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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Russia’s war in Ukraine continues unabated, despite international efforts to broker a peace settlement. Nearly four years of full-scale war have taken a staggering social, humanitarian, and economic toll, with real GDP in 2025 estimated at about 20 percent below pre-war levels. The authorities have managed to maintain overall macroeconomic and financial stability, thanks to skillful policymaking and substantial external support. |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/058 |
| By: | Anda David (AFD - Agence française de développement); Jackline Wahba (University of Southampton); Rawane Yasser (AFD - Agence française de développement) |
| Abstract: | Egypt has experienced a major economic crisis since March 2022, which has had substantial impacts on food inflation and standards of living. This crisis was compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic, its global implications, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. For many Egyptians, international temporary migration and remittances have been coping mechanisms, allowing them to diversify their income. This paper investigates the role played by international migration as a livelihood strategy during the recent economic crisis. It highlights the trends and patterns of current overseas migration, return migration, remittances and migration intentions for the period covering the COVID-19 pandemic and the economic crisis. The findings show that while the international emigration rate has increased, the return migration rate has substantially declined. In addition, the profile of migrants has changed as the share of low educated migrants increased, as well as the share of those holding precarious jobs prior to migrating. There results suggest that recent economic conditions in Egypt may be reshaping the patterns of Egyptian migration. |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05521272 |
| By: | Hantsiak, Mykhailo |
| Abstract: | In Ukraine, the debt crisis has intensified, manifested in the growth of public liabilities, an expanding budget deficit, and increasing pressure on public finances. Limited domestic funding sources compel the state to actively borrow on the debt market, exceeding safe limits and heightening insolvency risks. Under these conditions, debt restructuring emerges as a key tool to prevent financial destabilization. Global experience provides insights into effective mechanisms that can be adapted to Ukraine’s realities to restore debt sustainability. The purpose of the study is to outline the key principles for implementing sovereign debt restructuring mechanisms, with a focus on global experience, to develop recommendations for their successful application in Ukraine. The study is based on official statistical data from Ukraine and international financial institutions, scientific publications, analytical reports, and examples of global debt restructuring cases. Methods of analysis and synthesis, comparative and statistical analysis, graphical methods, and the case study approach were employed to identify trends and assess the effectiveness of debt mechanisms. The necessity of restructuring as a key tool for stabilizing public finances has been substantiated. The effectiveness of restructuring mechanisms has been shown to depend on the depth of changes to debt conditions and coordination with creditors. Emphasis has been placed on the role of comprehensive reforms and fiscal consolidation. A comparison of global cases of successful and unsuccessful restructurings has been conducted. The main tools and approaches to their implementation have been systematized. The conclusion has been drawn on the advisability of adapting the best international practices to Ukraine’s conditions. Sovereign debt restructuring is a crucial tool for reducing debt burden and restoring financial stability, but its effectiveness depends on a comprehensive approach, coordination with creditors, and accompanying economic reforms. Global experience highlights the advisability of combining various mechanisms and implementing innovative tools. For Ukraine, the key lies in adapting the best international practices to national conditions and maintaining systematic dialogue with creditors to enhance debt sustainability. |
| Keywords: | restructuring, sovereign debt, financial instruments, government borrowings, debt sustainability, debt security, debt crisis |
| JEL: | E62 F30 F34 G38 H63 |
| Date: | 2025–09–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127547 |
| By: | Bento, Antonio M.; Koch, Nicolas; Marmarelis, Zissis E. |
