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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of the russia's full-scale invasion on the Ukrainian corporate labor market. We use the DID technique to analyze a panel data set of over 100, 000 firms linked to geolocation and industry data spanning 2021-2024 and show how war harms the corporate labor market in Ukraine. Specifically, our findings evidence that destructive military shocks adversely affected the number of employees hired, productivity, and wages paid in the corporate sector. We emphasize that the war effects are heterogeneous across firm size and labor intensity and depend on external debt and bank financing. The results obtained have considerable policy implications, making them valuable to both researchers and policymakers. |
| Keywords: | Labor market; War; employment; productivity; wages; Ukraine |
| JEL: | H56 J21 J23 J31 O12 |
| Date: | 2026–02–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp03-2026 |
| By: | Harsh Wardhan (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Aishwarya Rohatgi (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | With Western sanctions isolating Russia from traditional trade partners, ongoing disruptions in global agri-supply chains, and rising food demand in Central Asia, India has a timely opportunity to reposition itself as a credible, long-term supplier of agricultural and processed food products to the region. This report, developed under the APEDA-ICRIER Knowledge Partnership, draws from trade data, policy analysis, and field consultations with exporters and officials to offer a roadmap for unlocking India's agri-export potential to three key CIS markets Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. |
| Keywords: | agri-market, agri-supply chain, APEDA, icrier |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:report:26-r-04 |
| By: | Kosyakova, Yuliya (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jaschke, Philipp (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Wagner, Simon (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine has been ongoing for almost four years and has triggered the largest refugee movement in Europe since the Second World War. By the end of 2024, around 6.7 million Ukrainians had sought protection abroad, including approximately one million in Germany. This report analyses how the labour market integration of Ukrainian refugees has evolved since their arrival in Germany. The analyses are based on data from the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, which are linked with the Integrated Employment Biographies (IEB), providing detailed longitudinal information on employment, earnings, benefit receipt, and participation in labour market policy measures." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Integrierte Erwerbsbiografien ; IAB-BAMF-SOEP-Befragung von Geflüchteten |
| Date: | 2026–02–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202603 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | For Poland, Russia’s war in Ukraine represented a major downward shock to output and upward shock to inflation. However, the strong real wage growth and fiscal stimulus of recent years have driven a nearly full closing of the output gap. In addition, inflation has returned to target due to both appropriately tight monetary policy and a subsiding of external supply shocks. The main vulnerability that emerged from recent years is an increase in the fiscal deficit to a projected 7 percent of GDP in 2025. This has raised public debt to 59 percent of GDP, a 10 percentage point increase in two years. |
| Date: | 2026–02–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/025 |
| By: | Grömling, Michael |
| Abstract: | In den krisengeplagten Jahren seit 2020 kam es in Deutschland zu einem Ausfall an Wirtschaftsleistungen von nahezu einer Billion Euro. Allein ein Viertel davon entfällt auf das vergangene Jahr. Je Erwerbstätigen entspricht dies einem Wertschöpfungsverlust von insgesamt deutlich über 20.000 Euro durch die Pandemie, die Folgewirkungen des Kriegs in der Ukraine und die konfrontative Politik der USA. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:336908 |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | Social trust constitutes a central component of social cohesion, a key determinant of economic development, and a foundational element of stable and effective democratic systems. Exposure to violence can undermine trust by disrupting collective cooperation and altering the established patterns of social interaction. This study uses the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian war to explore how social trust changes during conflict, while distinguishing between two primary influences – ideological and experiential. The former are defined as individuals’ alignment with wartime ideologies. The latter are limited to perceived deteriorations in personal safety and mental health caused by experiences of violence. The analysis is based on structural equation modelling, using data collected from 1, 224 respondents through an online survey conducted in 2024. The findings show that experiential influences erode trust not only directly but also indirectly, mainly through reduced confidence in state institutions. Ideological influences provide a partial buffer against these negative consequences, insufficient, however, to offset them. As a result, the net effect of the war on social trust remains negative and sizeable among Ukrainians. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, ideological mobilization, social trust, structural equation modelling, Ukraine. |
| JEL: | C01 D74 Z10 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127475 |
| By: | Nebiler, Metin; Park, Kyunglin |
| Abstract: | Digital skills are becoming increasingly more important in the labor market as demand for them is increasing in all sectors. This paper explores the determinants of digital skill acquisition and estimates the impact of digital skills on wages in developing countries by using the latest round of the Life in Transition Survey from 30 countries in the Europe and Central Asia region. The results show that acquisition of digital skills is correlated with individual characteristics including age, education, and gender but also with household characteristics such as household income, place of residence, and parents’ educational attainment. These disparities translate directly into labor market outcomes: individuals with advanced digital skills earn, on average, 18.9 percent higher wages than those without such skills, with substantial heterogeneity within and between regions. The wage premium for high digital skills is higher in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe. Moreover, the results show that larger firms offer significantly higher premiums for digital skills. |
| Date: | 2026–02–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11308 |
