|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Vasudevan, Vittal |
| Abstract: | Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the region. Professional forecasters predicted a dramatic increase in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant spillover effects, some hysteresis effects as well as a changing nature of business cycles. We also use the war shock to study how professional forecasters acquire and process information. Our results point to state dependence as well as an important role of forward information in shaping macroeconomic outlook of professional forecasters. |
| Keywords: | Conflict; Forecasting; Ukraine; Geoeconomics; Military intervention; Uncertainty |
| JEL: | F51 C53 E3 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20462 |
| By: | Chupilkin, Maxim; Javorcik, Beata; Peeva, Aleksandra; Plekhanov, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of economic sanctions on the choice of invoicing currencies in international trade, focusing on the sanctions imposed on Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using transaction-level data on Russia’s imports from 2016 to 2023, we document a significant shift away from US dollar (USD) invoicing toward increased use of the Chinese renminbi (CNY), particularly in trade with China and other neutral economies. By the second half of 2023, the CNY accounted for over a third of Russia’s import value, up from less than 4 percent in 2021. Employing a difference-in-difference approach, we identify several mechanisms driving this shift: geopolitical alignment, financial infrastructure such as currency swap lines with the People’s Bank of China, the threat of secondary sanctions, and rising transaction costs in Western currencies. Strategic complementarities and the exit of Western firms further accelerated this currency switching. Our findings suggest that trade sanctions, beyond reshaping trade flows, also contribute to fragmentation in the international monetary system, with long-term implications for the dominance of the USD in global commerce. |
| Keywords: | China; Russia |
| JEL: | E42 F14 F31 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20471 |
| By: | Corsetti, Giancarlo; Demir, Banu; Javorcik, Beata |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. This paper examines the effects of sanctions through a stylized model and the empiri- cal analysis of Türkiye’s exports to Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While sanctions prompted many exporters to exit the Russian market, firms willing to fill the gap faced reputational risks, higher nonpayment risk, and elevated costs of trading in international currencies. We show that Turkish firms sharply raised their exports of both sanctioned and non-sanctioned goods to Russia, charging higher prices, while also shifting toward cash-in-advance transactions and invoicing in Turk- ish liras instead of dollars. In contrast, Turkish affiliates of Western multinationals responded less, if at all, suggesting a desire to avoid secondary sanctions and repu- tational costs. For these firms, a back-of-the-envelope calculation points to aggregate annualized foregone revenues of $230 million, with a reputational-risk effect equiva- lent to tariffs of up to 42%. |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20625 |
| By: | Egorov, Konstantin; Korovkin, Vasily; Makarin, Alexey; Nigmatulina, Dzhamilya |
| Abstract: | How effective are trade sanctions? We examine the economic impact of the unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia following February 2022, when Western countries banned exports accounting for 36% of Russia's prewar import value. Combining novel, manually collected records of these sanctions with Russian customs data, firm balance sheets, domestic railway shipments, and government procurement contracts, we provide the most comprehensive analysis to date of the economic impact of trade sanctions on a target country. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that imports of sanctioned country-product varieties into Russia saw a sharp 62% decline following the war's onset. While we see substantial rerouting through third countries, it has not fully offset the direct import losses: total imports of sanctioned products fell by 27% through 2023. We find that Russian firms that had relied on soon-to-be-sanctioned imports experienced a 14% decline in output during the same period; we also observe similar declines for manufacturing and technology firms, and firms along the military supply chain. Affected firms have also experienced reduced government procurement sales and incurred additional losses when their buyers or suppliers were exposed to sanctions. Overall, our findings suggest that, contrary to widespread claims of ineffectiveness, import sanctions on Russia have had far-reaching adverse effects. |
| JEL: | D22 D74 F14 F51 H56 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20601 |
| By: | Gilles Paché (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Modern conflicts reveal that material superiority alone rarely ensures battlefield success. The war in Ukraine since 2022 underscores how the organization, sustainment, and adaptation of logistical networks can decisively shape outcomes, often surpassing the impact of troop numbers or armament volumes. Ukrainian forces demonstrate that endurance, operational flexibility, and effective use of terrain can secure a lasting advantage against a more heavily equipped adversary. Historical precedent reinforces this observation: Finland's resistance against the Soviet Union between 1939 and 1944 shows that an apparently weaker State can achieve strategic leverage through careful preparation and resource management. By structuring defences around mobility, dispersing critical assets, and executing targeted operations, Finland sustained long-term. |