| Abstract: | Recent natural gas price surges prompted the adoption of various policies, such as a natural gas price cap, aimed at preserving climate goals and preventing increases in wholesale electricity prices. However, it is unclear whether such policies are effective. Here, we take advantage of the unexpected spike in natural gas prices around the time of the Russian invasion into Ukraine to estimate the effects of such a spike on coal generation, carbon emissions, and wholesale electricity prices, highlighting its heterogeneous impacts in 13 EU countries that still rely on both coal and gas for electricity production. We use these estimates to show that the effectiveness of the gas price cap is limited, and instead propose an emergency response mechanism that would simultaneously safeguard the EU's climate policy and protect households from excessive fluctuation in natural gas prices. The proposed mechanism introduces an emergency auction reserve price within the existing EU Emissions Trading System, triggered automatically under predefined rules whenever gas prices reach unusually high levels. Revenues generated by the reserve price would be used to provide relief to consumers. Our results demonstrate that a modest emergency reserve price could serve as an effective response mechanism and that this approach overcomes key shortcomings of the widely used natural gas price cap. |
| Keywords: | European energy crisis, excessive natural gas prices, wholesale electricity prices, emission trading, decarbonization |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:337665 |
| By: | Milanovic, Branko; Ranaldi, Marco |
| Abstract: | Global capital income inequality has declined in the 21st century, with the Gini coefficient falling from 97% to 94%. Over the same period, the share of the world population with annual capital income above $100 increased from 12% to 27%. This implies more than a doubling of the number of individuals earning positive income from interest, dividends, rents, and privately-funded pensions. Most Western nations have lost positions in the global capital income ranking, in contrast to several developing countries, particularly China and Russia. When adjusting for missing capital income in surveys using national accounts, while the levels of inequality slightly vary across adjustment methods, the results consistently confirm a decreasing inequality trend. This is also confirmed when the capitalized wealth of billionaires is included in the analysis using Forbes lists. Overall, this paper provides new global evidence on the evolution, distribution, and measurement of capital income, and highlights its implications for inequality analysis in contemporary capitalism. |
| Keywords: | global linequality; capitalization; globalization |
| JEL: | D30 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137550 |
| By: | Темиргалиев Куаныш // Temirgaliyev Kuanysh (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | Данная статья посвящена применению метода оценки нейтральной процентной ставки, предложенного Л. Бенати (2023), к данным Казахстана. Метод основывается на наблюдении Л. Бенати (2020) об отношении скорости обращения денежного агрегата М1 и краткосрочных ставок. Протестированы условия необходимые для применения метода в Казахстане. На текущий момент использование метода без модификации не позволяет получить реалистичный уровень оценки, однако косвенные факторы указывают на то, что скорость обращения несет в себе информацию о движении нейтральной ставки. // This paper is devoted to the application of the neutral interest rate estimation method proposed by L. Benati (2023) to the data of Kazakhstan. The method is based on the observation of L. Benati (2020) on the ratio of the velocity of circulation of the M1 monetary aggregate and short-term rates. The conditions necessary for the application of the method in Kazakhstan have been tested. Currently, using the method without modification does not allow us to obtain a realistic assessment level, however, indirect factors indicate that, that the rate of circulation carries information about the movement of the neutral rate. |
| Keywords: | нейтральная ставка, скорость обращения, коинтеграция, neutral rate, money volocity, cointegration |
| JEL: | E43 E52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:70 |
| By: | Kaila, Matias; Pajarinen, Mika; Rouvinen, Petri; Ylhäinen, Ilkka |
| Abstract: | Abstract We analyze recent shifts in the financial conditions of Finnish enterprises, utilizing the European Central Bank’s survey data that captures the perspectives of both financial providers and targets. Our findings indicate that the financial environment for enterprises operating in Finland has recently tightened, both in absolute terms and relative to Nordic and European peers. These shifts have disproportionately affected growth-oriented and innovative enterprises that are pivotal to the structural renewal of the economy. The primary drivers of this contraction include Finland’s sluggish economic performance relative to its peers, a shift in risk appetite concerning future outlooks, and the realization of geopolitical risk following Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. Even by European standards, the Finnish business finance system remains exceptionally bank-centric. It is ill-suited for financing a future-facing economy rooted in intangible capital, high-risk ventures, and active ownership. To safeguard long-term renewal, the financial system must evolve toward a more market-driven structure with a greater emphasis on equity-based finance. |
| Keywords: | Business finance, Financial constraints, Banks, Creative destruction |
| JEL: | G21 G32 O16 G18 |
