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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | de Groot, Oliver; Skok, Yevhenii |
| Abstract: | Were either the exceptional defense spending needs of the government or the sharp increase in the cost-of-living of poorer households factors that rationalize the National Bank of Ukraine’s temporary fix of the Hryvnia when Russia invaded in 2022? To test the validity of these explanations, we develop a small open-economy two-agent New Keynesian (SOE-TANK) model of Ukraine featuring: 1) a government that finances military imports and 2) low- and high-income households. We find that the surge in foreign-currency-denominated military spending alone does not justify a temporary exchange-rate peg. However, when the consumption of low income households is close to subsistence levels, we find that the optimal exchange rate regime becomes state-contingent: exchange-rate flexibility is desirable for small shocks, whereas for a large-scale invasion shock, a fixed exchange rate dominates a floating regime with a standard Taylor rule. |
| Keywords: | Central banking; Monetary policy; Emerging markets |
| JEL: | E44 E52 F31 F41 G01 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21509 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Kudlyak, Marianna; Lobozynska, Sophia; Skomorovych, Iryna; Vladychyn, Ulyana; Kovalyuk, Andriy; Snovydovych, Iryna |
| Abstract: | We elicit reservation wage premia for relocating to two Ukrainian cities, using a household survey conducted in mid-April to mid-July 2024 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine: high-risk Kharkiv (near the frontline) and moderate-risk Kyiv. Risk tolerance is a strong predictor of willingness to move to Kharkiv — the most risk-averse have roughly half the odds of the most risk-tolerant — but matters much less for Kyiv. This asymmetry is difficult to reconcile with the hypothesis that risk tolerance merely proxies for general mobility preferences. Separately estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS~0.04), we find that including it renders risk tolerance insignificant for Kyiv but not for Kharkiv — a pattern illuminated by the Epstein-Zin separation of risk aversion and the EIS: risk aversion adds predictive power only when danger is high, while the EIS operates equally for both cities as a common relocation-cost channel. The very low EIS implies that relocation incentives structured as future benefits may be ineffective; frontloaded subsidies are more likely to influence behavior. |
| Keywords: | Risk preferences; Ukraine |
| JEL: | D15 D81 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21384 |
| By: | Сейдахметова Баян // Seidakhmetova Bayan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Шамшиев Мурат // Shamshiyev Murat (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Шамар Бауыржан // Shamar Bauyrzhan (National Bank of Kazakhstan); Жузбаев Адам // Zhuzbayev Adam (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Данное исследование посвящено визуальному и эмпирическому анализу влияния ставок денежного рынка и рынка государственных ценных бумаг (далее – ГЦБ) на стоимость основных банковских продуктов в Казахстане. Основная цель исследования заключалась в анализе и оценке степени эффективности функционирования данных элементов процентного канала трансмиссионного механизма монетарной политики. В ходе исследования были оценены импульсные отклики ставок банковских продуктов на изменение ставки TONIA (прокси базовой ставки) и доходностей ГЦБ на основе VAR моделей. По результатам анализа выявилось, что ставки по депозитам и кредитам юридических лиц различной срочности, а также «рыночная» ипотечная ставка, очищенная от Отбасы Банка и программы «7-20-25», ощутимо реагируют на изменение ставки TONIA. При этом влияние ставки TONIA на общую ставку по ипотеке и на ставки по потребительским кредитам менее выражено. Влияние доходностей ГЦБ на кредитные ставки населению и «рыночную» ставку по ипотеке оказалось незначимым. Вместе с тем, изменение на 1п.п. аукционных ставок ГЦБ до 1 года приводит к значимому росту ставки по кредитам бизнесу. Полученные выводы могут быть использованы в рамках дальнейшего повышения эффективности денежно-кредитной политики. |
| Keywords: | доходность ГЦБ, доходность первичных аукционов, индекс доходности ГЦБ, импульсные отклики, ставка по депозитам, ставка по ипотеке, ставка по кредитам физических лиц, ставка по кредитам юридических лиц, NS, TONIA, VAR-модель |
| JEL: | C3 C32 E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:75 |
| By: | Fioretti, Michele; Saint-Jean, Victor; Smith, Simon |
