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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Muharrem Cevik (Bilecik Seyh Edebali University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how sanctions affect Russia's bilateral creative trade, focusing on the sanction episodes following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Using annual bilateral data for 197 countries over the period 2002-2023 and drawing on recent advances in gravity-based trade estimation, the analysis situates sanctions involving Russia within a general-equilibrium-consistent global trade framework. The results show that sanctions involving Russia are associated with large and persistent declines in Russia's bilateral creative trade, with effects intensifying across successive sanction episodes. The magnitude of these effects varies substantially across partner countries and by sanction direction, suggesting notable heterogeneity in Russia's creative trade responses to sanctions. |
| Keywords: | Creative Trade; Sanctions; Gravity Model; Russia |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F51 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drx:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | The German economy has been hit with large shocks in recent years, including an energy-price shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, rapid monetary tightening required to contain subsequent inflation, and heightened trade-related headwinds. These external shocks, together with weak underlying productivity growth, in part due to stalled structural reforms at both the EU and German level, have contributed to three years of negative or very low growth. |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2026/036 |
| By: | Petrick, Martin; Robinson, Sarah; Kosimov, Alisher |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the transformation of livestock value chains in peri-urban areas of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, focusing on the dynamics of livestock production, land use, and downstream supply chains. Drawing on unique farm-level data and qualitative research, we examine the limited progress of agri-food value chain modernisation in the region. Findings reveal that while urban demand for meat and processed food has grown, the smallholder-dominated livestock sector remains constrained by deficient fodder resources, fragmented production, and limited access to modern processing and retail channels. Despite massive growth of livestock numbers kept in rural households, livestock intensification has progressed only slowly, with large-scale enterprises representing a small but dynamic segment. Our survey data shows that smallholders rely heavily on informal market arrangements and local sales channels, often constrained by insufficient vertical coordination and limited quality enforcement. Large enterprises and feedlots often benefit from government support and exhibit advanced integration, with enhanced genetics, own processing plants, and branded retailing. This bifurcated structure in the livestock sector underscores challenges in transitioning toward modern value chains. Government interventions, including subsidies and cooperative development, have largely failed to integrate smallholders or address systemic bottlenecks. We discuss the options for inclusive strategies, such as strengthening public governance or leveraging medium-scale farmers. Our findings highlight the delayed transformation of Central Asia's livestock value chains compared to other emerging economies. We suggest that in Central Asia, intensive larger farms have some potentials to overcome many of the trade-offs inherent in the prevailing smallholder livestock systems. |
| Keywords: | Livestock value chains, Central Asia, Smallholder farming, Agri-food transformation, Peri-urban livestock systems |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iamodp:336247 |
| By: | Sebastian Ottinger; Elizaveta Zelnitskaia |
| Abstract: | Why do cities emerge where they do? This paper exploits a rule-based transport network in Imperial Russia to study the origins of urban centers. The yams postal system, introduced by the Mongols in the thirteenth century and maintained by Muscovy, required relay stations in regular intervals to change horses, creating an infrastructure grid whose spacing reflected logistics rather than geography or pre-existing settlements. We digitize all stations listed in the 1777 Russian Road Guide along a sample of 15 major routes, and divide rays between consecutive stops into 0.5 km cells. In modern satellite data, cells located at the historical interval where horses were changed are about thirty percent brighter today than neighboring cells before or after that range. The effect is robust to first- and second-nature controls, ray fixed effects, and controlling of pre-1800 settlements, and is absent for the later Trans-Siberian Railway. Additional analyses show that subsequent city growth correlates little with geographic endowments, but was amplified by later infrastructure investments, suggesting that administrative accidents – not natural advantages – seeded some of Russia’s urban geography. The findings illustrate how spatial inequality can arise from arbitrary historical coordination points, with lasting consequences for the distribution of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | City Location, Path Dependence, Transport Infrastructure, Natural Advantage |