| Keywords: | Force multiplier, Logistics, Operational resilience, Strategic endurance, Ukraine War, Winter War, Adaptability |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05670392 |
| By: | Dinarte-Diaz, Lelys; Gresham, James; Lemos, Renata; Patrinos, Harry A.; Rodriguez-Ramirez, Rony |
| Abstract: | This paper provides insights into human capital investments during wartime by presenting evidence from three experiments of an online tutoring program for Ukrainian students amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Conducted between early 2023 and mid-2024, the experiments reached nearly 10, 000 students across all regions of Ukraine. The program offered three hours per week of small-group tutoring in math and Ukrainian language over six weeks, and used academic and psychosocial tools to address student challenges at different intensities of disruption. We find that the program led to substantial improvements in learning — up to 0.49 standard deviations in math and 0.40 standard deviations in Ukrainian language — and consistent reductions in stress — up to 0.12 standard deviations. We document high take-up and engagement, and identify four mechanisms driving impact: structured peer interactions, improved attitudes toward learning, enhanced socio-emotional skills, and increased student investments. A complementary experiment using information nudges to increase parental engagement highlights challenges in promoting parental investments in a conflict setting. The program was cost-effective across all experiments, with benefit-to-cost ratios ranging from 31 to 56, and scalable given its reliance on existing infrastructure and teaching capacity. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine; Wartime; Tutoring; Student achievement; Mental health |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20693 |
| By: | Fabra, Natalia; Leblanc, Clement; Souza, Mateus |
| Abstract: | The 2021-2023 European energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, led to broad policy interventions in energy markets. In contrast to the retail-side measures and public transfers implemented elsewhere, Spain and Portugal targeted the wholesale electricity market through the so-called Iberian solution. We quantify the distributional implications of the crisis and this market intervention on Spanish electricity firms and across consumer groups. We find that the crisis shifted substantial wealth from consumers to generators, with regressive impacts among consumers. Conversely, the policy’s relief was progressive, delivering larger gains to lower-income groups. |
| JEL: | L94 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20593 |
| By: | Akcigit, Ufuk; Kilic, Furkan; Lall, Somik; Shpak, Solomiya |
| Abstract: | As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; Productivity; Post-conflict recovery; Middle-income trap; Business dynamism |
| JEL: | O11 O43 P26 E65 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20503 |
| By: | Wanger, Thomas Cherico; Thilsted, Shakuntala Haraksingh; Sheng, Dong; von Braun, Joachim; Fan, Shenggen; Soussana, Jean-Francois |
| Abstract: | Climate, economic shocks, and conflicts destabilize food systems and undermine all aspects of food security. Between 2016 and 2025, the level of food insecurity rose by 153%, primarily driven by droughts until 2019, then by the COVID 19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. These tensions are amplified in face of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, where the USA and Israel attack on Iran led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of global oil supply pass. Currently, 40% of petrochemicals and 15% of fossil fuels are now used in food systems for pesticide production, plastic packaging, and maintaining long haul cold chains. Disruptions to the flow of 30% of global fertilizer supply and 20% of liquefied natural gas, a key fertilizer feedstock, together with damage to infrastructure in exporting countries, are likely to constrain fertilizer availability for years to come. This will leave farmers in the 2026 crop growing season unable to have sufficient inputs and use their machinery for planting and harvesting. Immediate effects of the Iran war may be felt in vulnerable regions of the world already, with full ramifications manifesting in 2027, through increased food prices and food insecurity globally. Here, we argue that food systems dependence on fertilizer inputs can be generally reduced by enabling farmer-led adoption of diversified systems (e.g., legume rotations, agroforestry, biofertilizers and precision nutrient use) and locking in structural change through simultaneous government action. This is a critical addition to the currently dominating policy debate, where the argument is on fertilizers as strategic food-security infrastructure, with buffer reserves, low-carbon ammonia and tighter nutrient management. |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:s5kcx_v1 |
| By: | Lewis, Vivien; Puangjit, Sirikorn |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk (GPR) shocks that trigger the imposition of sanctions tend to lower output and raise inflation in the sanctioned country. We develop a three-equation small open economy New Keynesian model where GPR shocks are modeled as negative productivity shocks and sanctions manifest as import tariffs in response to GPR increases. We calibrate the GPR process, sanction rule, and interest rate rule to match the observed dynamics of the GPR index, output, inflation, and the policy rate in Russian data. The sanction response to GPR allows the resulting model to capture the empirical impulse responses well. Additionally, we find that Russia's monetary policy rule is more accommodative than prescribed by the standard Taylor rule. While this may reflect policy preferences, recent theoretical results indicate that such a policy stance may be optimal when sanctions act as cost-push shocks that shift the Phillips Curve. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk; Monetary policy; New keynesian model; Sanctions |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E58 F42 F51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20724 |
