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on Confederation of Independent States |
| By: | McQuade, Peter; Pancaro, Cosimo; Reghezza, Alessio; Avril, Pauline |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether geopolitical risk causes a reduction in bank lending. In particular, it focuses on how the increase in geopolitical risk stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine affected euro area bank credit supply. Matching granular supervisory and credit register data and using a panel difference-in-difference approach, the results show that banks with larger exposure to the increase in geopolitical risk cut lending significantly more than those with smaller exposure. Banks with greater exposure raised impairments despite exhibiting similar levels of credit distress to their peers, suggesting that the fall in lending was driven by uncertainty. Moreover, firms that were heavily reliant on banks with high exposure to geopolitical risk were unable to fully substitute this shortfall in credit by borrowing more from less affected banks, which significantly constrained firm investment and employment. JEL Classification: G1, G21, E22 |
| Keywords: | banks, financial markets, uncertainty |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20253143 |
| By: | Hett, Valeriia (SFM - Swiss Forum for Migration and Population Studies) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland activated temporary collective protection (Status S) in March 2022 to respond to the large-scale displacement caused by the war in Ukraine. This exceptional measure, aligned with the European Union’s Temporary Protection Directive, provided immediate access to residence, employment, education and social support, while deliberately remaining temporary in nature. However, the ongoing and protracted nature of the conflict requires consideration of future steps beyond temporary protection. This article develops a conceptual two-stage model adapted to Swiss context. Phase 1 (2025-2027) focuses on facilitating gradual transitions into existing residence categories, which will strength integration and reduce the risks of institutionalised temporariness. Phase 2 (from 2027 onwards) underscores voluntary, safe and dignified return, where possible, in addition to residual protection for those who cannot be repatriated. The proposed framework aims to reconcile humanitarian obligations, integration policies and long-term sustainability. |
| Date: | 2025–10–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gh6b3_v2 |
| By: | Jambor, Attila; Varga, Agnes Jeneyne |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to analyse the impact of the triple crises on food security in the Western Balkans. It follows a two-fold approach. On the one hand, the food security situation in the different countries is analysed quantitatively using descriptive statistics of the main indicators on a time-series basis and the main determinants of food security. On the other hand, the results of the semi-structured interviews with local experts are presented in order to understand the reasons for the changing patterns of food security. Our findings suggest that food security and self-sufficiency are stable in most cases, while a large number of small farms, rural depopulation, climate change and harmonisation of food systems were cited as the main challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic does not appear to have seriously impacted food security, although it has certainly accelerated the restructuring within the agri-food sectors. However, the war in Ukraine has had a greater impact, particularly in terms of high price inflation and rising prices for agricultural inputs. |
| Keywords: | Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes024:355318 |
| By: | Klein, Margarete; Stewart, Susan |
| Abstract: | Seit 2022 hat Russlands Führung ihre Aktivitäten zur patriotischen und militärischen Erziehung von Kindern und Jugendlichen noch einmal massiv ausgeweitet. Das gilt sowohl für verpflichtende Maßnahmen als auch für Freiwilligenangebote. Trotz einer vordergründigen Vielfalt an Programmen und beteiligten Akteuren stehen diese unter strikter Kontrolle des Kremls. Dessen Ziel ist, die nächste Generation im Sinne der politischen Führung zu erziehen, loyalen Nachwuchs für Regime und Militär zu rekrutieren und kritische Individuen frühzeitig zu identifizieren. Die Maßnahmen erfassen eine wachsende Zahl von Kindern und Jugendlichen und reichen mittlerweile bis in die Kindergärten hinein. Die Betroffenen reagieren darauf mit einer Mischung aus Begeisterung, Indifferenz und Opportunismus. Offener Widerstand ist aufgrund eines hohen Konformitätsdrucks und des repressiven Charakters des Regimes nur punktuell festzustellen. |
| Keywords: | Russische Föderation, militärisch-patriotische Erziehung, Wladimir Putin, Russlands Krieg gegen die Ukraine, Freiwillige des Sieges (wolontjory pobedy), Jugendarmee (junarmija), Bewegung der Ersten (dwischenije perwych), Grundlagen russländischer Staatlichkeit, Gespräche über Wichtiges, Sarnitsa 2.0 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:331228 |
