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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara; von Ondarza, Nicolai; Seebass, Frauke |
| Abstract: | Seit Russland 2022 seinen vollumfänglichen Aggressionskrieg gegen die Ukraine begonnen hat, verfolgt die EU ihre Erweiterungspolitik unter geopolitischen Vorzeichen. Wie es bei der Europäischen Kommission und bei Kandidatenstaaten inzwischen heißt, könnte die EU ab 2028 neue Mitglieder aufnehmen; die Ukraine fordert sogar, 2027 beizutreten. Doch hohe Hürden stehen der Erweiterung im Weg. In der EU stagniert der Reformprozess, der ihre Handlungsfähigkeit verbessern und sie für eine Mitgliederzahl von 30 oder mehr fit machen soll. Beitrittsreife der Bewerber und Absorptionskraft der Union sind aber Schlüsselkriterien, die die deutsche Europa-Politik traditionell hochhält. In der EU wird nun intensiv über schrittweise Integration, neue Schnellspuren und zusätzliche Sicherheitsklauseln debattiert, um den Zielkonflikt zwischen geopolitischer Dringlichkeit und integrationspolitischer Solidität zu minimieren. Gegenüber den Staaten des Westbalkans sollte die EU am erprobten Beitrittsprozess festhalten. Im Fall der Ukraine ist die Lage so akut, dass es die politische Verpflichtung, das Land aufzunehmen, zu bekräftigen gilt. Als Vorstufe zur Mitgliedschaft sollte die EU Kyjiw eine Beitrittsassoziierung neuen Typs anbieten, die auch eine Sicherheits- und Verteidigungspartnerschaft umfasst. |
| Keywords: | Europäische Union, Erweiterungspolitik, Ukraine, Westbalkan, Beitrittsassoziierung, schrittweise Integration, EU-Reform |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:340044 |
| By: | Martyshev, Pavlo; Grigoriadis, Theocharis; Nivievskyi, Oleg; Kolodiazhnyi, Ivan |
| Abstract: | The weaponization of agricultural trade has once again emerged as critical in the study of modern geopolitics due to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Although Russia has used its wheat exports as a means of enhancing its geopolitical influence over countries in the Global South, evidence on the impact of such a policy is scarce. This paper assesses the impact of reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat imports on food security and political development in sub-Saharan African countries. The panel data for the analysis come from 35 African countries between 2005 and 2024. The Bartik-style shift-share instrumental variables (IV) model utilizes exogenous variables derived from the historical shares of wheat that African countries imported from Russia and Ukraine multiplied by the export contractions caused by geopolitical conflicts in 2014 (Crimea annexation) and 2022 (full-scale invasion of Ukraine). The dependence on Russian wheat has had a uniquely adverse impact upon the development of sub-Saharan Africa, whereas this has not been the case for the dependence on Ukrainian wheat. Prior to 2022, the dependence on Russian wheat had no significant impact upon the reduction of undernourishment in Africa, but had a significant impact on the rise of political instability. After 2022, though, the Russian wheat played a crucial role in the food insecurity within the region. While democratic indices remained unaffected by Russian wheat, other geopolitical factors such as U.S. development aid and Chinese development finance were not able to counter the negative effects of Russian wheat exports. Our findings identify an independent vector of autocratic influence enabled through Russian agricultural exports. For sustainable political development within sub-Saharan Africa, the diversification of staple food suppliers is urgently required. |
| Keywords: | development, food security, political stability, democracy, wheat, Russia, Africa |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:340110 |
| By: | Andrew Davies |
| Abstract: | Communication is a vital instrument in the development and implementation of public policies, raising awareness of reforms, promoting compliance and facilitating behavioural change. In order to be effective, it needs to be strategically managed and guided from the centre of government. This report explores the current state of play with respect to the role of the centre of government in public communications in the Western Balkans, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine. It examines how mandates, structures and practices at the centre of government shape the ability of governments to communicate effectively about their policies and reforms, despite challenging media environments. The quality of government communication is not only an issue for the eight governments themselves: communicating progress with reform is an important element that supports the credibility of the European Union (EU) integration process. As such, the effectiveness of public communication in the Western Balkans, Moldova and Ukraine has significance for the EU as it endeavours to maintain momentum with the enlargement process among citizens in the candidate countries and those in Member States as well. |
| Keywords: | centre of government, EU enlargement, Government communication, moldova, ukraine, western Balkans |
| Date: | 2026–04–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaac:78-en |
| By: | Ziyoqulova, Aziza; Egamberdiev, Bekhzod |
| Abstract: | The findings in this study are novel and relevant for defining human capital as a factor in e-government development. The main objective of this working paper is to contribute to the consolidation of the understanding of the relationship between digital literacy and e-Governance. The study constructs the digital literacy and e-government index using the predicted values from the factor analysis. The dataset used in this study was obtained from the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS). This study aims to analyze the relationship between digital literacy and e-government in Central Asian Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. |
| Keywords: | E-government, Digital literacy, Central Asia |
| JEL: | A1 C12 H10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340041 |
| By: | Lech Marcinkowski; Péter Vági; Dawid Sześciło |
| Abstract: | Ministries remain central to government organisation, yet in recent decades their structure and performance have received limited attention. Interest has instead focused on the rise of public agencies and state owned enterprises. SIGMA’s regular assessments highlight persistent weaknesses in how ministries are organised and operate in the Western Balkans and the European Union (EU) Eastern Neighbourhood, alongside a lack of clear reform direction in an increasingly complex public administration landscape. This study aims to address this divide, analysing current challenges and examining ways forward. While no single model guarantees effective organisation, the report reviews European practices and shows that, despite differing administrative traditions, ministries share several common features. It identifies recurring issues in the Western Balkans, Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine such as excessive politicisation, limited merit-based management, and weak inter-ministerial co-ordination. The study also presents potential reform actions and frames of reference to enhance ministerial effectiveness across diverse governance contexts. |
