|
on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | Romashchenko, Taras |
| Abstract: | In this working paper I focus on the critical demographic situation in Ukraine caused by the 2022 Russian invasion, which threatens the prospects of post-war recovery and socio- economic revival. By and large, I argue for the need to develop and implement nationwide repatriation programmes targeting Ukrainian refugees based on economic (investment) incentives that may be effective in the context of the country of origin. Drawing on desk research of previous return scenarios in some post-conflict countries and a series of in- depth interviews with Ukrainian refugees in Austria and Germany, I launch into this discussion by outlining a conceptual framework for the voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine. These include: financing the restoration of destroyed housing for refugees and providing them with land plots for independent reconstruction, payment of significant financial assistance upon return, targeted grants to forced migrants for business development in Ukraine, financial incentives enhancing social welfare particularly for families with children and launching powerful investment projects with the participation of foreign capital. Then I deal with potential challenges that could significantly complicate the process of mass re-emigration. These include: the ongoing active hostilities, the conflict of economic interests between Ukraine and host countries (the case of Germany is considered), the socio-economic collapse of the homeland implying the lack of decently paid jobs in the country of origin, as well as inconsistent and often contradictory policy of the Ukrainian authorities towards returnees. I end with a number of policy suggestions which, if taken into account by the Ukrainian government, could increase the likelihood of voluntary return of forced migrants to Ukraine. |
| Keywords: | forced migrants, refugees, economic incentives, investments, repatriation, return, challenges, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:331557 |
| By: | Klaus Weyerstraß; Michael Reiter; Daniel Schmidtner; Hannes Zenz |
| Abstract: | Abstract:In 2021 and particularly in 2022, gas prices rose sharply in Europe due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the previous throttling of Russian gas supply to Western Europe. Because of the merit-order system, this also led to an increase in electricity prices in Austria and in many other EU countries. Since Russian pipeline gas must be replaced by more expensive liquefied natural gas and by more volatile electricity from renewables, energy prices in Europe will also in the future remain higher than before 2021 and higher than in other regions, particularly in the US and in Asia. In Austria companies and households are also confronted with rising fees for the gas and the electricity grids. The higher energy costs undermine Austria’s international competitiveness. Simulations with a panel econometric model in this Policy Brief underline that exports of the Austrian manufacturing industries are negatively affected by higher energy prices. Economic policy should support structural change towards new industries. Permanent subsidies are, however, not an economically sustainable option. |
| Keywords: | Austrian Foreign Trade, trade |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2025:m:11:i:70 |
| By: | Natalia Fabra; Clément Leblanc; Mateus Souza |
| Abstract: | The 2021‐2023 European energy crisis, triggered by the war in Ukraine, led to broad policy interventions in energy markets. In contrast to the retail‐side measures and public transfers implemented elsewhere, Spain and Portugal targeted the wholesale electricity market through the so‐called Iberian solution. We quantify the distributional implications of the crisis and this market intervention on Spanish electricity firms and across consumer groups. We find that the crisis shifted substantial wealth from consumers to generators, with regressive impacts among consumers. Conversely, the policy’s relief was progressive, delivering larger gains to lower- income groups. |
| Keywords: | energy crisis, electricity markets, distributional implications, machine learning. |
| JEL: | L94 D30 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_716 |
| By: | Safiullin, Marat; Sharapov, Azat; Elshin, Leonid; Abdrakhmanova, Diliara; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Усиливающиеся санкционные рестрикциии внешнего порядка и последующие за ними логистические разрывы в поставках импорта формируют риски устойчивого развития национальной и региональных экономических систем РФ. В этой связи крайне важной задачей становится разработка адаптированных моделей исследования перспектив экономического развития в условиях новой зарождающейся макроэкономической повестки. Целью работы является разработка методических подходов к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих их влияние на перспективы промышленного развития регионов. В качестве гипотезы принимается допущение о существенном уровне влияния критического импорта регионов на устойчивость их развития в условиях санкционного давления. По результатам проведенного исследования выделены главные компоненты, определяющие содержательную среду и концептуальную основу для идентификации критического импорта региона; разработан методический