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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Zuchowski, David; Maciel, Mateus |
| Abstract: | Most empirical research finds that immigration has no effect on crime. Nevertheless, public concerns about immigration and crime persist, possibly driven by misperceptions. In this paper, we examine how an immigration shock affects crime perception. Specifically, we analyze the impact of the sudden and large-scale arrival of Ukrainian refugees in Poland following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Using unique data on reported safety concerns, we find a persistent decline in perceived risk in regions more affected by the refugee inflow. We provide additional evidence that this effect stems from a shift in local crime perception due to exposure to war refugees, rather than from a reduction in actual safety threats. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Crime Perception, Safety Concerns, Refugee Migration |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 |
| Date: | 2025–11–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127411 |
| By: | Emek Basker; Fariha Kamal |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Russia's 2014 food-import ban on U.S. firms that exported banned products to Russia. Using confidential customs transaction data, we implement triple-difference and dosage-response approaches to identify how firms adjust to the sudden loss of a market. Following the ban, treated firms experienced a 30 percentage-point decrease in the probability of exporting banned food to Russia relative to control firms. However, there is substantial heterogeneity by pre-ban reliance on the Russian market: heavily reliant firms were significantly less likely to survive once the ban was in place, and survivors experienced large reductions in revenue (19%) and total export value (49%) for each standard deviation increase in Russian market exposure. We find evidence of export redirection to neighboring countries, though it is insufficient to offset losses. Any negative impacts on survivors dissipate by five years post-ban. |
| Keywords: | sanctions, import bans, U.S.-Russia trade |
| JEL: | F51 F13 F14 L66 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:25-79 |
| By: | Mazen Diwani (Faculty of Social Science, Northeastern University, London (UK)); Al Mamun (Center for Policy and Economic Research (CPER), Dhaka (Bangladesch)); Sherif Hassan (M&S Research Hub) |
| Abstract: | European energy markets experienced unprecedented disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, exposing long-standing structural vulnerabilities in fossil fuel–dependent systems and threatening progress toward Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7). This study provides a causal analysis of the conflict’s immediate impact on European energy markets using a Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) that leverages the sharp temporal cutoff created by the invasion. Drawing on monthly data for 25 European countries from 2019–2024, we examine four core outcomes: natural gas import volumes, crude oil import volumes, Title Transfer Facility (TTF) natural gas prices, and wholesale electricity prices. Our findings reveal significant supply-side adjustments following the conflict, with natural gas and crude oil imports exhibiting heterogeneous responses depending on pre-war Russian dependency levels. Price dynamics show pronounced but short-lived spikes in TTF gas prices, while electricity market responses are more ambiguous due to bandwidth sensitivity. The results provide empirical evidence of how European energy systems absorbed an exogenous geopolitical shock, highlighting the interplay between supply diversification, market integration, and vulnerability to price volatility. The study contributes to the literature on energy security under geopolitical stress and offers policy-relevant insights into resilience strategies needed to uphold SDG 7 targets during crises. |
| Keywords: | Russia–Ukraine Conflict; Energy Security; Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD); Geopolitical Supply Shocks; European Energy Markets; SDG 7; Sustainability; Market Resilience |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:msrwps:021995 |
| By: | Beiser-Mcgrath, Liam |
| Abstract: | Understanding public support for energy policy is crucial for designing feasible interventions to mitigate climate change and reach net-zero goals. This is particularly the case given the increased salience surrounding energy policy in light of the major disruptions to global energy markets generated by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Combining framing and conjoint experiments, I examine how framing and policy design shape public support for energy policy responses to this crisis in the UK. Results show that the public has strong preferences over specific policy features, supporting investment in renewables, reductions of energy imports from Russia and non-democracies, and policies that shield vulnerable groups. While security framing increases support for energy policy, its effect is smaller than that of policy design, and it has little impact on policy design preferences overall. The findings suggest that substantive policy designs remain crucial for generating public acceptance of energy policy, even in times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis; energy policy; public opinion; green transition; climate change |
| JEL: | Q40 Q50 |
| Date: | 2024–12–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:126124 |
| By: | Dibrova, Anatolii; Dibrova, Larysa; Krylov, Yaroslav |
| Abstract: | Last years Ukraine allocated considerably finance resources for agriculture support according to their loading on the budget. However, amount increase of domestic support does not substantionally influence on the effectiveness indices of agricultural yields. Such information testifies about imperfect nature of the internal support mechanism of Ukrainian agriculture. As the result, domestic support did not become effective stimulus for production quality increase and rise amount of stock - breeding production. In 2008 Ukraine gathered the biggest grain harvest. Increase production did not improve finance results of agriculture and did not reduce stable and dynamic branch development because of negative influence of world finance crises. Unbalanced supply and demand of agricultural production, low buying ability of inhabitants, lack of branch effective mechanism of domestic support caused to complication of price situation in the domestic food market. Also there have been grounded possible economic consequences of influence of duty-tariff protection of agroindustrial market change on the prosperity of such economic agents as agricultural producers, consumers and state on the basis of the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM). |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamo10:90798 |
