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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Douglas, Nadja |
| Abstract: | The European security order is dysfunctional and particularly affected by the crisis of multilateralism. The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), founded as a forum for promoting cooperative security and standardsbased cooperation, today is an expression of the weakness of traditional multilateral institutions. The reporting system in the politico-military dimension of the OSCE is a seismograph for the change in norms and dynamics among participating States. However, it also shows that despite the changes at the political-strategic level and the politicization of the official agenda, the implementation of agreements at the technical-military level of the OSCE continues quite smoothly. This presents opportunities but also risks that the 57 participating States should be aware of. |
| Keywords: | crisis of multilateralism, Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), United Nations (UN) Charter, Helsinki Principles, Russia, war against Ukraine, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), confidence- and security-building measures (CSBMs), Code of Conduct on Politico-Military Aspects of Security (CoC), Vienna Document (VD) on CSBMs |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334568 |
| By: | Isachenko, Daria |
| Abstract: | Ankara's role in Central Asia is often assessed through the "Great Game" lens, in which Turkey is supposed to challenge the influence of Russia and China. On the one hand, such a perspective attests to the growing role of Turkey in the region. On the other hand, this view ignores the agency of Central Asian states and the established multi-vector foreign policies, meaning that cooperation with Ankara is a complement to, rather than a replacement for, their interactions with other actors. As the European Union (EU) seeks to engage in Central Asia, its approach will need to accommodate the diversification pattern prevailing in the region. |
| Keywords: | Central Asia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Cyprus, multi-vector foreign policies, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), European Union (EU), Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA), Organization of Turkic States (OTS), Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)" |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334557 |
| By: | Giacomo Anastasia; Tito Boeri; Oleksandr Zholud |
| Abstract: | Wars disrupt labor markets, yet systematic evidence on how markets for labor services operate during conflicts is almost entirely absent. Ukraine is a rare exception: despite the full-scale Russian invasion, timely data on workers and vacancies, in both stocks and flows, remain available. We use these data to document one of the largest labor supply and reallocation shocks in recent history and to estimate the impact on job matching, showing how labor markets adapt under extreme stress. The labor force shrank by about one fourth, yet vacancy filling rates and matching efficiency declined modestly. Only along the frontline and in occupied regions there is evidence of labor market shutdowns. Wage flexibility, adaptability of recruitment policies of firms, and remote working help explain the resiliency of labor outcomes. Recovering longer-term human capital losses suffered by Ukraine will require a mix of tools going well beyond labor policies and should be a priority for the reconstruction phase. |
| Keywords: | labor supply shock, reallocation, vacancy filling rate, wartime economy, wartime labor market, Russian invasion, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2026–01–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2142 |
| By: | Andriy Tsapin (National Bank of Ukraine; National University of Ostroh Academy); Oleksandr Zholud (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes the dynamics of the labor market in Ukraine during the full-scale russian invasion, emphasizing the need to account for profound structural changes in this market. We derive estimates of labor force participation and unemployment rates using survey data collected by Info Sapiens for the National Bank of Ukraine and controlling for sample composition. Participation fell by about nine percentage points between 2022 and 2025, while the unemployment rate peaked at 25 percent in May 2022 and gradually declined to 9 percent by December 2024. We corrected possible biases by including potentially omitted variables in our regressions. Regional and demographic disparities were pronounced during the war: Kyiv maintained lower unemployment, the east of the country was hardest hit, and the urban-rural gap narrowed after 2023. The gender gap in the labor market decreased but remained significant during the war. Education proved decisive for job retention, with university and vocational training significantly improving labor participation and employment outcomes. Our findings provide robust evidence of the adjustment of the labor market under extreme conditions and offer essential policy lessons for sustaining employment during the ongoing war. |