инструментарий пространственного анализа взаимосвязи между критически значимыми товарными номенклатурами и экономическим ростом региональных экономических систем в условиях внешних ограничений. Установлено, применительно к регионам Приволжского федерального округа, что для моделирования зависимости объемов промышленного производства от объемов критического импорта (к которому была отнесена в рамках предложенного методического инструментария 21 товарная номенклатура) в наибольшей степени статистически значимо уравнение модели пространственных эффектов со случайными эффектами (RE). Доказано, что снижение поставок валового критического импорта на 1 млн. рублей способствует замедлению объемов промышленного производства в исследуемой региональной группе на 750 тыс. руб. The increasing sanctions restrictions of the external order and the subsequent logistical gaps in the supply of imports pose risks to the sustainable development of the national and regional economic systems of the Russian Federation. In this regard, the development of adapted models for studying the prospects of economic development in the context of a new emerging macroeconomic agenda becomes an extremely important task. The aim of the work is to develop methodological approaches to the identification of critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine their impact on the prospects of industrial development of the regions. As a hypothesis, the assumption is made about the significant level of influence of critical imports of regions on the sustainability of their development under the conditions of sanctions pressure. Based on the results of the study, the main components that determine the content environment and the conceptual framework for identifying critical imports of the region are identified.; A methodological toolkit has been developed for spatial analysis of the relationship between critically important commodity nomenclatures and the economic growth of regional economic systems under external constraints. |
| Keywords: | критический импорт, регион, санкционное давление, промышленное развитие, модели пространственных эффектов, макроэкономические взаимосвязи, панельные данные critical imports, region, sanctions pressure, industrial development, spatial effects models, macroeconomic relationships, panel data |
| JEL: | C10 R10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126484 |
| By: | Safiullin, Marat; Sharapov, Azat; Elshin, Leonid; Abdrakhmanova, Diliara; Mikhalevich, Polina |
| Abstract: | Усиливающиеся процессы деглобализации, включающие в себя, в том числе, наращивание механизмов реализации внешнего давления как инструмент обеспечения глобальной конкурентоспособности отдельных стран, в значительной степени возвышают актуальность вопроса изучения адаптивных направлений реализации политики импортозамещения. К важнейшим из них необходимо отнести комплексный анализ импортозависимости с позиции определения наиболее критических групп товарных номенклатур, поставляемых в регионы. Данный подход позволит не только определить степень уязвимости региональных экономических систем к ограничениям поставок импорта критически значимой продукции, но и разработать инструментарий, позволяющий оценить влияние локализации импорта на устойчивость экономического развития регионов. Решению этой задачи и посвящена настоящая статья, целью которой является разработка методического инструментария к идентификации критически значимых товарных номенклатур, импортируемых из-за рубежа, и разработка моделей, определяющих взаимосвязь критического импорта и экономического роста регионов. Методическую основу исследования определяет инструментарий идентификации критического импорта в рамках трехступенчатой его аутентификации: объемы импорта, доля его участия в создании добавленной стоимости конечного продукта региона, страновая принадлежность. Полученные объемно-стоимостные параметры формируют основу для проведения пространственного анализа панельных данных, определяющего влияние критического импорта на перспективы экономического развития. Объектом исследования выступают субъекты Север-Западного федерального округа РФ. Результатом исследования являются выявленные товарные группы, формирующие каркас критического импорта для регионов СЗФО, а также степень их влияния на промышленный рост субъектов Север-Западного федерального округа. The increasing processes of deglobalization, which include, among other things, increasing the mechanisms for implementing external pressure as a tool for ensuring the global competitiveness of individual countries, significantly raise the urgency of studying adaptive directions for the implementation of import substitution policy.This article is devoted to solving this problem, the purpose of which is to develop methodological tools for identifying critically important commodity nomenclatures imported from abroad, and to develop models that determine the relationship between critical imports and regional economic growth. The methodological basis of the study is determined by the tools for identifying critical imports within the framework of its three-stage authentication: import volumes, the share of its participation in creating added value of the final product of the region, and country affiliation. The result of the study is the identified commodity groups that form the framework of critical imports for the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, as well as the degree of their influence on the industrial growth of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District. |