| JEL: | N73 O18 R11 R12 H11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp807 |
| By: | Klingebiel, Stephan; Sumner, Andrew |
| Abstract: | The global development landscape entering 2026 is shaped by deep geopolitical disruptions, significantly intensified by the return of President Trump and the acceleration of systemic rivalry, conflict and multipolar competition. Development policy now unfolds in an environment where multilateral norms are weakening, Western cohesion is fracturing and Global South actors increasingly exercise greater agency through strategies of multi-alignment. Cuts to ODA budgets across traditional donor countries, paralysis in the UN development system and US hostility towards Agenda 2030 have collectively unsettled the development architecture, prompting a proliferation of commissions and processes seeking to rethink future cooperation. We identify four issues that we think will be of high importance for global development policy in 2026 and beyond and situate these within the context outlined above. Issue I. China's transition towards high-income status and the implications for its evolving role in global development debates Economically, China is approaching graduation from the list of ODA-eligible countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC), yet politically it continues to claim "developing country" status as part of a deliberate strategy to anchor itself within Global South coalitions. This duality provides significant diplomatic and narrative leverage. China's expanding suite of global initiatives - from the Belt and Road Initiative to the new Global Governance Initiative - gives it increasing influence over international agenda-setting, especially as some Western actors retreat from traditional development roles. OECD countries must, therefore, craft engagement strategies that can accommodate China's hybrid positioning while defending coherent standards for global responsibility-sharing. Issue II. Russia's influence in the Global South Although Russia lacks a credible development model, it wields significant spoiler power through arms provision, disinformation operations and especially nuclear energy cooperation. Rosatom's integrated nuclear packages are appealing to many African countries, creating long-term dependencies and expanding Moscow's geopolitical reach - an area largely overlooked in Western development strategies. Issue III. The rise of non-democratic governance across much of the Global South and its consequences for global governance With the majority of the population now living in electoral autocracies or closed autocracies, democratic backsliding undermines the foundations of global governance. Normative contestation, institutional fragmentation, legitimacy deficits, geopolitical bargaining and uneven provision of global public goods increasingly shape multilateral cooperation. Issue IV. How both Southern middle powers and smaller countries are adjusting to the changing environment Countries such as Brazil, Indonesia, Turkey, South Africa and the Gulf states are capitalising on systemic volatility to expand influence through multi-alignment, new coalitions and diversified cooperation instruments. For external actors, accepting multi-alignment as a stable feature will be essential for building effective, issue-based partnerships in areas such as climate, health, food systems and digital public infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | geopolitics, Trump, multipolarity, Global South, development policy, ODA, devlopment cooperation, Agenda 2030, China, Russia, global governance |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:335912 |
| By: | Süß, Juliana |
| Abstract: | Space capabilities are a core element of any modern defence arsenal. In Europe, however, military space capabilities are limited and dependence on the United States remains high. Europe must develop its capabilities in order to reduce dependencies and enhance its capacity to act on its own, thereby fostering European autonomy. To ensure that European space capabilities are developed efficiently, it is necessary to identify which dependencies on the US are particularly critical and which obstacles would hinder the development of such capabilities. Priority should be given to space situational awareness, military reconnaissance, navigation resilience and missile early warning. |
| Keywords: | Space capabilities, United States, Europe, European Space Agency (ESA), Starlink, dependency, space situational awareness, satellite communication, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), Positioning, Navigation and Timing (PNT), early warning, nflict, Russia, NATO |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:335919 |