| By: | Wilp, Susanne Bleier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of sex work, drug policy and HIV in Eastern and Southeastern Europe - a region that fits neither the governance typology of the Global North nor the self-organisation typology of the Global South developed in two companion papers. The region's defining feature is the intersection of sex work with injecting drug use under double criminalisation, governed in much of the post-Soviet space not by criminal law in the strict sense but by a distinct administrative-offence regime inherited from the late Soviet period. Eastern Europe and Central Asia is, alongside the Middle East/North Africa and Latin America, one of three world regions where new HIV infections have risen rather than fallen since 2010. Two axes structure the analysis. The first traces the postsocialist legal-epidemiological complex from its administrative-law foundations through Tim Rhodes' risk environment framework - developed in this region - to the catastrophic 2014 Crimean methadone ban and the contrasting resilience of Ukraine's wartime opioid agonist treatment system. The second traces an inverted extraterritorial axis: where the Northern paper found US power exercised through platform law and the Southern paper through the PEPFAR pledge, this region experiences the abrupt 2025 withdrawal of PEPFAR/USAID funding colliding with an indigenous Russian counter-power - 'traditional values' politics and foreign-agent legislation that actively suppresses sex worker self-organisation (SWAN, Silver Rose, Legalife-Ukraine) rather than merely leaving it unfunded. A cross-cutting axis examines Southeastern Europe and intra-EU mobility, where Romania's collapse from Global Fund eligibility to antiretroviral supply crises shows treatment access becoming a function of residency and funding status rather than medical need - a pattern this paper extends to the underexamined situation of HIV-positive sex workers who return from Western Europe to Romania or Bulgaria. The paper argues that the postsocialist risk environment constitutes a fourth, structurally distinct case: neither self-built protective infrastructure as in the South nor institutionalised labour-law normalisation as in the North, but a terrain where both state and self-organised protection remain precarious against external shocks - war, funding withdrawal, and authoritarian repression alike. Companion Papers: DE https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/df43j_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ckru6_v1 EN https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uc57b_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tysjx_v1 |
| Date: | 2026–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3ykg8_v1 |
| By: | Wilp, Susanne Bleier |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a theoretical synthesis of sex work, drug policy and HIV in Eastern and Southeastern Europe - a region that fits neither the governance typology of the Global North nor the self-organisation typology of the Global South developed in two companion papers. The region's defining feature is the intersection of sex work with injecting drug use under double criminalisation, governed in much of the post-Soviet space not by criminal law in the strict sense but by a distinct administrative-offence regime inherited from the late Soviet period. Eastern Europe and Central Asia is, alongside the Middle East/North Africa and Latin America, one of three world regions where new HIV infections have risen rather than fallen since 2010. Two axes structure the analysis. The first traces the postsocialist legal-epidemiological complex from its administrative-law foundations through Tim Rhodes' risk environment framework - developed in this region - to the catastrophic 2014 Crimean methadone ban and the contrasting resilience of Ukraine's wartime opioid agonist treatment system. The second traces an inverted extraterritorial axis: where the Northern paper found US power exercised through platform law and the Southern paper through the PEPFAR pledge, this region experiences the abrupt 2025 withdrawal of PEPFAR/USAID funding colliding with an indigenous Russian counter-power - 'traditional values' politics and foreign-agent legislation that actively suppresses sex worker self-organisation (SWAN, Silver Rose, Legalife-Ukraine) rather than merely leaving it unfunded. A cross-cutting axis examines Southeastern Europe and intra-EU mobility, where Romania's collapse from Global Fund eligibility to antiretroviral supply crises shows treatment access becoming a function of residency and funding status rather than medical need - a pattern this paper extends to the underexamined situation of HIV-positive sex workers who return from Western Europe to Romania or Bulgaria. The paper argues that the postsocialist risk environment constitutes a fourth, structurally distinct case: neither self-built protective infrastructure as in the South nor institutionalised labour-law normalisation as in the North, but a terrain where both state and self-organised protection remain precarious against external shocks - war, funding withdrawal, and authoritarian repression alike. Companion papers DE https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/df43j_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/ckru6_v1 EN https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/uc57b_v1 https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/tysjx_v1 |