| Keywords: | Ukraine, labor market conditions, unemployment, war |
| JEL: | H56 J21 J64 O12 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:04/2025 |
| By: | Aleksandra Kislenok (Federal Autonomous Scientific Institution «Eastern State Planning Centre») |
| Abstract: | The development of any territorial system is the resulting dynamics of its components – in the case of a regions of the Russian Federation – its constituent municipalities. It is at this level that economic agents and residents directly come into contact with the results of state policy to create favorable conditions for doing business and comfortable living. Comparative studies of socio-economic dynamics on a municipal region make it possible to identify territories with similar development characteristics, which forms a rationale for the implementation of targeted regional policy measures in relation to specific groups of territories. The article proposes a methodology for comparative assessment of the level of development of municipalities, based on integral assessments of the achieved level of economic development, economic dynamics and living conditions in the territory. An approach has been developed to group municipalities depending on the integrated estimates obtained in these areas. Length: 12 pages |
| Keywords: | system of indicators, socio-economic development, municipalities, living conditions |
| JEL: | O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aln:wpaper:350-00001-25-1 |
| By: | Benjamin Jungmann; Eckhard Hein; Juan Manuel Campana |
| Abstract: | Post-Keynesian conflict inflation models have received renewed attention in the course of the recent inflationary processes related to the recovery from the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and the hike of energy prices in the context of the start of the Russian war on Ukraine in 2022. Although the basic principles of conflict inflation can be presented in a closed economy framework (e.g. Hein 2023, chap. 5), examining current sources and triggers of inflation requires open economy models. Post-Keynesian economics has presented several of these models (e.g. Blecker 2011, Vera 2014, Bastian and Setterfield 2020), which differ in the role assigned to the nominal and the real exchange rate (RER), on the one hand, and the stability of the wage and price Phillips curves, on the other hand. This paper first provides a systematic overview of post-Keynesian open economy conflict inflation models using the treatment of the RER and the stability of the Phillips curve as the main clustering criteria. Second, it provides a model including an unstable Phillips curve and a policy rule targeting a certain RER in response towards trade imbalances. The model distinguishes three equilibrium rates of employment: the goods market equilibrium rate of employment, the distribution claims equilibrium and hence stable inflation rate of employment, and finally the external balance equilibrium rate of employment. The interaction of these three rates drives the system. Finally, the model examines the conditions for an overall equilibrium and its stability. |
| Keywords: | conflict inflation, open economy, exchange rate policy, post-Keynesian model |
| JEL: | E12 E31 E61 F41 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:fmmpap:120-2025 |
| By: | Mykhailo Hantsiak (State Research Institute for Informatization and Economic Modeling) |
| Abstract: | Ukraine's debt crisis has intensified, reflected in rising public liabilities, a widening budget deficit, and growing pressure on public finances. Limited domestic funding sources force the state to borrow actively on the debt market, exceeding safe thresholds and increasing insolvency risks. Under these conditions, sovereign debt restructuring becomes a crucial tool to prevent financial destabilization. The study identifies key principles for implementing restructuring mechanisms based on global experience and develops recommendations for their adaptation to Ukraine's context. Using official statistical data, analytical reports, and international case studies, the research demonstrates that the effectiveness of restructuring depends on the depth of debt condition adjustments and coordination with creditors. The role of structural reforms and fiscal consolidation is emphasized. It is concluded that adapting the best international practices is essential to strengthen Ukraine's public debt sustainability. |