| By: | Li, Linzhou |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the hedging strategy of China Eastern Airlines (CEA) in 2022, which is affected by the dual crises of COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine war will be examined. Meanwhile, how these external shocks affect the effectiveness of the CEA's hedging will be described. Specifically, the results of the study show that the pandemic weakened the value of hedging. Global oil prices have been in position due to the decline in passenger demand. the CEA hedges lead to realized losses and deterioration of the firm's financial performance. In contrast, the Russia-Ukraine war triggered a significant increase in fuel prices. However, low hedging ratios and poor timing limited its effectiveness. Worse economic scenarios followed. Additionally, this article highlights the dual nature of hedging by analyzing the financial, managerial and policy dimensions. The research shows that it is not seen as an insurance policy only. Different scenarios of demand-side and supply-side shocks can also determine its value. The CEA experience consequently emphasizes the need for more flexible and adaptive risk management frameworks combined with operational strategies to better protect against risks with high future uncertainty. It also provides inspiration for global airlines and policymakers who are seeking to increase corporate resilience in an era of heightened volatility. |
| Keywords: | fuel price hedging; airline risk management; crisis impact; corporate resilience |
| JEL: | R14 J01 N0 |
| Date: | 2025–12–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130836 |
| By: | Drin, Svitlana (Örebro University School of Business); Zhuravlova, Anastasiia (National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy) |
| Abstract: | imely assessment of regional economic activity in Ukraine is severely constrained by institutional and data-related limitations. Official regional gross regional product (GRP) statistics are available only at low frequency, are published with substantial delays, and, in the post-2022 period, are further affected by disruptions to statistical production caused by martial law. At the same time, a growing set of potentially informative regional indicators derived from administrative records and official short-term statistics is available at higher frequencies but only over short and heterogeneous time spans. These features make the direct application of standard regional nowcasting models infeasible. This paper develops a mixed-frequency factor-augmented vector autoregressive framework tailored to the Ukrainian data environment and designed to incorporate short and incomplete regional indicators into the nowcasting of regional GDP. The model explicitly exploits the hierarchical structure of Ukrainian regional statistics by combining information from quarterly and annual measures of economic activity and by linking regional dynamics to national output developments. Short regional indicators are summarised through latent regional factors extracted using missing-data factor estimation techniques that are robust to ragged edges at both the beginning and the end of the sample. The proposed framework is implemented using Ukrainian macro-regional aggregates constructed from official data published by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the treatment of labour market indicators, housing price dynamics, and other short-term variables that exhibit discontinuities or limited availability. A pseudo-real-time nowcasting exercise shows that conditioning regional GDP nowcasts on factor information derived from short regional data improves predictive performance when contemporaneous national GDP estimates are not yet available. Once national aggregates are released, the marginal informational contribution of regional short-term indicators diminishes. Overall, the results demonstrate that mixed-frequency factor-augmented VAR models provide a coherent and empirically viable framework for regional GDP nowcasting in Ukraine. The approach is particularly well suited to data environments 1 characterised by short samples, publication delays, and institutional disruptions, and thus offers a valuable tool for real-time regional economic monitoring in periods of heightened uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | MF-FAVAR; FAVAR; Nowcasting; EMPCA; GRP; Google Trends |
| JEL: | C53 E37 |
| Date: | 2026–01–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2026_001 |
| By: | Manzura Jumaniyazova (TU Munich, TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology, Germany); Cara Ebert (RWI Leibniz Institute for Economic Research, IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Germany); Janina I. Steinert (TU Munich, TUM School of Social Sciences and Technology & TUM School of Medicine and Health, Germany) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how son preference shapes physical growth outcomes of children under the age of five in Central Asia, where cultural preferences favour youngest sons. In a sample of over 40, 000 children aged 0-5 years in five Central Asian countries, we estimate how height-for-age and weight-forage vary by children’s birth order and gender. Our results show a strong birth order gradient in growth of equal size for boys and girls, suggesting unequal intra-household resource allocation consistent with quantity-quality trade-offs. Despite the patriarchal social structure of the included countries, our analysis finds no evidence that preferences to have sons translate into differential growth outcomes by gender. |
| Keywords: | son preference, birth order, child nutrition, Central Asia |
| JEL: | I12 I14 J12 J13 Z13 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aiw:wpaper:46 |
| By: | Mandler, Andreas |
| Abstract: | The present article investigates the influence of local governance on agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan. The Central Asian Republic of Tajikistan is an agricultural country that has been described as a hybrid state, where local governance tends to be dominated by a few powerful actors. Local governance processes do have a strong influence on the agriculture practise and on the exchange of the knowledge. Agricultural advisory services claim various effects in the country. Especially in regions that are dominated by monocultures, advisory services have limited success. Therefore the present article assumes that the nexus of knowledge and innovation in Tajik agriculture is largely dependent on the decision-making of local governance processes. The article outlines the important role of local governance for distribution and use of knowledge in rural areas and emphasizes the context of agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamo10:90806 |