| Date: | 2026–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d8svw_v1 |
| By: | Fitzenberger, Bernd (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Hohmeyer, Katrin (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Prümer, Stephanie (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Over the past four years, the integration rate of basic income support recipients who transitioned to employment has declined and has not returned to the level seen before the COVID-19 crisis. During this period, the labour market was affected not only by the COVID-19 crisis but also by the start of the war against Ukraine, a recession, and the Citizen’s Benefit Reform. This study examines how the integration rate and the quality of the jobs obtained by working-age benefit recipients - who did not come to Germany as part of the refugee migration since the mid-2010s - have evolved between 2015 and 2025. The focus is on the job-seeking status of these working-age benefit recipients." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Date: | 2026–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202611 |
| By: | Ashwin Bhattathiripad; Vipin P Veetil |
| Abstract: | Economic power in international trade is the capacity of one country to impose loss on another by withdrawing from a trading relationship. This paper measures it. A model of the short run represents each trade restriction as a pattern of barred entries in the world matrix of input shares and maps it into a vector of losses by country and sector. The asymmetry between the two countries' losses under the same severance is the measure of power: a gap in substitution, since a buyer's dependence turns on how easily it finds another source and a seller's on how easily it finds another market. When a relationship is barred, buyers lean on alternative suppliers and barred suppliers on alternative buyers already present in the benchmark network, under the ceiling that no producer exceeds its pre-shock scale. The reallocation is a RAS balancing of the disrupted matrix that lets \emph{both sides} adjust together. Across 9, 480 counterfactual severances on the 2022 world input--output network, mutual trade dependence is anything but mutual. The average bilateral asymmetry is 0.6 on a scale that runs from balance at zero to complete lopsidedness at one. The United States holds the favorable side in all its relationships, China in all but one. The same tilt runs far down the hierarchy: a severance with Russia would cost Belarus more than a tenth of its economic activity, but Russia only half of one percent. The asymmetry bears only a weak relation to bilateral trade imbalance but closely tracks whether a country sits at the core or the periphery. Power is a property of network position, not deficits. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.09990 |
| By: | Salayeva, Guli; Reyimberganov, Baxrom |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates barriers preventing small and medium enterprises from adopting digital technologies for green business models in transition economies. A survey of 385 SME owners across Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan was conducted. Factor analysis identifies five barrier dimensions, and logistic regression reveals that financial constraints and human capital deficits are the strongest predictors of non-adoption. Recommendations for targeted policy interventions are provided |
| Date: | 2026–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:sfrkp_v1 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/164 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The Kyrgyz Republic has sustained strong economic growth for the fourth consecutive year. The outlook, is however clouded by significant downside risks. The overall favorable economic performance provides a window of opportunity to accelerate reforms that enhance resilience, strengthen policy buffers, and make room for private sector-led growth. |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/163 |
| By: | Karlygash Moldabaeva (Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University); Kuralay Telgozhayeva (Almaty University of Power Engineering and Telecommunications after G. Daukeyev); Kulmanov Azamat (International Education Corporation) |
| Abstract: | The article aims to identify the social, psycholinguistic, motivational reasons for the difficulties that arise in the process of learning Kazakh as a second language. Since in the case of Kazakhstan there is a clear gap between the recognition of the state language?s status and the language?s active use in everyday communication, an empirical analysis of the factors influencing language learning is relevant. The article aims to identify social, psycholinguistic and motivational barriers that arise in the process of learning Kazakh as a second language, and the task is to substantiate effective methodological recommendations on artificial intelligence, aimed at improving the state language teaching based on the identified factors.The source of the study was the survey results conducted using Google Forms among 1st-year Russian-speaking students at a higher educational institution (N = 43). The collected data was processed using descriptive statistics and qualitative interpretation methods. The results showed that most participants did not master the Kazakh language fluently, proving that the Kazakh language is often perceived at a passive level and that active speaking skills are insufficiently developed. The main obstacles identified by the respondents were the lack of use of the Kazakh language at home, absence of a linguistic environment, the school education?s formal nature, and low intrinsic interest. |
| Keywords: | Kazakh language teaching, Intrinsic motivation, Russian-speaking population, Digital language learning, AI in education, State language policy |