| By: | Walid Chkili (University of Tunis El Manar); Samir Mabrouk (University of Sousse) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the risk dependence between clean energy, oil prices and GCC stock markets during the period 2015-2023 covering the two recent events of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukrainian conflict. The main purpose is to investigate the volatility spillovers of clean and dirty energy markets versus GCC stock indices. We use two methodologies namely the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2014) volatility spillover index and the wavelet coherence analysis. The Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness index shows that oil prices, KSA and Kuwait stock markets are the net transmitter of shocks while clean energy index and the stock markets of UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman are net receiver of volatility. The wavelet coherency approach reveals that the dependence between clean energy/oil prices and the stock markets varies across time scales and considered countries. The intense coherence is detected during the oil crash and the COVID-19 crisis at low frequencies (high scales). The findings have several financial implications for investors and portfolio managers. The GCC investors should add either clean energy or crude oil to their portfolio of stocks in order to minimize the risk of portfolio. The hedging ratios show that both clean energy and crude oil offer effective hedging strategies. Finally, the hedging effectiveness index reveals a higher reduction of hedged portfolio risk involving clean energy than crude oil. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1764 |
| By: | Schaller, Christian |
| Abstract: | Die Bundesrepublik Deutschland versteht sich als Verteidigerin des Völkerrechts und bekennt sich zu einer "regelbasierten internationalen Ordnung" (rules-based international order). Dabei handelt es sich um ein politisches Konzept mit unscharfen Konturen, das neben völkerrechtlichen Normen auch rechtlich unverbindliche Regeln, Praktiken und Standards als Elemente der internationalen Ordnung einschließt. China und Russland stellen die regelbasierte Ordnung als ein westliches Konstrukt dar, das darauf abziele, Völkerrecht durch selbstgeschaffene und nicht allgemein legitimierte Regeln zu ersetzen. Westlichen Staaten gehe es darum, eigene Interessen mithilfe solcher Regeln durchzusetzen und gleichzeitig "Systemrivalen" Regelverstöße vorwerfen zu können. Auf die USA als einstigen Verfechter der rules-based order können sich Deutschland und Europa nicht mehr verlassen. Die Trump-Regierung untergräbt systematisch das Fundament, das eine solche Ordnung tragen soll; das Völkerrecht spielt für Trump weder als Maßstab außenpolitischen Handelns noch als strukturierender Faktor der internationalen Politik eine Rolle. Umso wichtiger ist es für die Bundesrepublik, die noch vorhandenen Strukturen einer regelbasierten Ordnung gemeinsam mit anderen Staaten zu erhalten und auszubauen. Vorrangiges Ziel muss es sein, das Völkerrecht als Kern dieser Ordnung zu stabilisieren. China beansprucht in Weltordnungsfragen für sich, als Interessenvertreter des Globalen Südens aufzutreten, und verfügt dabei inzwischen über erhebliche Diskursmacht. Als Gegenentwurf zum Modell der rules-based order propagiert Peking das Leitbild einer "völkerrechtsbasierten internationalen Ordnung". Vor diesem Hintergrund bedarf es einer vertieften Auseinandersetzung mit den chinesischen Ordnungsvorstellungen. Wie definiert Peking eine völkerrechtsbasierte internationale Ordnung? In welchen Punkten weicht dieses Verständnis von eigenen normativen Positionen ab, und welche Konsequenzen ergeben sich, wenn China Völkerrecht nach seiner Lesart durchsetzt? |
| Keywords: | Völkerrecht, regelbasierte internationale Ordnung, rules-based order, Volksrepublik China, Russische Föderation, Vereinigte Staaten, US-Präsident Donald Trump, systemische Rivalität, Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie (2023) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:336781 |
| By: | Quimba, Francis Mark A.; Barral, Mark Anthony A. |
| Abstract: | This study develops a multidimensional Geoeconomic Fragmentation (GEF) Index and applies structural gravity modeling to quantify how rising geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions reshape ASEAN and Philippine commodity trade. Using dyad–product–year data (2000–2024), the GEF index integrates political distance, sanctions exposure, tariff barriers, trade intensity, and import volatility. A suite of Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) models—including baseline, structural, and bloc-interaction specifications—captures how fragmentation and global shocks (such as the trade war, COVID-19, the Russia–Ukraine war, and the chip and shipping crises) differentially affect trade with China, the EU, the US, and the rest of the world. Results show that fragmentation reroutes rather than reduces trade, generating asymmetric losses across commodities and identifying highly vulnerable export and import lines for ASEAN and the Philippines. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN trade, commodity vulnerability, geoeconomic fragmentation, gravity model, international trade, political distance, sanctions, supply-chain shocks, tariff barriers, trade diversion, trade intensity |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-49 |
| By: | Nolke, Andreas; Schnyder, Gerhard; Sallai, Dorottya; Kinderman, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The treatment of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) by populist right-wing governments presents a puzzle: At times, these governments support, at times they take aggressive action against foreign MNEs. Allegorically speaking, rather than using their one hundred hands to slay the Titans like the Centimanes of Greek mythology, right-wing populist governments seem to use fifty hands of the state to support and fifty others to handicap foreign MNEs. How can we explain the ambiguity of populist international business policy adopted by governments that adhere to economically nationalist rhetoric, ideologies, and goals? Our article contributes to these debates by theorising the factors that determine right-wing populist governments’ multi-handed approach to MNEs. We empirically discuss these factors based on a mixed methods design by comparing host country cases (Hungary, Poland), home country cases (China/Russia vs. Western countries), and industry cases (finance, manufacturing). We demonstrate that the common denominator of the multi-handed approach by right-wing populist governments is their desire to decrease the presence of foreign multinationals in politically valuable sectors, but that this desire is tempered by political and economic restrictions, notably including their electoral fragility, the need for technology transfer, and limited alternative sources of foreign direct investment (FDI). |
| Keywords: | East Central Europe; right-wing populism; economic policy; foreign direct investment; multinational enterprises |
| JEL: | L81 |
| Date: | 2026–02–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137314 |