, Contemporary history, History, 20th Century, Law, International Law, Criminal Law, International law, Regional law, Public law, Law Enforcement, Comparative law, Artificial intelligence, Artificial Intelligence, GDPR, International relations, International watercourse, International convention, International transaction, International politics, International safety, International standardisation, International Agencies, International Cooperation, International assistance, International balance, International conflict, International agreement, International competitiveness, International distribution, International harmonisation, Political sciences, Political policies, Political counselling, Political party, Political power, Political philosophy, Political communication, Political violence, Political economy, Political doctrine, Political ecology, Political transitions, Political Activism, Political Systems, Political geography, Political organisation, Political ideology, Political Activism/trends, Political Systems/classification, Political Systems/economics, Economy, Circular economy, National economy, Green economy, Sustainable economy, Market economy, Resource-efficient economy, Economic Factors, Economic competition, Economic incentive, Economic structure, Human Migration, Internal migration, Human migration, Emigration and Immigration, Islam, Islam/psychology, Islam/history, History of islam, Islamic schools, Africa, North africa, African People, Arab World, Arab World/history, Arabs, Arabs/history, Arabs/legislation, jurisprudence, Europe, Eastern europe, Western europe, Technology, Digital Technology, Technology Transfer, Biomedical Technology, Indigenous technology, Process technology, Information Technology, Disruptive Technology, Technology Addiction, Technology/classification, Hispanic or Latino, Hispanic or Latino/classification, Hispanic or Latino/education, Hispanic or Latino/history, Hispanic or Latino/legislation &, amp, South america, North america, Americas, Central america, Central American People, South American People, Colombia, Austria, Estonia, Russia, Romania, Tunisia, Indigenous Peoples, Indigenous knowledge, Indigenous Peoples/psychology, Indigenous Peoples/history, Indigenous Peoples/classification, Indigenous Peoples/education, War, War victim, War Exposure, War Crimes, Crimean War, Peace, Hybrid War, EU, Eu council, Human Rights, Human Experimentation, Human biology, Human health, Human physiology, Human body, Human rights, Human Genetics, Human Body, Rights, Civil Rights, Patient Rights, Women's Rights, Economic rights, Regional human rights, Human Rights/history, Human Rights/classification, Women's Rights/classification, United Nations, United Nations/standards, United Nations/ethics, United Nations/history, United Nations/trends, National Socialism, Bibliography, National, France |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05438742 |
| By: | Elliot Aurissergues (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial a connu de profondes mutations ces dernières années. Le premier facteur est le choc chinois. L'industrie chinoise a poursuivi sa montée en gamme, remettant en cause les positions des entreprises occidentales sur un nombre croissant de marchés, y compris dans des secteurs jusque-là relativement épargnés comme l'automobile, les machines-outils, la chimie ou les semi-conducteurs. À partir de 2022 et l'éclatement de la bulle immobilière chinoise, cette montée en gamme s'est accompagnée d'une dépréciation réelle de la monnaie chinoise (graphique 4.1). Ces gains de compétitivité-prix et hors prix ont débouché sur des gains de parts de marché très significatifs (graphique 4.2), avec pour contrepartie des pertes importantes pour les pays occidentaux comme les États-Unis, la France ou l'Allemagne. Le deuxième facteur a été la guerre en Ukraine qui a provoqué l'effondrement du commerce russo-européen, notamment de produits énergétiques. Le troisième facteur est la montée du protectionnisme américain depuis la première présidence Trump, qui s'est poursuivie sous la présidence Biden avant de prendre une nouvelle dimension depuis le début du second mandat de Donald Trump. [Premier paragraphe] |
| Keywords: | conjoncture, déficit public, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, taux souverain, inflation, commerce international |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05753627 |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Eric Heyer (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Avant le déclenchement du conflit, le marché du pétrole était bien approvisionné. Malgré des tensions géopolitiques persistantes -guerre en Ukraine, sanctions contre les majors russes Rosneft et Lukoil -, les fondamentaux plaidaient pour une modération : l'offre mondiale était en excédent, et l'OPEP+ manœuvrait prudemment pour éviter un effondrement des cours. En début d'année 2026, une légère remontée des prix s'était néanmoins dessinée, portée par les tensions entre l'Iran et les États-Unis, propulsant brièvement le Brent au-dessus de 70 $ le baril. Du côté de l'offre, l'OPEP+ a augmenté sa production plus vite que prévu dès avril 2025, en supprimant progressivement ses coupes de 2, 2 millions de barils par jour (Mbj), avant de marquer une pause au premier trimestre 2026. Par ailleurs, en mars 2026, huit pays membres ont décidé de lever leurs coupes volontaires supplémentaires de 1, 65 Mbj 2 , en s'accordant sur une hausse de 206 000 bj à partir d'avril 2026. Sur le marché du gaz, la situation avait elle aussi fini par se détendre. Le premier semestre 2025 avait pourtant été difficile : le TTF avait culminé autour de 47 € le mégawattheure (MWh) début 2025, pénalisé par l'arrêt du transit russe via l'Ukraine. La montée en puissance rapide du gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) mondial, portée notamment par la nouvelle capacité américaine de Plaquemines, avait sensiblement soulagé les marchés au second semestre, ramenant les prix spot à la baisse, autour de 30 €/MWh, en Europe comme en Asie. À la veille du choc, le marché gazier européen se trouvait donc dans une phase de détente relative, avec des stocks en cours de reconstitution et une offre mondiale en forte croissance. [Premiers paragraphes] |
| Keywords: | énergie, inflation, conjoncture, déficit public, politique budgétaire, politique monétaire, taux souverain |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05753619 |
| By: | Dobrotic, Ivana (University of Zagreb); Arnalds, Ásdís Aðalbjörg; Kaufman, Gayle; Koslowski, Alison; Moss, Peter; Valentova, Marie |