| Abstract: | La crise de la dette en Ukraine s'est intensifiée, marquée par la croissance des engagements publics, l'élargissement du déficit budgétaire et la pression accrue sur les finances publiques. Les ressources de financement internes limitées contraignent l'État à emprunter activement sur le marché de la dette, ce qui dépasse les seuils de sécurité et accroît les risques d'insolvabilité. Dans ce contexte, la restructuration de la dette souveraine devient un outil essentiel pour prévenir la déstabilisation financière. L'étude vise à identifier les principes fondamentaux de la mise en œuvre des mécanismes de restructuration, en s'appuyant sur l'expérience internationale, afin de formuler des recommandations adaptées aux réalités ukrainiennes. La recherche repose sur des données statistiques officielles, des rapports analytiques et des exemples mondiaux de restructuration. Les résultats démontrent que l'efficacité des mécanismes dépend de la profondeur des ajustements des conditions de la dette et de la coordination avec les créanciers. L'accent est mis sur le rôle des réformes structurelles et de la consolidation budgétaire. Il est conclu que l'adaptation des meilleures pratiques internationales constitue la clé pour renforcer la soutenabilité de la dette publique en Ukraine. |
| Abstract: | В Україні загострилася боргова криза, що проявляється у зростанні державних зобов'язань, розширенні бюджетного дефіциту та посиленні тиску на фінанси. Обмежені внутрішні джерела фінансування змушують державу активніше залучати кошти на ринку боргу, перевищуючи безпечні межі та підвищуючи ризики неплатоспроможності. За таких умов реструктуризація боргу стає ключовим інструментом запобігання фінансовій дестабілізації. Світовий досвід дає змогу визначити ефективні механізми та адаптувати їх до українських реалій для відновлення боргової стійкості. Метою дослідження є окреслення ключових засад реалізації механізмів реструктуризації суверенного боргу з фокусом на світовий досвід для розробки рекомендацій їх успішного застосування в Україні. Методи. Дослідження ґрунтується на офіційних статистичних даних України та міжнародних фінансових інституцій, наукових публікаціях, аналітичних звітах і прикладах світових кейсів реструктуризації. Використано методи аналізу й синтезу, порівняльний і статистичний аналіз, графічний метод та кейс-метод для виявлення тенденцій і оцінки ефективності боргових механізмів. Результати. Обґрунтовано необхідність реструктуризації як ключового інструменту стабілізації державних фінансів. Доведено залежність ефективності механізмів від глибини змін умов боргу та координації з кредиторами. Акцентовано на ролі комплексних реформ і фіскальної консолідації. Порівняно світові кейси успішних і неуспішних реструктуризацій. Систематизовано основні інструменти та підходи їх реалізації. Зроблено висновок про доцільність адаптації кращих міжнародних практик до українських умов. Висновки. Реструктуризація суверенного боргу є важливим інструментом зниження боргового навантаження та відновлення фінансової стабільності, проте її ефективність залежить від комплексного підходу, координації з кредиторами та супроводу економічними реформами. Світовий досвід свідчить про доцільність поєднання різних механізмів і впровадження інноваційних інструментів. Для України ключовим є адаптація кращих міжнародних практик до національних умов і системний діалог із кредиторами задля підвищення боргової стійкості. |
| Keywords: | financial instruments, debt security, government borrowings, sovereign debt, restructuring, restructuring sovereign debt, debt crisis, реструктуризація, державний борг, фінансові інструменти, державні запозичення, боргова стійкість, боргова безпека, debt sustainability |
| Date: | 2025–10–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05355399 |
| By: | Edward L Glaeser (Harvard University and NBER); Martina Kirchberger (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Andrii Parkhomenko (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities. We start by outlining key facts about Ukraine and its cities: (i) the country's population is declining; (ii) there is a shift in demand for housing from east to west; (iii) Kyiv's advantage is growing; (iv) house prices are rising in Kyiv and western cities, (v) Ukraine's cities are slow and congested. We then present a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine's rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure. Finally, we consider the cost curve for reconstruction, as determined, in particular, by the cost of materials, labor, the industrial organization of the building industry and public practices in procurement and regulation. We highlight three broad strategies for shifting the cost curve: openness, standardization and investing‐in‐investing. We conclude by outlining areas for future research. |
| Keywords: | reconstruction; security; procurement; economic geography |
| JEL: | F51 H54 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0226 |
| By: | Laurens, Noémie |
