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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Ibadoghlu, Gubad |
| Abstract: | This article examines the implications of the European Union's recent energy policy developments, with a particular focus on the strategy to phase out Russian gas imports and diversify supply sources. It analyzes the vulnerabilities inherent in the EU's diversification approach, highlighting the introduction of new regulatory measures-most notably Regulation (EU) 2026/261-which establish strict controls to prevent the re-entry of Russian gas through third countries. These measures, including enhanced origin verification requirements, carry significant implications for external suppliers such as Azerbaijan and transit countries like Türkiye. The analysis identifies a structural dilemma facing the EU: despite diversification efforts, approximately 90% of its gas supply remains externally sourced, exposing the bloc to geopolitical risks, global price volatility, and long-term infrastructure lock-in. While dependence on Russian pipeline gas has declined sharply, the EU has increasingly shifted toward alternative suppliers, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, which accounted for an estimated 57% of EU LNG imports by 2025. This shift raises critical questions about whether diversification efforts are effectively reducing dependency or merely replacing one dominant supplier with another. The article argues that the EU's external energy policy must balance short-term energy security with long-term sustainability objectives. It concludes that the success of the EU's energy transition will depend not only on eliminating reliance on Russian gas but also on avoiding the creation of new structural dependencies. |
| JEL: | P16 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:339652 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | The global trade in animal products, excluding trade between European Union (EU) Member States, has grown significantly over the past two decades, reaching 226 billion euros in 2023. This represents approximately 17 % of total agricultural and agri-food trade. With a trade surplus of nearly 50 billion euros in 2024, the EU is the region in the world with the largest surplus for animal products. Despite the implementation of several free trade agreements, the EU's trade balance has improved markedly over the past twenty years, particularly thanks to dairy products and pork. While trade agreements with the United Kingdom and Canada have been beneficial to European trade, more restrictive measures were introduced in 2025 with Ukraine to curb a substantial rise in exports (notably for poultry) since the outbreak of the war. |
| Abstract: | Les échanges mondiaux de produits animaux, hors commerce entre les États membres de l'Union européenne (UE), ont fortement progressé au fil des deux dernières décennies pour atteindre 226 milliards d'euros en 2023, soit l'équivalent de 17 % du total des échanges de produits agricoles et agroalimentaires. Avec une balance commerciale proche de 50 milliards d'euros en 2024, l'UE est la zone la plus excédentaire au monde en produits animaux. En dépit de la mise en œuvre de plusieurs accords de libre-échange, le solde commercial de l'UE s'est nettement amélioré au fil des deux dernières décennies grâce surtout aux produits laitiers et à la viande porcine. Si les accords commerciaux signés avec le Royaume-Uni et le Canada ont été favorables au commerce européen, des mesures plus restrictives ont été appliquées en 2025 avec l'Ukraine pour contenir une hausse importante des exportations de ce pays depuis le déclenchement de la guerre, notamment en viande de volaille. |
| Keywords: | Animal production, Trade agreements, Imports, Exports, Competitiveness, Trade, Productions animales, Accords commerciaux, Importations, Exportations, Compétitivité, Commerce |
| Date: | 2026–03–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05575524 |
| By: | Gaskin, Thomas; Demirel, Guven; Wolfram, Marie-Therese; Duncan, Andrew |
| Abstract: | Global trade is shaped by a complex mix of factors beyond supply and demand, including tangible variables like transport costs and tariffs, as well as less quantifiable influences such as political and economic relations. Traditionally, economists model trade using gravity models, which rely on explicit covariates that might struggle to capture these subtler drivers of trade. In this work, we employ optimal transport and a deep neural network to learn a time-dependent cost function from data, without imposing a specific functional form. This approach consistently outperforms traditional gravity models in accuracy and has similar performance to three-way gravity models, while providing natural uncertainty quantification. Applying our framework to global food and agricultural trade, we show that low income countries experienced disproportionately higher increases in trade costs due to the war in Ukraine’s impact on wheat markets. We also analyse the effects of free-trade agreements and trade disputes with China, as well as Brexit’s impact on British trade with Europe, uncovering hidden patterns that trade volumes alone cannot reveal. |
| Keywords: | REF fund 2025/2026 |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2026–02–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137330 |