| By: | Vsevolod Nikolaiev |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the report is to demonstrate the way out of difficult situation in private housing in multi-apartment buildings, which is caused in Ukraine by massive destructions and migration of population. We have proposed financial mechanisms of external investments in new buildings and reconstruction of damaged housing stock, further sustainable provision of housing in cities based on the transformation and diversification of ownership models. Situation analysis. As of 2020, 93.3% of urban families in Ukraine lived in their own dwellings (66.9% in apartment buildings); 5.7% rented them from private owners, and only 1% used municipal or company housing as tenants. The state policy and legislation on housing ownership and management were focused mainly on joint homeownership based on a distorted and inefficient national condominium model: without a land plot, state registration and reflection of houses as real estates in accounting. The low incomes of citizens did not allow them, as owners, to make decisions that would ensure the proper maintenance and repair of their houses. In the context of massive destruction, these and other shortcomings of the ownership and management model, like actual absence of residents of the destroyed buildings, became an obstacle to organising investments in their reconstruction. That is why financial schemes for public and donor’s funding for the reconstruction of private housing are currently strictly limited. Methodology. Our previous long-term research on the renovation of housing of inefficient owners was based on a comprehensive systematic analysis of the historical causes, legislative shortcomings, technical and economic problems of joint ownership and management of buildings. This has actually allowed us to be prepared to justify non-standard solutions by linking the reconstruction of destroyed housing with the need to transform the forms and relations of ownership in apartment buildings. Proposals. Taking into account heavy financial situation of households and their need of repaired or new dwellings, it is proposed to expand significantly the segment of municipal social housing, as opposed to preserving private property model. European and global practice has tested the model of using loans to build new municipal buildings and transfer them as assets to municipal housing companies for use as rented apartments. However, to speed up the resettlement of families, we propose to use loans to buy out cheaper apartments in already completed or unfinished buildings. This will mean that municipal housing companies will own and manage not only entire buildings, but also individual apartments in jointly owned buildings. Our next completely innovative proposal is to introduce also a model of external municipal or private investment in the restoration and reconstruction of jointly owned (condominium) properties with the preliminary transformation of owners' associations into business companies with investor participation. In such a model, the municipal housing company will also own shares of corporate rights, and the former apartment owners will pay the investor rent in proportion to his contribution. Practical implications. Our proposals are being discussed in professional circles in Ukraine with the participation of investors and government officials. Familiarisation with them by a wide foreign professional community should help to improve and implement an effective diversified model of sustainable housing provision. |
| Keywords: | company; housing; Property; Reconstruction |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2025_61 |
| By: | Salahodjaev, Raufhon |
| Abstract: | The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between globalization and life satisfaction in Europe and Central Asia over the period of 2005 to 2018. Using the KOF index of globalization, we documented the non-linear (U-shaped) relationship between globalization and subjective wellbeing. Once we account for endogeneity and simultaneity with the aid of a two-step GMM estimator, the turning point is 66 points, which is approximate to the levels of globalization in Albania in 2018. We also report that the sub-dimension of globalization (political, economic and social) are also non-linearly related to life satisfaction. The results are robust to a number of tests. |
| Keywords: | globalization, life satisfaction, Europe and Central Asia |
| JEL: | F6 F60 |
| Date: | 2025–05–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:125959 |
| By: | Elveren, Adem Yavuz |
| Abstract: | Introduction: Global military expenditure increased to about $2.4 trillion in 2023, basically driven by the Russia-Ukraine war and other geopolitical tensions (SIPRI 2024). According to SIPRI, the 6.8% rise in total military spending was the largest since 2009. As a result, the global military burden reached 2.3% of world GDP, with governments allocating an average of 6.9% of their budgets to defense. Policymakers frequently frame high levels of military spending as indispensable for maintaining deterrence and protecting national interests, thereby legitimizing disproportionate defense budgets. However, higher levels of military expenditure do not necessarily translate into greater peace or stability. On the contrary, they tend to intensify arms races and escalate geopolitical rivalries, thereby heightening the likelihood of conflict (UN 2025). A growing body of empirical evidence indicates that military spending crowds out resources vital for social investment, poverty reduction, quality and extensive education and healthcare, gender equality, infrastructure development, and environmental protection (Elgin et al. 2022; UN Women 2022; Elveren 2025a). (...) |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cessdp:330668 |
| By: | Tatyana Deryugina; Alminas Zaldokas; Anastassia Fedyk; Yuriy Gorodnichenko; James Hodson; Ilona Sologoub |