| By: | Irma Alonso-Alvarez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Ekaterina Bukina (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Marina Diakonova (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Nino Khitarishvili (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Javier J. Pérez (BANCO DE ESPAÑA); Pedro Piqueras (BANCO DE ESPAÑA) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a comprehensive database of geopolitical risk (GPR) indices for 34 countries, constructed using a standardized textual analysis methodology applied to national news sources. Building on the framework introduced in Alonso-Alvarez et al. (2025), we calculate both general and bilateral GPR indices that reflect the intensity and origin of geopolitical tensions as perceived in domestic media narratives. The indices are derived from a dictionary-based approach applied to press articles accessed via the Factiva platform, with queries translated into 15 languages to ensure linguistic and cultural relevance. Bilateral indices focus on four key regions – Russia, China, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Western Bloc – capturing how each country perceives external geopolitical threats. The resulting high-frequency dataset is validated through statistical robustness checks and narrative analysis of index peaks. Our work contributes to the literature by offering a scalable, globally representative tool for analyzing geopolitical risk, complementing existing measurements such as the Caldara-Lacoviello GPR index and enabling new empirical applications in macroeconomics, finance and international relations. |
| Keywords: | geopolitical risk, geopolitical tensions, textual analysis |
| JEL: | C43 E32 F51 F52 H56 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:opaper:2603e |
| By: | Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Cuts to agricultural development assistance and food aid by the United States and other advanced economies are creating a global vacuum just as climate change and conflict drive global hunger up. Many food-insecure developing economies with significant hunger lack the resources to self-finance agricultural research and development (R&D) and have had to depend increasingly on themselves--and one another--to meet rising food needs. Hendrix argues that the BRICS+ economies--Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia--are well positioned to fill the world's food security gap. Key Takeaways For BRICS+, the stakes are existential because hunger and climate vulnerability are clear domestic challenges, not distant risks. Investments in climate-resilient, regionally adapted crop research would provide self-insurance and also help stabilize neighboring fragile states, where food insecurity drives migration. The returns to investments will be greatest if they are accompanied by science-based regulatory reforms. Governments of economies wary of biotechnology should educate the public and reform regulations to reap the benefits of advanced agricultural technologies. BRICS+ have the scientific know-how, institutional capacity, and capital to underwrite a massive increase in public agricultural R&D funding. Doing so would be an opportunity to demonstrate that they are capable of providing global leadership. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb26-4 |
| By: | Lippert, Barbara (Ed.); Mair, Stefan (Ed.) |
| Abstract: | Die Epoche der Pax Americana, die nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg Deutschlands und Europas Sicherheit garantierte, kommt an ihr Ende. Die Europäer können sich nicht mehr auf die Allianz und Partnerschaft mit den USA verlassen. Deshalb sucht Europa Wege aus der gefährlichen Abhängigkeit von Washington, die - auch über die Präsidentschaft von Donald Trump hinaus - Frieden, Demokratie und Wohlstand auf dem Kontinent sichern. Das ist nicht von heute auf morgen zu bewerkstelligen, sondern erfordert über die nächsten fünf bis zehn Jahre einen erheblichen Aufwuchs an Ressourcen und strategische Überlegungen. Die vierzehn Beiträge dieser SWP-Studie zeigen, wie unterschiedlich die Ausgangsbedingungen und Potentiale je nach Politikfeld und Herausforderungen sind, um Strategien des Übergangs zu entwickeln. Dabei zeihen die Europäer mit Blick auf Washington ein Miteinander, Ohneeinander und sogar Gegeneinander ins Kalkül. Entsprechend fallen die Analysen zur Agency der Europäer und den Spielräumen für eine europäische Russland-, Nahost- und Chinapolitik sehr differenziert aus. Die Trumpsche Logik des schnellen Dealmakings und der Unilateralismus unter den Vorzeichen von "MAGA" kollidieren vielfach und prinzipiell mit der multilateralen, an das Völkerrecht gebundenen Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik und einem nachhaltigen Friedensengagement der EU. Stichworte für die dringliche Neuorganisation von Sicherheit in Europa sind die Europäisierung der Nato und eigene militärische Fähigkeiten, neue sicherheitspolitische Führungskonstellationen in Europa und eine Governance in der Technologie- und Cybersicherheitspolitik, die konfliktfähig und resilient ist. Auch in der geopolitischen Zeitenwende sollte die EU ihre Soft Power fortentwickeln. Bei den existentiellen Fragen des globalen Regierens - von der UN- und Völkerrechtspolitik über die internationale Handelspolitik bis hin zur Klima- und Energiepolitik - müssen die Europäer neue Partnerschaften und gegebenenfalls auch neue institutionelle Lösungen ohne und gegen die USA finden. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpstu:335877 |