| By: | Primov, Abdulla |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses food security in Uzbekistan, focusing on agricultural diversification, policy reforms, and sustainability challenges. Since gaining independence, Uzbekistan has reduced its reliance on cotton and wheat, expanding production of fruits, vegetables, and livestock to enhance self-sufficiency and improve rural livelihoods. Using secondary data, international reports, and policy analyses, the study identifies progress in reducing hunger and increasing the output of high-value crops. However, constraints such as limited processing infrastructure, water scarcity, dependence on imports, and rural micronutrient deficiencies persist. Recommendations emphasize diversification, technological innovation, and aligning strategies with the Sustainable Development Goals to ensure resilient and sustainable food systems and improved national food security outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Food security, Crop diversification, Agricultural policy, Sustainable development, Uzbekistan |
| JEL: | Q1 Q10 Q18 Q58 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:334548 |
| By: | Gaisina, Sholpan |
| Abstract: | The financing of agricultural producers is one of the most acute problems along the entire scope of economic reforms in Kazakhstan. The issue is: What kind of financial sources could maintain the development of agricultural production? Internal sources such as profit, depreciation capital, and various reserve and insurance funds can not be considered as a key financial base. State financial support of agriculture in Kazakhstan (which plays a significant role in the most developed countries), is episodic in nature, small in size and typically does not reach the recipients. In these circumstances, a potential supplier of financial and investment resources could be a banking system and such non-banking credit institutions as credit cooperatives. Econometric analysis is used to analyze the determinants of credit access. Results suggest that access to subsidized credit has a significant role in determining access to bank credits and investment activity of agricultural enterprises. Major determinants of credit rationing are the size of arable land possessed by the agricultural enterprise and the cost of equipment, expressing an ability of borrower to use them as collateral. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamo10:90801 |
| By: | Wojciech Charemza (University of Leicester); Christian Francq (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris); Radu Lupu (A.S.E. - The Bucharest University of Economic Studies / Academia de Studii Economice din Bucureşti); Svetlana Makarova (ANU College of Science [Canberra] - ANU - Australian National University); Jean-Michel Zakoïan (CREST - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique [Bruz] - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - GENES - Groupe des Écoles Nationales d'Économie et Statistique) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a novel statistical test, the Policy Effects Lagrange Multiplier (PELM) test, to detect stabilization policy effects in the distribution of forecast errors from dynamic financial models. Traditional analyses of policy impact typically rely on explicit policy information or direct intervention data, which are often unavailable or incomplete. In contrast, the proposed PELM test infers policy footprints from the distribution of forecast errors alone. Empirically applied to sovereign bond yield data from 33 countries before the Russian financial crisis of 2014, the test identifies countries showing stabilization policy footprints. Subsequent analysis shows that significant budgetary improvements were observed for years following the crisis in the group of countries where our test statistically confirmed stabilization policies. This confirms the rationale of test foundations and also indicates its predictive properties. Robustness checks further validate these findings across various model specifications and sensitivity scenarios. The proposed PELM test offers policymakers and researchers a powerful tool for evaluating stabilization policies, facilitating better forecasting and assessing policy efficiency in diverse economic contexts without necessitating detailed policy intervention data. |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05430912 |
| By: | Undeland, Asyl; Burns, Tony; Deininger, Klaus W.; Selod, Harris |
| Abstract: | There is a growing recognition that well-defined and enforceable property rights to land are important for a range of economic and social functions. To assess land governance at the country level, the World Bank has elaborated a diagnostic tool based on empirical indicators that aims to identify areas for improvement and that could be used to monitor progress in the land sector. This tool, the Land Governance Assessment Framework (LGAF), was first tested in Peru, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Indonesia and in the Kyrgyz Republic, and is currently being implemented in a number of other countries worldwide. The present paper summarizes the main results obtained from the Kyrgyz pilot to illustrate the case of land governance issues that arise in a post-transition economy formerly influenced by Soviet-style land administration and which made the transition towards private ownership of land over a decade ago. Policy recommendations are derived based on the assessment. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Political Economy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iamo10:90831 |
| By: | Markevich, Andrej M.; Santavirta, Torsten |
| Abstract: | During the Soviet Union's First Five-Year Plan, Western know-how and technology were extensively infused into industry through technical assistance agreements and work contracts with specialists and foreign companies. We study the causal effects of this purposeful state-led policy on labor productivity using the largest single recruitment effort of Western expertise, namely Karelian Technical Aid. This allows us to exploit exogenous variation in transfer of technology within one sector: the wood processing industry. Combining detailed individual-level data on over 5, 000 North American specialists with a novel panel of accounting data on the universe of Soviet enterprises in Karelia and the Northern Region during the interwar period, we document large and persistent causal productivity gains. Important drivers of successful technology absorption were local human capital and the absence of language barriers. |
| Keywords: | Industrial policy, Technology, Technical assistance, Soviet Union |
| JEL: | J24 N64 O14 O3 P2 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:334521 |