| Abstract: | We develop a novel, scalable method for assessing the quality of public procurement systems using standard administrative data. Our approach compares the distribution of procurement opportunities to the distribution of contract awards across firms. We first derive a simple theoretical benchmark that relates the expected distribution of contract value winning firms, measured as a Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI), to the distribution of auction values, measured as a respective HHI, and the number of winning firms. Significant deviations of winning firms' HHI from this benchmark indicate potential governance failures such as corruption or unchecked collusion. Our method requires no subjective input, is transparent and reproducible, and allows for meaningful comparisons across countries, industry sectors, and over time. We use procurement data from Ukraine and EU member states in 2018-2021 to assess the performance of five large sectors. Results indicate that Ukraine's procurement performance in four of the five sectors is comparable to many other European countries. However, Ukraine's construction sector consistently displays the largest excess concentration among all countries considered, consistent with anecdotal evidence of corruption in this sector. Overall, with minimal data requirements, our method offers a practical tool for cross-sector and cross-country assessment of procurement systems. |
| Keywords: | procurement, corruption, Ukraine, collusion |
| JEL: | D73 L10 H11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12250 |
| By: | Nourhaine Nefzi (COGI); Abir Abid (COGI) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to dig deeper into understanding the exchange rates and uncertainty dependence. Using the novel Baker et al. (2020)'s daily Twitter Uncertainty Index and BRICS exchange rates, we investigate their extreme tail dependence within an original time-varying copula framework. Our analysis makes several noteworthy results. Evidence for Indian, Russian and South African currencies indicates an elliptical copulas' dominance implying neither asymmetric features nor extreme movements in their dependence structure with the global economic uncertainty. Importantly, Brazilian and Chinese currencies tail dependence is upward trending suggesting a safe-haven role in times of high global economic uncertainty including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. In such circumstances, these markets offer opportunities to significant gains through portfolio diversification. |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2511.05315 |
| By: | Schneider, Jonas |
| Abstract: | Systematisches Nachdenken darüber, wie ein "kalter" militärischer Wettbewerb (peacetime military competition) zum eigenen Vorteil gestaltet werden kann, ist im deutschen Regierungsapparat nicht institutionalisiert. Auch deshalb ist es in Deutschland unterentwickelt. Mit Russland befindet sich Deutschland aber in einem solchen Wettbewerb, und das dürfte so bleiben. In den USA wurden auf der Suche nach Ansätzen, um militärische Kräfteverhältnisse zulasten von Gegnern zu ändern, seit den 1970er Jahren sogenannte "Net Assessments" einflussreich: Analysen, die vielfältige Erkenntnisse einbeziehen - von historischen Traumata über industrielle Engpässe bis zu bürokratischen Dysfunktionalitäten - und die darauf abzielen, Schwachstellen des Gegners im militärischen Wettbewerb zu ermitteln. Damit zeigen sie Wege auf, wie diese Schwächen ausgenutzt werden können. Für Deutschlands strategische Aufstellung gegenüber Russland scheint Net Assessment ein vielversprechendes Instrument zu sein. |
| Keywords: | Net Assessment, militärischer Wettbewerb, "kalter" militärischer Wettbewerb, peacetime military competition, militärische Kräfteverhältnisse, Schwachstellen des Gegners ermitteln, Asymmetrien ausnutzen, wettbewerbsorientierte Strategien, competitive strategies, USA, Office of Net Assessments, ONA, Sowjetunion, Ost-West-Konflikt, Russland, Deutschland, Bundeswehr |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swpakt:331232 |
| By: | Karen Davtyan (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain); Adel R. Kalozdi (Departament of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of climate- and energy-related (green) communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the performance of renewable and fossil-based energy sectors. Using a sentence-embedding natural language processing method, we identify 247 ECB speeches from 2015 to 2024 that explicitly reference both climate and energy themes, categorize them, and compute a green score for each. The analysis reveals prominent topics of climate and financial risk, and monetary policy and economic conditions, along with consistently positive and trust-related emotional cues. We then use high-frequency identification to estimate the effect of ECB green speeches on the return differential between the green and the brown energy sectors. The results show that such ECB communication positively and significantly affects sectoral relative returns, highlighting the communicative role of the ECB in influencing the relative performance of green and brown energy sectors. The results remain robust across a series of sensitivity analyses. The effect does not change significantly with respect to the outbreak of the Russian–Ukrainian war or the ECB communication topics. |
| Keywords: | central bank communication, ECB green speeches, text analysis, high-frequency identification, energy sectors |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2515 |