| Abstract: | Critical minerals (CMs) have become a strategic priority for the European Union (EU) amid the green and digital transitions. These resources - including lithium, cobalt, rare earths and nickel - are essential for clean energy technologies, defence systems and electronics. Yet, their processing and refining are highly concentrated in a few countries, leaving the EU especially vulnerable to supply disruptions and fuelling geopolitical tensions. Recent shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have further exposed the fragility of supply chains. At the same time, extracting and trading CMs pose severe environmental and social challenges, from high carbon footprints to local community impacts. EU trade policy is therefore confronted with a trilemma: how to safeguard economic competitiveness, ensure environmental sustainability and enhance security of supply. This policy brief summarises research tracing how the European Commission's trade discourse on CMs has evolved to address the trilemma (Laurens, 2025). Initially, communications focused narrowly on free trade and market access for raw materials. Gradually, sustainability and security considerations entered the narrative. Most recently, the EU has embraced a hybrid framing, simultaneously highlighting economic, environmental and security objectives in its trade discourse on CMs. Although this hybrid discursive approach can help build broader support for CM policies and agreements by appealing to diverse stakeholders, it also demands careful policy design to minimise trade-offs and deliver on its promises. Without credible implementation and genuine integration of economic, environmental and security objectives, hybrid framing risks remaining largely rhetorical and failing to steer policy in practice. Key policy messages: The EU should adopt an integrated approach that effectively addresses economic, sustainability and security goals together while anticipating trade-offs to support more robust CM policies. This requires strong coordination across trade, industry, environment and security-related directorates-general to align CM strategies, avoid policy conflicts and maximise synergies. It may also require short-term economic sacrifices for long-term resilience. Early and meaningful engagement with research institutions, civil society, local communities and industry should move beyond formal consultation and enable genuine co-creation of solutions. Dialogue should begin before key decisions on CMs are finalised, incorporate stakeholder input transparently, and respond to concerns about sustainability and security of supply. CM policies and agreements should provide for binding obligations and concrete implementation plans to ensure environmental and labour protection, local value addition, skills development and technology transfer in resource-rich but economically vulnerable regions. Listening to partner governments and local communities as well as investing in the knowledge of local political, social and environmental contexts are essential for building trust and long-term partnerships. International cooperation on CMs should be strengthened through inclusive arrangements that involve both major consumers and producing countries. Clubs composed primarily of resource-poor but wealthy economies risk being perceived as exclusionary. |
| Keywords: | competitiveness, critical minerals, discourse analysis, European Commission, framing, geopolitics, green transition, security, sustainability, trade |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:idospb:334560 |
| By: | Sillero Illanes Carmen (European Commission - JRC); Rogalski Tomasz; De Cubber Geert; Kowalik Magdalena |
| Abstract: | This report presents the findings of a review of the Podkarpackie aerial drone and robotics ecosystem, conducted between March 2024 and November 2025 in partnership with the Regional Government of Podkarpackie. The study forms part of REGDUALOSA (Regions, Dual Use, Open Strategic Autonomy), an exploratory initiative of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). It examines policy pathways through which Podkarpackie could strengthen its aerial drone sector as a dual-use industry, thereby enhancing regional competitiveness and contributing to European strategic autonomy. The analysis applies an adapted version of the POINT methodology, combining desk research, expert interviews, and stakeholder consultations. Amid increasing geopolitical instability, the European Commission announced the European Drone Defence Initiative in October 2025, aimed at protecting EU borders and reinforcing defence capabilities under the ReArm Europe initiative, which mobilises up to €800 billion. Bordering Ukraine and hosting a well-established aerospace cluster, Podkarpackie is strategically positioned to advance dual-use innovation. Based on the evidence gathered, the report formulates twelve strategic recommendations to improve governance, funding coordination, SME participation, and skills development. It also introduces the concept of Territorial Preparedness as an innovation policy framework that positions regional ecosystems at the forefront of Europe’s resilience, industrial sovereignty, and long-term security. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143402 |
| By: | Yuliia Verheliuk (State Tax University); Mykhailo Hantsiak (State Research Institute for Informatization and Economic Modeling); Liudmyla Didenko (State Tax University); Olha Kliuchka (State Tax University) |