| Abstract: | We study how shareholder values shape firms’ costly prosocial actions and who bears their costs. We develop a model in which some shareholders are publicly associated with a firm (e.g., founders or other prominent individual blockholders). When the firm takes a visible action under intense media scrutiny, these shareholders can plausibly claim credit and gain reputation, while diversified institutional investors cannot. The key empirical challenge is that influence is rarely observed: many consequential decisions are not subject to shareholder proposals or votes. We therefore use predetermined annual general meeting (AGM) timing combined with large, sudden crises - COVID-19 and the invasion of Ukraine - to generate quasi-experimental variation in attention and attribution, and to study highly visible, high-cost actions that were not legally required at onset. Firms with prominent individual blockholders are more likely to donate or exit when their AGM falls at crisis onset, while firms with large diversified institutional owners are less likely to do so. Consistent with our mechanism, online searches rise for prominent individuals after firm actions but not for institutions. Using an intent-to-treat triple-difference design on the 1, 000 largest U.S.-listed firms, we find that exposed firms reduce investment, productivity, and profitability by 1-3% for up to two years, highlighting the shared costs of pursuing the values of a visible minority. |
| Keywords: | shareholder values; Reputation; Exit or Voice; Corporate social responsibility; Covid-19; Russia-ukraine war; Control vs influence |
| JEL: | G32 G41 M14 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21349 |
| By: | Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Sologoub, Ilona; Fedyk, Yuriy |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of more than 7, 000 Ukrainians, we study how information treatments affect corruption perceptions and prosocial behavior. We document a large gap between perceived and experienced corruption: while most respondents view corruption as widespread and a major national problem, far fewer report direct exposure. Through a randomized controlled trial, we find that informing citizens about successful prosecutions raises perceived government willingness to fight corruption but does not reduce overall corruption perceptions. Communicating the scale of corruption alone generates no significant effects. Information treatments have little effect on hypothetical or actual donations and volunteering, suggesting a limited pass-through from changed beliefs to prosocial action. Thus, while information interventions can strengthen institutional credibility, they alone are not enough to tangibly improve civic engagement or reduce perceptions of corruption. |
| Keywords: | Corruption; beliefs; Randomized controlled trial (rct) |
| JEL: | D73 O17 O52 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21494 |
| By: | Consonni, Niccolo; Magerman, Glenn |
| Abstract: | We develop a Strategic Dependency Index (SDI) to quantify the welfare cost of product-level import price shocks. Unlike existing empirical indicators based on concentration metrics and ad hoc thresholds, the SDI is derived from a structural cost-of-living framework, and allows for additive decomposability across products, source countries and destination countries. We apply the SDI to the EU27, and estimate trade elasticities, love-for-variety parameters, and origin-destination- specific taste shifters using highly disaggregated 8-digit product-level trade data over 2002–2021, instrumenting for prices and expenditure shares to address endogeneity. Three sets of findings emerge. First, the products generating the largest welfare losses are petroleum oils, liquefied natural gas, iron ores, and selected basic metals. Their strategic relevance stems from the interaction of both low substitutability across sources and large expenditure shares. Second, strategic dependency varies sharply across EU member states even for the same product, driven by fundamentally different channels — high substitution elasticities in some countries versus large expenditure shares in others — implying that uniform EU-wide policy responses may fail to address the heterogeneous sources of vulnerability. Third, the suppliers contributing most to aggregate welfare exposure do not coincide with the geopolitical rivals dominating policy discourse: China, the USA, and Russia do not lead the SDI ranking. The SDI provides a tractable, theory-consistent framework for evaluating targeted policy interventions aimed at reducing strategic trade exposure. |
| JEL: | F11 F13 F14 D12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21328 |
| By: | Mykhailyshyna, Dariia |