| Keywords: | Eastern Neighbourhood, EU, organisation of ministries, performance of ministries, Western Balkans |
| Date: | 2026–04–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaac:77-en |
| By: | Mircea Mureșan (Member of the Academy of Scientists, Romania) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East represents one of the most significant turning points for the contemporary architecture of international security. The escalation of the confrontations between Hamas and Israel, which began in October 2023, has generated a complex geopolitical dynamic that goes beyond the regional framework and produces structural effects on global security. In a context characterized by strategic rivalries, proxy conflicts and competition for influence in the international system, the war in the Middle East is becoming a catalytic factor of current geopolitical transformations. The paper analyzes how the conflict influences regional stability and contributes to the reconfiguration of the global balance of power. The study examines the interaction between state and non-state actors involved in the conflict, including the role played by Iran and regional armed organizations such as Hezbollah, as well as the impact of the positioning of great powers, especially the United States, Russia and China. The research also explores three main dimensions of the transformation of global security: the risk of regional conflict expansion, the implications for international energy and trade security, and the impact on the emerging geopolitical architecture characterized by multipolar tendencies. The research results suggest that the war in the Middle East is not just a regional confrontation, but an accelerating factor in the transformation of the international security system, amplifying rivalries between great powers, energy vulnerabilities, and risks of instability in different regions of the world. In this context, the conflict becomes a defining element of the new global geopolitical configuration. |
| Keywords: | Middle East, War, Global Security, Geopolitics, Multipolarity, Regional Conflict, Energy And Energy Security, International Stability |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0638 |
| By: | Yonggeun Jung |
| Abstract: | Satellite data are increasingly used to measure economic activity, yet port-level trade remains largely unmeasured from space. This paper combines synthetic aperture radar imagery, nighttime lights, and port characteristics to measure monthly port-level maritime trade using only publicly available data. The model achieves strong out-of-sample accuracy for U.S. ports, with satellite signals and port attributes playing complementary roles. While absolute levels are difficult to extrapolate beyond the training domain, percentage changes are reliably recovered, as we confirm through a leave-one-region-out exercise and Monte Carlo simulation. Applying the framework to Russian ports after the 2022 sanctions, we detect shifts consistent with trade reorientation toward the Far East. The approach complements AIS-based methods by remaining robust to strategic signal manipulation. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.15444 |
| By: | Adrians, Helge |
| Abstract: | Russland kann diejenigen Tanker, die es zur Umgehung westlicher Ölsanktionen einsetzt, außerhalb seiner angrenzenden Seegebiete nur begrenzt schützen. In den vergangenen sechs Monaten ist es Frankreich, den USA und zuletzt Belgien gelungen, einzelne dieser technisch mangelhaften und oft intransparent registrierten Schiffe im Atlantik, in der Nordsee und im Mittelmeer anzuhalten, ohne dass Moskau dies verhindern konnte. Darin offenbart sich ein bekanntes strukturelles Problem der russischen Marine: Ihr fehlen große Überwasserkampfschiffe, um globale Seehandelswege zu patrouillieren. Deutschland sollte dieses Defizit stärker in Betracht ziehen und seine bislang auf die Ostsee konzentrierte Politik auch auf andere Seegebiete ausdehnen - etwa durch die Unterstützung von Festsetzungen entsprechender Tanker in der Nordsee. |
| Keywords: | Schattenflotte, Unterwasserinfrastruktur, 12-Meilen-Zone, Ausschließliche Wirtschaftszone, AWZ, Seerechtsübereinkommen, SRÜ, Estland, Finnland, Venezuela, near sea zone, far sea zone, oceanic zone, Alexander Moissejew, Nikolai Patruschew, Maritime Doktrin, Maritimes Kollegium, balanced fleet |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:340045 |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | Azerbaijan's substantial hydrocarbon endowment-particularly in crude oil and natural gas-plays a central role in shaping both its economic structure and governance model. The hydrocarbon sector constitutes the backbone of the national economy, accounting for a dominant share of fiscal revenues, export earnings, and macroeconomic stability. However, consistent with the literature on rentier state dynamics and resource dependence, the concentration of hydrocarbon rents has contributed to the consolidation of a highly centralized political system. Control over these revenues has enabled ruling elites to accumulate and sustain economic and political power, thereby limiting political pluralism and reinforcing the persistence of dominant leadership. This article examines how hydrocarbon wealth functions not only as an economic asset but also as an instrument of political control. Drawing on fiscal and sectoral data for the period 2007-2025, it shows how oil and gas revenues are accumulated in the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan (SOFAZ), transferred to the state budget, and disproportionately allocated to defense, law enforcement, and judicial institutions, thereby expanding the state's coercive capacity. The analysis also highlights a structural shift from oil to gas production and Azerbaijan's growing role as a gas supplier to Europe. At the same time, it identifies a parallel increase in political repression, reflected in a sharp rise in the number of political prisoners since 2022. The findings suggest that Azerbaijan's increasing geopolitical and energy importance has reduced external pressure for democratic reforms. Overall, the article argues that hydrocarbon revenues play a central role in sustaining authoritarian governance by reinforcing coercive institutions and limiting accountability. |
| Keywords: | Azerbaijan, Oil and Gas Production, Hydrocarbons revenues, Energy, SOFAZ, SOCAR, Budget expenditures, Defense and security budget, Judiciary, law enforcement and prosecution budget, Gas Exports to Europe, Political Repression, Political Prisoners, EU |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:340056 |