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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Goyal, Raghav |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea24:344005 |
| By: | Omidi, Ali |
| Abstract: | One of the significant geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus following the collapse of the Soviet Union was the conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Karabakh issue, which resulted in two wars. The first Karabakh war, lasting from 1988 to 1994, ended with Azerbaijan's defeat. The second war, from September 27, 2020, to November 10, 2020, concluded with a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia, with the cooperation of the Red Cross and other international organizations. Article 9 of the November 10, 2020, agreement stipulated the unblocking of all economic and transport communication axes of interest to the parties in the region. Armenia was obligated to ensure the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles, and goods in both directions and to guarantee the security of transport communications between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The Russian Border Guard Service would oversee control of these transport communications. Iran is concerned that the creation of a corridor through Armenia's 40-kilometer Syunik (or Zangezur) border with Iran could eliminate the shared border between the two countries, potentially diminishing Iran's geopolitical importance regarding transport corridors and bring about new security concerns for Tehran. This article analyzes Iran's perceived geopolitical concerns regarding the implementation of Article 9 of the above-mentioned peace agreement. |
| Keywords: | Karabakh Crisis, Zangezur Corridor, Armenia-Azerbaijan Ceasefire Agreement of November 10, 2020, Iran |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333909 |
| By: | Schuurman, Bart |
| Abstract: | Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin has increasingly used a “hybrid” strategy, supporting its conventional battlefield operations with irregular activities against Kyiv’s European supporters. At their forefront are low-cost and easily replaced “disposable agents” that provide Russia with considerable operational reach as well as plausible deniability. Using a new dataset of 127 disposable agents, this study combines descriptive and inferential statistics with social network analysis to exploratively examine their demographics, roles, deployment patterns, and organisational structure. Findings indicate that disposable agents are predominantly male, mid-thirties, drawn disproportionately from Ukrainian, Russian, Moldovan, and Bulgarian populations, and quite frequently re-used. Networks appear structurally hierarchical and compartmentalised, and seem designed with plausible deniability in mind. However, inconsistent operational security by GRU and FSB officers may have limited Russia’s ability to claim ignorance. The findings provide empirical insight into a covert and significant facet of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy, informing both policy responses to an ongoing threat and further scholarship. |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:d5erf_v1 |
| By: | Jameson, Daisy; Perez, Carina; Claeys, Irene |
| Abstract: | Between 2022 and 2023, Europe experienced an inflationary crisis driven by gas supply disruptions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compounded by postCOVID pandemic supply chain shocks. To support traditional monetary policy tools in combatting inflation, Member States of the European Union deployed a range of so-called ‘unconventional’ fiscal policies aimed at protecting consumers from the increase in energy prices and limiting the pass-through of inflation to the wider economy. These fiscal policy measures were accompanied by a set of structural resilience building measures aimed at addressing the supply disruption in gas markets by improving the EU’s capacity to act in cases of extreme shortages and reducing the risk of future supply shocks. |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 E6 |
| Date: | 2025–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130738 |
| By: | Yuriy Gorodnichenko (University of California, Berkeley); Maurice Obstfeld (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | The monumental task of rebuilding postwar Ukraine requires early planning and identification of growth strategies. The earlier accession of Eastern European countries to the European Union and NATO offers a template that relies on massive foreign direct investment and public structural funds. This approach helps to raise incomes directly and can create a virtuous circle where capital deepening facilitates technological upgrades and repatriation of war refugees, which in turn stimulate more investment. The authors show theoretically that the government can refine this strategy by internalizing positive externalities from having a higher capital stock: Investment in physical capital relaxes borrowing constraints (thus allowing more capital inflows) and raises wages (thus encouraging more Ukrainian refugees to return home). |
| Keywords: | conflict, reconstruction, capital flows, economic growth |
| JEL: | E2 F2 F5 P2 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp26-1 |
| By: | Edward L. Glaeser; Martina Kirchberger; Andrii Parkhomenko |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the rebuilding of Ukrainian cities. We start by outlining key facts about Ukraine and its cities: (i) the country’s population is declining; (ii) there is a shift in demand for housing from east to west; (iii) Kyiv’s advantage is growing; (iv) house prices are rising in Kyiv and western cities, (v) Ukraine’s cities are slow and congested. We then present a theoretical framework for maximizing the benefits of Ukraine’s rebuilding effort to highlight the welfare effects of different allocations of post-war infrastructure. Finally, we consider the cost curve for reconstruction, as determined, in particular, by the cost of materials, labor, the industrial organization of the building industry and public practices in procurement and regulation. We highlight three broad strategies for shifting the cost curve: openness, standardization and investing-in-investing. We conclude by outlining areas for future research. |
| JEL: | F51 H54 O40 R11 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34598 |