| Keywords: | критический импорт, региональные экономические системы, устойчивость экономической динамики, промышленное производство, санкционное давление, пространственный анализ панельных данных, макроэкономические взаимосвязи. critical imports, regional economic systems, sustainability of economic dynamics, industrial production, sanctions pressure, spatial analysis of panel data, macroeconomic relationships. |
| JEL: | C1 R1 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:126479 |
| By: | Aboudou, Rachidi; Tabe-Ojong, Martin Paul Jr.; Gebrekidan, Bisrat; Yabi, Jacob Afouda |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukraine war have been very damaging for many developing countries, rolling back many years of efforts to address poverty and food insecurity. These shocks impose immense constraints on fertilizer use and various staple value chains including rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, and millet, which are heavily consumed in many parts of Africa. In this paper, we examine the implications of these shocks on different aspects of fertilizer use and cereal consumption in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Relying on different datasets and employing both time-series and panel data estimators, we show that both shocks are positively correlated with increases in fertilizer and cereal prices (maize, rice, and wheat). These insights extend to the consumption of these cereal which are important staple for addressing food insecurity. We observe price increases for urea, DAP, Phosphate, and superphosphate. These price increases could explain the reduction in fertilizer consumption in the continent through their impact on accessibility and affordability. The Russian-Ukraine War seems to have a more pronounced association with the increase in fertilizer prices. We also underscore some nuanced heterogeneity based on geographical classifications: Central, East, and West Africa, suggesting the heterogeneous implication of shocks on both fertilizer and cereal prices, as well as fertilizer and cereal consumption. Generally, the COVID-19 pandemic caused more pronounced price increases for most commodities compared to the Russia-Ukraine war. The variability in impacts across different commodities shows the importance of understanding the specific supply chain and market dynamics of each commodity in response to global disruptions. |
| Keywords: | Food Security and Poverty, Political Economy |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes025:356796 |
| By: | Richard Grieveson (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Ioannis Gutzianas (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Branimir Jovanović (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Michael Landesmann (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Olga Pindyuk (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study identifies the minimum economic and institutional conditions that candidate countries must meet to ensure macroeconomic stability, sustainable growth, and effective integration into the EU, under a politically accelerated enlargement process. In the area of external accounts, successful past accessions managed current account deficits through FDI into tradable sectors, while real effective exchange rate misalignments and FDI into non-tradables led to post-accession instability. Key reforms include building export capacity, targeting FDI to tradables, aligning wages with productivity, and reducing debt-financed imbalances. On fiscal policy, while fiscal discipline is essential, overly conservative approaches can hinder growth. Countries with high debt-to-GDP ratios at accession faced prolonged austerity. Reforms should focus on fiscal sustainability, growth-oriented spending, tax base expansion, and procurement transparency. Labour market challenges include depopulation, low productivity, and high poverty. Effective employment policies, migration strategies, regional equity, and education-labour market alignment are essential. Institutional quality remains a critical barrier. Weak rule of law, corruption, and governance backsliding threaten accession prospects and must be addressed before accession. The study concludes that a focused set of pre-accession ‘must haves’ can guide enlargement, supported by adapted EU tools to mitigate risks and foster convergence. |
| Keywords: | EU Enlargement, EU Accession, Candidate Countries, Ukraine, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | F02 F15 F55 P52 O52 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:pnotes:pn:102 |
| By: | Khakimov, Parviz; Ashurov, Timur |