| JEL: | I21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:15717030 |
| By: | Kadyrsizova, Snezhana; Myrzakul, Maria |
| Abstract: | While the static inefficiencies of price controls are well-documented, their dynamic consequences on endogenous technological growth remain theoretically ambiguous. Standard frameworks often treat innovation as a monolithic aggregate, masking how regulatory perimeters distort the specific trajectory of technical change. Utilizing a cross-sectional dataset of 953 formal firms from Kazakhstan, we isolate the causal impact of price regulation on firm-level innovation. To eliminate the severe selection bias inherent in regulatory assignment, we employ multivariate entropy balancing to construct an exact counterfactual based on observable moments. The balanced estimates reveal a striking asymmetry: price regulation induces a robust 8.7 percentage point increase in the probability of product innovation, alongside a statistically insignificant effect on cost-reducing process innovation and aggregate R&D activity. This finding suggests that rather than uniformly reducing innovative effort, firms strategically reallocate resources toward new, unregulated product varieties to circumvent price caps and restore Schumpeterian rents. However, this circumventive innovation is highly conditional on structural and financial frictions. The capacity to escape the regulatory perimeter vanishes entirely for firms burdened by credit constraints or forced to compete against heavily subsidized State-Owned Enterprises, resulting in total Schumpeterian deterrence. |
| Keywords: | Kazakhstan; Price regulation; Innovation; Product innovation; Process innovation; R&D |
| JEL: | L1 L51 O3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128474 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Uzbekistan entered 2026 from a position of economic strength, reflecting sustained reform efforts, favorable terms of trade, robust investment, and strong inflows of income and capital. Fiscal and external positions have improved, providing an opportunity to entrench macroeconomic stability, rebuild buffers, and lock in recent disinflation gains. At the same time, policies must navigate a challenging environment characterized by strong domestic demand, higher energy prices, and elevated global uncertainty. |
| Date: | 2026–06–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/152 |
| By: | Rustam Azimov (Uzbekinvest Export-Import Insurance Company); Mirsadikov Abdullaevich (Uzbekinvest Export-Import Insurance Company) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the determinants, barriers, and strategic development trajectories of digital transformation in the insurance market of Uzbekistan within the context of global InsurTech trends. The research aims to bridge the gap between the rapid quantitative growth of the sector and its insufficient qualitative development driven by digital technologies. The theoretical framework is grounded in the works of R.S. Azimov, integrating concepts of institutional hysteresis and sufficient human capital with classical theories of innovation diffusion and human capital.The empirical analysis is based on panel data from 16 leading insurance companies in Uzbekistan over the period 2020?2024. A fixed-effects econometric model is employed to test key hypotheses regarding the impact of digital investments, IT infrastructure, Big Data implementation, and human capital deficits on digitalization and financial performance. The findings reveal that while digital investments and technological adoption positively influence performance, their effectiveness is significantly constrained by shortages in qualified personnel and outdated infrastructure.A key contribution of the study is the empirical validation of Azimov?s theoretical propositions. In particular, the results confirm that investments in digital technologies generate positive financial returns only after a critical threshold of human capital is achieved. Otherwise, such investments may lead to inefficiencies. The research also identifies institutional and market-related barriers, including regulatory uncertainty and low trust in digital channels.The paper proposes three strategic development trajectories? inerti al, catch-up, and breakthrough?emphasizing the need for coordinated efforts between the state and private sector. Practical recommendations are provided to support policy formulation and strategic planning aimed at fostering sustainable digital transformation in Uzbekistan?s insurance market. |
| Keywords: | Digital transformation, Insurance market, InsurTech, Uzbekistan, R.S. Azimov, Econometric modeling, Panel data |
| JEL: | G22 O33 C23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15817142 |
| By: | Vipin P. Veetil; Fathimath S. Vemmarath |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a model of maritime chokepoint closures in which interrupting a shipping passage produces losses that are not measured, or even bounded, by the value of the trade that transits it. They stem from disruptions in the flow of intermediate goods that are complementary in downstream production. Re-matching displaced trade on the buyer and seller sides of the market limits the damage but cannot eliminate it. Across countries, the incidence is heavy-tailed, and it reaches economies whose cargo never crosses the passage, not only those that route their trade through it. The two ends of a severed corridor lose unequally, the exporting side by three to five times as economic geography funnels commodity-concentrated sellers through a single passage while their buyers re-source. Joint closures depart from the sum of their parts: the Middle East scenario is sub-additive, while the East Asia and Russia-Europe scenarios are super-additive. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.09951 |