| Abstract: | The International Network on Leave Policies and Research has been producing an annual review of leave policies and related research since 2005 (for earlier reviews, go to the network’s website www.leavenetwork.org). The review covers Maternity, Paternity and Parental leaves; leave to care for sick children and other employment-related measures to support working parents; and early childhood education and care policy. The International Review is based on country notes from each participating country, prepared by members of the network and edited by a team of network members. Each country note follows a standard format: details of different types of leave; the relationship between leave policy and early childhood education and care policy; recent policy developments; information on take-up of leave. The International Review also includes definitions of the main types of leave policies; and cross-country comparisons. These comparative overviews cover: each main type of leave; the relationship between leave and ECEC entitlements; and policy changes and developments since the previous review. We also include a technical appendix. The 2026 International Review covers 53 countries. These are: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Costa Rica, Colombia, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Israel, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Serbia, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States of America, Uruguay and Vietnam. Costa Rica is a new country note joining the review this year for the first time. The content of the International Review is to the best of our knowledge correct at the time of going to press, but mistakes may occur. If you should have a query or find an error, we would be grateful if you would contact the country note authors as relevant and the editors. We recommend that readers consult the most recent version of the International Review where possible, as we are unable to retrospectively rectify errors. |
| Date: | 2026–09–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2ujmw_v1 |
| By: | Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Kyritsis, Evangelos (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Europe’s move toward renewable energy has sped up as the need to cut emissions has become closely linked with the need to secure energy supply. The EU’s Fit for 55 package proposed a 40% renewable energy target for 2030 [16]. The REPowerEU plan later raised the ambition to 45% in May 2022 in response to the need to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels [17]. Besides the significant contribution of renewable energies to the generation mix, they have created a dichotomy in electricity prices. An abundance of renewables can create extremely low prices and high volatility. On the other hand, their absence or insufficiency turns the gas-fired units or some fossil fuels on, which can create extremely high power prices. This phenomenon, in combination with geopolitical factors, has generated a binary fat-tailed distribution in electricity prices, which motivated us to study it more closely. Therefore, in this paper, we analyse the determinants of extreme electricity prices by modelling the conditional tail index. Additionally, we extend the analysis by [18] to a more recent sample period. We show that observable market conditions, such as TTF prices, load, and renewable generation in Germany and Italy from 2018 to 2023, affect the heaviness of the price distribution tail, a dimension of risk that is not captured by standard approaches such as quantile regression. |
| Keywords: | Extreme electricity prices; conditional tail-index estimator |
| JEL: | C14 C22 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2026–09–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2026_011 |
| By: | Catherine Mathieu (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Le référendum sur la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'Union européenne a eu lieu le 23 juin 2016, soit il y a 10 ans. Le Brexit l'a emporté. Le Royaume-Uni a quitté l'Union européenne le 31 janvier 2020, mais est resté membre du marché unique jusqu'au 31 décembre 2020. Avant, et depuis le référendum, de nombreuses études ont analysé l'impact du Brexit sur l'économie britannique. Aujourd'hui, que peut-on en dire ? L'analyse est délicate puisque la période est courte (cinq ans et demi) et a été marquée par de nombreux événements : certains chocs, négatifs, qui ont touché toutes les économies : la crise Covid, l'invasion russe de l'Ukraine et la crise énergétique, la hausse des droits de douane américains, mais aussi certains événements favorables à la croissance : la reprise des pays du Sud de la zone euro après la crise des dettes souveraines, le développement des hautes technologies et la politique budgétaire expansionniste aux États-Unis. Cet article propose un état des lieux de l'économie britannique dix ans après le référendum. La première partie présente l'évolution des grandes variables macroéconomiques au cours des 27 dernières années, en distinguant deux sous-périodes : 1998-2015 (du lancement de l'euro au référendum britannique) ; 2016-2025 (depuis le référendum). La deuxième partie propose une revue de littérature des études parues depuis le Brexit. Les parties suivantes analysent la situation de l'investissement, du commerce extérieur, du secteur financier, de la productivité et de l'immigration : cinq domaines pour lesquels les études réalisées avant le référendum annonçaient un impact important du Brexit. Enfin, nous présentons quelques grands traits de l'évolution de la politique économique britannique depuis 2016. |
| Keywords: | immigration, services financiers, commerce extérieur, économie britannique, Brexit |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05753660 |
| By: | Farid Muradzada (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Khazan Bakhshaliyev (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a forecasting framework for Brent crude oil prices based on the fundamental drivers of the global oil market, namely demand, supply, and market expectations. The estimation is conducted using quarterly time-series data covering the period 1994–2025 and employs a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The results indicate that the proposed model demonstrates strong forecast performance under conditions of high oil price volatility. The forecasting error of the model is lower than that of benchmark models. Furthermore, the findings confirm that geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and uncertainty in global energy markets have a significant impact on oil price dynamics through oil futures prices. |
| Keywords: | Brent crude oil price, oil price forecasting, VAR model |
| JEL: | C53 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2025–08–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aze:wpaper:2503 |