| Abstract: | This study examines recent agriculture sector development trends in Khatlon region of Tajikistan and its contribution to development of the sector between 2010 and 2021. The findings of the study show that the development of the crops sector in the region was strongly intensive, except sluggish intensive growth for cotton and extensive growth for potato. Further deep dive is needed to figure out the source of growth, however, lack of disaggregated data prevents us from doing so in this analysis. To understand the drivers of recent growth the farmers survey needs to be conducted. Unlike the crop sector, the livestock sector in Khatlon region has experienced mainly extensive growth, with surge up in cattle and small ruminants’ population rather than productivity increase. The livestock sector faces several challenges such as severe degradation of pastures due to poor pasture management system, and increased pressure on pasture due to rapidly growing livestock numbers. In addition, the sector is affected by climate change and at the same time accelerates the ongoing process of climate change due to greenhouse gases, especially methane emissions. In sum, the region now plays a vital role in meeting Tajikistan's food security needs and income generation for rural households, however, further sustainable growth of the sector requires addressing challenges, increasing investments into the sector and promoting CSA practices (Table 1A in Appendix). |
| Keywords: | agriculture; crops; development; food security; Tajikistan; Middle East |
| Date: | 2025–05–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cenawp:174596 |
| By: | Oscar Claveria (AQR-IREA, University of Barcelona); Petar Soric (University of Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | Recent energy tensions caused by conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have added to the pressure that global warming exerts for an energy transition towards low-carbon energy sources. This study combines two time series approaches with the aim of delving deeper into the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth and to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, using information from 20 European countries between 2007 and 2021. Overall, the obtained results suggest the existence of a N-shaped nexus between emissions and income per capita. Additionally, we evaluated stability of this nexus and the potential existence of an asymmetric adjustment. In most countries we find asymmetries in the adjustment of emissions to positive and negative changes in income, but not so much in economic complexity. However, notable differences are observed between countries, which could be indicating their differentiated phase in the EKC curve |
| Keywords: | economic growth; economic complexity; environmental degradation; greenhouse gas emissions; Europe JEL classification: C38; C55; O44; Q20; Q50 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aqr:wpaper:202509 |
| By: | Eiji Fujii |
| Abstract: | Countries routinely participate in intergovernmental forums such as the G7, G20, BRICS, and MIKTA. These informal institutions—unlike formal bodies such as the EU and WTO—lack permanent administrative structures, operate through rotating presidencies, and do not issue legally binding commitments. Although often overlooked as drivers of global trade, their formation and evolution embody underlying structural shifts in the world economy. Using data for over 200 countries spanning 1994-2023, this study introduces informal institutions as a distinct determinant of trade within the gravity framework. We find that BRICS exerts trade-facilitating effects comparable to those of formal agreements such as regional trade agreements and WTO accession. This highlights a novel channel of international integration beyond legal commitments. |
| Keywords: | informal institutions, international trade, gravity model, BRICS, MIKTA, G20, G7 |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 O19 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12268 |
| By: | Tshepiso Mahura (North-West University); Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku (North-West University); Daniel Metsileng (North-West University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the dependency structure among BRICS market returns using a Copula-based ARMA-EGARCH modelling framework. The stationarity tests using ADF and PP confirmed that the closing prices are non-stationary at level but stationary after first differencing. Pearson correlation and scatter plots indicate strong positive linear relationships among the markets, suggesting co-movement. Given the evidence of tail dependence, copula models are employed to capture both upper and lower tail dependencies. ARMA models were selected based on AIC, and diagnostic tests confirmed their adequacy. The hybrid ARMA-EGARCH(1, 1) model was used to model volatility, capturing both positive and negative leverage effects across different markets. Residuals from these models were transformed into uniform distributions and used to fit four copulas, namely, Student-t, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel. Results showed that the Student-t copula best captures the dependence structure, with significant dependence parameters for all pairs. Lower and upper tail dependencies were captured by Clayton and Gumbel copulas respectively, indicating asymmetric behaviour during market extremes. The findings suggest strong financial integration among BRICS markets, limiting diversification benefits and increasing contagion risk. The study recommends the use of flexible distributions and more advanced copula models like Joe-Clayton in future research to enhance Value-at-Risk estimation and risk management practices. |
| Keywords: | BRICS market returns, Copula, Dependency structure, Hybrid models, Volatility |
| JEL: | C10 C52 F30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:15316773 |