| Abstract: | Do salient threats make people take more or less risk? I study this question using wartime air alerts in Ukraine, a recurring shock that is threatening, disruptive, and often occurs at night. Combining time-stamped alert records with daily administrative traffic-accident data from Lviv, I find that each additional hour of overnight alert exposure is associated with about 10 percent fewer next-day accidents. The decline is concentrated in afternoon and evening travel, weekends, central areas, and accident categories linked to risky driving, while fatigue-related accidents do not increase. These patterns are consistent with behavioural risk avoidance: after a salient threat, people appear to reduce or retime discretionary travel and drive more cautiously. Evidence from thirteen other Ukrainian cities suggests that this response is strongest where alerts are relatively rare and weaker where alerts are routine. Salient threats can therefore reduce risky behaviour, but the response appears to depend on continued salience. |
| Keywords: | Traffic accidents, risk preferences, risk avoidance, salient threat, behavioural adaptation, air alerts, conflict |
| JEL: | R41 D91 D74 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1778 |
| By: | Адилханова Зарина // Adilkhanova Zarina (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В работе представлены эмпирические оценки двух параметров, необходимых для анализа межвременного поведения домохозяйств и торговли: коэффициента относительной степени неприятия риска и эластичности замещения между отечественными и импортными товарами. Коэффициент относительного непринятия риска оценивался на основе опросных данных БНС АСПиР о потреблении и субъективном благополучии домохозяйств Казахстана за период 2017-2024 гг. с применением методов максимального правдоподобия и GMM. Полученные значения находятся в диапазоне 1, 42-1, 66, что свидетельствует о умеренной склонности к риску и согласуется с международной литературой. Эластичность замещения между импортными и отечественными товарами оценивалась с использованием панельных данных по 56 товарам за период с января 2020 по сентябрь 2025 гг., с применением модели с фиксированными эффектами. Коэффициент эластичности цен 0, 18 указывает на низкую степень взаимозаменяемости товаров. // The paper presents empirical estimates of two parameters required for the analysis of intertemporal household behavior and trade dynamics: the coefficient of relative risk aversion and the elasticity of substitution between domestic and imported goods. The coefficient of relative risk aversion was estimated using household survey data from the BNS ASPR, covering consumption and subjective well-being indicators for the period 2017-2024. The estimation employed both Maximum Likelihood and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) techniques. The estimated values range from 1.42 to 1.66, indicating a moderate degree of risk aversion and broadly consistent with findings reported in the international literature. The elasticity of substitution between imported and domestic goods was estimated using panel data for 56 product categories over the period from January 2020 to September 2025, applying a fixed-effects model. The estimated price elasticity of 0.18 suggests a low degree of substitutability between domestic and imported goods. |
| Keywords: | эластичность Армингтона, коэффициент относительной степени неприятия риска, CRRA, эластичность замещения, Armington elasticity, Constant Relative Risk Aversion, elasticity of substitution |
| JEL: | D12 D81 F14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:76 |
| By: | Erdinc Akyildirim; Giray Gozgor |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces the Geopolitical Policy Divergence Index for G7 economies (GPDI–G7), a novel news-based measure of geopolitical policy disagreement and alliance-level fragmentation. Using English-language news coverage from the LexisNexis News database, we construct a monthly index spanning January 1998 to April 2026. The GPDI–G7 measures the relative salience of disagreements among G7 economies concerning foreign policy, sanctions, military strategy, diplomatic responses, export controls, energy security, and broader geopolitical positioning. Unlike existing indicators of geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and global supply-chain pressures, the index focuses on fragmentation in collective policy responses among allied advanced economies rather than the intensity of geopolitical conflict or uncertainty itself. A narrative event-based assessment shows pronounced increases around major episodes of geopolitical disagreement, including the Kosovo intervention, the Iraq War, Iran-related tensions, Russia’s annexation of Crimea, G7 tariff disputes, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Correlation analysis shows that the GPDI–G7 is positively, albeit modestly, associated with geopolitical risk and trade-policy uncertainty. In contrast, its relationships with global economic policy uncertainty and supply-chain pressures are weak or statistically insignificant. These findings provide preliminary evidence that the index captures a distinct dimension of the global policy environment and offers a new empirical framework for analysing geopolitical fragmentation, alliance cohesion, and international policy coordination. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical policy divergence, geopolitical fragmentation, alliance cohesion, geopolitical risk, geoeconomics, news-based index |
| JEL: | F42 F51 F52 F53 C43 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12773 |
| By: | Godehardt, Nadine; Dieckmann, Oliver |
| Abstract: | Innerhalb weniger Tage empfing der chinesische Staats- und Parteichef Xi Jinping im Mai 2026 zunächst Donald Trump und dann Wladimir Putin. Der Machthaber aus Moskau reiste bereits zum 25. Mal seit dem Jahr 2000 in die Volksrepublik, während mit Trump erstmals seit neun Jahren wieder ein US-Präsident zum Staatsbesuch nach Peking kam. Beide Gipfeltreffen waren akribisch choreographiert. Trump und Putin bekamen die für sie wichtigen Bilder geliefert, Xi indes präsentierte sich als Zeremonienmeister der Weltpolitik. Welche Bedeutung haben solche politisch ritualisierten Inszenierungen? Inwiefern ordnen sich auf visueller Ebene die Beziehungen zwischen China, Russland und den USA? Und welche Lehren sollten Deutschland und die EU in ihrem Umgang mit Peking daraus ziehen? |
| Keywords: | Volksrepublik China, Vereinigte Staaten, Russische Föderation, Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, Wladimir Putin, Gipfeltreffen, Visibilität, Visualität, konstruktive strategische Stabilität |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:341655 |
| By: | Bondarenko, Yevheniia; Kang, Nayeon; Lewis, Vivien; Rottner, Matthias; Schüler, Yves |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical risk is a major concern for the euro area, yet widely used measures largely reflect a US perspective. We introduce a geopolitical risk indicator tailored to the euro area using local European news sources. Shocks to this index have significant recessionary and inflationary consequences in the euro area, effects that would be missed when relying on the corresponding US-based measure. We estimate that the Russo-Ukrainian War imposed substantial output losses and inflationary pressures on the euro area in 2022. Combining structural scenario analysis with end-of-sample nowcasting, we show that euro area prospects are highly sensitive to future developments in geopolitical risk. We complement these analyses with two news-based measures of sanctions intensity and shortages for the euro area. |
| Keywords: | Euro area; geopolitical risk; Inflation; Sanctions; Shortages |
| JEL: | E32 F42 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21409 |
| By: | Goodhart, Charles; Vu, Ly Hoang |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how media usage and individual characteristics shape trust in national institutions across diverse political and informational environments. Drawing on a harmonized dataset that combines the WVS/EVS Trend 1981–2022 with population data from the World Bank, we analyze 423, 346 individual observations from 97 countries. We examine trust in five national institutions (press, government, parliament, law courts, and commercial banks) and conduct region-specific analyses covering 8 regions: Western Europe and other Advanced Economies, Eastern Europe (within and outside the Russian sphere), Asia (within and outside the China sphere), Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and the MENA. The results reveal robust cross-regional patterns: traditional media use is consistently associated with higher trust in national institutions, whereas social media use is generally linked to lower trust, particularly in political institutions. We review and discuss the sharply differing regional effects of religious adherence and the length of the current government ruling party time in office. Subjective well-being, perceived security, and life satisfaction emerge as the most stable predictors of trust across regions and institutions. These findings highlight the joint roles of information environments and lived experience in shaping institutional trust and carry important implications for governance and public communication strategies. |
| Keywords: | Religiosity |
| JEL: | D10 D91 H11 O50 P47 P52 Z12 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21295 |