| Date: | 2026–03–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:briefs:176 |
| By: | Vipin P. Veetil |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a simple model of the world supply chain to estimate the effects of sanctions that restrict the flow of inputs from one country to another. Such restrictions operate through changes in the weights of the global production network: the sanctioning country ceases supplying certain inputs to the target country and reallocates its production to other destinations. Using the OECD Inter-Country Input--Output tables, we calibrate the model to assess the vulnerability of the Indian economy. We consider two classes of counterfactuals: restrictions on a single sector of a foreign country supplying India, and restrictions on all sectors of a foreign country supplying India. We then rank foreign countries and foreign country-sectors by the risk that their supply restrictions pose to economic activity in India. Our results show that India's greatest country-level vulnerability is to Saudi Arabia, followed by the United Arab Emirates, China, Singapore, the United States, and Russia. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.12128 |
| By: | Ахмет Алишер // Alisher Akhmet (National Bank of Kazakhstan) |
| Abstract: | В работе предлагается подход к краткосрочному прогнозированию валового внутреннего продукта (ВВП) Казахстана на основе динамической факторной модели (DFM), оцененной по широкой панели макроэкономических и отраслевых показателей. Модель позволяет извлечь латентные факторы, отражающие основные источники совместной динамики в экономике, и использовать их для прогнозирования ВВП в условиях неполной и асинхронной информации. Оценка факторов осуществляется в пространстве состояний с применением фильтра Калмана, что обеспечивает корректную обработку пропусков и различной периодичности данных. Для повышения устойчивости прогнозов и учета изменяющихся во времени взаимосвязей используется регуляризированная регрессионная спецификация с экспоненциальным затуханием весов наблюдений. Прогнозная точность модели оценивается в рамках расширяющегося окна, что позволяет имитировать условия реального прогнозного раунда и исключить использование будущей информации. Сравнение с наивным прогнозом и авторегрессионной моделью ВВП показывает, что факторная структура с регуляризацией обеспечивает существенное снижение прогнозной неопределенности и демонстрирует высокую информативность на краткосрочном горизонте. // This paper develops an approach to short-term forecasting of Kazakhstan’s gross domestic product (GDP) based on a dynamic factor model (DFM) estimated using a broad panel of macroeconomic and sectoral indicators. The model enables the extraction of latent factors that represent the main sources of common variation in the economy and their use for forecasting GDP under conditions of incomplete and asynchronous information. The factors are estimated within a state-space framework using the Kalman filter, which allows for a consistent treatment of missing observations and mixed data frequencies. To enhance forecast robustness and accommodate time variation in economic relationships, a regularized regression specification with exponential decay of observation weights is applied. Forecast performance is assessed using an expanding-window evaluation scheme that replicates real-time forecasting conditions and precludes the use of future information. A comparison with a naïve benchmark and an autoregressive model of GDP indicates that the regularized factor-based specification substantially reduces forecast uncertainty and yields more informative short-term forecasts. |
| Keywords: | динамические факторные модели, прогнозирование ВВП, nowcasting, регуляризация, dynamic factor models, GDP forecasting, nowcasting, regularization |
| JEL: | C32 C38 C51 C53 E32 O47 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aob:wpaper:69 |
| By: | Heather Hennerich |
| Abstract: | High inflation in the former Soviet Union, an economic crisis in Costa Rica and economic shocks in Nigeria helped shape three economists' childhood views of their future careers. |
| Date: | 2024–05–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:l00100:102727 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/060 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Recovery from multiple shocks is underway, although Moldova continues to experience high emigration, low competitiveness, and limited capacity. EU accession and the EU Growth Plan (GP) aim to promote growth-enhancing reforms and investments. The Fund supported programs (ECF/EFF and RSF), which expired in October 2025, helped preserve macroeconomic stability amid multiple shocks and advance structural reforms. |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/059 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Moldova’s financial sector is small, dominated by commercial banks. Since the last FSAP and banking crisis in 2014, the authorities notably improved bank oversight, financial safety net and crisis management frameworks, and the anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) regime. |
| Date: | 2026–03–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/061 |