| By: | Deininger, Klaus; Ali, Daniel A. |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a rich set of geo-coded administrative and remotely sensed data on more than 1 million agricultural land transactions in Ukraine to explore how informality, size, and recent land reforms affect land prices. Three main findings are highlighted. First, absence of registered rights generates large negative externalities, the size of which plausibly exceeds the cost of registering all land. By contrast, informality of lease contracts is a choice that may enable owners to evade regulatory obstacles that prevent them from renegotiating contracts to obtain more favorable terms. Second, while land market liberalization generated significant indirect benefits, gains are unevenly distributed. Furthermore, competition in sales markets remains limited, pointing to scope for measures—including reducing the transaction costs of selling land and accessing mortgage finance, improving publicity of pending land sales, and use of electronic auctions—to enhance the reforms’ impact on efficiency and equity. Third, size at the parcel, field, and farm levels is associated with higher per hectare prices, pointing to scope for market-based land consolidation and growth of medium-size farms to increase land values and productivity. Achieving this potential will require measures to limit speculative land acquisition and exercise of market power by making local land markets more competitive and using market-based land valuation as a basis for taxing land on a recurrent basis and any capital gains due to land appreciation. |
| Keywords: | International Development |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea25:361025 |
| By: | Haibo Wang |
| Abstract: | The growing economic influence of the BRICS nations requires risk models that capture complex, long-term dynamics. This paper introduces the Bank Risk Interlinkage with Dynamic Graph and Event Simulations (BRIDGES) framework, which analyzes systemic risk based on the level of information complexity (zero-order, first-order, and second-order). BRIDGES utilizes the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance to construct a dynamic network for 551 BRICS banks based on their strategic similarity, using zero-order information such as annual balance sheet data from 2008 to 2024. It then employs first-order information, including trends in risk ratios, to detect shifts in banks' behavior. A Temporal Graph Neural Network (TGNN), as the core of BRIDGES, is deployed to learn network evolutions and detect second-order information, such as anomalous changes in the structural relationships of the bank network. To measure the impact of anomalous changes on network stability, BRIDGES performs Agent-Based Model (ABM) simulations to assess the banking system's resilience to internal financial failure and external geopolitical shocks at the individual country level and across BRICS nations. Simulation results show that the failure of the largest institutions causes more systemic damage than the failure of the financially vulnerable or dynamically anomalous ones, driven by powerful panic effects. Compared to this "too big to fail" scenario, a geopolitical shock with correlated country-wide propagation causes more destructive systemic damage, leading to a near-total systemic collapse. It suggests that the primary threats to BRICS financial stability are second-order panic and large-scale geopolitical shocks, which traditional risk analysis models might not detect. |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2512.20515 |
| By: | Levers, Jimmy Thierry (Patrice Lumumba Peoples' Friendship University of Russia RUDN) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the role of gold in the transformation of the global financial and political order, focusing on its relationship with the U.S. dollar during periods of systemic crisis. It assesses whether gold or the dollar provides a more stable reserve asset by analyzing U.S. debt dynamics, BRICS gold accumulation, and recent digital monetary innovations. The study shows that the persistent rise of U.S. public debt, now exceeding $37 trillion, undermines confidence in the dollar’s sustainability despite its continuing dominance as the global reserve currency. In response, BRICS countries increasingly diversify reserves through gold holdings, a practice that functions not only as financial hedging but also as a political act of sovereignty against U.S. monetary coercion and sanctions. However, the absence of a coherent BRICS monetary strategy limits the bloc’s ability to offer a structured alternative to dollar hegemony. At the same time, the United States seeks to reinforce its monetary dominance through regulatory innovation, notably the GENIUS Act, which anchors stablecoins to the dollar. China, by contrast, promotes its digital renminbi (e-CNY) to gradually reduce reliance on dollar-based infrastructures. Together, these dynamics suggest a contested multipolar order where gold regains importance as a political and monetary anchor. |
| Date: | 2025–12–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:grqza_v1 |
| By: | Ghazaryan, Armen; Kirakosyan, Anna |
| Abstract: | Armenia, strategically positioned at the geopolitical crossroads of East and West, is actively pursuing a transformative agenda to establish itself as a "Digital Bridge Gate." This article examines Armenia's digital infrastructure and burgeoning innovation capabilities, analyzing their potential to foster robust communication and trade pathways with the Global South. Leveraging quantitative metrics from the Network Readiness Index (NRI) 2024, the analysis benchmarks Armenia's performance in ICT development, internet penetration, e-government, and digital trade capacity against key Global South nations and developed economies. The report identifies Armenia's existing digital diplomacy initiatives, such as its cooperation with India on Digital Public Infrastructure and its economic partnership with the UAE. It argues that Armenia's unique blend of advanced human capital in software development and a supportive regulatory environment positions it not merely as a conduit but as a potential "Digital Hub" for South-South digital collaboration. Policy recommendations focus on accelerating infrastructure upgrades, boosting AI research, enhancing digital literacy, and strategically leveraging its digital expertise to deepen ties with the Global South, thereby reinforcing its geopolitical resilience and economic diversification. |
| Keywords: | Digital Gateway-Bridge, Global South, Digital Infrastructure, Innovation, Digital Diplomacy, Armenia |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333911 |
| By: | Khan, Kashif Hasan; Bastanifar, Iman |
| Abstract: | This study employs an economic growth model to assess the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on the economy of the Kyrgyz Republic. Using a time-series Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) approach within an econometric framework, the authors estimated the effects of gross capital formation, labor force, and the BRI-modeled as a dummy variable-over the period 1990 to 2023, using EViews software. The estimated output elasticities for labor, capital, and the BRI were 2.23, 0.008, and 0.22, respectively. These findings suggest that while labor exerts a substantial influence on economic growth, capital formation plays a comparatively minor role. The results also indicate a positive contribution of BRI-related projects to the country's GDP. Given the volatility associated with capital formation in Kyrgyzstan, the study recommends prioritizing labor-intensive BRI initiatives as more viable economic opportunities than capital-intensive ventures. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, BRI, Econometric, Kyrgyz Republic |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:opodis:333910 |