| Abstract: | The article highlights the issue of the impact of public debt on the structure of Ukraine's capital markets, its significance for economic growth, and investment activity. The excessive presence of the state, caused by the level of public debt exceeding permissible limits, creates distortions in the supply of credit resources in the markets. An analysis of the dynamics of Ukraine's public debt has been conducted, including an assessment of its size, structure, and growth rates. Key issues related to the dominant presence of public debt instruments in the capital markets, which crowd out private economic agents, particularly non-financial corporations and households, have been systematized. Two forms of the crowding-out effect have been identified, specifically those manifested through the rise in interest rates and the decline in investment activity due to market saturation with government bonds. The focus is on the second form. The economic consequences of the crowding-out effect for the banking system have been analyzed, particularly the reduction in the share of loans in bank portfolios and the increase in the share of government bonds. Results of econometric modeling of the impact of public debt, bank lending, and the debt-to-GDP ratio on Ukraine's nominal GDP are presented. It has been established that an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio has a significant negative impact on economic development, while bank lending turned out to be an insignificant factor for growth, which can be explained by the effect of crowding out in the markets. The solution to the identified problems and the mitigation of the crowding-out effect lies in the optimization of the country's debt policy, particularly the determination of safe public debt limits and the consideration of the impact of borrowing structure on the capital markets and bank lending trends to support the private sector. |
| Abstract: | L'article met en lumière la question de l'impact de la dette publique sur la structure des marchés de capitaux en Ukraine, son importance pour la croissance économique et l'activité d'investissement. La présence excessive de l'État, due à un niveau de dette publique dépassant les limites admissibles, crée des distorsions dans l'offre de ressources de crédit sur les marchés. Une analyse de la dynamique de la dette publique de l'Ukraine a été réalisée, incluant une évaluation de son volume, de sa structure et de ses taux de croissance. Les principaux problèmes liés à la présence dominante des instruments de dette publique sur les marchés de capitaux, qui évincnent les agents économiques privés (en particulier les entreprises non financières et les ménages), ont été systématisés. Deux formes de l'effet d'éviction ont été identifiées : celle qui se manifeste par la hausse des taux d'intérêt et celle qui se traduit par le recul de l'activité d'investissement en raison de la saturation du marché par les obligations d'État. L'accent est mis sur cette seconde forme. Les conséquences économiques de l'effet d'éviction pour le système bancaire ont été analysées, notamment la diminution de la part des prêts dans les portefeuilles bancaires et l'augmentation de la part des obligations d'État. Les résultats de la modélisation économétrique de l'impact de la dette publique, du crédit bancaire et du ratio dette/PIB sur le PIB nominal de l'Ukraine sont présentés. Il a été établi qu'une augmentation du ratio dette/PIB exerce un impact négatif significatif sur le développement économique, tandis que le crédit bancaire s'est révélé être un facteur non significatif pour la croissance, ce qui s'explique par l'effet d'éviction sur les marchés. La solution aux problèmes identifiés et l'atténuation de l'effet d'éviction passent par l'optimisation de la politique d'endettement du pays, en particulier par la détermination de limites sûres pour la dette publique et par la prise en compte de l'impact de la structure des emprunts sur les marchés de capitaux et les tendances du crédit bancaire, afin de soutenir le secteur privé. |
| Keywords: | public debt, capital markets, crowding-out effect, lending, economic growth, investment activity, government bonds |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05452214 |
| By: | Horovitz, Liviu; Süß, Juliana |
| Abstract: | The current US administration plans to protect the entire territory of the United States against any potential air or missile attack. The focus is on deploying large satellite constellations capable of detecting and intercepting long-range missiles shortly after launch. Even if only a fraction of this ambitious plan is likely to be implemented, it is probable that there will be progress in missile defense during the coming years. For Germany and Europe, the risks and potential benefits - especially with regard to space-based US missile defense - are difficult to assess at the current time. However, Europe can maintain the largest possible room for maneuver by avoiding an open confrontation over Trump's plans. |
| Keywords: | US missile defense, Russia, China, aircraft, drone, Golden dome, Donald Trump, air or missile attack |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpcom:334559 |